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Reposted by Dominik Schraff

Ed Hagen @edhagen.net · 17h

I'm starting to explore {simDAG}, a nifty #rstats package that has a nice API for specifying DAGs and then simulating data from them: robindenz1.github.io/simDAG/

Simulate Data from a DAG and Associated Node Information

Simulate complex data from a given directed acyclic graph and information about each individual node. Root nodes are simply sampled from the specified distribution. Child Nodes are simulated according...

robindenz1.github.io

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Reposted by Dominik Schraff

Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 5d

🚨 New(ish) Publication Alert! Delighted to see my article Credit Claiming in the EU @thejop.bsky.social I explore a classic question for accountability in Europe: when and why do govs claim credit for the work of the EU and shift blame onto Brussels to avoid responsibility? doi.org/10.1086/732970

Credit Claiming in the European Union | The Journal of Politics: Vol 87, No 3

Incumbents in multilevel systems are assumed to exploit uncertainty of responsibility by claiming credit and shifting blame, yet little is known about when and how they engage in these rhetorical stra...

doi.org

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Reposted by Dominik Schraff

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 21h

The Spanish centre-right is taking a tumble and the far-right is on the rise.

I was lucky enough to present some new causal work on Friday at LSE showing that the PP does better when it signals distinctiveness from VOX.

~1.5K tests, same result. Rejecting far-right benefits centre-right

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Simon Hix @simonhix.bsky.social · 20h

Increasingly, politics in West Europe is a mirror of East Europe, with a large radical right party against a rag-tag of centrist/liberal, centre-left, green and radical left parties and a rapidly declining centre right. The challenge is to coordinate the progressive opposition to the radical right.

Catherine E. de Vries @catherinedevries.bsky.social · 21h

Scholars & pundits have focussed a lot on the electoral demise of center left, but in doing so we paid to little attention to the electoral problems of the center right.

Case-in-points here not only British conservatives or center right in France, but increasingly also the center right in Spain.

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Reposted by Dominik Schraff

Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 1d

Tariffs might be the word of 2025.

Given the state of *looks around* we asked: is there demand for tariffs in Europe?

@grahn.bsky.social @katharinalawall.bsky.social @sophiemainz.bsky.social Maria Nordbrandt & I show the answer is a resolute no
@jeppjournal.bsky.social

doi.org/10.1080/1350...

A game of tariffs: is there demand for tariffs in Europe?

In April 2025, the United States introduced sweeping tariffs on imports from the European Union and the United Kingdom, raising transatlantic tensions and prompting debate over Europe’s response. T...

doi.org

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Reposted by Dominik Schraff

Political Studies @polstudies.bsky.social · 3d

How do different forms of state capacity protect democracy? D Andersen, @chknutsen.bsky.social & @skaaning.bsky.social argue coercive & administrative capacity affect stability in distinct ways depending on threat: buff.ly/2yUrCqu

@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com

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Reposted by Dominik Schraff

Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 5d

The two steps of the current political dance in the European Parliament:

In the short-term, the EPP's threat to vote with the far-right worked, with the socialists S&D caving on the omnibus deregulation. Now every time the EPP can threaten them with a worse alternative. (From @euractiv.com).

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Political Science Research and Methods @psrm.bsky.social · 5d

🤖How can we turn text into a reliable quantitative measure using supervised learning?

➡️Ju Yeon Park & J M Montgomery outline a framework, illustrated with the tone of questions in U.S. Senate confirmation hearings www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView

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Reposted by Dominik Schraff

David Attewell @davidattewell6.bsky.social · 6d

@dpzollinger.bsky.social and I are thrilled "Cleavage Politics in Western Democracies" is out as an SI at @wepsocial.bsky.social!

Its papers explore the foundations of the cleavage pitting new left against radical right parties, and how it compares to the classic cleavages of Lipset & Rokkan:

🧵⬇️

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Guy Grossman @guygrossman.bsky.social · 7d

@carotorreblanca.bsky.social , Will Dinneen, and my paper entitled "Political Science Under Pressure: Competition and Collaboration in a Growing Discipline, 2003-2023" has been (conditionally) accepted at @poppublicsphere.bsky.social.

This paper has been a labor of love. osf.io/preprints/os...

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Public Opinion Quarterly - POQ @poqjournal.bsky.social · 7d

Tolerance for norm violations is bipartisan, depending on who’s president.

Littvay et al. show that while Republicans are more lenient of their president eroding norms, Democrats’ tolerance increases when they hold the presidency.

Read more: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...

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Reposted by Dominik Schraff

Teresa Völker @tevoelker.bsky.social · 7d

New paper out with @dasalgon.bsky.social: “Far-Right Agenda Setting: How the Far Right influences the Political Mainstream” doi.org/10.1017/S1475676525100066 #openaccess in @ejprjournal.bsky.social🧵

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Toni Rodon @tonirodon.bsky.social · 8d

Radical left support increases for those who study more than their parents and do not achieve upward class mobility, as well as for those who experience upward class mobility but continue to struggle financially www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

The unfulfilled promises of upward mobility and support for radical left parties in Western Europe

In recent decades, educational expansion has produced a large swathe of university graduates which labour markets are increasingly less able to absorb…

www.sciencedirect.com

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Reposted by Dominik Schraff

Political Science Research and Methods @psrm.bsky.social · 10d

🗳️ Policy congruence is key for democratic accountability.

