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danielzhao.bsky.social
Daniel Zhao
@danielzhao.bsky.social
3.2K followers 400 following 660 posts
Glassdoor Chief Economist glassdoor.com/research I post charts about the job market and workplace trends Formerly known as @DanielBZhao on Twitter Maryland born & raised, now in NYC
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danielzhao.bsky.social
Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 1d
awful nice of the Dallas Fed to believe even in the worst case, we'd survive ~10 years post-singularity in the human-AI war
cibo.bsky.social
Cibo🏴 @cibo.bsky.social · 1d
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, you need to chill
Chart from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas charting GDP per capita with AI scenarios. It includes a benign Technological Singularity scenario and one where it leads to extinction. Both happen in the mid-2020s
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Reposted by Daniel Zhao
campbelljd.bsky.social
Josh Campbell @campbelljd.bsky.social · 1d
Key stat from @amandamull.bsky.social article "The richest 10% of US households—those making roughly $250,000 or more—now account for almost half the country’s consumer purchases, according to Moody’s Analytics"
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Inside the Credit Card Battle to Win America’s Richest Shoppers
The fierce fight between Amex and Chase is playing out over higher fees, extravagant events and every perk imaginable.
www.bloomberg.com
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Reposted by Daniel Zhao
bencasselman.bsky.social
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 2d
Unemployment is surging for Black workers — and federal government layoffs will only make it worse. Important story from @lydiadepillis.bsky.social

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/12/b... #EconSky
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Reposted by Daniel Zhao
maiamindel.bsky.social
Maia @maiamindel.bsky.social · 2d
New Substack post: the Nobel Prize goes to an economic historian and two economists of growth trying to answer the question, where do new technologies come from?

someunpleasant.substack.com/p/growing-th...
Growing the Field
What is the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economics about?
someunpleasant.substack.com
4 25 86
Reposted by Daniel Zhao
politico.com
Politico @politico.com · 4d
The Trump admin has started firing federal workers 10 days into the shutdown, according OMB Director Russ Vought — who called the firings "substantial."

At least nine agencies appear to be affected.
Vought sounds layoff siren: 'The RIFs have begun'
At least nine agencies appear to be affected.
www.politico.com
38 67 100
danielzhao.bsky.social
Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 5d
September CPI will be released in two weeks on Friday, Oct 24, 2025 at 8:30 AM ET to accommodate the SSA COLA adjustments despite the government shutdown.

Jobs report won't be released though

www.bls.gov/bls/092025-c...
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danielzhao.bsky.social
Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 5d
Bank of America Institute data shows divergence in spending trends with higher-income household spending accelerating to 2.6% year-over-year in September while lower-income household spending grows at just 0.6% year-over-year

Source: institute.bankofamerica.com/economic-ins...
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Reposted by Daniel Zhao
bencasselman.bsky.social
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 5d
The decision appears to be connected to the annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, which is based on consumer price data from the third quarter (which includes September). If the CPI report is delayed, that could lead in a delay in the COLA announcement.
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Reposted by Daniel Zhao
bencasselman.bsky.social
Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 5d
SCOOP: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is preparing to release the September C.P.I. report despite the shutdown. (Exact date still unclear -- almost certainly not the original Oct. 15 date.) #EconSky #NumbersDay
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Reposted by Daniel Zhao
peark.es
George Pearkes @peark.es · 5d
Absolute banger of a blog post from Dallas Fed economist Anton Cheremukhin who estimates breakeven payrolls have fallen to *30k* thanks to rapid declines in population growth.
www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...
Chart showing estimates of US population growth at monthly frequencies from 2017-2025 from BLS, BEA/Census, CBO, and author's calculations Estimated monthly contributions to monthly breakeven payroll growth across population, changes in institutionalization/civilian status, and labor force participation 2017 - 2025 Estimated monthly breakeven payrolls rate from 2022-2025
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danielzhao.bsky.social
Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 6d
No way the "More than 30" group is only 3%
yougov.co.uk
YouGov @yougov.co.uk · 6d
How many browsing tabs do you typically have open?*

