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Olga Oliker

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by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Absolutely. Excellent point.

by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Absolutely. The question is who is driving what bits of policy and what happens when they pull in their different directions, especially given all the other vagaries of that particular system.
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by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
I think everyone's adapting. What I want to know is whether they're adapting appropriately, & making the right judgements about how the other (& perhaps other potential adversaries) is adapting/may yet adapt.

by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
I think super important to track what they're saying about what they fear, what they think war looks like, & what they think adversaries will do, as well as what they themselves hope to do & what they actually do. Also crucial to track the disconnects between these & whether & when they narrow. 7/7
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by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Relatedly, I was struck by @massdara.bsky.social's description of all the whiz-bangy things Russia thinks will be possible with drones & AI. It reminds me of the creative thinking I've seen over decades following Russian military writing. In line with Adamsky, most of this stuff never happens. 6/7
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by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Further, as Dima Adamsky has written, there's a certain comfort in Russia with disconnects between theory & practice. But just because it's comfortable, doesn't mean it translates into effectiveness. 5/7
The Culture of Military Innovation | Stanford University Press
This book studies the impact of cultural factors on the course of military innovations. One would expect that countries accustomed to similar technologies would undergo analogous changes in their perc...
www.sup.org
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by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
The strategic culture may just be sticky: it could shift in time. But as @massdara.bsky.social notes, Russia's history of military learning is patchy, & as @gabrielairosa.bsky.social describes, strategic culture is hard to shift, perhaps especially in Russia. 4/7
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by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Meanwhile, @massdara.bsky.social describes folks on the front lines & those responsible for putting them there learning from the present & looking to the future of high-tech warfare & new ways of fighting, albeit facing some of Russia's usual military pathologies. So there's some disconnect. 3/7
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by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Per @gabrielairosa.bsky.social, Moscow's strategic culture is still looking to a very big (& thus very short) war with NATO, & old school ways of doing things. 2/7
www.cna.org
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by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Really interesting analysis from @massdara.bsky.social on what Russian military is learning, & its learning challenges. Paired with @gabrielairosa.bsky.social's recent work on Russian strategic thinking & threat perceptions www.cna.org/analyses/202..., it's got me thinking. So join me in a 🧵 1/7
How Russia Recovered
What the Kremlin is learning from the war in Ukraine.
www.foreignaffairs.com
1 5 17

by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
The logic of Russian military assistance (including deployments of Wagner and Africa Corps), explained in a short video, with excellent maps, from @crisisgroup.org w/the erudite Pauline Bax narrating! www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0yI...
MAPPING CONFLICT | Russia’s Growing Influence in Africa
YouTube video by International Crisis Group
www.youtube.com
4 9

Reposted by Olga Oliker

mwhanna.crisisgroup.org
On this week’s episode, I joined Richard Atwood along with my colleagues @mairavz.bsky.social @maxji.bsky.social and Amjad Iraqi to discuss Trump’s Gaza ceasefire proposals and next steps.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
What to Make of Trump’s Gaza Plan? | International Crisis Group
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Crisis Group experts Michael Hanna, Max Rodenbeck, Amjad Iraqi and Mairav Zonszein about Donald Trump’s proposed Gaza peace plan, who might benefit fro...
www.crisisgroup.org
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by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Really important stuff from @gabrielairosa.bsky.social & CNA. Our own assumptions about what others think are bound to get things wrong. Always a good idea to go to the sources. Read the thread, then read the report!
gabrielairosa.bsky.social
Gabriela I. Rosa @gabrielairosa.bsky.social · 13d
In this new @CNA_org report, I analyze how authoritative figures in the Russian mil view threats in the wake of the war in Ukraine. The key insight: Traditional Russian threat perceptions haven't shifted — they've been sharpened. 1/?
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
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Reposted by Olga Oliker

gabrielairosa.bsky.social
In this new @CNA_org report, I analyze how authoritative figures in the Russian mil view threats in the wake of the war in Ukraine. The key insight: Traditional Russian threat perceptions haven't shifted — they've been sharpened. 1/?
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
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by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Kayla has been there and done that and knows things.
kwilliams101.bsky.social
Kayla Williams @kwilliams101.bsky.social · 15d
Random thoughts on Hegseth speech:
- Having done both old-school Army PT and yoga, I would pay a thousand dollars to watch an infantry platoon get absolutely fucking smoked in a hot yoga class
1/
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Reposted by Olga Oliker

kwilliams101.bsky.social
Random thoughts on Hegseth speech:
- Having done both old-school Army PT and yoga, I would pay a thousand dollars to watch an infantry platoon get absolutely fucking smoked in a hot yoga class
1/
3 39 170

by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Moldova's parliamentary elections have given ruling party PAS a mandate to keep on keeping on with European integration and EU accession. But there's still a lot of work to do, and some substantial challenges to overcome. My @crisisgroup.org colleague Marta Mucznik explains.
Moldova Votes EU, but Obstacles Clutter Path to Membership | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group expert Marta Mucznik analyses the victory in parliamentary polls of the country’s pro-European integration party and the next steps in the accession process
www.crisisgroup.org
2 10

