Paul Krugman
Paul Robin Krugman is an American New Keynesian economist who is the Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center… more
by Paul Krugman
China Has Overtaken America
And Trump’s policies guarantee that we will never catch up In 1957 the Soviet Union put the first man-made satellite — Sputnik — into orbit. The U.S. response was close to panic: The Cold War was at its coldest, and there were widespread fears that the Soviets were taking the lead in science and technology.
by Paul Krugman
How Trump Is Making China Great
Why we’re going to lose the trade war, and much more besides Six months ago Donald Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs — huge tariffs imposed on just about every nation. As everyone noted, this announcement suddenly brought average tariffs back to 1934 levels. Less widely noted was the fact that the long decline in tariff rates over the previous 90 years had been achieved through many rounds of internation…
by Paul Krugman
Technology Bubbles: Causes and Consequences
What history can teach us about AI frenzy It was a time of enormous optimism, based mainly on one specific technology that promised to have transformative effects on the economy. Businesses developing and implementing the new technology spent huge sums on construction and equipment. Individual investors piled into these businesses’ stocks, sending their prices soaring.
by Paul Krugman
Talking AI With Martin Wolf
In which we admit to being confused On Wednesday we had a terrific panel discussion about AI at the CUNY Graduate Center, which will eventually be available on YouTube. I had hoped to continue the discussion with some participants for this week’s video, but the logistics fell through. So
by Paul Krugman — Reposted by Greg Linden
"in many ways the level of the tariffs is less important than the huge uncertainty Trump’s policies have created. And that uncertainty hasn’t abated at all."
Ya don't say. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/leprechaun...
by Paul Krugman
Leprechauns, Effective Tariffs and Inflation
Yes, tariffs are hurting us. No, Trump wasn’t right. Lately there’s been a lot of chatter that economists were wrong about Trump’s tariffs. Didn’t the economists predict that we would be stuck in a recession with runaway inflation by now? So maybe Trump was right after all?
by Paul Krugman
Bailing out Bessent’s Buddies’ Bets on Argentina
Trump bails out hedge funds’ failed bets on Milei while his foreign aid cuts will kill millions of children The Trump administration really hates giving foreign aid that serves any kind of humanitarian purpose. They are clearly unmoved by the fact that that they may be responsible for the preventable deaths of millions of children in impoverished countries.
Reposted by Paul Krugman
by Paul Krugman
Why Aren’t We Partying Like It’s 1999?
Fear, not hope, permeates today’s technology hype Economic reality has a habit of throwing you curveballs — events you didn’t anticipate when making your predictions. Specifically, most economists, myself included, expected tariffs to be the big economic story of 2025. After all, in just a few months Donald Trump has reversed 90 years of pro-trade U.S. policy, sending average tariffs to their
by Paul Krugman
State Terror, American Style
Forget about “soft autocracy” Over the weekend I talked to a couple of people, people who generally try to keep abreast of the news, about the Chicago apartment raid last Tuesday — and discovered that they hadn’t heard about it. And that’s extremely worrying. It suggests that many people don’t realize how fast and aggressively the Trump administration is moving to end rule of law an…
by Paul Krugman
Tech and the Wealth of Nations
Does every country need to have a Silicon Valley? Last week’s primer was about the European economy. In it I took aim at the conventional wisdom that the European economy is moribund and turning into a museum of past glories. While I argued that reports of its slide into economic oblivion are exaggerated, I also acknowledged that Europe is lagging far behind both the United States and China in tech. That lag is central to the warnings issued by Mario Draghi in his
by Paul Krugman
Talking With Jonathan Cohn
The coming premium apocalypse, the shutdown, and more Thanks in part to enhanced subsidies, more than 24 million Americans now get health insurance through the exchanges established by the Affordable Care Act. But those enhanced subsidies expire Dec. 31, which will be apocalyptic for many people; and Democrats have made extending them their key demand in the shutdown fight.
