Scholar
LightNews

Shelley Clark

Videos
H-index: 30
Public Health 26%
Physics 20%
more

by Shelley Clark — Reposted by Shelley Clark, Jacob T. Levy, Samantha Brennan

shelleydclark.bsky.social
This new briefing paper from a larger team of demographer coauthors led by @amandajean.bsky.social complements the @theconversation.com piece three of us wrote last month described in the thread below.

sites.utexas.edu/contemporary...
1 4 13

Reposted by Shelley Clark

amandajean.bsky.social
I found this out because there were these weird off-hand comments in the population projections from the era. I was shocked that they thought fertility rates would remain at or near Depression levels in the 1940s and 1950s.
But of course they did! We always think the future will be like the present.
1 1

Reposted by Shelley Clark

amandajean.bsky.social
Did you know that in the 1930s and 1940s elites across society were wringing their hands about birthrate decline? Just like today they attributed their low fertility (BELOW REPLACEMENT, SHUDDER SHUDDER) to individualism, urbanization, consumerism, selfishness, etc.

This paper discusses it nicely.
ipc2009.popconf.org
1 1 5

by Shelley Clark

shelleydclark.bsky.social
#population #demography
1

by Shelley Clark — Reposted by Jacob T. Levy

shelleydclark.bsky.social
Repeated headlines about population collapse got you worried? @amandajean.bsky.social and a team of demographer colleagues (including me) on why you should rest easy in the face of the pronatalist panic.
amandajean.bsky.social
Amanda Jean Stevenson @amandajean.bsky.social · Aug 20
Are we doomed to a demographic destiny of decline because ladies aren't having babies? No.

We've been here before. It turns out that population projections only describe one of many possible futures. Our actual future is still to be written.
philipncohen.com
Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · Aug 20
From @amandajean.bsky.social and @ccfamilies.bsky.social : "Don’t Panic: Population Projection is Not a Crystal Ball"
2 6 20

by Shelley Clark — Reposted by Philip N. Cohen, Jacob T. Levy

amandajean.bsky.social
Are we doomed to a demographic destiny of decline because ladies aren't having babies? No.

We've been here before. It turns out that population projections only describe one of many possible futures. Our actual future is still to be written.
philipncohen.com
Philip N Cohen @philipncohen.com · Aug 20
From @amandajean.bsky.social and @ccfamilies.bsky.social : "Don’t Panic: Population Projection is Not a Crystal Ball"
graph of historical population projections from 1946 showing they were all too low
2 16 55

by Karen Benjamin Guzzo — Reposted by Shelley Clark, Rebecca Sear, Sarah J. Schoppe‐Sullivan

karenguzzo.bsky.social
Feeling alarmed over dire long-term population projections that suggest humanity will disappear? Don't be!

Demographers generally aren't worried, and you shouldn't be either. @amandajean.bsky.social explains why in this great @ccfamilies.bsky.social brief.

sites.utexas.edu/contemporary...
Don’t Panic: Population Projection is Not a Crystal Ball August 20th, 2025 Population panic – worries about “depopulation” linked to low birth rates – has become pervasive, with dire predictions in both the short and long term. Yet demographers like us – experts who explicitly study population size, composition, and structure – are generally not highly concerned. Why is this? It’s because we understand the strengths and limitations of population projections. Projections can accurately describe how populations will change if we know future birth, death, and migration rates. But demographers are well aware that they don’t have a crystal ball – we can’t fully anticipate economic shifts, political changes, global events, or how future generations will respond to their changing worlds. That’s why the farther we project from the present, the less accurate those projections are likely to be.
2 14 20

by Shelley Clark — Reposted by Juliet Johnson

shelleydclark.bsky.social
ICYMI
shelleydclark.bsky.social
Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · Jul 29
My coauthors @lesja.bsky.social @karenguzzo.bsky.social & I have a new piece in @theconversation.com , which offers insights into why most demographers do NOT think there is a current fertility crisis and the panic about population decline is unwarranted.
1/
theconversation.com/fears-that-f...
Fears that falling birth rates in US could lead to population collapse are based on faulty assumptions
While the changes in population structure that accompany low birth rates are real, the impact of these changes has been dramatically overstated.
theconversation.com
1 1

by Shelley Clark

shelleydclark.bsky.social
Read the whole thing!
@mcgillumedia.bsky.social @mcgillarts.bsky.social

