Adam Mongrain
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adammongrain.bsky.social
Adam Mongrain
@adammongrain.bsky.social
2.1K followers 3K following 860 posts
Director - Housing policy | Directeur - Habitation, Vivre en Ville Montréal, Québec EN/FR
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In the lead up to the publication of the English version of @vivreenville.bsky.social's housing policy book, I wanted to take a bit of time to flesh out a few ideas that are essential to make sense of where we're going. Today: all housing prices are monopolistic prices.

medium.com/@AdamMongrai...
There’s no place like (your) home
Through many of the same mechanisms as there being no such thing as non-market housing, there’s really no place like home.
medium.com
This is the least bad thing about all of that but it sucks for me, I had an interminable rant about conflating housing supply with trickle-down policies
Ontario's awful ideas about security of tenure are upending my blog schedule
If I understand the ICC drafting process correctly, there’s a case to be made that building code dysfunction is also a matter of conflict of interests, right?
Videos in which we see the comforting normalcy of the sky give way to the abyss of space are awesome in the old-timey sense, i.e. they inspire awe and/or terror. About a 40-60 split for me.
If you want an actually insane (and very cool) video of a passenger in a fighter jet, I cannot recommend enough this one by Sam Eckholm
Flying the U-2 Spy Plane 70,000 Feet to the Edge of Space
YouTube video by Sam Eckholm
youtu.be
Reposted by Adam Mongrain
Hi. It's me. 2 weeks later. This is done. 58 frames over 3 seconds, *50* layers in the final image. WOO. This was a long edit, felt like ACTUAL work so unless I get it again with the actual sunset I doubt I'll be editing more like this. Psyched for the final piece tho! 🪶
Right, I think the natural conclusion of the tightening you suggest would be that saving would become something done for idiosyncratic reasons, and not the baseline expectation of rational household budgeting. I get how that is an improvement and also how much of a change from the status quo.
Would savings be reserved simply for additional future income above a guaranteed baseline by taking away from current disposable income, and if so, why not just choose to pay into the pension fund?
The arguments make sense but since CDs and treasuries are relatively stable/safe/predictable/accessible, what’s the argument or interest for individual consumer savings? If the amount earned on money saved is more or less fixed, why not just fold it into public pensions?
dang the AWS outage took down my last medium post and today was the day I was gonna finally hit the 18 views milestone
Relatedly: I yearn for normal job descriptions tailored to the skills of banal workers. A lot of us are.
Hustle culture is fundamentally reactionary
just an observation but it does seem like the entertainment class of tiktok lifestyle influencers and reality stars is going to be way more right wing than actors, directors, and tv/movie writers.
Hey since they want to put Copilot in Excel, has anyone thought to ask it to calculate the chances of Scott Steiner beating Samoa Joe, at Sacrifice?
In the lead up to the publication of the English version of @vivreenville.bsky.social's housing policy book, I wanted to take a bit of time to flesh out a few ideas that are essential to make sense of where we're going. Today: all housing prices are monopolistic prices.

medium.com/@AdamMongrai...
There’s no place like (your) home
Through many of the same mechanisms as there being no such thing as non-market housing, there’s really no place like home.
medium.com
Reposted by Adam Mongrain
"Coworker hearted your message in Outlook!" Ok but why can they do that
@alexbaca.bsky.social, to a room full of planners in 2021: you are planning with your own selves in mind

Four years later, we finally got it in writing
Good recommendation, thanks.
The Toronto model of having a lot of rental supply in the secondary market that gets financed by deposits on condo development is probably more unsound/less sophisticated than the general nuts and bolts of just figuring that you can get your margin from a relatively full building kept at 3% indexing
I would say they aren't much different from other places! People in Québec are more likely to rent than in other provinces, so if the internal math works, builders will put PBR on the market. But they don't plan for uncapped rent increase to make the math work.
Not a huge sample because that developer just recently moved into PBR since MLI financing is a lifeline to keep development alive, and it could be the case that more experienced builder-operators work differently. But the basics seem sound enough: get your margins covered from day 1, or don't build.
So, I heard back.

In projects that were delivered since 2022, they planned for a 3% yearly rent increase after construction. In projects that target a churnier clientele (downtown non-permanent residents and students), the vacancy rate is so high that they can't increase rents at all.
Reposted by Adam Mongrain
🏗️ J'ai travaillé fort avec des gens de Construisons Montréal pour sonder les partis municipaux sur leurs propositions pour construire plus de logements. Jetez-y un coup d'oeil!
When land is sold at a premium, the industry moves to a low-supply, high-value strategy, because the build price puts the product out of the reach of most households. Plus even with a reactive city, infrastructure might not be in place. And demand from tourists!=demand for stable housing.
The short version is that demand shocks don’t necessarily lead to more housing, as we’ve seen in high demand like SF and NYC and Vancouver. The owners get the price signals, the cities don’t always increase zoned capacity, developers have to pay a premium for land because of pent-up demand.
This opportunity ends up bleeding into prices generally, as documented in this pretty elegant study.

mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/96131/1/MPRA...

Which would be only half bad if rent pressures meant more supply, but we know from experience that cities will tolerate almost infinite RE appreciation.
mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
In tourist destinations (a lot of big cities), putting a 2 bedroom unit for 150$ a night is an interesting bet if the average monthly rent in 1500$.