ZeGoodTrader
zegoodtrader.bsky.social
ZeGoodTrader
@zegoodtrader.bsky.social
20yr Trader, Credit & Macro PM 📚 ex-GS, UBS, BNP, I like to analyze research and help you navigate markets to get your P&L up 📈
#Markets #Rates #FX #Equities
High Yield: solid tape. Buyers ~2:1. Market flat to +25c; a few headline movers.

**Ziggo (main)**
+2.5–3pts on Liberty Global/VodafoneZiggo stake chatter (€1bn).
ZIGGO 5.25 33 98/99 (+3)

**Teamsystem**
Finally bid, +1.5pt.
TITANL 5 31 93.25/94
February 18, 2026 at 5:27 PM
1️⃣ Everyone's freaking out about AI but Credit investors don't care! Why?! 🧵
Every day another wave of possible AI-mageddon casualties.
1) SaaS providers, 2) wealth managers, 3) logistics firms.
Who’s next? Nobody knows, but violent rotation continue!
February 18, 2026 at 1:48 PM
Tariffs don’t hit foreign suppliers the hardest anymore — they hit Americans first ❗

Study finds roughly 90% of 25' tariff costs were shouldered by US Biz & households in first 11 months 😱

Pass‑through eases later but the bill stays domestic while Treasury coffers grow. Inflation? a one‑off blip
February 17, 2026 at 5:36 PM
1️⃣ Markets PANICKING over AI making "knowledge work" obsolete.
Insurance Brokers down 9%, spreads +10bps in 3 weeks.

📉 Sectors related to knowledge work, analytical, IT or data services came
under pressure. Within the IG index these include Software, Data Providers, BDCs, etc.

BUT it is missing 🧵
February 16, 2026 at 10:32 PM
Bad PIK’ is Climbing Again ❗

💼 More PE-backed firms deferred cash interest for a 3rd straight quarter, signaling rising stress
📉 in Q4, 11% paid interest in kind; 58% of those were “bad pik”
📊 Bad PIK rose to 6.4% of private loans (from 6.1% in Q3), above 2.5% in late 2021!
February 16, 2026 at 5:46 PM
Wall Street is terrified of AI 😱
But they can't agree on WHY

>AI will disrupt everything and destroy companies?
>AI spending is a bubble that won't deliver returns?

These 2 fears CAN'T both be true. But crushing stocks!

🔴$1.5tn wiped from Tech
🔴MSFT down 20%+
🔴Amazon longest losing streak in 20yr
February 15, 2026 at 7:51 PM
€€ Credit Recap

📉 spreads near flat (+1bp); alphabet printed, capped by a gbp century
📊 mixed macro; ai equity swings hit rates; usd yields ~15bp lower
🌊 flows firmer: steadier ig demand; ongoing us/europe equity inflows
🏦 primary ~€18bn (half corps/half fins); thinnest books this year; nics ~0bp
February 15, 2026 at 8:28 AM
📊 WHAT'S THE MAIN SUPPORT FOR MARKETS INVESTORS ALWAYS FORGET? 🧵

TECHNICALS

👉 Despite broad spillovers from AI‑disruption theme, Credit has remained resilient (again!)
👉TECHNICALS have stayed firm, supported by uninterrupted inflows
👉 Steadily declining rates‑vol and an attractive yield
February 14, 2026 at 11:33 AM
🔥 AI DISRUPTION WILDFIRE:

>Insurance brokers Mon
>Wealth advisors Tues
>Real estate services Wed
>Logistics Thurs

Most obvious catalyst to reverse "AI-awe to AI-poor" rotation?
If Hyperscaler announces capex cut. Doesn't look we're heading this way 👇
x.com/ZeGoodTrade...
February 14, 2026 at 8:28 AM
📊 BofA BULL & BEAR: Dips to 9.4 from 9.6

Sell signal remains (started Dec 17)

Driven down by:
• Lighter global equity inflows
• Wider AT1 spreads
• Hedge funds adding oil shorts & VIX longs

What would END sell signal? Feb FMS (Feb 17):
#Positioning
February 13, 2026 at 5:57 PM
The best performing asset of 2026 isn't tech 💻

It's not crypto.

