Jonathan Erdman
@wxjerdman.bsky.social
Senior meteorologist @weatherchannel. M.S. Colorado State Univ.; B.S. UW-Madison; Insightful. Interesting. Impactful. Weather. Opinions are mine only, not of my employer.
Snow winner, so far....33" in Gile, WI, often the snowiest spot in the Badger State.
November 27, 2025 at 12:24 PM
Snow winner, so far....33" in Gile, WI, often the snowiest spot in the Badger State.
Mt. Washington even outkicked its usual extreme weather Tuesday.
Impressive lenticular photos at sunrise from the summit, then a surreal view from the valley.
Valley pic credit: Colby Morris/MWO
Impressive lenticular photos at sunrise from the summit, then a surreal view from the valley.
Valley pic credit: Colby Morris/MWO
November 26, 2025 at 12:48 PM
Mt. Washington even outkicked its usual extreme weather Tuesday.
Impressive lenticular photos at sunrise from the summit, then a surreal view from the valley.
Valley pic credit: Colby Morris/MWO
Impressive lenticular photos at sunrise from the summit, then a surreal view from the valley.
Valley pic credit: Colby Morris/MWO
Welcome to December in the upper Midwest this Monday morning.
Not record-threatening cold for this time of year, but yeesh...🥶
Not record-threatening cold for this time of year, but yeesh...🥶
November 26, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Welcome to December in the upper Midwest this Monday morning.
Not record-threatening cold for this time of year, but yeesh...🥶
Not record-threatening cold for this time of year, but yeesh...🥶
Asking for a friend...
Can the NFL move the Bills-Steelers game to Orchard Park...and to Thanksgiving?
Can the NFL move the Bills-Steelers game to Orchard Park...and to Thanksgiving?
November 25, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Asking for a friend...
Can the NFL move the Bills-Steelers game to Orchard Park...and to Thanksgiving?
Can the NFL move the Bills-Steelers game to Orchard Park...and to Thanksgiving?
With a winter storm warning in effect, the Twin Cities will see its first accumulating snow of the season (MSP Airport) late tonight into early Wednesday.
Should be ok getting out of town today as long as you're not driving to ND or N. MN.
Tomorrow AM: slick driving, flight delays possible.
Should be ok getting out of town today as long as you're not driving to ND or N. MN.
Tomorrow AM: slick driving, flight delays possible.
November 25, 2025 at 10:36 AM
With a winter storm warning in effect, the Twin Cities will see its first accumulating snow of the season (MSP Airport) late tonight into early Wednesday.
Should be ok getting out of town today as long as you're not driving to ND or N. MN.
Tomorrow AM: slick driving, flight delays possible.
Should be ok getting out of town today as long as you're not driving to ND or N. MN.
Tomorrow AM: slick driving, flight delays possible.
Thank goodness for ensemble forecasting.
Here are the 2 "operational" ECMWF, GFS 0z Monday model run 7-day forecasts for this Sunday. Could they possibly be more different? 😆
Here are the 2 "operational" ECMWF, GFS 0z Monday model run 7-day forecasts for this Sunday. Could they possibly be more different? 😆
November 24, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Thank goodness for ensemble forecasting.
Here are the 2 "operational" ECMWF, GFS 0z Monday model run 7-day forecasts for this Sunday. Could they possibly be more different? 😆
Here are the 2 "operational" ECMWF, GFS 0z Monday model run 7-day forecasts for this Sunday. Could they possibly be more different? 😆
Tropical cyclone Fina is nearing its final landfall in the far north of W. Australia as Cat. 3 equiv.
Per NOAA's database, looks to be strongest to hit that part of NE WA in over 20 years, since Ingrid in March 2005.
Per NOAA's database, looks to be strongest to hit that part of NE WA in over 20 years, since Ingrid in March 2005.
November 24, 2025 at 10:15 AM
Tropical cyclone Fina is nearing its final landfall in the far north of W. Australia as Cat. 3 equiv.
