Glen Peters
@glenpeters.bsky.social
Energy, emissions, & climate
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
https://cicero.oslo.no/en/employees/glen-peters
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
https://cicero.oslo.no/en/employees/glen-peters
Pinned
📢Global Carbon Budget 2025📢
Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength.
The key findings are covered in two reports this year:
* ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
* Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
1/
Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength.
The key findings are covered in two reports this year:
* ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
* Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
1/
The International Energy Agency (IEA) got plenty of critique for bringing back the Current Policies Scenario (CPS).
I think it was a good idea to bring back. Let me explain why...
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I think it was a good idea to bring back. Let me explain why...
1/
November 17, 2025 at 8:53 AM
The International Energy Agency (IEA) got plenty of critique for bringing back the Current Policies Scenario (CPS).
I think it was a good idea to bring back. Let me explain why...
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I think it was a good idea to bring back. Let me explain why...
1/
The most common question I was asked by journalists: "was there anything that surprised you"?
"Well, no, because I work on this everyday".
Now I have found the surprise... Carbonation, the uptake of CO2 in cement, has turned a corner because cement production is dropping!
"Well, no, because I work on this everyday".
Now I have found the surprise... Carbonation, the uptake of CO2 in cement, has turned a corner because cement production is dropping!
November 15, 2025 at 8:07 AM
The most common question I was asked by journalists: "was there anything that surprised you"?
"Well, no, because I work on this everyday".
Now I have found the surprise... Carbonation, the uptake of CO2 in cement, has turned a corner because cement production is dropping!
"Well, no, because I work on this everyday".
Now I have found the surprise... Carbonation, the uptake of CO2 in cement, has turned a corner because cement production is dropping!
My fear is scientists will just sit by & be complicit. Saying you are for 1.5C or net zero is not ambition.
If rich country GHG or CO2 emissions are not dropping at >5% per year, they are not remotely consistent with 1.5C, nor net zero in a reasonable time frame.
Scientists need to point this out.
If rich country GHG or CO2 emissions are not dropping at >5% per year, they are not remotely consistent with 1.5C, nor net zero in a reasonable time frame.
Scientists need to point this out.
Rich, historical polluter countries that had the highest legal responsibility to take climate action failed. And now some of these same countries are speaking about '1.5C ambition'. What a charade
November 15, 2025 at 8:03 AM
My fear is scientists will just sit by & be complicit. Saying you are for 1.5C or net zero is not ambition.
If rich country GHG or CO2 emissions are not dropping at >5% per year, they are not remotely consistent with 1.5C, nor net zero in a reasonable time frame.
Scientists need to point this out.
If rich country GHG or CO2 emissions are not dropping at >5% per year, they are not remotely consistent with 1.5C, nor net zero in a reasonable time frame.
Scientists need to point this out.
Reposted by Glen Peters
The 2025 update of the Global Carbon Budget is out.
While fossil CO2 emissions rise again and carbon sinks are weakened by climate change, deforestation emissions are down and many countries decarbonise their energy.
No global emissions peak yet though.
theconversation.com/the-worlds-c...
While fossil CO2 emissions rise again and carbon sinks are weakened by climate change, deforestation emissions are down and many countries decarbonise their energy.
No global emissions peak yet though.
theconversation.com/the-worlds-c...
The world’s carbon emissions continue to rise. But 35 countries show progress in cutting carbon
In 2025 the world has fallen short, again, of peaking and reducing its fossil fuel use. But there are many countries on a path to greener energy.
theconversation.com
November 14, 2025 at 10:31 AM
The 2025 update of the Global Carbon Budget is out.
While fossil CO2 emissions rise again and carbon sinks are weakened by climate change, deforestation emissions are down and many countries decarbonise their energy.
No global emissions peak yet though.
theconversation.com/the-worlds-c...
While fossil CO2 emissions rise again and carbon sinks are weakened by climate change, deforestation emissions are down and many countries decarbonise their energy.
No global emissions peak yet though.
theconversation.com/the-worlds-c...
Reposted by Glen Peters
For the fossil CO₂ component, we also have revisions, which are documented in the standalone report here: zenodo.org/records/1741...
