Xander Snyder
@xandersnyder.bsky.social
Senior Commercial Real Estate Economist at First American Financial
More details in the full outlook here: blog.firstam.com/economics/si...
#HousingMarket #RealEstateEconomics #Affordability #Outlook #2026Forecast
#HousingMarket #RealEstateEconomics #Affordability #Outlook #2026Forecast
Six for 2026: Predicting Next Year’s Housing Market
As 2026 unfolds, the housing market steadies with six defining forces: affordability, demand shifts, regional gaps, stress zones, supply, and new homes.
blog.firstam.com
November 13, 2025 at 6:36 PM
More details in the full outlook here: blog.firstam.com/economics/si...
#HousingMarket #RealEstateEconomics #Affordability #Outlook #2026Forecast
#HousingMarket #RealEstateEconomics #Affordability #Outlook #2026Forecast
New Homes: Builders hold an advantage - they can sell standing inventory with incentives.
November 13, 2025 at 6:36 PM
New Homes: Builders hold an advantage - they can sell standing inventory with incentives.
Supply: Inventory climbs slowly as rate lock loosens, but remains below historic norms.
November 13, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Supply: Inventory climbs slowly as rate lock loosens, but remains below historic norms.
Distress: Remains localized; strong homeowner equity (record high) prevents systemic risk.
November 13, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Distress: Remains localized; strong homeowner equity (record high) prevents systemic risk.
Regions: Midwest/Northeast stay tight; South/West adjust as supply increases.
November 13, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Regions: Midwest/Northeast stay tight; South/West adjust as supply increases.
Demand: Life-cycle events (marriage, kids, moves) sustain transactions; millennials and Gen Z add long-term ownership demand.
November 13, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Demand: Life-cycle events (marriage, kids, moves) sustain transactions; millennials and Gen Z add long-term ownership demand.
Affordability: Mortgage rates likely stay in the low 6s; modest price growth and wage gains drive incremental improvement.
November 13, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Affordability: Mortgage rates likely stay in the low 6s; modest price growth and wage gains drive incremental improvement.
...slower price growth and rising incomes rather than sharply lower rates. Life events, demographics, and a gradual easing of the lock-in effect nudge activity higher.
Put more simply, the 2026 housing market will look steadier but still be far from 'normal'.
Put more simply, the 2026 housing market will look steadier but still be far from 'normal'.
November 13, 2025 at 6:36 PM
...slower price growth and rising incomes rather than sharply lower rates. Life events, demographics, and a gradual easing of the lock-in effect nudge activity higher.
Put more simply, the 2026 housing market will look steadier but still be far from 'normal'.
Put more simply, the 2026 housing market will look steadier but still be far from 'normal'.
Overall, though, CRE credit availability is clearly improving.
#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Lending #CMBS #Multifamily #Industrial #Office #Economy
#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Lending #CMBS #Multifamily #Industrial #Office #Economy
November 11, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Overall, though, CRE credit availability is clearly improving.
#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Lending #CMBS #Multifamily #Industrial #Office #Economy
#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Lending #CMBS #Multifamily #Industrial #Office #Economy
Lenders are increasingly stepping back into the market. While life companies eased slightly, momentum is positive across all other major lender types. The recovery remains uneven - industrial and investor lending are leading, office and health care are lagging.
November 11, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Lenders are increasingly stepping back into the market. While life companies eased slightly, momentum is positive across all other major lender types. The recovery remains uneven - industrial and investor lending are leading, office and health care are lagging.
...total CRE originations stand roughly 12% higher than in 3Q19, underscoring a steady but uneven recovery across lender types.
November 11, 2025 at 5:27 PM
...total CRE originations stand roughly 12% higher than in 3Q19, underscoring a steady but uneven recovery across lender types.
Measured against pre‑pandemic benchmarks, investor lenders have expanded the most - about 80% above 2019 levels - while agencies are up roughly 18%. CMBS lending is roughly flat relative to 2019, and both banks and life insurers remain slightly below their pre‑COVID volumes. In aggregate...
November 11, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Measured against pre‑pandemic benchmarks, investor lenders have expanded the most - about 80% above 2019 levels - while agencies are up roughly 18%. CMBS lending is roughly flat relative to 2019, and both banks and life insurers remain slightly below their pre‑COVID volumes. In aggregate...
...compared with the strong rebound seen in 2024 but remains well above its late‑2022 trough, indicating continued improvement in market liquidity.
November 11, 2025 at 5:27 PM
...compared with the strong rebound seen in 2024 but remains well above its late‑2022 trough, indicating continued improvement in market liquidity.
By Lender Type
Most lender types increased origination volumes in the third quarter, with banks and agencies contributing to the overall rise. Life insurance companies were the only cohort to edge lower, declining about 3.5%. CMBS issuance slowed...
Most lender types increased origination volumes in the third quarter, with banks and agencies contributing to the overall rise. Life insurance companies were the only cohort to edge lower, declining about 3.5%. CMBS issuance slowed...
