We likely won't realize the true scope of the ocean response to this MJO event until early Jan or so, but early signs already point to a pretty big ocean response, even before the WWB event in the West-Central Pacific has occurred

La Niña is living on borrowed time in the grand scheme of things

I definitely need to take better care of myself and get more regular exercise and eat healthier. Those things would also certainly help

It really depends on how far the eastern edge of the warm pool is zonally advected towards the central pacific the next few months whether the +TNH is associated with less -PNA or more +PNA late winter.

The current configuration is very favorable to +TNH tho

Hope so too!

That sounds somewhat similar to me though I may have some other compounding factors like pain medication and perhaps some sort of underlying condition (high blood pressure ?). But anxiety during this whole ordeal definitely made it worse.

Thank u!

Thank you Jack!!

Thank you 🙏

It’s so hard to get things to work out in the Desert Lowlands of southern NM & El Paso, even if the longwave pattern is there for a good snow event.

Oth, the pattern is close enough on some guidance to where it‘s legitimately possible (albeit rather unlikely) that they do.

A stronger PV is a better downward reflector of upward propagating wave energy. I do expect the PV to strengthen later in Jan or Feb given the east qbo/high solar combo

Yes for the most part.

I’m interested to see how ENSO evolves going into the next year, esp given what happened after this in 1982.

This increase in tropical westerly momentum favors an equatorward shift in the Pacific Jet Stream, which leads to an increase chance of high-latitude North Pacific blocking (-EPO), consistent with current model forecasts & Winters et al (2019)

journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

I think we see things transition sometime late in January or early February. Oth, this year is mostly following the Nina script to a T thus far