Per NOAA's database, looks to be strongest to hit that part of NE WA in over 20 years, since Ingrid in March 2005.
Per NOAA's database, looks to be strongest to hit that part of NE WA in over 20 years, since Ingrid in March 2005.
Second cold push after Thanksgiving could set the table for interesting winter weather the weekend of Nov. 29-30 into the first few days of Dec.
In theory, at least. We'll see if that actually holds in future model runs.
In theory, at least. We'll see if that actually holds in future model runs.
November 21, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Second cold push after Thanksgiving could set the table for interesting winter weather the weekend of Nov. 29-30 into the first few days of Dec.
In theory, at least. We'll see if that actually holds in future model runs.
In theory, at least. We'll see if that actually holds in future model runs.
4-day rain total at Santa Barbara, CA their heaviest in over 20 years (since Jan. 2005), and pushes them to a record Nov. tally dating to 1941.
Another inch or so today.
Some mountain locations in SBA County picked up over 10 inches of rain the past 72 hours.
Another inch or so today.
Some mountain locations in SBA County picked up over 10 inches of rain the past 72 hours.
November 17, 2025 at 11:08 AM
4-day rain total at Santa Barbara, CA their heaviest in over 20 years (since Jan. 2005), and pushes them to a record Nov. tally dating to 1941.
Another inch or so today.
Some mountain locations in SBA County picked up over 10 inches of rain the past 72 hours.
Another inch or so today.
Some mountain locations in SBA County picked up over 10 inches of rain the past 72 hours.
Just a beautiful satellite "apostrophe" near the West Coast this morning.
🛰️: CIRA_CSU
🛰️: CIRA_CSU
November 13, 2025 at 12:15 PM
Just a beautiful satellite "apostrophe" near the West Coast this morning.
🛰️: CIRA_CSU
🛰️: CIRA_CSU
While forecast models haven't resolved the key details (typical this far out), the pattern looks "more active" during the last half of next week, both in the West and Central US.
Stay tuned. ⚡️🌬️
Stay tuned. ⚡️🌬️
November 13, 2025 at 10:32 AM
While forecast models haven't resolved the key details (typical this far out), the pattern looks "more active" during the last half of next week, both in the West and Central US.
Stay tuned. ⚡️🌬️
Stay tuned. ⚡️🌬️
57˚ may not sound all that cold to many of you.
But that was this morning's low in Key West, Florida, tying their "record coldest so early in fall" with four other dates in 1966, 1955, 1913.
But that was this morning's low in Key West, Florida, tying their "record coldest so early in fall" with four other dates in 1966, 1955, 1913.
November 11, 2025 at 3:28 PM
57˚ may not sound all that cold to many of you.
But that was this morning's low in Key West, Florida, tying their "record coldest so early in fall" with four other dates in 1966, 1955, 1913.
But that was this morning's low in Key West, Florida, tying their "record coldest so early in fall" with four other dates in 1966, 1955, 1913.
2 most intriguing weather games this weekend:
- #9 Oregon @ #20 Iowa: Weather only a "duck" could love.
- NY Giants @ Chicago Bears: A passing, kicking challenge with cold wind howling from end zone to end zone. Flurry or snow shower, too?
- #9 Oregon @ #20 Iowa: Weather only a "duck" could love.
- NY Giants @ Chicago Bears: A passing, kicking challenge with cold wind howling from end zone to end zone. Flurry or snow shower, too?
November 7, 2025 at 11:46 AM
2 most intriguing weather games this weekend:
- #9 Oregon @ #20 Iowa: Weather only a "duck" could love.
- NY Giants @ Chicago Bears: A passing, kicking challenge with cold wind howling from end zone to end zone. Flurry or snow shower, too?
- #9 Oregon @ #20 Iowa: Weather only a "duck" could love.
- NY Giants @ Chicago Bears: A passing, kicking challenge with cold wind howling from end zone to end zone. Flurry or snow shower, too?