November 11, 2025 at 5:27 PM
By Lender Type
Most lender types increased origination volumes in the third quarter, with banks and agencies contributing to the overall rise. Life insurance companies were the only cohort to edge lower, declining about 3.5%. CMBS issuance slowed...
Most lender types increased origination volumes in the third quarter, with banks and agencies contributing to the overall rise. Life insurance companies were the only cohort to edge lower, declining about 3.5%. CMBS issuance slowed...
Overall, lending growth is broad‑based but uneven, with office and health care still lagging the broader recovery.
November 11, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Overall, lending growth is broad‑based but uneven, with office and health care still lagging the broader recovery.
Compared with pre‑pandemic levels, industrial originations are about twice those of 2019, reflecting continued strength in logistics and manufacturing. Multifamily, retail, and hotel volumes now sit slightly above their 2019 levels, with office lending roughly 35% below and health care 5% lower.
November 11, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Compared with pre‑pandemic levels, industrial originations are about twice those of 2019, reflecting continued strength in logistics and manufacturing. Multifamily, retail, and hotel volumes now sit slightly above their 2019 levels, with office lending roughly 35% below and health care 5% lower.
... by about 181% year over year, followed by retail at roughly 100%, hotel at 66%, and multifamily at 27%. Industrial lending also rose, though only modestly at 5%, while health care was the lone category to contract, down 43%.
November 11, 2025 at 5:27 PM
... by about 181% year over year, followed by retail at roughly 100%, hotel at 66%, and multifamily at 27%. Industrial lending also rose, though only modestly at 5%, while health care was the lone category to contract, down 43%.
-- How strong equity and low unemployment are keeping foreclosures subdued
-- What improving affordability and income growth mean for a slow but steady recovery
Listen to the full episode on Spotify or your favorite podcast platform, or follow the link below: blog.firstam.com/reconomy-pod...
-- What improving affordability and income growth mean for a slow but steady recovery
Listen to the full episode on Spotify or your favorite podcast platform, or follow the link below: blog.firstam.com/reconomy-pod...
The REconomy Podcast™: Bubble Busters – Debunking the Scariest Housing Headlines
In this episode of the REconomy Podcast™, Mark and Odeta debunk scary housing headlines, revealing a rebalancing market, not a crash.
blog.firstam.com
November 7, 2025 at 5:20 PM
-- How strong equity and low unemployment are keeping foreclosures subdued
-- What improving affordability and income growth mean for a slow but steady recovery
Listen to the full episode on Spotify or your favorite podcast platform, or follow the link below: blog.firstam.com/reconomy-pod...
-- What improving affordability and income growth mean for a slow but steady recovery
Listen to the full episode on Spotify or your favorite podcast platform, or follow the link below: blog.firstam.com/reconomy-pod...
What are merely creaks in the floorboards and where are there real, structural cracks? In this episode, they cover:
-- Is a price crash looming?
-- Are foreclosures coming back?
-- Are home sales “dead forever”?
-- Why house-price slowdowns are part of a normal market adjustment
-- Is a price crash looming?
-- Are foreclosures coming back?
-- Are home sales “dead forever”?
-- Why house-price slowdowns are part of a normal market adjustment
November 7, 2025 at 5:20 PM
What are merely creaks in the floorboards and where are there real, structural cracks? In this episode, they cover:
-- Is a price crash looming?
-- Are foreclosures coming back?
-- Are home sales “dead forever”?
-- Why house-price slowdowns are part of a normal market adjustment
-- Is a price crash looming?
-- Are foreclosures coming back?
-- Are home sales “dead forever”?
-- Why house-price slowdowns are part of a normal market adjustment
Listen to wherever you find podcasts, or watch the video here: www.vvco.com/the-midwest-...
#CRE #Industrial #Midwest
#CRE #Industrial #Midwest
The Midwest Rebalance: Industrial Winners and Losers With Xander Snyder - RFP 81
When the industrial market peaked in 2022, nearly 800 million square feet of space was under construction across the U.S.—the largest development pipeline in history. Two years later, that wave has fi...
www.vvco.com
November 6, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Listen to wherever you find podcasts, or watch the video here: www.vvco.com/the-midwest-...
#CRE #Industrial #Midwest
#CRE #Industrial #Midwest
-- Big and small bay buildings face different fundamentals. What's driving big bay vacancy high while keeping small bay low?
-- Industrial outdoor storage, cold storage, and other niche asset classes that are coming into their own.
-- Industrial outdoor storage, cold storage, and other niche asset classes that are coming into their own.
November 6, 2025 at 4:59 PM
-- Big and small bay buildings face different fundamentals. What's driving big bay vacancy high while keeping small bay low?
-- Industrial outdoor storage, cold storage, and other niche asset classes that are coming into their own.
-- Industrial outdoor storage, cold storage, and other niche asset classes that are coming into their own.