Zane Selvans
@zaneselvans.org
Data Liberation Engineer @catalyst.coop. Climate, energy, bikes, cities, co-ops, and the strangeness of Our Modern Age. A former space explorer, now lost in the misty highlands of Mexico.
https://amateurearthling.org
🇺🇸/🇲🇽 he/él
https://amateurearthling.org
🇺🇸/🇲🇽 he/él
November 14, 2025 at 6:47 AM
How did it take me half a century to discover eating popcorn with chopsticks. 🍿🥢
November 14, 2025 at 4:27 AM
How did it take me half a century to discover eating popcorn with chopsticks. 🍿🥢
Looking forward to getting my hands on a copy of this new entry in the Climate True Crime genre.
"Climate Obstruction: A Global Assessment"
The @drilledmedia.bsky.social series interviewing authors from each chapter is a great preview.
www.goodreads.com/book/show/23...
#Books #ClimateChange
"Climate Obstruction: A Global Assessment"
The @drilledmedia.bsky.social series interviewing authors from each chapter is a great preview.
www.goodreads.com/book/show/23...
#Books #ClimateChange
October 15, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Looking forward to getting my hands on a copy of this new entry in the Climate True Crime genre.
"Climate Obstruction: A Global Assessment"
The @drilledmedia.bsky.social series interviewing authors from each chapter is a great preview.
www.goodreads.com/book/show/23...
#Books #ClimateChange
"Climate Obstruction: A Global Assessment"
The @drilledmedia.bsky.social series interviewing authors from each chapter is a great preview.
www.goodreads.com/book/show/23...
#Books #ClimateChange
Walking across town (in Chiapas, Mexico) while listening to this episode, I happened to pass by the local BYD dealership.
"Tired of spending your money on gasoline? Better test drive a BYD."
There are a couple of interesting dynamics I haven't heard come up in this conversation yet. #EnergySky 🧵
"Tired of spending your money on gasoline? Better test drive a BYD."
There are a couple of interesting dynamics I haven't heard come up in this conversation yet. #EnergySky 🧵
September 27, 2025 at 5:08 PM
Walking across town (in Chiapas, Mexico) while listening to this episode, I happened to pass by the local BYD dealership.
"Tired of spending your money on gasoline? Better test drive a BYD."
There are a couple of interesting dynamics I haven't heard come up in this conversation yet. #EnergySky 🧵
"Tired of spending your money on gasoline? Better test drive a BYD."
There are a couple of interesting dynamics I haven't heard come up in this conversation yet. #EnergySky 🧵
There's another slide in this deck talking about the likely change in the demand distribution of end products as road transport electrifies, and the challenges that will pose to refineries that physically can't adjust. Which also seems chaos inducing.
September 23, 2025 at 2:15 PM
There's another slide in this deck talking about the likely change in the demand distribution of end products as road transport electrifies, and the challenges that will pose to refineries that physically can't adjust. Which also seems chaos inducing.
I think there's something interesting in the combination of these two charts. The US is just barely a net exporter of fossil fuels, and also a relatively high cost oil producer. What happens to the politics of oil in the US if global demand & prices drop, but domestic demand doesn't? #EnergySky
September 23, 2025 at 2:58 AM
I think there's something interesting in the combination of these two charts. The US is just barely a net exporter of fossil fuels, and also a relatively high cost oil producer. What happens to the politics of oil in the US if global demand & prices drop, but domestic demand doesn't? #EnergySky
I would have thought the AI kool-aid was limited to Southern Company's demand forecasts. #EnergySky
September 21, 2025 at 10:59 PM
I would have thought the AI kool-aid was limited to Southern Company's demand forecasts. #EnergySky
Oh, it's not just me.
September 21, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Oh, it's not just me.
I didn't expect to see Mexico headed toward electrostate territory. I wonder if they'll (we'll?) open up to more FDI from China.
September 17, 2025 at 4:46 AM
I didn't expect to see Mexico headed toward electrostate territory. I wonder if they'll (we'll?) open up to more FDI from China.
If India (and Africa) peak their per-capita oil consumption at less than 1/10th of the US peak, while they have less than 1/10th of US per-capita income, that feels like it might be a qualitatively different development path from the OECD. Especially alongside ubiquitous distributed PV + batteries.
September 17, 2025 at 4:27 AM
If India (and Africa) peak their per-capita oil consumption at less than 1/10th of the US peak, while they have less than 1/10th of US per-capita income, that feels like it might be a qualitatively different development path from the OECD. Especially alongside ubiquitous distributed PV + batteries.
And it seems like the US really is teetering on the cusp. At the high end of the petroleum dispatch curve. If demand really does peak and start declining as Chinese EVs and electric 2-3 wheelers erode global demand, then what happens to the US enthusiasm for being a petrostate?
