Andrew B. Watkins
@windjunky.bsky.social
Australian climate scientist rambling about climate drivers, variability, risks, trends & impacts. Once played goalie for Antarctica. Born @ 325ppm.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/drandrewwatkins/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/drandrewwatkins/
Clearly @cathywilcox.bsky.social has read Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment.
(And some who should have, haven’t).
www.acs.gov.au/pages/nation...
(And some who should have, haven’t).
www.acs.gov.au/pages/nation...
November 17, 2025 at 9:19 PM
Clearly @cathywilcox.bsky.social has read Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment.
(And some who should have, haven’t).
www.acs.gov.au/pages/nation...
(And some who should have, haven’t).
www.acs.gov.au/pages/nation...
This is Australia’s transition risk (as opposed to physical risk). If we miss the boat on a transition to a new economy based around renewables & electrification, we could be in deep guano. Think Kodak inventing the digital camera, but sticking with print film.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
South Korean decision to close all coal-fired power plants by 2040 sounds alarm for Australian exports
Decision announced at Cop30 climate conference signposts risks for Australia’s reliance on fossil fuel exports, analysts say
www.theguardian.com
November 17, 2025 at 9:14 PM
This is Australia’s transition risk (as opposed to physical risk). If we miss the boat on a transition to a new economy based around renewables & electrification, we could be in deep guano. Think Kodak inventing the digital camera, but sticking with print film.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
A great short documentary on the landbridge that existed between the Victoria and Tasmania at the last glacial maximum (~20,000 years ago). I find the evidence (emus!) of what the bridge looked like fascinating. Do yourself a favour.
thelandbridge.au/the-document...
thelandbridge.au/the-document...
The Land Bridge Documentary
In this engaging film, experts wind the clock back 40,000 years to investigate the ancient landscape and deep human history of the Bass Strait land bridge.
thelandbridge.au
November 15, 2025 at 10:29 PM
A great short documentary on the landbridge that existed between the Victoria and Tasmania at the last glacial maximum (~20,000 years ago). I find the evidence (emus!) of what the bridge looked like fascinating. Do yourself a favour.
thelandbridge.au/the-document...
thelandbridge.au/the-document...
For once a plot about cold temperatures. If you're in Melbourne and think its been a whacky November, temperature wise, you're not wrong. That's 20C difference between the months coldest day and months hottest day.
www.baywx.com.au/melbmeantemp...
www.baywx.com.au/melbmeantemp...
November 13, 2025 at 11:34 PM
For once a plot about cold temperatures. If you're in Melbourne and think its been a whacky November, temperature wise, you're not wrong. That's 20C difference between the months coldest day and months hottest day.
www.baywx.com.au/melbmeantemp...
www.baywx.com.au/melbmeantemp...
Monash Uni Youth Barometer for 2025 just out.
4 out of every 5 think they'll be financially worse off than their parents, 1 in 4 rates their mental health as poor or worse, and sounds like they are simply giving up on my generation fixing the climate crisis.
Bugger
bridges.monash.edu/articles/rep...
4 out of every 5 think they'll be financially worse off than their parents, 1 in 4 rates their mental health as poor or worse, and sounds like they are simply giving up on my generation fixing the climate crisis.
Bugger
bridges.monash.edu/articles/rep...
The 2025 Australian Youth Barometer
The 2025 Australian Youth Barometer is a survey of more than 520 young Australians aged 18–24, and includes interviews with 30 more, about their experiences with the economy, work, education, health a...
bridges.monash.edu
November 13, 2025 at 10:48 AM
Monash Uni Youth Barometer for 2025 just out.
4 out of every 5 think they'll be financially worse off than their parents, 1 in 4 rates their mental health as poor or worse, and sounds like they are simply giving up on my generation fixing the climate crisis.
Bugger
bridges.monash.edu/articles/rep...
4 out of every 5 think they'll be financially worse off than their parents, 1 in 4 rates their mental health as poor or worse, and sounds like they are simply giving up on my generation fixing the climate crisis.
Bugger
bridges.monash.edu/articles/rep...