➡️Using a game theoretic model, @liviodilo.bsky.social & T Dragu show that when an issue is more salient in elections, representatives' policies align less with voters' preferences www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView

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Reposted by Dominik Schraff

Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 10d

Currently in FirstView: In “What to Observe When Assuming Selection on Observables,” Kevin M. Quinn, Guoer Liu, Lee Epstein, and Andrew Martin clarify how most estimators justified by a selection-on-observables assumption are special cases of a general weighting estimator.

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Reposted by Dominik Schraff

Joe Noonan @joenoonan.se · 10d

Excellent work from my SU colleague Einar Bäckström on the temporal dynamics of the winner loser gap in democracy satisfaction using a regression discontinuity in time design across 21 European countries.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Sore losers on election night? Examining the temporal emergence of the winner–loser gap | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core

Sore losers on election night? Examining the temporal emergence of the winner–loser gap

www.cambridge.org

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Reposted by Dominik Schraff

Toni Rodon @tonirodon.bsky.social · 11d

Workers on temporary contracts are more likely to strongly support redistribution. But in times of economic uncertainty, preferences converge as permanent workers also demand more government intervention www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Labor Market Institutions and Preferences for Redistribution

In highly segmented labor markets uneven distributions of risk across worker groups can lead to varying demands for redistribution. We study the impac…

www.sciencedirect.com

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Reposted by Dominik Schraff

Mads Dagnis @madsdagnis.bsky.social · 11d

When Nature Strikes: Which Regimes Exploit Natural Disasters for Fiscal Expansion? A new article in Governance with Suen Wang examines this question. We find that hybrid regimes do, while democracies and autocracies do not.
🔗 doi.org/10.1111/gove...

When Nature Strikes: Which Regimes Exploit Natural Disasters for Fiscal Expansion?

This study examines how different types of regimes use performance-based legitimation after severe natural disasters. While prior research has evaluated emergency relief, broader fiscal responses rem....

doi.org

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Reposted by Dominik Schraff

Political Science Research and Methods @psrm.bsky.social · 11d

🏭 How can we measure firms' political influence across countries?

➡️Using surveys of 27,000+ firms in 41 countries and a Bayesian IRT model, D C. Francis & @rmkubinec.bsky.social estimate firm-level influence scores and show how they vary across regimes www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView

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Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte @turnbulldugarte.com · 13d

Happy to publish today in the @ejprjournal.bsky.social

Pop culture (think Netflix's Sex Education) make us think that emerging cohorts are happy to socially incorporate partners with sexually modern backgrounds and experiences 🏳️‍🌈

But is this really the case?

doi.org/10.1017/S147...

Allies on the streets but illiberal in the sheets? Gender and the public vs. private inclusion of sexual minorities | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core

Allies on the streets but illiberal in the sheets? Gender and the public vs. private inclusion of sexual minorities

doi.org

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JEPP Journal @jeppjournal.bsky.social · 12d

🤝 @jochemvanagt.bsky.social, Katrin Praprotnik, @luanarusso.bsky.social, and @markuswagner.bsky.social show that when the mainstream right signals openness to govern with the far right, it eases tensions on the right but amplifies antipathy on the left 👇

🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Partisan affect and political tolerance in the context of shifting norms: the effect of coalition signals towards the radical right

Mainstream political actors in many countries face the challenging decision of how to engage with radical-right parties. While some systematically exclude them from power, others accept them as coa...

www.tandfonline.com

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Dominik Schraff @dschraff.bsky.social · 13d

Check out this great 🧵 by @svenhegewald.bsky.social on our recent @cpsjournal.bsky.social paper.

Sven Hegewald @svenhegewald.bsky.social · 13d

Just out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social 🚨
Together with @dschraff.bsky.social, I ask: Is the urban–rural divide in Europe affectively polarised?
👉 journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
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Is the Urban-Rural Divide Affectively Polarised? Comparative Evidence from Nine European Countries - Sven Hegewald, Dominik Schraff, 2025

Recent studies in the United States and Europe have documented a growing divergence in voting behaviour and political attitudes between cities and the countrysi...

journals.sagepub.com

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Reposted by Dominik Schraff

Ea Blaabæk @blaabaek.bsky.social · 14d

Even in Denmark, cultural tastes are socially stratified. With some quite cool library data we find strong gradients by education and wealth - important as wealth is rarely studied in cultural stratification research

doi.org/10.1093/esr/...
OA: osf.io/ar2xc_v2/dow...
@europeansocreview.bsky.social

How are cultural tastes stratified? Evidence from library borrowing for the entire population of Denmark

Abstract. Research shows that cultural tastes are socially stratified. Yet, most of this research relies on small-sample surveys and includes only a few di

doi.org

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Anne Rasmussen @annerasmussen.bsky.social · 15d

🚨 New paper in @thejop.bsky.social

Why do politicians often misperceive what citizens' policy positions are?

@simonotjes.bsky.social and I study ~10,000 estimates of public opinion by politicians in Denmark & the Netherlands to uncover the sources of these (mis)perceptions

Thread 🧵1/10

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Christopher Wratil 🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine @chriswratil.bsky.social · 18d

You have work on politics in Europe, European integration or the EU?

Submit it to next year's @epssnet.bsky.social conference section on "European and EU Politics“ 👇

@bjornhoyland.bsky.social & I are open to diverse proposals with a European dimension.

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