Super news for @brownuresearch.bsky.social and all. Let us all appreciate growth-openness link. Aghion at the news conference said he is worried about the protectionist wave and warned against obstacles for growth such as deglobalization and tariffs! He said openness is a driver of economic growth!
Reposted by Ṣebnem Kalemli‐Özcan
The not-a-Nobel-but-we're-gonna-treat-it-like-a-Nobel in economics goes to
Joel Mokyr "for having identified the prerequisites for sustained growth through technological progress"
Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt "for the theory of sustained growth through creative destruction"
Joel Mokyr "for having identified the prerequisites for sustained growth through technological progress"
Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt "for the theory of sustained growth through creative destruction"
My new PS column argues that financial markets complacency in the face of US policy uncertainty is profitable for them:
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/m...
www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/m...
Financial Investors Can’t Profit From Complacency Forever
Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan argues that bond-market participants and others are consciously choosing to ignore obvious policy risks.
www.project-syndicate.org
It was an honor to do a fire side chat with Raghuram Rajan at this amazing conference in Chicago: chicagobooth.edu/research/fam...
Finance for small firms and private sector development is more important than ever in a world where big actors like the US chose isolation over integration.
Finance for small firms and private sector development is more important than ever in a world where big actors like the US chose isolation over integration.
Schedule
Teaser Data: Lorem Ipsum is simply dummy text of the printing and typesetting industry. Lorem Ipsum has been the industry's standard dummy text ever since the 1500s
chicagobooth.edu
My septemeber PS piece on strongmen and interest rates: www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t...
Why Do Populist Strongmen Love Low Interest Rates?
Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan points out that populists often view central banks as a tool to mask the effects of their misguided policies.
www.project-syndicate.org
Reposted by Ṣebnem Kalemli‐Özcan
Administrative data on international portfolios shows that issuers' supply elasticity depends on how investors' demand elasticity changes with arbitrage deviations, from Bertaut, Faia, @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social, Marchesini, Paetzold, and Schmitz https://www.nber.org/papers/w34275
Reposted by Ṣebnem Kalemli‐Özcan
Save the date! On April 16 at 4:30pm, economist @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social will deliver a public lecture on the economic impact of international tariffs and industrial policies under the Trump administration. Event details and registration here: loom.ly/LlN6U3c
Special Event | Trade and Inflation in a Fragmented World (In Person)
This event is open to the public and will be recorded. Please register below.
loom.ly
Thrilled to talk about emerging market monetary policies and financial stability at this great conference organized by
FLAR and hosted by Central Bank of Colombia: eventos.flar.net/annual-econo...
FLAR and hosted by Central Bank of Colombia: eventos.flar.net/annual-econo...
Annual Economic Studies Conference 2025 – Eventos FLAR
eventos.flar.net
It was a pleasure to join the world trade dialogue! We need to navigate global uncertainty created by US policies to de-globalize and eliminate knowledge-based economies by diminishing universities. Global integration led to unprecented progress, lifting billions up. studiozx.de/events/world...
Reposted by Ṣebnem Kalemli‐Özcan
Credit support policies in the form of credit guarantees and central bank credit lines can help firms substitute in the event of evaporating external credit for domestic borrowing.
Miguel Acosta-Henao, Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez, @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Miguel Acosta-Henao, Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez, @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Thank you Bank of Finland for inviting me to give a talk on tariffs and monetary policy, fantastic papers and conference:
www.suomenpankki.fi/en/news-and-...
www.suomenpankki.fi/en/news-and-...
Bank of Finland and CEPR Joint Conference on Frontiers of Monetary Economics in the 21st century: Where and Where to?
The Bank of Finland builds financial stability. A stable price level, safe payment systems and a reliable financial system promote sustainable economic growth, employment and the well-being of Finns.
www.suomenpankki.fi
Thanks to all the presenters, discussants, organizers and our host CBRT for making our @nber.org conference an amazing event!
Gita Gopinath's keynote posted here: imf.org/en/News/Arti...
Videos of all the papers and the policy panel will be posted soon, here:
nber.org/conferences/...
Gita Gopinath's keynote posted here: imf.org/en/News/Arti...
Videos of all the papers and the policy panel will be posted soon, here:
nber.org/conferences/...
Steering through the Fog: The Art and Science of Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets
The economic effects of these developments are expected to be sizeable. Our World Economic Outlook ‘reference scenario’ projects that tariffs will reduce both global and emerging market (EM) output gr...
imf.org
Reposted by Ṣebnem Kalemli‐Özcan
New CEPR Discussion Paper - DP20168
Global Networks, Monetary Policy, #Trade
@kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social, Can Soylu, Muhammed A. Yıldırım
Access the paper and accompanying slides free! cepr.org/publications...
#CEPR_IMF #CEPR_ITRE #CEPR_MEF #CEPR_MG
Global Networks, Monetary Policy, #Trade
@kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social, Can Soylu, Muhammed A. Yıldırım
Access the paper and accompanying slides free! cepr.org/publications...
