Josh Putnam
@www.fhqplus.com
Political scientist specializing in delegate selection rules, presidential campaigns and elections. Founder of FHQ Strategies, LLC.
blog: https://www.frontloadinghq.com
newsletter: https://www.fhqplus.com/
business: https://www.fhqstrategies.com/
blog: https://www.frontloadinghq.com
newsletter: https://www.fhqplus.com/
business: https://www.fhqstrategies.com/
Here's the list minus the at-large members who were just elected. I haven't looked for a list with the additional members yet. Don't know if they are public.
But even that process changed this time around:
www.fhqplus.com/p/the-2028-d...
But even that process changed this time around:
www.fhqplus.com/p/the-2028-d...
August 5, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Here's the list minus the at-large members who were just elected. I haven't looked for a list with the additional members yet. Don't know if they are public.
But even that process changed this time around:
www.fhqplus.com/p/the-2028-d...
But even that process changed this time around:
www.fhqplus.com/p/the-2028-d...
May as well have some fun with this non-Harris version of the 2028 Democratic presidential trial heat in this way-too-early survey from Echelon.
Fun fact: None of the candidates would qualify for delegates because no one reaches the 15% threshold. But...
www.newsweek.com/pete-buttigi...
Fun fact: None of the candidates would qualify for delegates because no one reaches the 15% threshold. But...
www.newsweek.com/pete-buttigi...
![Survey results from an Echelon Insights poll asking about the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination race (not including former Vice President Kamala Harris). [Fielded from July 10-14, 2025]
[Q2028DemPrimary - COMBINED NON-HARRIS]
(n=505)
Gavin Newsom 12%
Pete Buttigieg 12%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9%
Cory Booker 8%
Tim Walz 7%
Josh Shapiro 5%
Mark Cuban 4%
Gretchen Whitmer 3%
J.B. Pritzker 3%
John Fetterman 2%
Wes Moore 2%
Andy Beshear 2%
Jasmine Crockett 2%
Chris Murphy 2%
Jon Stewart 2%
Raphael Warnock 1%
Stephen A. Smith 1%
Rahm Emanuel 1%
Jared Polis *%
Ruben Gallego *%
Someone else (Please specify) 3%
Unsure](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:c7trvxgv7veldmmrrcwyachq/bafkreiffbezcl6xafbnxxes4xeagi33t4stbtf6sjhfu62jmbxyj47frnu@jpeg)
July 15, 2025 at 8:18 PM
May as well have some fun with this non-Harris version of the 2028 Democratic presidential trial heat in this way-too-early survey from Echelon.
Fun fact: None of the candidates would qualify for delegates because no one reaches the 15% threshold. But...
www.newsweek.com/pete-buttigi...
Fun fact: None of the candidates would qualify for delegates because no one reaches the 15% threshold. But...
www.newsweek.com/pete-buttigi...
Sure, one has to scroll down to the fifth paragraph, but I appreciated Politico adding this quote to their story about Buttigieg's stop in Iowa. A trip to the Hawkeye state is not without consequence, but Iowa ain't the first state anymore.
www.politico.com/news/2025/05...
www.politico.com/news/2025/05...
May 14, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Sure, one has to scroll down to the fifth paragraph, but I appreciated Politico adding this quote to their story about Buttigieg's stop in Iowa. A trip to the Hawkeye state is not without consequence, but Iowa ain't the first state anymore.
www.politico.com/news/2025/05...
www.politico.com/news/2025/05...
Harris may or may not run in 2028. I don't know that I'd bet on that either way. However, I would be inclined to place a wager on there being a thermostatic response to the Trump administration. I don't know the extent of it, but I'm fairly confident in the direction.
abcnews.go.com/Politics/lon...
abcnews.go.com/Politics/lon...
March 18, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Harris may or may not run in 2028. I don't know that I'd bet on that either way. However, I would be inclined to place a wager on there being a thermostatic response to the Trump administration. I don't know the extent of it, but I'm fairly confident in the direction.
abcnews.go.com/Politics/lon...
abcnews.go.com/Politics/lon...
Good one from @smotus.bsky.social this morning. Nodded along especially hard at this bit.
smotus.substack.com/p/why-democr...
smotus.substack.com/p/why-democr...
February 3, 2025 at 4:14 PM
Good one from @smotus.bsky.social this morning. Nodded along especially hard at this bit.
smotus.substack.com/p/why-democr...
smotus.substack.com/p/why-democr...
