To add to the bad news, as the storm drifts west, easterly to SErly flow will blast Jamaica with bands of heavy rainfall well in advance of landfall. Idk what Jamaica's wettest 3 or 4-day observed rainfall is in its recorded history, but have to think #Melissa has a good chance to break it.

06Z HAFS-B pressure forecast was closer to what HHs were observing earlier today. It shows another period of RI starting sometime tonight and into Monday morning. Given #Melissa has another 48 hrs over the Caribbean, it unfortunately still has time to strengthen prior to landfall.

My latest MPD for #Chantal mentions that rainfall rates should steadily decrease tonight, but the storm's generally slow progression & still highly efficient rainfall rates will keep the significant flash flood threat going through this evening. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/met...

Additional flash flooding in south-central TX possible this afternoon: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/met...