1: 6%
2-5: 54%
6-10: 14%
11-20: 8%
21-30: 2%
More than 30: 3%

*across all windows, on desktop/laptop

yougov.co.uk/topics/techn...
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danielzhao.bsky.social
Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 7d
Unclear, vast majority of establishment survey responses come from online or via data file which don't require an employee to manually collect, but idk what setup needs to happen for each new month:
www.bls.gov/web/empsit/c...
Data sources
www.bls.gov
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danielzhao.bsky.social
Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 7d
By contrast, furloughed federal workers were classified as unemployed on temporary layoff in the household survey, which boosted the unemployment rate during the 2019 shutdown.
Screenshot: "3. Household survey: How did the partial federal government shutdown impact January estimates? Unlike the establishment survey, some of the estimates from the household survey reflect an impact of the partial federal government shutdown. Both the unemployment rate, at 4.0 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.5 million, edged up in January (on a seasonally adjusted basis). The impact of the shutdown contributed to the uptick in the measures. In the household survey, workers who indicate that they were not working during the entire reference week due to a shutdown-related furlough and expect to be recalled to their jobs should be classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, whether or not they are paid for the time they were off work. (The household survey reference week was January 6–12.) In January, many furloughed federal employees were classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, contributing to a rise in the overall number of unemployed people on temporary layoff. (See details in item 4 below.) However, as was the case with the 2013 partial federal government shutdown, some federal workers who were not at work during the entire reference week were not classified as unemployed on temporary layoff in January. Rather, they were classified as employed but absent from work. BLS review of the underlying data indicates that most of these workers were misclassified; they should have been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. (See details in item 5 below.) "
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danielzhao.bsky.social
Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 7d
Reading through the BLS's 2019 FAQ on govt shutdown and in the establishment survey, furloughed federal employees were still counted as employed because they were expected to receive back pay for the period.

www.bls.gov/bls/shutdown...
Screenshot of text "2. Establishment survey: How did the partial federal government shutdown impact January estimates? In the establishment survey, there were no discernible impacts of the partial federal government shutdown on the January estimates of employment, hours, and earnings. There was no impact on the establishment survey estimate of federal employment, which was essentially unchanged in January (+1,000). Federal employees on furlough during the shutdown were considered employed because they worked or received pay (or will receive pay) for the pay period that included the 12th of the month."
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danielzhao.bsky.social
Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 7d
Some good details on the mechanics of when pay arrives for government workers from @gregorykorte.com

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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danielzhao.bsky.social
Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 7d
I think making it enticing for people to get emotionally invested in the Jets is NOT a social good

source: @matt-levine.bsky.social, www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
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danielzhao.bsky.social
Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 7d
Bank of America Institute released internal data on the job market which showed further slowing in Sep.

Their continuing UI claims estimate is up +10% YoY vs. +5% YoY in recent govt data. And jobs growth is at about +0.5% YoY vs. +1% in Aug BLS data.

institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/...
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Reposted by Daniel Zhao
amandamull.bsky.social
Amanda Mull @amandamull.bsky.social · 8d
Maybe the weirdest touchdown I’ve ever seen
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Reposted by Daniel Zhao
conorsen.bsky.social
Conor Sen @conorsen.bsky.social · 11d
“Overall, the administration expects the federal workforce to end the year with hundreds of thousands fewer employees, attributed to a hiring freeze, layoffs and voluntary departures.” www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...
Federal-Worker Buyouts Are Kicking In, Darkening the U.S. Employment Picture
About 100,000 federal workers came off the payroll last week, adding strain to an already weakening labor market.
www.wsj.com
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danielzhao.bsky.social
Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 12d
Again, alternative data is not a replacement for BLS data. Even in the best of times, it's a useful complement, but still requires BLS data to benchmark and set the context.

Write-up on the above Glassdoor data: www.glassdoor.com/blog/glassdo...
No jobs report: What does Glassdoor data say? - Glassdoor US
www.glassdoor.com
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danielzhao.bsky.social
Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 12d
[4] In interview reviews on Glassdoor submitted in Sep, the % of candidates that received a job offer but declined it fell to 17%, down from 20% in Aug and down from 26% in Sep 2024.

As hiring declines, workers have less leverage when interviewing for a new job and may be more inclined to settle.
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danielzhao.bsky.social
Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 12d
[3] The % of Glassdoor reviews mentioning layoffs fell 2.3% month-over-month from Aug to Sep. Feels like layoffs have come out of the headlines a little vs earlier in the year + employee sentiment has followed.

However, the % of reviews that mention layoffs is still up 26% year-over-year.
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danielzhao.bsky.social
Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 12d
[2] Salaries* on Glassdoor declined slightly in Sep: Salaries averaged $71,831/yr, down 0.4% from $72,128 in Aug.
Salaries grew 4.9% year-over-year in Sep, slower than +5.4% in Aug and the slowest annual pace of pay growth since Apr 2025

*Self-reported, reweighted to CPS industry-hourly mix
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danielzhao.bsky.social
Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 12d
We're not getting a jobs report today, so what does Glassdoor data say about the Sep job market? It's a mixed bag (which highlights how important it is even for alternative data to have BLS data set the context):

[1] The Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index improved in Sep rising to 47.7% from 45.6%
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Reposted by Daniel Zhao
johngramlich.bsky.social
John Gramlich @johngramlich.bsky.social · 12d
% of US men under 30 who say legal sports betting is a *bad thing* for society

22% in 2022
47% in 2025

No other demographic group has seen a bigger increase.
Americans increasingly see legal sports betting as a bad thing for society and sports
Today, 43% of U.S. adults say the fact that sports betting is now legal in much of the country is a bad thing for society, up from 34% in 2022.
www.pewresearch.org
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