It isn't as pronounced, but the shift is still there from 2020 to 2024.
November 25, 2024 at 4:42 PM
It isn't as pronounced, but the shift is still there from 2020 to 2024.
They held Warren's comments until almost the very end of the piece. ...and they were fairly boilerplate for her.
November 19, 2024 at 3:15 PM
They held Warren's comments until almost the very end of the piece. ...and they were fairly boilerplate for her.
Lots of time to discuss all of this, but the only "current plan" there is is that the DNC will reexamine the early states every cycle.
The states listed are the ones from the "2024 plan," not the "current plan." There is no current plan. The DNC has not written one for 2028 yet. 2/
The states listed are the ones from the "2024 plan," not the "current plan." There is no current plan. The DNC has not written one for 2028 yet. 2/
November 16, 2024 at 4:10 PM
Lots of time to discuss all of this, but the only "current plan" there is is that the DNC will reexamine the early states every cycle.
The states listed are the ones from the "2024 plan," not the "current plan." There is no current plan. The DNC has not written one for 2028 yet. 2/
The states listed are the ones from the "2024 plan," not the "current plan." There is no current plan. The DNC has not written one for 2028 yet. 2/
Hesitate to call the order of states in these WSJ polls unusual. The battlegrounds are all close and tightly clustered. But under this alignment, Harris winning AZ/MI/GA gets her to 268. NC would become the tipping point.
Trump would need NC to get to exactly 270.
www.wsj.com/politics/ele...
Trump would need NC to get to exactly 270.
www.wsj.com/politics/ele...
October 11, 2024 at 11:49 AM
Hesitate to call the order of states in these WSJ polls unusual. The battlegrounds are all close and tightly clustered. But under this alignment, Harris winning AZ/MI/GA gets her to 268. NC would become the tipping point.
Trump would need NC to get to exactly 270.
www.wsj.com/politics/ele...
Trump would need NC to get to exactly 270.
www.wsj.com/politics/ele...
I don't know. The polls in four of those five cycles may not have shown particularly close races at the end but they ended up that way. Seems to me that is a cautionary tale about assuming the polls will be right on the nose come November. However...
www.nytimes.com/2024/09/09/u...
www.nytimes.com/2024/09/09/u...
September 9, 2024 at 12:49 PM
I don't know. The polls in four of those five cycles may not have shown particularly close races at the end but they ended up that way. Seems to me that is a cautionary tale about assuming the polls will be right on the nose come November. However...
www.nytimes.com/2024/09/09/u...
www.nytimes.com/2024/09/09/u...
2 days until the ABC presidential debate
12 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
58 days until the presidential election
www.fhqplus.com/p/the-fhq-el...
12 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
58 days until the presidential election
www.fhqplus.com/p/the-fhq-el...
![Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.8%, Trump - 44.6%, Other - 5.0%. Undecided - 3.2% [Harris: +2.2] | Two-way: Harris - 48.7%, Trump - 46.7%, Other - 1.3%, Undecided - 2.8% [Harris: +2.0]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:c7trvxgv7veldmmrrcwyachq/bafkreigjiijie5qraaejzfwy76hry4sbsfahw2u226hqwvltkd32cezmjm@jpeg)
September 8, 2024 at 3:18 PM
2 days until the ABC presidential debate
12 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
58 days until the presidential election
www.fhqplus.com/p/the-fhq-el...
12 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
58 days until the presidential election
www.fhqplus.com/p/the-fhq-el...
5 days until the ABC presidential debate
15 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
61 days until the presidential election
15 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
61 days until the presidential election
September 5, 2024 at 3:18 PM
5 days until the ABC presidential debate
15 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
61 days until the presidential election
15 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
61 days until the presidential election
6 days until the ABC presidential debate
16 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
62 days until the presidential election
16 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
62 days until the presidential election
September 4, 2024 at 12:46 PM
6 days until the ABC presidential debate
16 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
62 days until the presidential election
16 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
62 days until the presidential election
7 days until the ABC presidential debate
17 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
63 days until the presidential election
17 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
63 days until the presidential election
![Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.6%, Trump - 44.4%, Other - 5.3%. Undecided - 3.3% [Harris: +2.2] | Two-way: Harris - 48.7%, Trump - 46.5%, Other - 1.4%, Undecided - 2.8% [Harris: +2.2]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:c7trvxgv7veldmmrrcwyachq/bafkreicfxuexbj3s72ifn5wke2q33oxj3u322als7kmnoggdlvym3rrdz4@jpeg)
September 3, 2024 at 12:35 PM
7 days until the ABC presidential debate
17 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
63 days until the presidential election
17 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
63 days until the presidential election
Indeed. Harris has gained a little each day since I started logging the national polls. Trump has oscillated some but in a very small range.