November 14, 2025 at 1:26 PM
For the fossil CO₂ component, we also have revisions, which are documented in the standalone report here: zenodo.org/records/1741...
It is worth a reminder that each year we revised the carbon budget in all years, not just the last year
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-fos...
This year we had a rather big adjustment in land-use change emissions, including the change in carbon density due to CO2 fertilisation, etc.
rdcu.be/ePDDS
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-fos...
This year we had a rather big adjustment in land-use change emissions, including the change in carbon density due to CO2 fertilisation, etc.
rdcu.be/ePDDS
November 14, 2025 at 1:14 PM
It is worth a reminder that each year we revised the carbon budget in all years, not just the last year
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-fos...
This year we had a rather big adjustment in land-use change emissions, including the change in carbon density due to CO2 fertilisation, etc.
rdcu.be/ePDDS
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-fos...
This year we had a rather big adjustment in land-use change emissions, including the change in carbon density due to CO2 fertilisation, etc.
rdcu.be/ePDDS
"I would want to see emissions going down for several years before I would stand up on a building top and shout that emissions have peaked"
Please take note of my wise words...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Please take note of my wise words...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
November 14, 2025 at 12:48 PM
"I would want to see emissions going down for several years before I would stand up on a building top and shout that emissions have peaked"
Please take note of my wise words...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Please take note of my wise words...
www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Reposted by Glen Peters
"...it's virtually impossible not to cross 1.5 degrees now. It's just not possible to turn the ship around so fast"
@glenpeters.bsky.social
Listen now: overshootpod.com
@glenpeters.bsky.social
Listen now: overshootpod.com
November 14, 2025 at 9:14 AM
"...it's virtually impossible not to cross 1.5 degrees now. It's just not possible to turn the ship around so fast"
@glenpeters.bsky.social
Listen now: overshootpod.com
@glenpeters.bsky.social
Listen now: overshootpod.com
The thing that amazes me most about this figure is not the progress that we made from the blue line "where we were going", but that everyone seems to be having heart failure that the IEA made a scenario where emissions are flat, instead of falling 20% in 25 years...
www.axios.com/2025/11/13/c...
www.axios.com/2025/11/13/c...
November 14, 2025 at 8:51 AM
The thing that amazes me most about this figure is not the progress that we made from the blue line "where we were going", but that everyone seems to be having heart failure that the IEA made a scenario where emissions are flat, instead of falling 20% in 25 years...
www.axios.com/2025/11/13/c...
www.axios.com/2025/11/13/c...
If CO2 emissions go to zero in 2050 (top), the sinks (green) will bring atmospheric CO2 back down (middle), & temperature will stabalise at ~1.7°C (bottom).
Going to zero today will keep us <1.5°C
Constant emissions leads to 2.6°C, rising rapidly thereafter.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Going to zero today will keep us <1.5°C
Constant emissions leads to 2.6°C, rising rapidly thereafter.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
November 14, 2025 at 8:23 AM
If CO2 emissions go to zero in 2050 (top), the sinks (green) will bring atmospheric CO2 back down (middle), & temperature will stabalise at ~1.7°C (bottom).
Going to zero today will keep us <1.5°C
Constant emissions leads to 2.6°C, rising rapidly thereafter.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Going to zero today will keep us <1.5°C
Constant emissions leads to 2.6°C, rising rapidly thereafter.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Kina er verdens største utslippsnasjon, verdens største forbruker av kull og verdens største utbygger av fornybar energi. Kina er både verst og best. Så hva er status for Kinas klimaomstilling?
Hør og lær:
www.energiogklima.no/podkast/stat...
Hør og lær:
www.energiogklima.no/podkast/stat...
November 14, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Kina er verdens største utslippsnasjon, verdens største forbruker av kull og verdens største utbygger av fornybar energi. Kina er både verst og best. Så hva er status for Kinas klimaomstilling?
Hør og lær:
www.energiogklima.no/podkast/stat...
Hør og lær:
www.energiogklima.no/podkast/stat...
Reposted by Glen Peters
📢Global Carbon Budget 2025📢
Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength.
The key findings are covered in two reports this year:
* ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
* Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
1/
Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength.
