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Reposted by William F. Lamb

pik-potsdam.bsky.social
Expertise from the Potsdam Institute.

8 Lead Authors for @IPCC_CH #AR7:

nico bauer
Niklas Boers
Franziska Piontek
Iulii Didovets
Barbora Sedova
@wflamb.bsky.social
Jan Minx
Elmar Kriegler

First Lead Author meeting Dec 2025, report out 2028/29.

www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...
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Reposted by William F. Lamb, Andy Purvis, Benjamin G. Wright , and 1 more

susiedent.com
Word of the Day is ‘uhtcearu’ [ucht-kay-aru, with the 'ch' as in the Scottish ‘loch']:

Old English for ‘the sorrow before dawn', when you lie awake in the darkness and worries crowd your mind.
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by Friederike Otto — Reposted by William F. Lamb, Diarmid Campbell‐Lendrum, Ed Hawkins , and 1 more

frediotto.bsky.social
About 1500 of the approx. 2300 people that will have lost their lives across 12 European cities last week would still live, if it wasn't for our burning of oil, coal and gas. If we care about the right to life, we need to stop burning fossil fuels. www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/pub...
bar chart showing deaths associate with extreme heat with and without climate change in 12 European cities
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Reposted by William F. Lamb

matthiasschmelzer.bsky.social
Out today: Freedom for Capital not People: The Mont Pèlerin Society and the Origins of the Neoliberal Monetary Order @versobooks.bsky.social
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Reposted by William F. Lamb

pik-potsdam.bsky.social
Höhepunkt der Emissionen noch nicht erreicht - Tagesschau Online berichtet über Report „Indikatoren des globalen Klimawandels“. Es werde immer schwieriger, die 1,5 Grad noch zu halten, je länger Emissionen nicht reduziert würden, so PIK Forscher @wflamb.bsky.social
www.tagesschau.de/wissen/klima...
Höhepunkt der CO2-Emissionen noch nicht erreicht
Während Delegierte aus aller Welt in Bonn die nächste Klimakonferenz vorbereiten, offenbart ein neuer Bericht die fragile Lage des Weltklimas. Die Forderungen nach einem Umsteuern werden immer lauter....
www.tagesschau.de
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by William F. Lamb

wflamb.bsky.social
😆oops
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by William F. Lamb

wflamb.bsky.social
And Thailand
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by William F. Lamb

wflamb.bsky.social
Some impressively complete data from Nepal in the latest version
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by William F. Lamb

wflamb.bsky.social
Having said that, including LULUCF in total emissions only changes the recent trend in a few isolated cases (top left, bottom right).

But we can probably expect to see more European countries enter the "slower reductions" zone as natural disturbances cut into the land sink.
robbieandrew.bsky.social
Robbie Andrew @robbieandrew.bsky.social · Apr 17
Just released: Huge revision in Germany's official estimates of emissions/uptake from the land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector, now reflecting the spruce bark beetle outbreaks that started in 2018. 1/2
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by William F. Lamb

wflamb.bsky.social
The land use change (LULUCF) sector is pretty confusing, since it can be a source of emissions (deforestation, disturbances) as well as a source of removals (regrowth, management).

Including LULUCF can speed up, slow down, or change the overall dynamic of economy-wide emissions.
A dot plot comparing the change in national GHG emissions over the past 5 years with (x axis) and without (y axis) the LULUCF sector
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Reposted by William F. Lamb, Robert Falkner, Nathalie Pettorelli , and 4 more

carbonbrief.org
NEW – Analysis: Clean energy just put China’s CO2 emissions into reverse for first time | @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social

Read here: buff.ly/6eAcjRU
Line chart – China's CO2 emissions are now 1% below their March 2024 peak: China’s emissions from fossil fuels and cement, million tonnes of CO2, rolling 12-month totals. Source: Emissions are estimated from National Bureau of Statistics data on production of different fuels and cement, China Customs data on imports and exports and WIND Information data on changes in inventories, applying emissions factors from China’s latest national greenhouse gas emissions inventory and annual emissions factors per tonne of cement production until 2024. Sector breakdown of coal consumption is estimated using coal consumption data from WIND Information and electricity data from the National Energy Administration.
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by Glen P. Peters — Reposted by William F. Lamb

glenpeters.bsky.social
Will Lamb @wflamb.bsky.social has pulled the troops together & submitted an article to explain why different datasets can give different estimates of GHG emissions.

