#Markets #Rates #FX #Equities
**Ziggo (main)**
+2.5–3pts on Liberty Global/VodafoneZiggo stake chatter (€1bn).
ZIGGO 5.25 33 98/99 (+3)
**Teamsystem**
Finally bid, +1.5pt.
TITANL 5 31 93.25/94
**Ziggo (main)**
+2.5–3pts on Liberty Global/VodafoneZiggo stake chatter (€1bn).
ZIGGO 5.25 33 98/99 (+3)
**Teamsystem**
Finally bid, +1.5pt.
TITANL 5 31 93.25/94
Every day another wave of possible AI-mageddon casualties.
1) SaaS providers, 2) wealth managers, 3) logistics firms.
Who’s next? Nobody knows, but violent rotation continue!
Every day another wave of possible AI-mageddon casualties.
1) SaaS providers, 2) wealth managers, 3) logistics firms.
Who’s next? Nobody knows, but violent rotation continue!
Study finds roughly 90% of 25' tariff costs were shouldered by US Biz & households in first 11 months 😱
Pass‑through eases later but the bill stays domestic while Treasury coffers grow. Inflation? a one‑off blip
Study finds roughly 90% of 25' tariff costs were shouldered by US Biz & households in first 11 months 😱
Pass‑through eases later but the bill stays domestic while Treasury coffers grow. Inflation? a one‑off blip
Insurance Brokers down 9%, spreads +10bps in 3 weeks.
📉 Sectors related to knowledge work, analytical, IT or data services came
under pressure. Within the IG index these include Software, Data Providers, BDCs, etc.
BUT it is missing 🧵
Insurance Brokers down 9%, spreads +10bps in 3 weeks.
📉 Sectors related to knowledge work, analytical, IT or data services came
under pressure. Within the IG index these include Software, Data Providers, BDCs, etc.
BUT it is missing 🧵
💼 More PE-backed firms deferred cash interest for a 3rd straight quarter, signaling rising stress
📉 in Q4, 11% paid interest in kind; 58% of those were “bad pik”
📊 Bad PIK rose to 6.4% of private loans (from 6.1% in Q3), above 2.5% in late 2021!
💼 More PE-backed firms deferred cash interest for a 3rd straight quarter, signaling rising stress
📉 in Q4, 11% paid interest in kind; 58% of those were “bad pik”
📊 Bad PIK rose to 6.4% of private loans (from 6.1% in Q3), above 2.5% in late 2021!
But they can't agree on WHY
>AI will disrupt everything and destroy companies?
>AI spending is a bubble that won't deliver returns?
These 2 fears CAN'T both be true. But crushing stocks!
🔴$1.5tn wiped from Tech
🔴MSFT down 20%+
🔴Amazon longest losing streak in 20yr
But they can't agree on WHY
>AI will disrupt everything and destroy companies?
>AI spending is a bubble that won't deliver returns?
These 2 fears CAN'T both be true. But crushing stocks!
🔴$1.5tn wiped from Tech
🔴MSFT down 20%+
🔴Amazon longest losing streak in 20yr
📉 spreads near flat (+1bp); alphabet printed, capped by a gbp century
📊 mixed macro; ai equity swings hit rates; usd yields ~15bp lower
🌊 flows firmer: steadier ig demand; ongoing us/europe equity inflows
🏦 primary ~€18bn (half corps/half fins); thinnest books this year; nics ~0bp
📉 spreads near flat (+1bp); alphabet printed, capped by a gbp century
📊 mixed macro; ai equity swings hit rates; usd yields ~15bp lower
🌊 flows firmer: steadier ig demand; ongoing us/europe equity inflows
🏦 primary ~€18bn (half corps/half fins); thinnest books this year; nics ~0bp
TECHNICALS
👉 Despite broad spillovers from AI‑disruption theme, Credit has remained resilient (again!)
👉TECHNICALS have stayed firm, supported by uninterrupted inflows
👉 Steadily declining rates‑vol and an attractive yield
TECHNICALS
👉 Despite broad spillovers from AI‑disruption theme, Credit has remained resilient (again!)