9/9
1 1 11

by Shelley Clark

shelleydclark.bsky.social
Our ongoing conversation partners about these ideas and the need for demographers to challenge the mistakes of pronatalism include
@amandajean.bsky.social @srhayford.bsky.social @lauralindberg.bsky.social @alisongemmill.bsky.social @drjenndowd.bsky.social
8/
1 1 14

by Shelley Clark

shelleydclark.bsky.social
But the kind of crisis that pronatalists say requires state policy interventions in childbearing decisions isn't supported by evidence or good social science.
7/
1 3 18

by Shelley Clark

shelleydclark.bsky.social
There can be a good case for adjustments to economic and labor policies, family support, education investments, and immigration to adapt to changes in the age structure of the population, and to help families reach their desired number of children.
6/
1 1 16

by Shelley Clark

shelleydclark.bsky.social
Nor is there any current reason to expect medium-term decline in the US population in particular, or the crises pronatalists imagine about the labor force. Some of their ideas risk making labor force problems *worse* by reversing gains in women's labor force participation.
5/
1 2 25

by Shelley Clark

shelleydclark.bsky.social
"Most population scientists avoid making such long-term projections, for the simple reason that they are usually wrong. That’s because fertility and mortality rates change over time in unpredictable ways."
4/
1 2 28

by Shelley Clark

shelleydclark.bsky.social
Pronatalists overestimate the precision of long-term projections of fertility rates, assuming that once they've fallen they will stay low forever.
3/
1 2 27

by Shelley Clark

shelleydclark.bsky.social
The public pronatalism discourse misunderstands how an important measure of fertility works and what it does and doesn't tell us. It relies on a measure, the total fertility rate, that *necessarily* underestimates lifetime fertility during a transition to childbearing at older ages.
2/
1 2 26

by Shelley Clark — Reposted by Shelley Clark, Rebecca Sear

shelleydclark.bsky.social
My coauthors @lesja.bsky.social @karenguzzo.bsky.social & I have a new piece in @theconversation.com , which offers insights into why most demographers do NOT think there is a current fertility crisis and the panic about population decline is unwarranted.
1/
theconversation.com/fears-that-f...
Fears that falling birth rates in US could lead to population collapse are based on faulty assumptions
While the changes in population structure that accompany low birth rates are real, the impact of these changes has been dramatically overstated.
theconversation.com
7 41 110

Reposted by Shelley Clark

popconnect.bsky.social
We are so glad to see this important conversation gaining traction. The fear-mongering around “population collapse” is not only overstated — it’s often rooted in outdated or biased assumptions.
👇

theconversation.com/fears-that-f...
Fears that falling birth rates in US could lead to population collapse are based on faulty assumptions
While the changes in population structure that accompany low birth rates are real, the impact of these changes has been dramatically overstated.
theconversation.com
1 4 7

by Shelley Clark

shelleydclark.bsky.social
@mcgillarts.bsky.social

@mcgillnewsmag.bsky.social

@mcgillumedia.bsky.social
2

by Shelley Clark

shelleydclark.bsky.social
Limiting women's access to contraception undermines their reproductive autonomy leading to *both* more unintended births and fewer wanted births.