I’ve declined to give two seminars in the Woodside building so far. I’m glad a sensible decision to step away from fossil fuel interests has been made. It sends a message of hope to the next generations.
From @nteumonash.bsky.social...
In Academic Board this week, Vice-Chancellor Sharon Pickering announced that Monash University will end its controversial partnership with fossil fuel giant Woodside Energy. Vice-Chancellor Pickering also said that the Woodside Building will eventually be renamed.
In Academic Board this week, Vice-Chancellor Sharon Pickering announced that Monash University will end its controversial partnership with fossil fuel giant Woodside Energy. Vice-Chancellor Pickering also said that the Woodside Building will eventually be renamed.
November 11, 2025 at 9:35 AM
I’ve declined to give two seminars in the Woodside building so far. I’m glad a sensible decision to step away from fossil fuel interests has been made. It sends a message of hope to the next generations.
Classic Melbourne cold front moves up the bay
(Timelapse 4:30-:4:40pm today Monday 10/11/25)
(Timelapse 4:30-:4:40pm today Monday 10/11/25)
November 10, 2025 at 6:16 AM
Classic Melbourne cold front moves up the bay
(Timelapse 4:30-:4:40pm today Monday 10/11/25)
(Timelapse 4:30-:4:40pm today Monday 10/11/25)
November 9, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Projected total water demand may exceed total (natural) water supply before the end of the century in the western United States of America, Mediterranean regions, northern Africa, southern Africa, India, northern China, and southern Australia (red on map).
Paper at: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Paper at: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
November 9, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Projected total water demand may exceed total (natural) water supply before the end of the century in the western United States of America, Mediterranean regions, northern Africa, southern Africa, India, northern China, and southern Australia (red on map).
Paper at: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Paper at: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Great thread and links on global cities with high water insecurity by @thierryaaron.bsky.social
(Lack of water = angry people)
(Lack of water = angry people)
In 2020 @wwf.panda.org identified the 100 global cities expected to suffer the greatest rise in water risk by 2050- home to at least 350 million people!
We've already seen several megacities just days away from running dry.
Here's a🧵 with eg's
We've already seen several megacities just days away from running dry.
Here's a🧵 with eg's
November 9, 2025 at 8:30 AM
Great thread and links on global cities with high water insecurity by @thierryaaron.bsky.social
(Lack of water = angry people)
(Lack of water = angry people)
Drought situation in Iran (and Iraq) looks bad. Major supply dam for Tehran may run dry before December.
Another example of mid latitude regions drying around the globe coupled with natural climate variability + minimal preparation.
www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11...
www.forbes.com/sites/sanamm...
Another example of mid latitude regions drying around the globe coupled with natural climate variability + minimal preparation.
www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11...
www.forbes.com/sites/sanamm...
Drinking water in Tehran could run dry in two weeks, Iranian official says
A historic drought in the country has culminated in a '100 percent drop in precipitation' in the Tehran region.
www.aljazeera.com
November 9, 2025 at 7:59 AM
Drought situation in Iran (and Iraq) looks bad. Major supply dam for Tehran may run dry before December.
Another example of mid latitude regions drying around the globe coupled with natural climate variability + minimal preparation.
www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11...
www.forbes.com/sites/sanamm...
Another example of mid latitude regions drying around the globe coupled with natural climate variability + minimal preparation.
www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11...
www.forbes.com/sites/sanamm...
It’s come to this. So sad for my once amazing organisation.
That said, I still say 99% of people at the operational coalface put 110% every day into making Australia safer and more prosperous. I’ve never experienced more passion in a public service. Anywhere.
New CEO literally starts tomorrow.
That said, I still say 99% of people at the operational coalface put 110% every day into making Australia safer and more prosperous. I’ve never experienced more passion in a public service. Anywhere.
New CEO literally starts tomorrow.