The key findings are covered in two reports this year:
* ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
* Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
1/
November 13, 2025 at 7:07 AM
📢Global Carbon Budget 2025📢
Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength.
The key findings are covered in two reports this year:
* ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
* Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
1/
Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength.
The key findings are covered in two reports this year:
* ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
* Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
1/
Reposted by Glen Peters
Published today in Earth System Science Data: The Global Carbon Budget 2025
essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
Global Carbon Budget 2025
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to bette...
essd.copernicus.org
November 13, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Published today in Earth System Science Data: The Global Carbon Budget 2025
essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
Reposted by Glen Peters
🚨 The Global Carbon Budget 2025 has just been released and I actively contributed for the first time 😍
📢Global Carbon Budget 2025📢
Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength.
The key findings are covered in two reports this year:
* ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
* Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
1/
Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength.
The key findings are covered in two reports this year:
* ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
* Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
1/
November 13, 2025 at 1:14 PM
🚨 The Global Carbon Budget 2025 has just been released and I actively contributed for the first time 😍
One thing that worries me about the fossil CO2 emissions growth is "others". Which countries are driving growth in others?
Let's have a look.
Figure: robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2025/
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Let's have a look.
Figure: robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2025/
1/
November 13, 2025 at 12:27 PM
One thing that worries me about the fossil CO2 emissions growth is "others". Which countries are driving growth in others?
Let's have a look.
Figure: robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2025/
1/
Let's have a look.
Figure: robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2025/
1/
Reposted by Glen Peters
In the latest Global Carbon Budget, the estimate of the ocean carbon sink was increased by 0.8 Gt of CO₂ due to methodological changes.
Each mCDR deployment aims to remove a tiny fraction of that, so if people think we have the methodology to do proper MRV for mCDR right now, they're delusional. 🌊
Each mCDR deployment aims to remove a tiny fraction of that, so if people think we have the methodology to do proper MRV for mCDR right now, they're delusional. 🌊
November 13, 2025 at 12:03 PM
In the latest Global Carbon Budget, the estimate of the ocean carbon sink was increased by 0.8 Gt of CO₂ due to methodological changes.
Each mCDR deployment aims to remove a tiny fraction of that, so if people think we have the methodology to do proper MRV for mCDR right now, they're delusional. 🌊
Each mCDR deployment aims to remove a tiny fraction of that, so if people think we have the methodology to do proper MRV for mCDR right now, they're delusional. 🌊
Reposted by Glen Peters
Die Ausgabe 2025 des Global Carbon Budget wurde heute veröffentlicht. Die Emissionen aus fossilen Quellen werden voraussichtlich im Jahr 2025 um weitere 1,1% steigen.
November 13, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Die Ausgabe 2025 des Global Carbon Budget wurde heute veröffentlicht. Die Emissionen aus fossilen Quellen werden voraussichtlich im Jahr 2025 um weitere 1,1% steigen.
Global fossil CO2 emissions are projected to rise 1.1% in 2025, but there is some good news underneath that.
There are 35 economies where fossil CO2 emissions have declined in the last decade while growing their economies, even after accounting for variability.
theconversation.com/the-worlds-c...
There are 35 economies where fossil CO2 emissions have declined in the last decade while growing their economies, even after accounting for variability.
theconversation.com/the-worlds-c...
November 13, 2025 at 11:42 AM
Global fossil CO2 emissions are projected to rise 1.1% in 2025, but there is some good news underneath that.
There are 35 economies where fossil CO2 emissions have declined in the last decade while growing their economies, even after accounting for variability.
theconversation.com/the-worlds-c...
There are 35 economies where fossil CO2 emissions have declined in the last decade while growing their economies, even after accounting for variability.
theconversation.com/the-worlds-c...
You can stream the Global Carbon Budget 2025 press conference at 1400 EU time (1000 in Belém) on 13 November.
You will find the link here, under Press Conference 2, 10:00-10:30.
unfccc.int/cop30/meetin...
You will find the link here, under Press Conference 2, 10:00-10:30.
unfccc.int/cop30/meetin...
November 13, 2025 at 11:24 AM
You can stream the Global Carbon Budget 2025 press conference at 1400 EU time (1000 in Belém) on 13 November.