👉TECHNICALS have stayed firm, supported by uninterrupted inflows
👉 Steadily declining rates‑vol and an attractive yield
>Insurance brokers Mon
>Wealth advisors Tues
>Real estate services Wed
>Logistics Thurs
Most obvious catalyst to reverse "AI-awe to AI-poor" rotation?
If Hyperscaler announces capex cut. Doesn't look we're heading this way 👇
x.com/ZeGoodTrade...
>Insurance brokers Mon
>Wealth advisors Tues
>Real estate services Wed
>Logistics Thurs
Most obvious catalyst to reverse "AI-awe to AI-poor" rotation?
If Hyperscaler announces capex cut. Doesn't look we're heading this way 👇
x.com/ZeGoodTrade...
Sell signal remains (started Dec 17)
Driven down by:
• Lighter global equity inflows
• Wider AT1 spreads
• Hedge funds adding oil shorts & VIX longs
What would END sell signal? Feb FMS (Feb 17):
#Positioning
Sell signal remains (started Dec 17)
Driven down by:
• Lighter global equity inflows
• Wider AT1 spreads
• Hedge funds adding oil shorts & VIX longs
What would END sell signal? Feb FMS (Feb 17):
#Positioning
It's not crypto.
It's GOLD. +16.8% YTD - again
Full scoreboard:
🥇 Gold: +16.8%
🥈 Japan equities: +15.8%
🥉 Oil: +12.6%
Meanwhile...
US stocks: +1.3%
Bitcoin: -22.7%
The "risk-on" trade is dead. Old-school assets are winning.
It's not crypto.
It's GOLD. +16.8% YTD - again
Full scoreboard:
🥇 Gold: +16.8%
🥈 Japan equities: +15.8%
🥉 Oil: +12.6%
Meanwhile...
US stocks: +1.3%
Bitcoin: -22.7%
The "risk-on" trade is dead. Old-school assets are winning.
Nothing says "secular bull" more than FX up, stocks up
🇯🇵 Japan '82-'90
🇩🇪 Germany '85-'95
🇨🇳 China '00-'08
But short-term: can't have disorderly yen surge (JPY <145) = hits global liquidity
Nothing says "secular bull" more than FX up, stocks up
🇯🇵 Japan '82-'90
🇩🇪 Germany '85-'95
🇨🇳 China '00-'08
But short-term: can't have disorderly yen surge (JPY <145) = hits global liquidity
AA/A spread compressed to <0.2%
BBB/A spread at 0.3% - lowest since pre-GFC
Corporate credit is screaming "no recession."
But when spreads hit 27-year tights, the question isn't "can they go tighter?"
It's "what happens when they can't?"
AA/A spread compressed to <0.2%
BBB/A spread at 0.3% - lowest since pre-GFC
Corporate credit is screaming "no recession."
But when spreads hit 27-year tights, the question isn't "can they go tighter?"
It's "what happens when they can't?"