Below's the August trend line. No, the picture is not as dynamic as what one will see elsewhere, but the trend is both noticeable and persistent.
Below's the August trend line. No, the picture is not as dynamic as what one will see elsewhere, but the trend is both noticeable and persistent.
September 2, 2024 at 1:55 PM
Indeed. Harris has gained a little each day since I started logging the national polls. Trump has oscillated some but in a very small range.
Below's the August trend line. No, the picture is not as dynamic as what one will see elsewhere, but the trend is both noticeable and persistent.
Below's the August trend line. No, the picture is not as dynamic as what one will see elsewhere, but the trend is both noticeable and persistent.
8 days until the ABC presidential debate
18 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
64 days until the presidential election
18 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
64 days until the presidential election
![Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.6%, Trump - 44.4%, Other - 5.3%. Undecided - 3.2% [Harris: +2.2] | Two-way: Harris - 48.7%, Trump - 46.5%, Other - 1.4%, Undecided - 2.8% [Harris: +2.2]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:c7trvxgv7veldmmrrcwyachq/bafkreief7wpjgx7eohxpymtiqfbsz7i56qdydzi23dsnhuky7yblmbuypq@jpeg)
September 2, 2024 at 11:11 AM
8 days until the ABC presidential debate
18 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
64 days until the presidential election
18 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
64 days until the presidential election
9 days until the ABC presidential debate
19 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
65 days until the presidential election
19 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
65 days until the presidential election
![Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.6%, Trump - 44.4%, Other - 5.3%. Undecided - 3.3% [Harris: +2.2] | Two-way: Harris - 48.6%, Trump - 46.6%, Other - 1.4%, Undecided - 2.9% [Harris: +2.0]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:c7trvxgv7veldmmrrcwyachq/bafkreichpa7tx54aeoumrww3sniboij5spel66d4q67oci6tfyqkwmhkdy@jpeg)
September 1, 2024 at 2:03 PM
9 days until the ABC presidential debate
19 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
65 days until the presidential election
19 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
65 days until the presidential election
10 days until the ABC presidential debate
20 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
66 days until the presidential election
20 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
66 days until the presidential election
![Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.6%, Trump - 44.4%, Other - 5.3%. Undecided - 3.3% [Harris: +2.2] | Two-way: Harris - 48.6%, Trump - 46.6%, Other - 1.4%, Undecided - 2.9% [Harris: +2.0]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:c7trvxgv7veldmmrrcwyachq/bafkreih3gsob6i55hl43tqxrd65aleafstdbozzahneewsacqeorsadbha@jpeg)
August 31, 2024 at 12:50 PM
10 days until the ABC presidential debate
20 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
66 days until the presidential election
20 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
66 days until the presidential election
11 days until the ABC presidential debate
21 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
67 days until the presidential election
21 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
67 days until the presidential election
![Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.4%, Trump - 44.3%, Other - 5.5%. Undecided - 3.3% [Harris: +2.1] | Two-way: Harris - 48.6%, Trump - 46.7%, Other - 1.2%, Undecided - 2.8% [Harris: +1.9]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:c7trvxgv7veldmmrrcwyachq/bafkreif2g3pduekj36rgbsbjjmsnnnmcckrmzbsytan7wzk5fei6o3qdwa@jpeg)
August 30, 2024 at 12:46 PM
11 days until the ABC presidential debate
21 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
67 days until the presidential election
21 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
67 days until the presidential election
12 days until the ABC presidential debate
22 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
68 days until the presidential election
22 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
68 days until the presidential election
![Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.3%, Trump - 44.3%, Other - 5.6%. Undecided - 3.3% [Harris: +2.0] | Two-way: Harris - 48.4%, Trump - 46.6%, Other - 1.3%, Undecided - 2.8% [Harris: +1.8]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:c7trvxgv7veldmmrrcwyachq/bafkreibe2gmnyzt45y7zejttgxvcnpzzgn2yzf5kgimp76aswpjvuzgkra@jpeg)