It's GOLD. +16.8% YTD - again

Full scoreboard:

🥇 Gold: +16.8%
🥈 Japan equities: +15.8%
🥉 Oil: +12.6%

Meanwhile...
US stocks: +1.3%
Bitcoin: -22.7%

The "risk-on" trade is dead. Old-school assets are winning.
February 13, 2026 at 4:36 PM
February 13, 2026 at 11:46 AM
🌍 JAPAN YEN & NIKKEI: Correlation flipped positive for 1st time since 2005 ❗

Nothing says "secular bull" more than FX up, stocks up

🇯🇵 Japan '82-'90
🇩🇪 Germany '85-'95
🇨🇳 China '00-'08

But short-term: can't have disorderly yen surge (JPY <145) = hits global liquidity
February 13, 2026 at 11:43 AM
A-rated bonds trading tighter than any time since 1997 ❗

AA/A spread compressed to <0.2%
BBB/A spread at 0.3% - lowest since pre-GFC

Corporate credit is screaming "no recession."

But when spreads hit 27-year tights, the question isn't "can they go tighter?"

It's "what happens when they can't?"
February 13, 2026 at 8:12 AM
🚨 Big Tech's AI debt binge is about to crash into a wall of passive fund buyers

Record bond issuance + indiscriminate buying = potential market chaos

Some fear a telecom-2000-style blowout, others worry credit funds will just become "rates products"

$120B in new supply in 26'
February 12, 2026 at 1:48 PM
Alphabet completed ~$32bio in bond sales over 2d & across 3 ccy, the latest in a growing list of blockbuster borrowings to help fund Tech’s $650bio in spending plans for 26' to finance the AI buildout.
Its deal included ultra-rare 100yr that drew nearly 10x more orders than the £1bio offering size 🚀
February 11, 2026 at 7:42 AM
👉 Moody’s expects a longer path to profits with negative FCF in 26'.
👉 S&P sees 26' EBITDA ~4% (from 5.7%) and Neg FOCF, citing margin pressure from BEV mix and US Adj. Filosa’s turnaround looks costlier—model cancellations, supplier reimbursements, and weaker returns
#Stellantis #CreditDowngrade
February 10, 2026 at 5:56 PM
Is Stellantis Trading with JUNK? 🔻

🏭 Stellantis downgraded by Moody’s to Baa3 and by S&P to BBB-/A-3 as writedowns hit €22B and BEV bets reset
⚠️ Downgrade to HY now a real threat. Pricing between IG & HY
🔍 Doesn't look particularly attractive vs Ford 👇
February 10, 2026 at 5:37 PM
📊 An EQUITY problem IS NOT a CREDIT problem

Past 2 weeks 📉
• S&P Tech -5.6% (AMD -26%, Oracle -23%, MSFT -19%)
• Silver -27%
• Bitcoin -25%
• Rheinmetall -12%

Meanwhile 💹
• EUR IG spreads: +1bp
• EUR HY spreads: +9bp

#CreditMarkets #Investments
February 10, 2026 at 7:30 AM
As long as financial conditions stay loose, the expression "spreads too tight" will keep being wrong.

#CreditMarkets #FinancialConditions #Spreads
February 9, 2026 at 10:16 PM
The signal to watch: MOVE index. 🚦

Rates vol flirting with Sep '21 lows. 💬

This has become THE leading indicator for EUR credit. 💡

When MOVE spikes, spreads follow. Until then? Buyers win. 💪
February 9, 2026 at 10:15 PM
Venezuela invaded. Tariffs threatened. Fed subpoenaed. 🌍

EUR IG spreads? Basically flat 📊

The answer is one number: 88th percentile

That's how EASY financial conditions are right now. 💼

Fed cutting + Trump QE + Bessent talking down yields =what's keeping credit glued tight 🏛️💸

Dip-buying is math
February 9, 2026 at 10:11 PM
Did Alphabet kick off the BIGGEST BOND SALES EVER MADE 🔥️

It is tapping the USD, GBP & CHF bond markets with:

💵 7x USD tranches incl one 40y bond with a premium of 1.2point% above USTs - chart
🇨🇭 5x CHF tranches incl
💷 5x GBP (inaugural) tr incl one rare 100y bond ❗️
February 9, 2026 at 1:47 PM
Credit Supply on Fire! 📈
🔥 Banks Leading a Busy Monday in Primary Markets.

🎤 Top names grabbing the mic: Infineon, Santander UK, BNP, ACAFP, RBI, Swedbank, Fluvio/ADRIT, Balder, Mizuho, RBI & more. Green deals, and covered bonds lighting up the screens.

#Credit #Europe #PrimaryMarkets
February 9, 2026 at 12:25 PM
/1 🇪🇺 ECB is "in a good place" WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR MARKETS?

🔁 Lagarde repeated the mantra: data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting

🏦 For credit "good place" = steep front-end yield curves

📈 Gap between French 7-10yr IG Corp bond yields and French household deposit rates is 1.6% – 90th percentile!
February 8, 2026 at 6:44 PM