This may be the coldest early November outbreak in parts of Florida and the Southeast since 1993.
About 2 dozen daily record lows in jeopardy on Veterans Day.
More deets: weather.com/forecast/reg...
About 2 dozen daily record lows in jeopardy on Veterans Day.
More deets: weather.com/forecast/reg...
November 7, 2025 at 10:42 AM
This may be the coldest early November outbreak in parts of Florida and the Southeast since 1993.
About 2 dozen daily record lows in jeopardy on Veterans Day.
More deets: weather.com/forecast/reg...
About 2 dozen daily record lows in jeopardy on Veterans Day.
More deets: weather.com/forecast/reg...
There's a good chance you've seen this infamous video if you've taken any science, physics, or engineering class.
The Tacoma Narrows Bridge collapse happened 85 years ago today.
weather.com/science/weat...
The Tacoma Narrows Bridge collapse happened 85 years ago today.
weather.com/science/weat...
November 7, 2025 at 10:34 AM
There's a good chance you've seen this infamous video if you've taken any science, physics, or engineering class.
The Tacoma Narrows Bridge collapse happened 85 years ago today.
weather.com/science/weat...
The Tacoma Narrows Bridge collapse happened 85 years ago today.
weather.com/science/weat...
Last night: Nov. record setting Atlantic Canada "bomb cyclone", very nearly an all-time record low pressure for Newfoundland.
Now: Pacific storm moving ashore right now with high winds.
Late today-early Thu: Locally damaging winds possible in the Northeast.
#November 🌬️🍃
Now: Pacific storm moving ashore right now with high winds.
Late today-early Thu: Locally damaging winds possible in the Northeast.
#November 🌬️🍃
November 5, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Last night: Nov. record setting Atlantic Canada "bomb cyclone", very nearly an all-time record low pressure for Newfoundland.
Now: Pacific storm moving ashore right now with high winds.
Late today-early Thu: Locally damaging winds possible in the Northeast.
#November 🌬️🍃
Now: Pacific storm moving ashore right now with high winds.
Late today-early Thu: Locally damaging winds possible in the Northeast.
#November 🌬️🍃
Starting to see a few daily record lows and cold highs entering into play in the Southeast early next week.
How about daytime highs struggling to reach the low 50s along the coast of the Carolinas Tuesday?
Fortunately, this cold won't last long.
How about daytime highs struggling to reach the low 50s along the coast of the Carolinas Tuesday?
Fortunately, this cold won't last long.
November 5, 2025 at 11:19 AM
Starting to see a few daily record lows and cold highs entering into play in the Southeast early next week.
How about daytime highs struggling to reach the low 50s along the coast of the Carolinas Tuesday?
Fortunately, this cold won't last long.
How about daytime highs struggling to reach the low 50s along the coast of the Carolinas Tuesday?
Fortunately, this cold won't last long.
Here are all the Category 5 segments of the 45 known Cat 5 Atlantic Basin hurricanes since 1924, with Melissa's 36-hour segment highlighted.
October 29, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Here are all the Category 5 segments of the 45 known Cat 5 Atlantic Basin hurricanes since 1924, with Melissa's 36-hour segment highlighted.
While Melissa carves through eastern Cuba, bands of heavy rain are *still* soaking Haiti.
I believe a post from @drmetwatch.bsky.social Tuesday would imply that today is day 8 of at least locally heavy rain in Hispaniola.
E flank outer bands of TCs are frequently signif. flash flood generators.
I believe a post from @drmetwatch.bsky.social Tuesday would imply that today is day 8 of at least locally heavy rain in Hispaniola.
E flank outer bands of TCs are frequently signif. flash flood generators.
October 29, 2025 at 9:08 AM
While Melissa carves through eastern Cuba, bands of heavy rain are *still* soaking Haiti.
