Will Royce
@willroyce.bsky.social
Researcher. Fan of the welfare state.
willroyce.substack.com
willroyce.substack.com
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Will Royce
@willroyce.bsky.social
· Sep 28
Presenting MAKESHIFT ARRANGEMENTS
A newsletter about the administration of the welfare state.
willroyce.substack.com
I'm starting a newsletter (ik, ik) focused on the administration of the welfare state. It's called Makeshift Arrangements, which is a reference to my favorite Frances Perkins quote. First full piece out tomorrow.
Read more below! Free to subscribe, and hey, you can always just unsubscribe later.
Read more below! Free to subscribe, and hey, you can always just unsubscribe later.
Insane stat: Nearly a quarter of all federal hires in September 2025 were ICE agents.
Normally, the agency hires 100-200 people per month, but in September, that number skyrocketed to over 2,800.
Normally, the agency hires 100-200 people per month, but in September, that number skyrocketed to over 2,800.
January 28, 2026 at 2:59 PM
Insane stat: Nearly a quarter of all federal hires in September 2025 were ICE agents.
Normally, the agency hires 100-200 people per month, but in September, that number skyrocketed to over 2,800.
Normally, the agency hires 100-200 people per month, but in September, that number skyrocketed to over 2,800.
In Nick Shirley's hourlong interview with "David" released yesterday, David says that Somalis are committing fraud to "further their goal of a world caliphate"
January 6, 2026 at 5:25 PM
In Nick Shirley's hourlong interview with "David" released yesterday, David says that Somalis are committing fraud to "further their goal of a world caliphate"
Reposted by Will Royce
If your concern is about fraud, and making sure the poorest receive funds, block grants are the opposite of what we should do. They allow states to redirect the money away from the neediest.
OTOH, there is very persuasive evidence that SNAP really helps people.
academic.oup.com/restud/artic...
OTOH, there is very persuasive evidence that SNAP really helps people.
academic.oup.com/restud/artic...
January 5, 2026 at 12:46 AM
If your concern is about fraud, and making sure the poorest receive funds, block grants are the opposite of what we should do. They allow states to redirect the money away from the neediest.
OTOH, there is very persuasive evidence that SNAP really helps people.
academic.oup.com/restud/artic...
OTOH, there is very persuasive evidence that SNAP really helps people.
academic.oup.com/restud/artic...
Reposted by Will Royce
The WaPO editorial equates error rates with fraud, and applaud Trump laws that will penalize states for error rates. Either they don't know that is incorrect, or they don't care. Here, @pamherd.bsky.social explains what error rates actually mean.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-big-be...
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-big-be...
The Big Beautiful Bill has a SNAP Poison Pill
How states will get the blame for massive cuts to food stamps
donmoynihan.substack.com
January 5, 2026 at 12:37 AM
The WaPO editorial equates error rates with fraud, and applaud Trump laws that will penalize states for error rates. Either they don't know that is incorrect, or they don't care. Here, @pamherd.bsky.social explains what error rates actually mean.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-big-be...
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/the-big-be...
Reposted by Will Royce
The Washington Post editorial board comes out in favor of the Venezuela attack/operation to capture Maduro
January 3, 2026 at 4:01 PM
The Washington Post editorial board comes out in favor of the Venezuela attack/operation to capture Maduro
Reposted by Will Royce
Shout out to @willroyce.bsky.social —an excellent researcher who later corroborated my id and had collected some valuable screenshots before they disappeared!
January 3, 2026 at 4:48 PM
Shout out to @willroyce.bsky.social —an excellent researcher who later corroborated my id and had collected some valuable screenshots before they disappeared!
Meet the “researcher” who Nick Shirley relied on for his viral Minnesota fraud video:
January 3, 2026 at 4:54 PM
Meet the “researcher” who Nick Shirley relied on for his viral Minnesota fraud video:
Reposted by Will Royce
NEW: The anonymous "researcher" in Nick Shirley's viral "fraud" video--treated as a concerned citizen on Fox News and elsewhere--is actually a Minnesota state lobbyist and political activist who worked with a GOP House staffer to provide Shirley info/
theintercept.com/2026/01/03/m...
theintercept.com/2026/01/03/m...
Unnamed Source in Viral Minnesota Somali Fraud Video Is Right-Wing Lobbyist Who Called Muslims “Demons”
David Hoch, who goes by his first name in Nick Shirley’s video allegedly exposing Somali fraud, referred to “demon Muslims” on social media.
theintercept.com
January 3, 2026 at 12:19 PM
NEW: The anonymous "researcher" in Nick Shirley's viral "fraud" video--treated as a concerned citizen on Fox News and elsewhere--is actually a Minnesota state lobbyist and political activist who worked with a GOP House staffer to provide Shirley info/
theintercept.com/2026/01/03/m...
theintercept.com/2026/01/03/m...