You will find the link here, under Press Conference 2, 10:00-10:30.
unfccc.int/cop30/meetin...
You will find the link here, under Press Conference 2, 10:00-10:30.
unfccc.int/cop30/meetin...
Reposted by Glen Peters
Always my fav chart from the GCB, and here's the 2025 update.
It lays out what we've avoided, what we've failed to avoid, and what's at stake if we let the future slip
We are not on a good trajectory, and slipping back into a worse trajectory is always possible. But: we know it bleeds
It lays out what we've avoided, what we've failed to avoid, and what's at stake if we let the future slip
We are not on a good trajectory, and slipping back into a worse trajectory is always possible. But: we know it bleeds
November 13, 2025 at 9:42 AM
Always my fav chart from the GCB, and here's the 2025 update.
It lays out what we've avoided, what we've failed to avoid, and what's at stake if we let the future slip
We are not on a good trajectory, and slipping back into a worse trajectory is always possible. But: we know it bleeds
It lays out what we've avoided, what we've failed to avoid, and what's at stake if we let the future slip
We are not on a good trajectory, and slipping back into a worse trajectory is always possible. But: we know it bleeds
Reposted by Glen Peters
Lots of bad climate news these days, but hey, let us focus on the bright side!
Good news: 35 countries have decreased their fossil CO2 emissions significantly (p<0.05) while growing their economies in the decade 2015-20244, twice as many as during the previous decade (2005-2014; 18 countries.
These 35 countries account for 27% of global fossil CO2 emissions.
5/
These 35 countries account for 27% of global fossil CO2 emissions.
5/
November 13, 2025 at 8:19 AM
Lots of bad climate news these days, but hey, let us focus on the bright side!
Reposted by Glen Peters
これは、初めて日本を含めた2025年のGlobal Carbon Budget（グローバル・カーボン・バジェット）の予測です。日本では、原子力発電所の再稼働が進み、太陽光発電が力強く成長することで、排出量は引き続き減少すると予想されています。
November 13, 2025 at 8:24 AM
これは、初めて日本を含めた2025年のGlobal Carbon Budget（グローバル・カーボン・バジェット）の予測です。日本では、原子力発電所の再稼働が進み、太陽光発電が力強く成長することで、排出量は引き続き減少すると予想されています。
Reposted by Glen Peters
Get your fill of Global Carbon Budget 2025 figures and associated data here, released today:
robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2025/
robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2025/
November 13, 2025 at 6:45 AM
Get your fill of Global Carbon Budget 2025 figures and associated data here, released today:
robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2025/
robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2025/
📢Global Carbon Budget 2025📢
Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength.
The key findings are covered in two reports this year:
* ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
* Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
1/
Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength.
The key findings are covered in two reports this year:
* ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
* Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
1/
November 13, 2025 at 7:07 AM
📢Global Carbon Budget 2025📢
Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength.
The key findings are covered in two reports this year:
* ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
* Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
1/
Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength.
The key findings are covered in two reports this year:
* ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
* Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
1/
No. Oil demand will keep rising if you make certain assumptions and policies.
The current policy scenario tells us which assumptions lead to rising oil demand. Yes, many assumptions are unrealistic as Dave explains. Therefore we would not expect oil to rise to 2050.
FT headline is wrong, clearly.
The current policy scenario tells us which assumptions lead to rising oil demand. Yes, many assumptions are unrealistic as Dave explains. Therefore we would not expect oil to rise to 2050.
FT headline is wrong, clearly.
🤡OIL DEMAND WILL KEEP RISING🤡
What are the IEA assumptions that make rising oil demand so improbable?
What are the IEA assumptions that make rising oil demand so improbable?
November 12, 2025 at 1:08 PM
No. Oil demand will keep rising if you make certain assumptions and policies.
The current policy scenario tells us which assumptions lead to rising oil demand. Yes, many assumptions are unrealistic as Dave explains. Therefore we would not expect oil to rise to 2050.
FT headline is wrong, clearly.
The current policy scenario tells us which assumptions lead to rising oil demand. Yes, many assumptions are unrealistic as Dave explains. Therefore we would not expect oil to rise to 2050.
FT headline is wrong, clearly.