I believe a post from @drmetwatch.bsky.social Tuesday would imply that today is day 8 of at least locally heavy rain in Hispaniola.
E flank outer bands of TCs are frequently signif. flash flood generators.
I believe a post from @drmetwatch.bsky.social Tuesday would imply that today is day 8 of at least locally heavy rain in Hispaniola.
E flank outer bands of TCs are frequently signif. flash flood generators.
A graphic that will live in infamy. 😥
Record tying intense Atlantic Basin hurricane landfall.
Record tying intense Atlantic Basin hurricane landfall.
October 28, 2025 at 5:15 PM
A graphic that will live in infamy. 😥
Record tying intense Atlantic Basin hurricane landfall.
Record tying intense Atlantic Basin hurricane landfall.
Concerned for the area around Black River, Jamaica for surge flooding, apart from catastrophic wind, rainfall flood impacts.
SLOSH, wind wave model combination suggests over 6 feet of above ground inundation or higher possible in areas shaded in orange and red.
SLOSH, wind wave model combination suggests over 6 feet of above ground inundation or higher possible in areas shaded in orange and red.
October 28, 2025 at 3:33 PM
Concerned for the area around Black River, Jamaica for surge flooding, apart from catastrophic wind, rainfall flood impacts.
SLOSH, wind wave model combination suggests over 6 feet of above ground inundation or higher possible in areas shaded in orange and red.
SLOSH, wind wave model combination suggests over 6 feet of above ground inundation or higher possible in areas shaded in orange and red.
A bit "apples and oranges" as tornado winds are almost always estimated from damage and hurricane winds can last much longer...
...but these peak sustained winds in Melissa are in the EF4 range. Some gusts could be EF5 in the hills/mountains, etc.
...but these peak sustained winds in Melissa are in the EF4 range. Some gusts could be EF5 in the hills/mountains, etc.
October 28, 2025 at 2:28 PM
A bit "apples and oranges" as tornado winds are almost always estimated from damage and hurricane winds can last much longer...
...but these peak sustained winds in Melissa are in the EF4 range. Some gusts could be EF5 in the hills/mountains, etc.
...but these peak sustained winds in Melissa are in the EF4 range. Some gusts could be EF5 in the hills/mountains, etc.
While most attention is rightfully on Jamaica with Cat. 5 Melissa...note also the trailing bands of heavy rain pumping into southwestern Haiti's Tiburon Peninsula.
Likely rainfall rates of several inches per hour into an extremely flash flood, mudslide prone area.
Likely rainfall rates of several inches per hour into an extremely flash flood, mudslide prone area.
October 28, 2025 at 11:42 AM
While most attention is rightfully on Jamaica with Cat. 5 Melissa...note also the trailing bands of heavy rain pumping into southwestern Haiti's Tiburon Peninsula.
Likely rainfall rates of several inches per hour into an extremely flash flood, mudslide prone area.
Likely rainfall rates of several inches per hour into an extremely flash flood, mudslide prone area.
Minor correction....I forgot Irma made *four* separate Cat. 5 landfalls, so added that landfall at St. Martin.
October 28, 2025 at 10:36 AM
Minor correction....I forgot Irma made *four* separate Cat. 5 landfalls, so added that landfall at St. Martin.
Melissa is forecast to be the Atlantic Basin's first Category 5 landfall today since Dorian on Sept. 1, 2019.
Quite an elite list of Cat. 5 Atlantic landfalls. Melissa will be among them by both pressure and winds.
Quite an elite list of Cat. 5 Atlantic landfalls. Melissa will be among them by both pressure and winds.
October 28, 2025 at 9:26 AM
Melissa is forecast to be the Atlantic Basin's first Category 5 landfall today since Dorian on Sept. 1, 2019.
Quite an elite list of Cat. 5 Atlantic landfalls. Melissa will be among them by both pressure and winds.
Quite an elite list of Cat. 5 Atlantic landfalls. Melissa will be among them by both pressure and winds.