#CEPR_IMF #CEPR_ITRE #CEPR_MEF #CEPR_MG
Work with us at globallinkages.org Be part of our colloborative hub, take part in research, seeking answers to global challenges, promoting evidence based international economic policies for global welfare. Our post-doc and pre-doc positions:
apply.interfolio.com/165825
apply.interfolio.com/166437
apply.interfolio.com/165825
apply.interfolio.com/166437
Global Linkages Lab
Global Linkages Lab at Brown University
globallinkages.org
Reposted by Ṣebnem Kalemli‐Özcan
Tariffs can be stagflationary in a global general equilibrium setting. The net impact of tariffs on inflation, employment, and the US dollar depends on the policy response of all countries in the trade war, from @kalemli-ozcan.bsky.social, Soylu, and Yildirim https://www.nber.org/papers/w33686
We are excited to announce that GLL is now live! www.globallinkages.org
GLL explores globalization—and the costs of trying to undo it. We undertake, fund cutting-edge research, support collaboration, deliver insights to guide evidence based policy making for inclusive global growth and welfare.
GLL explores globalization—and the costs of trying to undo it. We undertake, fund cutting-edge research, support collaboration, deliver insights to guide evidence based policy making for inclusive global growth and welfare.
Global Linkages Lab
Global Linkages Lab at Brown University
www.globallinkages.org
In a new paper, we build a new NKOE global network model and decompose the impact of tariffs on inflation, output, and exchange rate into channels of demand, supply, monetary policy, sectoral nominal rigidities, inflation-exchange rate expectations and global I-O linkages channels.
Tariff-Threats that are later reversed and not implemented are self-defeating, leading to a 4.1\% appreciation of the USD, 0.6pp deflation, a 0.7 pp decline in output. US. Dollar appreciates less or can even depreciate under tariff threats, and increased global uncertainty due to these threats.
Liberation Day Tariffs+Retalation can lead to a decline of ↓ 1.6 pp in US output, an increase of ↑ 0.8 pp in US inflation and also a USD NEER Appreciation of 4.8%.
Our new paper builds a NKOE model to study interaction of monetary policy and trade frictions. Tariffs act as demand and supply shocks and lead to endogenous changes in global networks. Their impact depends on monetary policy's endogenous response both in tariff-putting and tariff-imposed countries.
How do different risk premia for currency, policy and country interact? Which one matters for investors? A key question given increased U.S. policy uncertainty. My op-ed @FT explains : www.ft.com/content/600d...
Markets are reaching for the Turkish risk premium
Technocrats can contain short-term financial panic but only democratic integrity will sustain investor confidence
www.ft.com
Thank you so much WorldBank and IFC for the launch of this great book and fantastic panel. How to finance firm growth is one of the key issues of our time especially for countries who need this most and suffer from high policy risk, here is the video:
www.ifc.org/en/events/20...
www.ifc.org/en/events/20...
Capital Markets: Financing Firm Growth
Join and explore future World Bank Group collaboration on capital markets development. Delve into the findings of the new book Financing Firm Growth: The Role of Capital Markets in Low- and Middle-Inc...
www.ifc.org
Reposted by Ṣebnem Kalemli‐Özcan
Featured in the latest Digest: "Government Support and Corporate Debt Restructuring"
https://www.nber.org/digest/202503/government-support-and-corporate-debt-restructuring
https://www.nber.org/digest/202503/government-support-and-corporate-debt-restructuring
Looking forward!
Stand Up for Science rallies will be held in DC and state capitals on March 7th. Share with friends. Sign-up here to get email updates with details: www.eventbrite.com/e/stand-up-f...
STAND UP FOR SCIENCE 2025 - DC and NATIONWIDE
Stand up for science with us on March 7th, 2025, because science is for everyone! More info at www.standupforscience2025.org
www.eventbrite.com
Our work on inflation is cited by 2025 President's Report "robust demand coinciding with massive negative supply shocks put upward pressure on prices (Bernanke and Blanchard; di Giovanni et al.)" whitehouse.gov/cea/written-... We made this point first in 2022 ECB-Sintra (youtube.com/watch?v=Vk5V...)
The 2025 Economic Report of the President | CEA | The White House
Today, the Council of Economic Advisers under the leadership of Chair Jared Bernstein released the 2025 Economic Report of the President, the 79th report since the establishment of CEA in 1946. The 20...
whitehouse.gov
It is great to talk to amazing @colbylsmith.bsky.social of the @data.ft.com. I will be discussing the macro effects of upcoming tariffs at ASSA2025, during my discussion of the fantastic paper by Gita Gopinath, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Andrea Presbitero and Petia Topalova.
ft.com/content/d6f5...
ft.com/content/d6f5...
Donald Trump’s ‘Maganomics’ will damage growth, economists tell FT polls
On both sides of Atlantic, most surveyed claim protectionist shift will overshadow benefits of other policies
ft.com
Reposted by Ṣebnem Kalemli‐Özcan, Anson Au
Using data on Chilean firms to examine whether credit lines and government-backed credit guarantees mitigated the impact of the withdrawal of international capital during the pandemic, from Acosta-Henao, Fernández, Gomez-Gonzalez, and Kalemli-Özcan https://www.nber.org/papers/w33283
