Jeff Berardelli
@weatherprof.bsky.social
Same @WeatherProf as Twitter. Posting about climate and weather. Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist WFLA NBC Tampa
Sorry Florida… No Rain Fo You!
(Well, techincally there will be a few drops over the next 2 weeks.)
And that’s too bad because we could really use a lot! Getting deeper into drought as the dry La Niña winter takes hold.
(Well, techincally there will be a few drops over the next 2 weeks.)
And that’s too bad because we could really use a lot! Getting deeper into drought as the dry La Niña winter takes hold.
November 22, 2025 at 12:23 AM
Sorry Florida… No Rain Fo You!
(Well, techincally there will be a few drops over the next 2 weeks.)
And that’s too bad because we could really use a lot! Getting deeper into drought as the dry La Niña winter takes hold.
(Well, techincally there will be a few drops over the next 2 weeks.)
And that’s too bad because we could really use a lot! Getting deeper into drought as the dry La Niña winter takes hold.
We have a tendency in weather to focus on the shiny object. Right now that shiny object is the cold, which is elusive.
The reality: over the past week, the US has seen a Blow Torch. 100s of heat records to just a dozen cold. The heat continues through midweek.
The reality: over the past week, the US has seen a Blow Torch. 100s of heat records to just a dozen cold. The heat continues through midweek.
November 21, 2025 at 3:58 PM
We have a tendency in weather to focus on the shiny object. Right now that shiny object is the cold, which is elusive.
The reality: over the past week, the US has seen a Blow Torch. 100s of heat records to just a dozen cold. The heat continues through midweek.
The reality: over the past week, the US has seen a Blow Torch. 100s of heat records to just a dozen cold. The heat continues through midweek.
While the entire weather enterprise - it seems - is focused on extreme US cold - which may take weeks to materialize, the country has been roasting. Over the past 7 days 100s of heat records have been broken, and the nation as a whole has been ~4F above normal. +20F near the Ark-La-Tx!!
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November 21, 2025 at 2:27 PM
While the entire weather enterprise - it seems - is focused on extreme US cold - which may take weeks to materialize, the country has been roasting. Over the past 7 days 100s of heat records have been broken, and the nation as a whole has been ~4F above normal. +20F near the Ark-La-Tx!!
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We are parched.
November 20, 2025 at 5:26 PM
We are parched.
As it pertains to weather preference, Are you boots or bikini type?
November 20, 2025 at 4:40 AM
As it pertains to weather preference, Are you boots or bikini type?
Hurricane forecasting: Humans are still King, but AI is catching up?!
Here’s a very simple & limited comparison 5 days out of the best and worst forecasts for #Melissa on left and the season on right.
Not to pile on the GFS/ American model, but it had a bad season overall... 1/
Here’s a very simple & limited comparison 5 days out of the best and worst forecasts for #Melissa on left and the season on right.
Not to pile on the GFS/ American model, but it had a bad season overall... 1/
November 19, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Hurricane forecasting: Humans are still King, but AI is catching up?!
Here’s a very simple & limited comparison 5 days out of the best and worst forecasts for #Melissa on left and the season on right.
Not to pile on the GFS/ American model, but it had a bad season overall... 1/
Here’s a very simple & limited comparison 5 days out of the best and worst forecasts for #Melissa on left and the season on right.
Not to pile on the GFS/ American model, but it had a bad season overall... 1/
Big Polar Plunge across Europe as the jet stream takes a nose dive! Temps 10-20C below normal! Lots of snow in the mountains!!
November 19, 2025 at 6:54 AM
Big Polar Plunge across Europe as the jet stream takes a nose dive! Temps 10-20C below normal! Lots of snow in the mountains!!
While the weather world is focused on the expected big pattern shift and possible Arctic Outbreak after the Thanksgiving’s Turkey 🦃 deep fry, the nation’s middle is frying right now! Summery today at 25 degrees above normal, and 40 record highs!Dozens more through week’s end… (records via CoolWx)
November 18, 2025 at 10:59 PM
While the weather world is focused on the expected big pattern shift and possible Arctic Outbreak after the Thanksgiving’s Turkey 🦃 deep fry, the nation’s middle is frying right now! Summery today at 25 degrees above normal, and 40 record highs!Dozens more through week’s end… (records via CoolWx)
November 18, 2025 at 4:13 PM
This is how our forecast Polar Vortex Breakdown - Sudden Stratospheric Warming - plays out over the next 2 weeks ~20 miles aloft, as per the GFS model. This top and bottom comparison is a good visual on how breakdown occurs…
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November 18, 2025 at 12:59 PM
This is how our forecast Polar Vortex Breakdown - Sudden Stratospheric Warming - plays out over the next 2 weeks ~20 miles aloft, as per the GFS model. This top and bottom comparison is a good visual on how breakdown occurs…
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Fee-fi-fo-fum the Polar Vortex is about to come undone! 😳
That typically means wild weather/ big time cold to follow!