BoM move to axe free flood warning tool has ‘potentially deadly consequences’, Queensland councils say
BoM move to axe free flood warning tool has ‘potentially deadly consequences’, Queensland councils say
Bureau of Meteorology says current system will be phased out as it no longer meets ‘cybersecurity, stability and resilience’ standards
*
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Natural disaster-prone councils in south-east Queensland say the Bureau of Meteorology’s decision to axe its free real-time flood forecasting tool is a “cost shifting” exercise with “potentially deadly consequences”, with New South Wales emergency services also affected.
For nearly 30 years, the BoM has provided local governments, emergency services and water managers around the country with free access to Enviromon – a tool used to inform emergency alert systems which collects, displays and analyses data from rainfall and river level gauges for flood forecasting. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
November 8, 2025 at 9:36 PM
It’s come to this. So sad for my once amazing organisation.
That said, I still say 99% of people at the operational coalface put 110% every day into making Australia safer and more prosperous. I’ve never experienced more passion in a public service. Anywhere.
New CEO literally starts tomorrow.
That said, I still say 99% of people at the operational coalface put 110% every day into making Australia safer and more prosperous. I’ve never experienced more passion in a public service. Anywhere.
New CEO literally starts tomorrow.
Shocking & inhumane in 2025 Australia.
65,000 First Nations’ households access electricity by prepaying with a national average of 49 disconnections per year *per household*. Disconnections double over 40°C.
Overwhelming future Climate Risk #NCRA
www.firstnationscleanenergy.org.au/national_inv...
65,000 First Nations’ households access electricity by prepaying with a national average of 49 disconnections per year *per household*. Disconnections double over 40°C.
Overwhelming future Climate Risk #NCRA
www.firstnationscleanenergy.org.au/national_inv...
National investigation into prepayment power arrangements reveal First Nations communities among world’s most energy insecure
National investigation into prepayment for power arrangements reveal First Nations communities among world’s most energy insecure. A new report, Right to Power, is being launched today by Original Po...
www.firstnationscleanenergy.org.au
November 8, 2025 at 12:04 AM
Shocking & inhumane in 2025 Australia.
65,000 First Nations’ households access electricity by prepaying with a national average of 49 disconnections per year *per household*. Disconnections double over 40°C.
Overwhelming future Climate Risk #NCRA
www.firstnationscleanenergy.org.au/national_inv...
65,000 First Nations’ households access electricity by prepaying with a national average of 49 disconnections per year *per household*. Disconnections double over 40°C.
Overwhelming future Climate Risk #NCRA
www.firstnationscleanenergy.org.au/national_inv...
Bugger.
Latest #Climate data shows a podium finish for 2025
We are in the decade where the 1.5°C limit is likely to be exceeded, highlighting the accelerating pace of climate change
Average global temperature for 2023–2025 is likely to exceed 1.5°C, the first three-year average to do so 🌡️🌏🧪⚒️
We are in the decade where the 1.5°C limit is likely to be exceeded, highlighting the accelerating pace of climate change
Average global temperature for 2023–2025 is likely to exceed 1.5°C, the first three-year average to do so 🌡️🌏🧪⚒️
November 7, 2025 at 10:20 AM
Bugger.
Now there's an idea for Australia...
Every MP now has a personal video invitation to the National Emergency Briefing.
This is about ensuring all policymakers are fully informed.
Find and send your MP’s invite:
#neb #timetostepup #NationalEmergencyBriefing
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
This is about ensuring all policymakers are fully informed.
Find and send your MP’s invite:
#neb #timetostepup #NationalEmergencyBriefing
docs.google.com/document/d/1...
November 6, 2025 at 11:09 PM
Now there's an idea for Australia...
November 5, 2025 at 10:54 PM
Insurance Australia Group (IAG) Severe Weather in a Changing Climate report
www.iag.com.au/severe-weath...
“The report complements Australia’s National Climate Risk Assessment (2025) … together with anticipated impacts for the finance & insurance industry.”
Key Planning Recommendations are given
www.iag.com.au/severe-weath...
“The report complements Australia’s National Climate Risk Assessment (2025) … together with anticipated impacts for the finance & insurance industry.”
Key Planning Recommendations are given
November 5, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Insurance Australia Group (IAG) Severe Weather in a Changing Climate report
www.iag.com.au/severe-weath...