Remember that City Journal story that claimed Minnesota taxpayers are funding Al-Shabaab?
Apparently the only named source in the story says it's “bullshit." www.startribune.com/city-journal...
Apparently the only named source in the story says it's “bullshit." www.startribune.com/city-journal...
December 29, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Remember that City Journal story that claimed Minnesota taxpayers are funding Al-Shabaab?
Apparently the only named source in the story says it's “bullshit." www.startribune.com/city-journal...
Apparently the only named source in the story says it's “bullshit." www.startribune.com/city-journal...
"Idaho’s DOGE Committee will recommend repealing Medicaid expansion and eventually eliminating the state funding for the Idaho Commission on Hispanic Affairs."
Idaho DOGE recommends Medicaid expansion repeal, defunding Hispanic commission • Idaho Capital Sun
Idaho’s DOGE recommend Medicaid expansion repeal and eventually eliminating the state funding for the Idaho Commission on Hispanic Affairs.
idahocapitalsun.com
December 27, 2025 at 7:22 PM
"Idaho’s DOGE Committee will recommend repealing Medicaid expansion and eventually eliminating the state funding for the Idaho Commission on Hispanic Affairs."
These are really egregious errors, especially this first one. I took the time to email WSJ requesting a correction. You should too! I can send you what I wrote.
This op-ed is making the rounds on conservative Twitter. Tons wrong with it, but just to give you an idea:
A single parent with two school-age children earning $11,000 is not eligible for $3,400 in CTCs. The real amount is $1,275—less than half of what they say.
WSJ fact-checking a bit lackluster.
A single parent with two school-age children earning $11,000 is not eligible for $3,400 in CTCs. The real amount is $1,275—less than half of what they say.
WSJ fact-checking a bit lackluster.
December 21, 2025 at 6:09 PM
These are really egregious errors, especially this first one. I took the time to email WSJ requesting a correction. You should too! I can send you what I wrote.
This op-ed is making the rounds on conservative Twitter. Tons wrong with it, but just to give you an idea:
A single parent with two school-age children earning $11,000 is not eligible for $3,400 in CTCs. The real amount is $1,275—less than half of what they say.
WSJ fact-checking a bit lackluster.
A single parent with two school-age children earning $11,000 is not eligible for $3,400 in CTCs. The real amount is $1,275—less than half of what they say.
WSJ fact-checking a bit lackluster.
December 21, 2025 at 4:08 PM
This op-ed is making the rounds on conservative Twitter. Tons wrong with it, but just to give you an idea:
A single parent with two school-age children earning $11,000 is not eligible for $3,400 in CTCs. The real amount is $1,275—less than half of what they say.
WSJ fact-checking a bit lackluster.
A single parent with two school-age children earning $11,000 is not eligible for $3,400 in CTCs. The real amount is $1,275—less than half of what they say.
WSJ fact-checking a bit lackluster.
Can someone in good standing with the billionaires PLEASE tell them to stop using median household income within ZIP codes as a targeting mechanism!
December 19, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Can someone in good standing with the billionaires PLEASE tell them to stop using median household income within ZIP codes as a targeting mechanism!
I've been waiting for OPM to release updated federal employment data for months. In July, the agency said that "beginning this fall," it would release data in a "reimagined format."
But it seems that OPM is missing its own deadline. As of today, it says updated data will be available in January.
But it seems that OPM is missing its own deadline. As of today, it says updated data will be available in January.
December 18, 2025 at 7:33 PM
I've been waiting for OPM to release updated federal employment data for months. In July, the agency said that "beginning this fall," it would release data in a "reimagined format."
But it seems that OPM is missing its own deadline. As of today, it says updated data will be available in January.
But it seems that OPM is missing its own deadline. As of today, it says updated data will be available in January.