But wait, don’t head for the hills just yet. I assure you the sky won’t fall.
Seriously though, you’re bound to hear about this, and the science is fascinating, so let’s dig in… 1/
That typically means wild weather/ big time cold to follow!
But wait, don’t head for the hills just yet. I assure you the sky won’t fall.
Seriously though, you’re bound to hear about this, and the science is fascinating, so let’s dig in… 1/
November 18, 2025 at 12:13 AM
Fee-fi-fo-fum the Polar Vortex is about to come undone! 😳
That typically means wild weather/ big time cold to follow!
But wait, don’t head for the hills just yet. I assure you the sky won’t fall.
Seriously though, you’re bound to hear about this, and the science is fascinating, so let’s dig in… 1/
That typically means wild weather/ big time cold to follow!
But wait, don’t head for the hills just yet. I assure you the sky won’t fall.
Seriously though, you’re bound to hear about this, and the science is fascinating, so let’s dig in… 1/
I missed this study during the summer. It’s interesting. Using NASA Grace data: Two main points about fresh water depletion and sea-level rise.
Thread… 1/
Thread… 1/
November 17, 2025 at 5:11 PM
I missed this study during the summer. It’s interesting. Using NASA Grace data: Two main points about fresh water depletion and sea-level rise.
Thread… 1/
Thread… 1/
Are farting cows climate criminals?
Sounds hard to believe, but Livestock (farmed animals) are responsible for about 10% of global warming!
However, the farting part… that’s not quite right.
(For the record, I’m not a cow hater. In fact, I like them so much, I don’t eat them.)
Sounds hard to believe, but Livestock (farmed animals) are responsible for about 10% of global warming!
However, the farting part… that’s not quite right.
(For the record, I’m not a cow hater. In fact, I like them so much, I don’t eat them.)
November 17, 2025 at 2:28 PM
Are farting cows climate criminals?
Sounds hard to believe, but Livestock (farmed animals) are responsible for about 10% of global warming!
However, the farting part… that’s not quite right.
(For the record, I’m not a cow hater. In fact, I like them so much, I don’t eat them.)
Sounds hard to believe, but Livestock (farmed animals) are responsible for about 10% of global warming!
However, the farting part… that’s not quite right.
(For the record, I’m not a cow hater. In fact, I like them so much, I don’t eat them.)
Didn’t see this coming…
“Global Mean Sea Level Rise promotes stronger & more frequent extreme cold events… is expected to strengthen in coming century…This effect is attributed to weakened mid-high latitude westerly winds and increased occurrence of blocking events”
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
“Global Mean Sea Level Rise promotes stronger & more frequent extreme cold events… is expected to strengthen in coming century…This effect is attributed to weakened mid-high latitude westerly winds and increased occurrence of blocking events”
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
November 15, 2025 at 5:19 AM
Didn’t see this coming…
“Global Mean Sea Level Rise promotes stronger & more frequent extreme cold events… is expected to strengthen in coming century…This effect is attributed to weakened mid-high latitude westerly winds and increased occurrence of blocking events”
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
“Global Mean Sea Level Rise promotes stronger & more frequent extreme cold events… is expected to strengthen in coming century…This effect is attributed to weakened mid-high latitude westerly winds and increased occurrence of blocking events”
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Pound for pound, this heat dome is every bit as impressive (or more) as the cold snap. Even more records. But since the temps are comfortable, it won’t make much news.
November 14, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Pound for pound, this heat dome is every bit as impressive (or more) as the cold snap. Even more records. But since the temps are comfortable, it won’t make much news.
You thought our Deep South record cold was impressive? Take a look at this record heat! 100 plus record highs today across the Nation’s middle. Temps in some of the Northern Plains besting Florida!
Pretty darn comfortable for November.
Pretty darn comfortable for November.
November 14, 2025 at 9:29 PM
You thought our Deep South record cold was impressive? Take a look at this record heat! 100 plus record highs today across the Nation’s middle. Temps in some of the Northern Plains besting Florida!
Pretty darn comfortable for November.
Pretty darn comfortable for November.
In Ironic news: Iceland is freaking out about… checks notes…
Ice! 🧊
News at 11…
It’s funny. But there’s truth here.
The Atlantic circulation is in danger of collapse in the next couple of decades due to global warming, as per many new studies… 1/
Ice! 🧊
News at 11…
It’s funny. But there’s truth here.
The Atlantic circulation is in danger of collapse in the next couple of decades due to global warming, as per many new studies… 1/
November 14, 2025 at 4:44 PM
In Ironic news: Iceland is freaking out about… checks notes…
Ice! 🧊
News at 11…
It’s funny. But there’s truth here.
The Atlantic circulation is in danger of collapse in the next couple of decades due to global warming, as per many new studies… 1/
Ice! 🧊
News at 11…
It’s funny. But there’s truth here.