August 29, 2024 at 12:24 PM
12 days until the ABC presidential debate
22 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
68 days until the presidential election
22 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
68 days until the presidential election
13 days until the ABC presidential debate
23 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
69 days until the presidential election
23 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
69 days until the presidential election
![Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.3%, Trump - 44.4%, Other - 5.6%. Undecided - 3.2% [Harris: +1.9] Two-way: Harris - 48.4%, Trump - 46.7%, Other - 1.3%, Undecided - 2.7% [Harris: +1.7]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:c7trvxgv7veldmmrrcwyachq/bafkreic5nuumzlvvgvrfqqrkijp5gwdg67qqehs2pgufrmcao5ftyy5yxm@jpeg)
August 28, 2024 at 12:21 PM
13 days until the ABC presidential debate
23 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
69 days until the presidential election
23 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
69 days until the presidential election
14 days until the ABC presidential debate
24 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
70 days until the presidential election
24 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
70 days until the presidential election
![Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.2%, Trump - 44.3%, Other - 5.7%. Undecided - 3.2% [Harris: +1.9] Two-way: Harris - 48.4%, Trump - 46.7%, Other - 1.4%, Undecided - 2.6% [Harris: +1.7]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:c7trvxgv7veldmmrrcwyachq/bafkreictmlftkxppzukn7567q3alwj4prg3ts53rxj4cfj3p57ukf7z3ga@jpeg)
August 27, 2024 at 12:02 PM
14 days until the ABC presidential debate
24 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
70 days until the presidential election
24 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota)
70 days until the presidential election
15 days until the ABC presidential debate
21 days until early voting begins (in Pennsylvania)
71 days until the presidential election
21 days until early voting begins (in Pennsylvania)
71 days until the presidential election
![Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Full: Harris - 46.2%, Trump - 44.3%, Other - 5.7%. Undecided - 3.2% [Harris: +1.9] Two-way: Harris - 48.4%, Trump - 46.8%, Other - 1.3%, Undecided - 2.6% [Harris: +1.7]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:c7trvxgv7veldmmrrcwyachq/bafkreictyrgnsjvoyf6spzuf2ndkg4sukcqndvctzwvszcu6viyuzxac3a@jpeg)
August 26, 2024 at 7:39 PM
15 days until the ABC presidential debate
21 days until early voting begins (in Pennsylvania)
71 days until the presidential election
21 days until early voting begins (in Pennsylvania)
71 days until the presidential election
16 days until the ABC presidential debate
22 days until early voting begins (in Pennsylvania)
72 days until the presidential election
22 days until early voting begins (in Pennsylvania)
72 days until the presidential election
![Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Multi-way: Harris - 46.033%, Trump - 44.209%, Kennedy - 4.997%. Other - 4.761% [Harris: +1.825] Two-way: Harris - 48.372%, Trump - 46.765%, Other - 4.863% [Harris: +1.606]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:c7trvxgv7veldmmrrcwyachq/bafkreib223brfdh5f57oea6pci6mfq6mckebeyorfcutug4fd4zu67m6km@jpeg)
August 25, 2024 at 1:18 PM
16 days until the ABC presidential debate
22 days until early voting begins (in Pennsylvania)
72 days until the presidential election
22 days until early voting begins (in Pennsylvania)
72 days until the presidential election
17 days until the ABC presidential debate
23 days until early voting begins (in Pennsylvania)
73 days until the presidential election
23 days until early voting begins (in Pennsylvania)
73 days until the presidential election
![Presidential popular vote (based on a graduated weighted average of national polls) Multi-way: Harris - 46.020%, Trump - 44.241%, Kennedy - 5.102%. Other - 4.638% [Harris: +1.778] Two-way: Harris - 48.402%, Trump - 46.868%, Other - 4.731% [Harris: +1.534]](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:c7trvxgv7veldmmrrcwyachq/bafkreibrich3l7avgxo45wfvouisyhupplvey6r6ly4jwqwtbbalxpdjha@jpeg)
August 24, 2024 at 1:27 PM
17 days until the ABC presidential debate
23 days until early voting begins (in Pennsylvania)
73 days until the presidential election
23 days until early voting begins (in Pennsylvania)
73 days until the presidential election