My favourite: differences in accounting for fire emissions.

Article in review, please comment!

essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
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by William F. Lamb

wflamb.bsky.social
Greenhouse gas emissions are still mostly from fossil fuels by the way!!

lambwf.github.io/UNEP-Gap-Rep...
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by Chris Smith — Reposted by William F. Lamb

cjsmith.be
New preprint: differences in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions explained essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
Differences in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions estimates explained
Abstract. We examine differences in global and national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates and highlight the important role of varying system boundaries and conceptual approaches in driving thes...
essd.copernicus.org
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by Glen P. Peters — Reposted by William F. Lamb

glenpeters.bsky.social
The EU has released its latest GHG emission inventory, with data up to 2023.

The good news, GHG emissions continue a downward trend, currently 37% below 1990 levels.

The bad news, a significant downward revision of land-use removals (LULUCF).

1/
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by William F. Lamb

wflamb.bsky.social
I tried
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by Robbie M. Andrew — Reposted by William F. Lamb, Andreas Oschlies, Andy Reisinger

robbieandrew.bsky.social
Just released: Huge revision in Germany's official estimates of emissions/uptake from the land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector, now reflecting the spruce bark beetle outbreaks that started in 2018. 1/2
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Reposted by William F. Lamb, Dominik Wiedenhofer

fastlerner.bsky.social
So the US was supposed to report its greenhouse gas emissions to the UNFCCC yesterday.

For the first time since 1997, it didn't.

This follows last week's revelation that Trump's EPA is stopping collection of GHG emission from 40 of 41 sectors

www.propublica.org/article/trum...
Trump’s EPA Plans to Stop Collecting Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data From Most Polluters
Climate experts expressed shock and dismay at the move. “It would be a bit like unplugging the equipment that monitors the vital signs of a patient that is critically ill,” one said.
www.propublica.org
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by William F. Lamb

wflamb.bsky.social
I find these quite useful for explaining trends, but it seems to me there is a lot going on behind the scenes in counterfactual estimates. I'd like to see more literature on it, in case anyone has some leads...
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by William F. Lamb

wflamb.bsky.social
And here one on energy demand from @ember-energy.org

ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
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by William F. Lamb

wflamb.bsky.social
Interesting that people are starting to incorporate these counterfactuals in their emissions reporting. Here's a similar take from the @iea.org

www.iea.org/reports/glob...
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by William F. Lamb

wflamb.bsky.social
According to Carbon Monitor, emissions could have been 9.8GtCO2 higher in 2024... if renewable energy supply had been met with expected fossil sources instead

www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Global carbon emissions and decarbonization in 2024 - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
Global CO2 emissions in 2024 increased 0.9% on the previous year, totalling 36.3 Gt CO2. These ongoing emissions further deplete remaining carbon budgets, with some estimates suggesting the 1.5 °C bud...
www.nature.com
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by William F. Lamb

wflamb.bsky.social
Lots more figures here: lambwf.github.io/Tidy-GHG-Inv...
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by William F. Lamb

wflamb.bsky.social
I've updated the Tidy GHG Inventories dataset, which is now complete for Annex I countries: doi.org/10.5281/zeno...

This also shows the progress to date in countries submitting Biennial Transparency Reports under the Paris Agreement ⬇️
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Reposted by William F. Lamb

davidrvetter.bsky.social
Prominent climate communicators continue to "joke" that what Trump is doing is "degrowth". It is not, and such claims are actively harmful. A quick🧵
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by William F. Lamb

wflamb.bsky.social
You may also like:

lambwf.github.io/UNEP-Gap-Rep...
lambwf.github.io/Tidy-GHG-Inv...
UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024 - Chapter 2 Figures
lambwf.github.io
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by Timothy Snyder — Reposted by William F. Lamb, İhsan Yılmaz, Benny Geys , and 9 more

timothysnyder.bsky.social
If you accept that non-citizens have no right to due process, you are accepting that citizens have no right to due process. All the government has to do is claim that you are not a citizen; without due process you have no chance to prove the contrary.
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by William F. Lamb

wflamb.bsky.social
😬
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by William F. Lamb

wflamb.bsky.social
This looks like a very interesting piece on interest groups at the COPs

www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Sankey diagram representing fossil fuel companies and lobbyists and their nominators at COP28
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by William F. Lamb

wflamb.bsky.social
Here with consumption-based CO2
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References

Fields & subjects

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