Reposted by Will Royce
The result of allocating money based on ZIP codes’ median incomes rather than actual household income:
INELIGIBLE: Household making $30k in South Boston (median income $156,000, child poverty rate ~26%)
ELIGIBLE: Household making $500k in Yonkers (median income $142,000, child poverty rate ~3%)
INELIGIBLE: Household making $30k in South Boston (median income $156,000, child poverty rate ~26%)
ELIGIBLE: Household making $500k in Yonkers (median income $142,000, child poverty rate ~3%)
December 14, 2025 at 4:07 PM
The result of allocating money based on ZIP codes’ median incomes rather than actual household income:
INELIGIBLE: Household making $30k in South Boston (median income $156,000, child poverty rate ~26%)
ELIGIBLE: Household making $500k in Yonkers (median income $142,000, child poverty rate ~3%)
INELIGIBLE: Household making $30k in South Boston (median income $156,000, child poverty rate ~26%)
ELIGIBLE: Household making $500k in Yonkers (median income $142,000, child poverty rate ~3%)
After months of trying and failing, I have finally figured out the solution to one of the most important issues of our time: left- and right-justifying text on the same line in google docs
December 15, 2025 at 12:31 AM
After months of trying and failing, I have finally figured out the solution to one of the most important issues of our time: left- and right-justifying text on the same line in google docs
Wrote this up for posterity ⬇️
December 14, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Wrote this up for posterity ⬇️
Adding in data from Sep, Oct Nov:
1. Disability claims still down a lot, but a little bit less than it looked like before
2. SSDI approval rating still down a lot, but trend looks a little less concerning than it did before
WE HAVE TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING ON!
1. Disability claims still down a lot, but a little bit less than it looked like before
2. SSDI approval rating still down a lot, but trend looks a little less concerning than it did before
WE HAVE TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING ON!
December 9, 2025 at 11:57 PM
Adding in data from Sep, Oct Nov:
1. Disability claims still down a lot, but a little bit less than it looked like before
2. SSDI approval rating still down a lot, but trend looks a little less concerning than it did before
WE HAVE TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING ON!
1. Disability claims still down a lot, but a little bit less than it looked like before
2. SSDI approval rating still down a lot, but trend looks a little less concerning than it did before
WE HAVE TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING ON!
Our brave troops protecting the Georgetown AMC bathrooms 💪
December 5, 2025 at 3:06 AM
Our brave troops protecting the Georgetown AMC bathrooms 💪
Missed that the Dell money is only available to people in ZIP codes with a median income <$150k
I am not aware of any program where targeting is based just on where you live and not individual/household income. Not that crazy for low-income people to live in high-income areas.
I am not aware of any program where targeting is based just on where you live and not individual/household income. Not that crazy for low-income people to live in high-income areas.
December 4, 2025 at 4:07 PM
Missed that the Dell money is only available to people in ZIP codes with a median income <$150k
I am not aware of any program where targeting is based just on where you live and not individual/household income. Not that crazy for low-income people to live in high-income areas.
I am not aware of any program where targeting is based just on where you live and not individual/household income. Not that crazy for low-income people to live in high-income areas.
"The State Department will finalize its layoffs of 250 foreign service officers on Friday, according to a new notice sent to impacted staff, despite a congressionally mandated moratorium on the cuts through January."
State becomes the latest agency to proceed with RIFs despite statutory pause
The deal to end the shutdown placed a moratorium on any action to implement layoffs, but some agency are moving forward anyway.
www.govexec.com
December 4, 2025 at 3:20 PM
"The State Department will finalize its layoffs of 250 foreign service officers on Friday, according to a new notice sent to impacted staff, despite a congressionally mandated moratorium on the cuts through January."
New post, in which I finally answer the question on everybody's mind: Why Are Disability Claims Down?
willroyce.substack.com/p/why-are-di...
willroyce.substack.com/p/why-are-di...
November 24, 2025 at 5:24 PM
New post, in which I finally answer the question on everybody's mind: Why Are Disability Claims Down?
willroyce.substack.com/p/why-are-di...
willroyce.substack.com/p/why-are-di...
Re: the provisions that prevent RIFs for the duration of the CR, any reason Trump admin won't contest that in court? Is that a thing that has been done before? Difficult to see how an admin that argues impoundments are lawful would accede to limits on their ability to fire fed workers?
November 10, 2025 at 1:31 AM
Re: the provisions that prevent RIFs for the duration of the CR, any reason Trump admin won't contest that in court? Is that a thing that has been done before? Difficult to see how an admin that argues impoundments are lawful would accede to limits on their ability to fire fed workers?
Reposted by Will Royce
New work requirements for Medicaid are expected to leave millions of Americans uninsured. For Equifax, which charges states steep prices for its trove of employment data, it is a business opportunity.
‘A Big Positive’: How One Company Plans to Profit From Medicaid Cuts
New work requirements are expected to leave millions of poor Americans uninsured. For Equifax, which charges states steep prices for its trove of employment data, it is a business opportunity.
nyti.ms
November 4, 2025 at 12:20 AM
New work requirements for Medicaid are expected to leave millions of Americans uninsured. For Equifax, which charges states steep prices for its trove of employment data, it is a business opportunity.
Poverty is a common, often temporary experience — though more common and less temporary for some
November 3, 2025 at 9:25 PM
Poverty is a common, often temporary experience — though more common and less temporary for some