John Eric Humphries

NBER

@nber.org

Eviction has spillover effects on children, with particularly negative effects for boys and older kids. These effects may be moderated by access to family support networks, from Collinson, Dutz, @johneric.bsky.social, Mader, Tannenbaum, and van Dijk https://www.nber.org/papers/w33659

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Reposted by John Eric Humphries

Megan Stevenson

@meganstevenson.bsky.social

Paper🧵!

We....

1) develop a framework for identification w/ multiple treatments in a judge IV design
2) find that felony conviction (without incarceration) increases recidivism relative to dismissal

with @johneric.bsky.social Aurelie Ouss @winnievd.bsky.social and Kamelia Stavreva
1/

This a screenshot of the abstract of our paper, called Conviction, Incarceration and Recidivism: Understanding the Revolving Door. It says "Noncarceral conviction is a common outcome of criminal court cases: for every individual
incarcerated, there are approximately three who were recently convicted but not sentenced to
prison or jail. We extend the binary-treatment judge IV framework to settings with multiple
treatments and use it to study the consequences of noncarceral conviction. We outline
assumptions under which widely-used 2SLS regressions recover margin-specific treatment
effects, relate these assumptions to models of judge decision-making, and derive an expression
that provides intuition about the direction and magnitude of asymptotic bias when a key
assumption on judge decision-making is not met. We find that noncarceral conviction (relative
to dismissal) leads to a large and long-lasting increase in recidivism for felony defendants in
Virginia. In contrast, incarceration (relative to noncarceral conviction) leads to a short-run
reduction in recidivism, consistent with incapacitation. Our empirical results suggest that
noncarceral felony conviction is an important and overlooked driver of recidivism."

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Reposted by John Eric Humphries

by John Eric Humphries — Reposted by John Eric Humphries, Nathan Nunn

John Eric Humphries

@johneric.bsky.social

Jason Abaluck and I are organizing the Cowles Labor and Public Economics Conference at Yale, June 2-3. Submit your papers by March 24: cowles.yale.edu/conferences/...

@jabaluck.bsky.social

Cowles Summer Conference Paper Submission Form

cowles.yale.edu

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by John Eric Humphries — Reposted by John Eric Humphries

Reposted by John Eric Humphries

by John Eric Humphries

Reposted by John Eric Humphries

References

Fields & subjects