September 17, 2025 at 4:22 AM
And it seems like the US really is teetering on the cusp. At the high end of the petroleum dispatch curve. If demand really does peak and start declining as Chinese EVs and electric 2-3 wheelers erode global demand, then what happens to the US enthusiasm for being a petrostate?
What will refiners do to accommodate a shift in the distribution of demand among their various products?
September 17, 2025 at 4:10 AM
What will refiners do to accommodate a shift in the distribution of demand among their various products?
Like just the things we already know how to do will cause fossil pandemonium... if we actually do them. And then what kind of relationship does China end up having with the petrostates? Why don't they already feel like it's an existential conflict? Maybe they're distracted by the US imploding.
September 17, 2025 at 4:00 AM
Like just the things we already know how to do will cause fossil pandemonium... if we actually do them. And then what kind of relationship does China end up having with the petrostates? Why don't they already feel like it's an existential conflict? Maybe they're distracted by the US imploding.
This map makes me think they're only considering current energy consumption. It's easy to have 1000x current consumption in Africa & Afghanistan today. What would this look like if we assume every person on Earth has access to 1000W or 2000W of end-use energy services?
September 17, 2025 at 3:52 AM
This map makes me think they're only considering current energy consumption. It's easy to have 1000x current consumption in Africa & Afghanistan today. What would this look like if we assume every person on Earth has access to 1000W or 2000W of end-use energy services?
Ah, they have a chart for that too! Sadly the US is teetering.
September 17, 2025 at 3:47 AM
Ah, they have a chart for that too! Sadly the US is teetering.
They don't really say why they carved otu "Petroregions" as their own special category, but I like it. They have structural impediments to transitioning that don't have much to do with whether it's a good idea. Most people don't live in those places. I worry that the US wants to be a petrostate now.
September 17, 2025 at 3:32 AM
They don't really say why they carved otu "Petroregions" as their own special category, but I like it. They have structural impediments to transitioning that don't have much to do with whether it's a good idea. Most people don't live in those places. I worry that the US wants to be a petrostate now.
This one doesn't seem right. Adjusted for inflation, gasoline prices haven't really had a long-term trend (in the US). Like, ever. Commodity prices are volatile, subject to cartels, and you might not have the ones you need locally, which seems like plenty of motivation go for manufactured energy!
September 17, 2025 at 3:13 AM
This one doesn't seem right. Adjusted for inflation, gasoline prices haven't really had a long-term trend (in the US). Like, ever. Commodity prices are volatile, subject to cartels, and you might not have the ones you need locally, which seems like plenty of motivation go for manufactured energy!
The crazy reduction in the material throughput of a post-fossil energy system is hard to convey. It's both less materials, and the materials play a fundamentally different role in the system. They don't flow through it once. They reside, maybe almost forever.
September 17, 2025 at 2:51 AM
The crazy reduction in the material throughput of a post-fossil energy system is hard to convey. It's both less materials, and the materials play a fundamentally different role in the system. They don't flow through it once. They reside, maybe almost forever.
I wonder how much of this discrepancy in electrification of end uses is just due to much lower levels of car ownership / use.
September 17, 2025 at 2:47 AM
I wonder how much of this discrepancy in electrification of end uses is just due to much lower levels of car ownership / use.
This is a strange plot. Cooling, appliances, lighting, and electronics have for the most part only ever been electric, so those panels are mostly charting the rapid post-WWII increase in energy use as new kinds of electrical energy consumption arose, not electrification of other energy use.
September 17, 2025 at 2:22 AM
This is a strange plot. Cooling, appliances, lighting, and electronics have for the most part only ever been electric, so those panels are mostly charting the rapid post-WWII increase in energy use as new kinds of electrical energy consumption arose, not electrification of other energy use.
Working my way through this @ember-energy.org slide deck.
ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
With 1.6 TW/yr of PV manufacturing capacity will it get harder to build new facilities that churn out cheaper, higher efficiency modules? Like trying to build renewables with no load growth? #EnergySky
ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
With 1.6 TW/yr of PV manufacturing capacity will it get harder to build new facilities that churn out cheaper, higher efficiency modules? Like trying to build renewables with no load growth? #EnergySky
September 17, 2025 at 2:05 AM
Working my way through this @ember-energy.org slide deck.
ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
With 1.6 TW/yr of PV manufacturing capacity will it get harder to build new facilities that churn out cheaper, higher efficiency modules? Like trying to build renewables with no load growth? #EnergySky
ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
With 1.6 TW/yr of PV manufacturing capacity will it get harder to build new facilities that churn out cheaper, higher efficiency modules? Like trying to build renewables with no load growth? #EnergySky