5/5
1 1 8

by Shelley Clark

shelleydclark.bsky.social
The rural-urban gaps aren't explained by other differences in women's characteristics. We argue that they're explained by differential access to other forms of contraception or abortion that allow control over the timing of childbearing.
4/5
1 1 5

by Shelley Clark

shelleydclark.bsky.social
So significantly more rural women who want to have another child find that they are unable to do so.
3/5
1 4

by Shelley Clark

shelleydclark.bsky.social
Tubal ligation is difficult and expensive to reverse, but 20-25% of women with ligations later want additional children.

Rural women are almost twice as likely as suburban or urban women to receive tubal ligations.

2/5
1 7

by Shelley Clark

shelleydclark.bsky.social
Now online open access at Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health: my article with Zoe Levy showing that limits on contraception and abortion access in rural America lead more women there to opt for tubal ligation and end up unable to have wanted children later.
1/5

doi.org/10.1111/psrh...
Sterilization, Infecundity, and Reproductive Autonomy in Rural, Suburban, and Urban America: Results From a National Survey
Objective Rural women are significantly more likely than urban women to be sterilized. This study aims to understand why rural women depend so heavily on this method of fertility control, whether th...
doi.org
1 16 36

by Shelley Clark

shelleydclark.bsky.social
About to talk with Michael Medved about the op-ed and research on rural marriage and fertility.

michaelmedved.com
The Michael Medved Show - America's #1 Show on Pop Culture and Politics
The Michael Medved Show is America's #1 Show on Pop Culture and Politics. Giving you insightful columns and commentary, videos, movie reviews, and more.
michaelmedved.com
1 3

Reposted by Shelley Clark

readdemography.bsky.social
In their Washington Post Op-Ed--"In Rural America, More Women Are Saying 'I Don't'" (wapo.st/42SavfP) --Shelley Clark & @ruraldemography.bsky.social draw from the Demo article "Are Rural Areas Holdouts in the Second Demographic Transition?" @westernu.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...
Opinion | In rural America, more women are saying ‘I don’t’
Do the Trump administration’s transportation guidelines disproportionately benefit small-town families?
wapo.st
6 13

by Shelley Clark

shelleydclark.bsky.social
#sociology #demography
shelleydclark.bsky.social
Shelley Clark @shelleydclark.bsky.social · Feb 12
I'm in the @washingtonpost.com today with my coauthor @ruraldemography.bsky.social Matthew Brooks talking about marriage and childbearing in rural America— and the outdated stereotypes that seem to be informing the new Trump transportation policy.
@mcgillumedia.bsky.social

wapo.st/42SavfP
1/3
Opinion | In rural America, more women are saying ‘I don’t’
Do the Trump administration’s transportation guidelines disproportionately benefit small-town families?
wapo.st
1 10

by Shelley Clark

shelleydclark.bsky.social
Some takeaways: In rural America, marriage has fallen faster, cohabitation has risen faster, birth rates have fallen faster, and divorce rates have fallen more slowly than in urban America. Unlike in the past, substantially more rural than urban children (54 vs 45%) are born outside marriage.

3/3
1 17 53

by Shelley Clark

shelleydclark.bsky.social
Some of the research we draw on in the op-ed was published in @readdemography.bsky.social Demography as "Are Rural Areas Holdouts in the Second Demographic Transition? Evidence From Canada and the United States"

read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

2/3
Are Rural Areas Holdouts in the Second Demographic Transition? Evidence From Canada and the United States | Demography | Duke University Press
read.dukeupress.edu
1 2 22

by Shelley Clark

shelleydclark.bsky.social
I'm in the @washingtonpost.com today with my coauthor @ruraldemography.bsky.social Matthew Brooks talking about marriage and childbearing in rural America— and the outdated stereotypes that seem to be informing the new Trump transportation policy.
@mcgillumedia.bsky.social

wapo.st/42SavfP
1/3
Opinion | In rural America, more women are saying ‘I don’t’
Do the Trump administration’s transportation guidelines disproportionately benefit small-town families?
wapo.st
6 27 62

References

Fields & subjects

Updated 1m