The fact that we see repeat China-Philippines maritime confrontations in the South China Sea over the last 2 years, and in September China created a national nature reserve at the disputed Scarborough Shoal, are likely diversionary tactics partly driven by this. Be prepared for more to come. /9

PLA is a military that is in no state to start any serious fight. Though it is more than ready to stir up small scale skirmishes and grayzone tactics with neighbors to generate useful political diversion and let off some internal steam. /8

The PLA is in crutches; it's experiencing a broken chain of command and low morale (who's going to feel good about their job security when even all their big bosses repeatedly and suddenly get removed left and right with little to no prior sign?). /7

- Navy Commander Hu Zhongming
- Navy Political Commissar Yuan Huazhi (who was already publicly purged last month)

Huge occasion for Armament Dept, Southern Theater Command, and Navy, yet all of their top leaders are most likely being actively investigated or already purged. /6

Other relevant 4-star Generals who you would expect to show up at this big celebration for their portfolios were all noticeably absent. These include:
- CMC Armament Department Director Xu Wenqiang
- Southern Theater Commander Wu Yanan
- Southern Theater Command Political Commissar Wang Wenquan.../5

There were all top level military bodies for sure. Yet, aside from CMC Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia, there was not a single 4-star general and/or admiral at the ceremony.

That is 0. Zero. Zilch. /4

Per Xinhua news agency, Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the commissioning ceremony, as well as "relevant comrade officials from the
- Central Military Commission,
- Southern Military Theater Command (which covers South China Sea),
- and the Navy". /3

It's a huge occasion for China, as the Fujian is China's second autonomously developed aircraft carrier, and China's first to feature electromagnetic catapult, which significantly accelerates the speed of launching military aircrafts atop aircraft carriers. /2

This goes to show that as is usual for the Chinese strategic tradition, there is no use for military diplomacy when the much grander strategic foundation between the US and China is being actively redefined. /7

Sending relatively lower-level Chinese officials (instead of the Defense Minister):

- lowers the temperature without softening per se, and it

- disables the US from attempting negotiations across policy domains, defense and trade. --US DefSec vs Chinese bureau level officials? What's the point? /6

3. And nor does Beijing want to allow opportunity for US to use tariff negotiations to extract meaningful concessions from China on regional security matters.

So when stuck in a land of no good options, perhaps the path of least resistance is to simply #PlayDead and lower the stakes. /5

1. China can’t soften down now, not when US is publicly demanding it.

2. But tough security posturing might sour the mood with the US, and affect tariff negotiations. /4

The cloud of the tariff war negotiations looms over SLD.

As the premier Asian security forum, SLD is usually when Chinese Defense Ministers (who are all career soldiers) project toughness and draws their redlines. /3

Two explanations come to mind, one international and one domestic.

Internationally, there is not much role for military diplomacy to play when strategic foundation is being actively redefined. /2

For Xi, Mr Sung described the situation as a "two-level game".

Link to the story: www.bbc.com/news/article... /11

"China... needs to manage US-China bilateral negotiations, while domestically Beijing needs to save enough face so that the Chinese leadership can hold on to this narrative of 'the East is rising & the West is declining'," he says.

"Kowtowing of the East towards the West is not a rising East." /10