The Atlantic circulation is in danger of collapse in the next couple of decades due to global warming, as per many new studies… 1/
The cold snap made the headlines, but the warmth in the nation’s middle now will fly by the radar.
70 heat records in jeopardy today (record highs and record warm lows) with temps 20-30 degrees above normal.
A pleasant break before the winter chill sets in.
70 heat records in jeopardy today (record highs and record warm lows) with temps 20-30 degrees above normal.
A pleasant break before the winter chill sets in.
November 14, 2025 at 1:56 PM
The cold snap made the headlines, but the warmth in the nation’s middle now will fly by the radar.
70 heat records in jeopardy today (record highs and record warm lows) with temps 20-30 degrees above normal.
A pleasant break before the winter chill sets in.
70 heat records in jeopardy today (record highs and record warm lows) with temps 20-30 degrees above normal.
A pleasant break before the winter chill sets in.
Get ready to rock and roll!
A Sudden Stratospheric Warming is on the way. In about two weeks, temperatures 12 miles up over Canada and Greenland are forecast to spike by 50°F or more. That’s a shockwave in the stratosphere — a rapid disruption of the polar vortex high above the Arctic… 1/
A Sudden Stratospheric Warming is on the way. In about two weeks, temperatures 12 miles up over Canada and Greenland are forecast to spike by 50°F or more. That’s a shockwave in the stratosphere — a rapid disruption of the polar vortex high above the Arctic… 1/
November 13, 2025 at 2:05 PM
Get ready to rock and roll!
A Sudden Stratospheric Warming is on the way. In about two weeks, temperatures 12 miles up over Canada and Greenland are forecast to spike by 50°F or more. That’s a shockwave in the stratosphere — a rapid disruption of the polar vortex high above the Arctic… 1/
A Sudden Stratospheric Warming is on the way. In about two weeks, temperatures 12 miles up over Canada and Greenland are forecast to spike by 50°F or more. That’s a shockwave in the stratosphere — a rapid disruption of the polar vortex high above the Arctic… 1/
The simple and fascinating science behind the #Aurora #northernlights
November 13, 2025 at 3:26 AM
The simple and fascinating science behind the #Aurora #northernlights
Reposted by Jeff Berardelli
With #Melissa now an extratropical cyclone in the north Atlantic, here's a look at the preliminary track and intensity verification stats for the storm's 10-day lifetime.
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October 31, 2025 at 4:04 PM
With #Melissa now an extratropical cyclone in the north Atlantic, here's a look at the preliminary track and intensity verification stats for the storm's 10-day lifetime.
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Just discovered something very surprising.
The last time Tampa broke a daily record low was 2015 - 10 years ago!!
Makes this week’s 133 year record low all the more impressive!
I’ll post the receipt in the comments.
The last time Tampa broke a daily record low was 2015 - 10 years ago!!
Makes this week’s 133 year record low all the more impressive!
I’ll post the receipt in the comments.
November 12, 2025 at 11:08 PM
Just discovered something very surprising.
The last time Tampa broke a daily record low was 2015 - 10 years ago!!
Makes this week’s 133 year record low all the more impressive!
I’ll post the receipt in the comments.
The last time Tampa broke a daily record low was 2015 - 10 years ago!!
Makes this week’s 133 year record low all the more impressive!
I’ll post the receipt in the comments.
This record cold snap brought Tampa its first morning in the 30s of the season. It was a Herculean feat! Why?
Because many years no longer even have 1 anyone. Days below 40 degrees days are dwindling fast across Central-South Florida. And record cold is now “almost” non-existent here. 1/
Because many years no longer even have 1 anyone. Days below 40 degrees days are dwindling fast across Central-South Florida. And record cold is now “almost” non-existent here. 1/
November 12, 2025 at 2:40 PM
This record cold snap brought Tampa its first morning in the 30s of the season. It was a Herculean feat! Why?
Because many years no longer even have 1 anyone. Days below 40 degrees days are dwindling fast across Central-South Florida. And record cold is now “almost” non-existent here. 1/
Because many years no longer even have 1 anyone. Days below 40 degrees days are dwindling fast across Central-South Florida. And record cold is now “almost” non-existent here. 1/
The coldest air on the planet - relative to normal - is over FL now! The cold pool is being forced south by overwhelming Arctic warmth.
While FL won’t bear the brunt for much longer, the Arctic will become even more off-kilter over the coming weeks. That means weather shenanigans will abound!
While FL won’t bear the brunt for much longer, the Arctic will become even more off-kilter over the coming weeks. That means weather shenanigans will abound!
November 12, 2025 at 3:48 AM
The coldest air on the planet - relative to normal - is over FL now! The cold pool is being forced south by overwhelming Arctic warmth.
While FL won’t bear the brunt for much longer, the Arctic will become even more off-kilter over the coming weeks. That means weather shenanigans will abound!
While FL won’t bear the brunt for much longer, the Arctic will become even more off-kilter over the coming weeks. That means weather shenanigans will abound!