by Paul Krugman
Declining American Democracy: Trump is a Symptom, Not the Cause
The modern GOP is inherently authoritarian It’s now undeniable that American democracy is in very big trouble. An autocratic president, abetted by collaborators in the Supreme Court and the Republican party, is actively attempting to use the military, the Justice Department, regulatory agencies, trade policy, voting rolls, federal spending, and any other weapon he can get his hands on to punish …
by Paul Krugman
An Autocracy of Dunces
How stone-faced generals, Wall Street pushback, and a government shutdown may save America’s quickly declining democracy If America still had a fully functioning democracy, Donald Trump’s speech Tuesday to the assembled generals would have ended his presidency. Trump treated the event like a political rally and was clearly taken aback by the refusal of the audience to applaud or laugh at his jokes. Delivering a nakedly partisan speech to a mandated assembly of military of…
Reposted by Paul Krugman, Janet Gornick
by Paul Krugman
Fossil Fuels and Fossilized Minds
What’s driving the doomed attempt to revive coal? I’ve just gotten back from the Netherlands, which is famous for its picturesque windmills. But wind power in Holland is more than a historical curiosity. There are also modern wind turbines almost everywhere you look, both onshore and off. And the ground is covered with dead birds and whales.
by Paul Krugman
Understanding the Coming Premium Apocalypse
Why health insurance is about to become unaffordable I’m writing this quickly, because of travel: If all goes well, I’ll be somewhere over the Atlantic when this post goes up. But I thought I’d write something about what Democrats are demanding as their price for avoiding a federal government shutdown, why I think that’s the right issue, and why Republicans probably won’t agree.
by Paul Krugman
Notes on Europe’s Economy
Reports of its death are greatly exaggerated I’m flying back to New York tomorrow after several weeks in the Netherlands. Alas, I felt obliged to devote a significant part of my time here to writing about Donald Trump. And while I had many meetings with students, academics and government officials, much of what they wanted to talk about was … Donald Trump.
by Paul Krugman
Talking (Again) With G. Elliott Morris
What polls are and aren't telling us right now I’ve become an avid consumer of G. Elliott Morris’s Strength in Numbers. Morris is doing data journalism really well, not just putting the numbers together but giving them context. So I checked in with him on the eve of a likely shutdown. Transcript follows:
by Paul Krugman
Another Break Day
Your regular programming will resume shortly Between meetings, speeches, and actually trying to experience some life here, I really couldn’t get a post together, although it’s tempting to say something about the bonfire of the bathroom vanities:
by Paul Krugman
Why Is Trump Bailing Out Argentina?
This is about ideology and Trumpian fealty, not America’s interests In its dealings with other countries, Donald Trump’s administration is following a clear agenda of undermining liberal values, fomenting discord and withdrawing critical financial support. One of the administration’s first acts was to drastically cut funding for the U.S. Agency for International Development, then
by Paul Krugman
Is the Jimmy Kimmel Saga a Sign that the Tide is Turning?
Why we may not be Russia or Hungary It’s irrefutable now: Trump is nakedly following the playbook of autocrats like Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orban. As his poll numbers fall, he is rushing to lock in permanent power by punishing his opponents and intimidating everyone else into submission. Craven congressional Republicans and a complicit Supreme Court have abetted Trump’s destruction of o…
by Paul Krugman
Break Day
Life sometimes gets in the way This overseas visit is a mix of vacation and work, and this week I’m having a lot of meetings, giving speeches etc, while Robin and I have also tried to do a bit of living. So nothing today. I think I’ll be able to post tomorrow.
by Paul Krugman
Women, Men and Jobs
Men are in trouble. Are women responsible? Last week I published two posts inspired by the murder of Charlie Kirk. Both focused on one key part of his message and, I’d argue, his appeal: gender politics. Kirk passionately advocated a return to long-gone traditional gender norms, in which women married early and focused on having children, not on building careers. That is, he wanted to reverse the “quiet revolution” in women’s lives identified by Claudia Goldin, in which young women’s decisions about education and work began to resemble those of young men.
by Paul Krugman
Karen Attiah
Talking with the journalist the Washington Post fired for being honest After Charlie Kirk was murdered, Karen Attiah — editor of the Washington Post’s Global Opinions, and its last full-time Black opinion writer — was fired for social media posts in which she said she refused to “tear my clothes and smear ashes on my face in performative mourning for a white man that espoused violence.” She didn’t espouse violence or celeb…