“The report complements Australia’s National Climate Risk Assessment (2025) … together with anticipated impacts for the finance & insurance industry.”
Key Planning Recommendations are given
www.iag.com.au/severe-weath...
“The report complements Australia’s National Climate Risk Assessment (2025) … together with anticipated impacts for the finance & insurance industry.”
Key Planning Recommendations are given
Reposted by Andrew B. Watkins
Solar, batteries, and a bunch of nice-looking techno-solutionist 'exponential' curves aren't actually resulting in the rapid elimination of fossil fuels, which is the exact thing we need to do to resolve the threat of a deadly overheating atmosphere
will do a thread on this report later, when I can
will do a thread on this report later, when I can
New national climate plans have barely moved the needle on limiting global warming. Yet there is hope.
According to UNEP's latest #EmissionsGap Report, accelerated adoption of renewable energy and falling costs mean we have the tools to cut emissions now: www.unep.org/news-and-sto...
According to UNEP's latest #EmissionsGap Report, accelerated adoption of renewable energy and falling costs mean we have the tools to cut emissions now: www.unep.org/news-and-sto...
November 5, 2025 at 8:31 AM
Solar, batteries, and a bunch of nice-looking techno-solutionist 'exponential' curves aren't actually resulting in the rapid elimination of fossil fuels, which is the exact thing we need to do to resolve the threat of a deadly overheating atmosphere
will do a thread on this report later, when I can
will do a thread on this report later, when I can
The BoM insisting ‘the design only cost $4m’ is akin to pointing at your million dollar home and telling people “it only cost $10k (for the plans)”. #itsamilliondollarhome
November 5, 2025 at 2:36 AM
The BoM insisting ‘the design only cost $4m’ is akin to pointing at your million dollar home and telling people “it only cost $10k (for the plans)”. #itsamilliondollarhome
Reposted by Andrew B. Watkins
Sinking (warming) air over Antarctica, resulting from the weakened polar vortex, has produced an ongoing period of negative AAO/SAM.
November 5, 2025 at 12:48 AM
Sinking (warming) air over Antarctica, resulting from the weakened polar vortex, has produced an ongoing period of negative AAO/SAM.
November 4, 2025 at 11:39 PM
“Global warming projections over this century, based on full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are now 2.3-2.5°C, while those based on current policies are 2.8°C.”
UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025
www.unep.org/resources/em...
UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025
www.unep.org/resources/em...
November 4, 2025 at 11:03 PM
“Global warming projections over this century, based on full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are now 2.3-2.5°C, while those based on current policies are 2.8°C.”
UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025
www.unep.org/resources/em...
UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025
www.unep.org/resources/em...
New climate classification maps from BoM show the march southwards of the tropics and subtropics over recent decades.
#climatechange
www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps...
#climatechange
www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps...
November 3, 2025 at 9:29 AM
New climate classification maps from BoM show the march southwards of the tropics and subtropics over recent decades.
#climatechange
www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps...
#climatechange
www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps...
"The contract to build the {BoM} website, as opposed to its design, was originally signed to Accenture in August 2019 for $31.4 million... {this contract} has been amended 10 times ... and the full cost of the build has more than doubled to $78 million."
www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/2025/11...
www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/2025/11...
‘Practically unusable’: Inside the BoM’s website shambles
The Bureau of Meteorology’s new website was rushed out – years overdue and almost $47 million over budget – despite testing scores falling below the standard for release.
www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au
November 3, 2025 at 3:56 AM
"The contract to build the {BoM} website, as opposed to its design, was originally signed to Accenture in August 2019 for $31.4 million... {this contract} has been amended 10 times ... and the full cost of the build has more than doubled to $78 million."
www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/2025/11...
www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/2025/11...
Spencer Creek (Australia) snow depths, updated for 2025 (which many called a bumper year)
Source: snowdepth.info
Source: snowdepth.info
November 2, 2025 at 11:26 AM
Spencer Creek (Australia) snow depths, updated for 2025 (which many called a bumper year)
Source: snowdepth.info
Source: snowdepth.info