by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Tell me again how gender (& especially gender performance) isn't relevant to politics (foreign and domestic).
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by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
On the new @crisisgroup.org Hold Your Fire podcast, I join host Richard Atwood, @luciankim.bsky.social, & @stevepomper.bsky.social to talk Trump's changing rhetoric on Ukraine, how dynamics look from Kyiv, & airspace incursions in Europe. We don't figure it all out, but we cover a lot! Listen in!
What to Make of Trump’s Ukraine Diplomacy? | International Crisis Group
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Lucian Kim, Olga Oliker, and Stephen Pomper about battlefield developments in Ukraine, the Trump administration's diplomatic effo...
www.crisisgroup.org
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by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
☺️ Thanks, Kim!
kimberlymarten.bsky.social
Kimberly Marten @kimberlymarten.bsky.social · 20d
Terrific new @meduza.io “Naked Pravda” podcast from @olyaoliker.bsky.social does the best job I’ve seen of laying out the strategic interaction implications of Russia’s airspace incursions and NATO’s possible responses: meduza.io/en/episodes/...
Here’s what you do when Russia won’t stay out of your airspace — Meduza
In recent weeks, Estonia, Poland, and Romania have reported breaches of their airspace by Russian aircraft. Just this week, Norway revealed that Russian aircraft have violated its airspace three times...
meduza.io
3

Reposted by Olga Oliker

kimberlymarten.bsky.social
Terrific new @meduza.io “Naked Pravda” podcast from @olyaoliker.bsky.social does the best job I’ve seen of laying out the strategic interaction implications of Russia’s airspace incursions and NATO’s possible responses: meduza.io/en/episodes/...
Here’s what you do when Russia won’t stay out of your airspace — Meduza
In recent weeks, Estonia, Poland, and Romania have reported breaches of their airspace by Russian aircraft. Just this week, Norway revealed that Russian aircraft have violated its airspace three times...
meduza.io
3

Reposted by Olga Oliker, Matthew Bunn

francoisdm.bsky.social
🚨 JUST IN: President Donald Trump has an opportunity to avoid the dangers of an unrestrained nuclear arms competition—something he has repeatedly warned about. Will he seize it?

Latest by Matt Bunn (@matthew-bunn.bsky.social) in @thebulletin.org

#nuclearweapons #nukesky #Trump #Putin #China
Putin just gave Trump the opportunity to maintain nuclear restraint. Will he seize it?
Extending New START will also give time for Trump to work with Russia and China on future arms control accords.
thebulletin.org
2 9 5

by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Always a pleasure
2

Reposted by Olga Oliker

kevinrothrock.me
In a new episode of The Naked Pravda, I speak to @olyaoliker.bsky.social about Russia’s escalating incursions into NATO airspace and how today’s tensions compare to the incident a decade ago when Turkey downed a Russian bomber in Syria. meduza.io/en/episodes/...
Here’s what you do when Russia won’t stay out of your airspace — Meduza
In recent weeks, Estonia, Poland, and Romania have reported breaches of their airspace by Russian aircraft. Just this week, Norway revealed that Russian aircraft have violated its airspace three times...
meduza.io
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by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
I like Vienna less. Embarrassed to admit I've yet to visit Edinburgh.

by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Greatest is a high bar, but gotta say that I like it here.
london.gov.uk
Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan @london.gov.uk · 22d
I’ve said it once, I’ll say it again.

Ignore the haters, London is the 🐐
Graphic with the headline “London is the greatest city in the world” set against a bright view of the River Thames with the Shard, Tower Bridge and the city skyline. The text celebrates what makes London special: regularly voted the number one city in the world, incredible diversity with over 300 languages spoken, world-class transport, world leader in finance tech and life sciences, best museums and galleries many free to visit, world-leading nightlife, food sport and music for every taste, host to the world’s best sporting events, home to seven Premier League clubs, globally-ranked universities, a city where you can be yourself and love who you love, and a place for everyone.
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Reposted by Olga Oliker, Sara B. Hobolt, Scott L. Greer , and 8 more

london.gov.uk
I’ve said it once, I’ll say it again.

Ignore the haters, London is the 🐐
Graphic with the headline “London is the greatest city in the world” set against a bright view of the River Thames with the Shard, Tower Bridge and the city skyline. The text celebrates what makes London special: regularly voted the number one city in the world, incredible diversity with over 300 languages spoken, world-class transport, world leader in finance tech and life sciences, best museums and galleries many free to visit, world-leading nightlife, food sport and music for every taste, host to the world’s best sporting events, home to seven Premier League clubs, globally-ranked universities, a city where you can be yourself and love who you love, and a place for everyone.
200 1K 4.3K

by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
New @crisisgroup.org War & Peace podcast starts our 7th season with Belarus, Zapad, & drone warnings. Elissa Jobson & I also ask @kavaleuski.bsky.social whether Lukashenka really thinks he can get space from Moscow by talking to Washington, what prospects exist for political transition, & more!
Elliptical Orbit? Belarusian Foreign Policy in Fraught Times | International Crisis Group
This week on War & Peace, Olga and Elissa speak with Valery Kavaleuski, former Belarusian diplomat and Executive Director of the Euro-Atlantic Affairs Agency, about Minsk’s foreign policy, its recent ...
www.crisisgroup.org
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by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Letting the treaty just die of its wounds would be bad. This doesn't save it, but creates more space to discuss options for same or other limits in future. Plus it puts onus on US to publicly say yes, we, too, don't want to see the arsenal grow in the next year (even though it wouldn't anyway).
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by Olga Oliker

olyaoliker.bsky.social
Frankly, each situation is different & empty threats are worse than no threats. So. Better to avoid blanket policies & build & maintain capacity to implement a range of options. Then, each time, you balance costs & benefits, make a choice, & prepare for the inevitable second-guessing after. 6/6
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