Record bond issuance + indiscriminate buying = potential market chaos
Some fear a telecom-2000-style blowout, others worry credit funds will just become "rates products"
$120B in new supply in 26'
Record bond issuance + indiscriminate buying = potential market chaos
Some fear a telecom-2000-style blowout, others worry credit funds will just become "rates products"
$120B in new supply in 26'
Its deal included ultra-rare 100yr that drew nearly 10x more orders than the £1bio offering size 🚀
Its deal included ultra-rare 100yr that drew nearly 10x more orders than the £1bio offering size 🚀
👉 S&P sees 26' EBITDA ~4% (from 5.7%) and Neg FOCF, citing margin pressure from BEV mix and US Adj. Filosa’s turnaround looks costlier—model cancellations, supplier reimbursements, and weaker returns
#Stellantis #CreditDowngrade
👉 S&P sees 26' EBITDA ~4% (from 5.7%) and Neg FOCF, citing margin pressure from BEV mix and US Adj. Filosa’s turnaround looks costlier—model cancellations, supplier reimbursements, and weaker returns
#Stellantis #CreditDowngrade
🏭 Stellantis downgraded by Moody’s to Baa3 and by S&P to BBB-/A-3 as writedowns hit €22B and BEV bets reset
⚠️ Downgrade to HY now a real threat. Pricing between IG & HY
🔍 Doesn't look particularly attractive vs Ford 👇
🏭 Stellantis downgraded by Moody’s to Baa3 and by S&P to BBB-/A-3 as writedowns hit €22B and BEV bets reset
⚠️ Downgrade to HY now a real threat. Pricing between IG & HY
🔍 Doesn't look particularly attractive vs Ford 👇
Past 2 weeks 📉
• S&P Tech -5.6% (AMD -26%, Oracle -23%, MSFT -19%)
• Silver -27%
• Bitcoin -25%
• Rheinmetall -12%
Meanwhile 💹
• EUR IG spreads: +1bp
• EUR HY spreads: +9bp
#CreditMarkets #Investments
Past 2 weeks 📉
• S&P Tech -5.6% (AMD -26%, Oracle -23%, MSFT -19%)
• Silver -27%
• Bitcoin -25%
• Rheinmetall -12%
Meanwhile 💹
• EUR IG spreads: +1bp
• EUR HY spreads: +9bp
#CreditMarkets #Investments
#CreditMarkets #FinancialConditions #Spreads
#CreditMarkets #FinancialConditions #Spreads
Rates vol flirting with Sep '21 lows. 💬
This has become THE leading indicator for EUR credit. 💡
When MOVE spikes, spreads follow. Until then? Buyers win. 💪
Rates vol flirting with Sep '21 lows. 💬
This has become THE leading indicator for EUR credit. 💡
When MOVE spikes, spreads follow. Until then? Buyers win. 💪
EUR IG spreads? Basically flat 📊
The answer is one number: 88th percentile
That's how EASY financial conditions are right now. 💼
Fed cutting + Trump QE + Bessent talking down yields =what's keeping credit glued tight 🏛️💸
Dip-buying is math
EUR IG spreads? Basically flat 📊
The answer is one number: 88th percentile
That's how EASY financial conditions are right now. 💼
Fed cutting + Trump QE + Bessent talking down yields =what's keeping credit glued tight 🏛️💸
Dip-buying is math
It is tapping the USD, GBP & CHF bond markets with:
💵 7x USD tranches incl one 40y bond with a premium of 1.2point% above USTs - chart
🇨🇭 5x CHF tranches incl
💷 5x GBP (inaugural) tr incl one rare 100y bond ❗️
It is tapping the USD, GBP & CHF bond markets with:
💵 7x USD tranches incl one 40y bond with a premium of 1.2point% above USTs - chart
🇨🇭 5x CHF tranches incl
💷 5x GBP (inaugural) tr incl one rare 100y bond ❗️
🔥 Banks Leading a Busy Monday in Primary Markets.
🎤 Top names grabbing the mic: Infineon, Santander UK, BNP, ACAFP, RBI, Swedbank, Fluvio/ADRIT, Balder, Mizuho, RBI & more. Green deals, and covered bonds lighting up the screens.
#Credit #Europe #PrimaryMarkets
🔥 Banks Leading a Busy Monday in Primary Markets.
🎤 Top names grabbing the mic: Infineon, Santander UK, BNP, ACAFP, RBI, Swedbank, Fluvio/ADRIT, Balder, Mizuho, RBI & more. Green deals, and covered bonds lighting up the screens.
#Credit #Europe #PrimaryMarkets
🔁 Lagarde repeated the mantra: data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting
🏦 For credit "good place" = steep front-end yield curves
📈 Gap between French 7-10yr IG Corp bond yields and French household deposit rates is 1.6% – 90th percentile!
🔁 Lagarde repeated the mantra: data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting
🏦 For credit "good place" = steep front-end yield curves
📈 Gap between French 7-10yr IG Corp bond yields and French household deposit rates is 1.6% – 90th percentile!