Hesham Sallam
@wazirelkif.bsky.social
Stanford, Jadaliyya, among others. Opinions are mine
When you combine these trends with the breakdown of party list seat distributions (see thread below), it seems that the political leadership is shifting toward a system of "ruling multi-partism"--i.e., a reliance on a multitude of political arms to manage and govern political life.
More to come...
More to come...
November 12, 2025 at 4:44 AM
When you combine these trends with the breakdown of party list seat distributions (see thread below), it seems that the political leadership is shifting toward a system of "ruling multi-partism"--i.e., a reliance on a multitude of political arms to manage and govern political life.
More to come...
More to come...
This has not happened. We find that only 9 percent of Al-Gabha's founding authority had former ties to Mustaqbal Watan.
November 12, 2025 at 4:44 AM
This has not happened. We find that only 9 percent of Al-Gabha's founding authority had former ties to Mustaqbal Watan.
...that there would be a mass exodus from Mustaqbal Watan to Al-Gabha (along the lines of what happened under Sadat when the NDP supplanted the Egypt Arab Socialist Party), and that Al-Gabha would become a replica of Mustaqbal Watan.
November 12, 2025 at 4:44 AM
...that there would be a mass exodus from Mustaqbal Watan to Al-Gabha (along the lines of what happened under Sadat when the NDP supplanted the Egypt Arab Socialist Party), and that Al-Gabha would become a replica of Mustaqbal Watan.
The other crucial point pertains to past speculations that Al-Gabha was going to become the ruling establishment "new game in town" and...
November 12, 2025 at 4:44 AM
The other crucial point pertains to past speculations that Al-Gabha was going to become the ruling establishment "new game in town" and...
In other words, Al-Gabha's ascendence may be partly driven by an interest in counterbalancing the influence of Mustaqbal Watan and the security bodies supporting it-- but Mustaqbal Watan remains a force to reckon with.
November 12, 2025 at 4:44 AM
In other words, Al-Gabha's ascendence may be partly driven by an interest in counterbalancing the influence of Mustaqbal Watan and the security bodies supporting it-- but Mustaqbal Watan remains a force to reckon with.
By my count, over half of the members of Mustaqbal Watan's Central Secretariat had ties to the former NDP (as of 2024). The founding authority of Al-Gabha had less than 10 percent representation for individuals tied to the NDP.
November 12, 2025 at 4:44 AM
By my count, over half of the members of Mustaqbal Watan's Central Secretariat had ties to the former NDP (as of 2024). The founding authority of Al-Gabha had less than 10 percent representation for individuals tied to the NDP.
This constituency is less represented in Al-Gabha Al-Wataniyya, the latest addition to the list of pro-regime parties.
November 12, 2025 at 4:44 AM
This constituency is less represented in Al-Gabha Al-Wataniyya, the latest addition to the list of pro-regime parties.
More on all this soon...
November 11, 2025 at 5:04 AM
More on all this soon...
This development reflects the regime's interest in making room for new allies & clients in the (tightly controlled) political sphere. It also suggests that the political leadership is seeking to create more balance between the competing security agencies these various parties have come to represent.
November 11, 2025 at 5:04 AM
This development reflects the regime's interest in making room for new allies & clients in the (tightly controlled) political sphere. It also suggests that the political leadership is seeking to create more balance between the competing security agencies these various parties have come to represent.
This round seems to be geared toward distributing the role of the "acting ruling party" to a multitude of players instead of limiting that role to just Mustaqbal Watan, as had been the case since 2020.
November 11, 2025 at 5:04 AM
This round seems to be geared toward distributing the role of the "acting ruling party" to a multitude of players instead of limiting that role to just Mustaqbal Watan, as had been the case since 2020.
Every election since 2015 has resulted in a reconfiguration of the political apparatus (see my two-part article on this on Jadaliyya www.jadaliyya.com/Details/45214 www.jadaliyya.com/Details/45215)
Grooming and Gaslighting in Egypt’s New Republic (Part 1)
#The_New_Republic (الجمهوريةــالجديدة#) was the hashtag featured on every television screen in Egypt last month to mark ten years since the birth of the political order that came into being after the ...
www.jadaliyya.com
November 11, 2025 at 5:04 AM
Every election since 2015 has resulted in a reconfiguration of the political apparatus (see my two-part article on this on Jadaliyya www.jadaliyya.com/Details/45214 www.jadaliyya.com/Details/45215)
Their rise was offset by loss of representation of regime-allied independent parties like Al-Wafd, Al-Tagammu and others, not to mention the decline in representation of non-partisan figures in the list.
November 11, 2025 at 5:04 AM
Their rise was offset by loss of representation of regime-allied independent parties like Al-Wafd, Al-Tagammu and others, not to mention the decline in representation of non-partisan figures in the list.
The rise of Al-Gabha and of Humat Watan (previously a more junior partner in that electoral alliance) did not come primarily at the expense of Mustaqbal Watan.
November 11, 2025 at 5:04 AM
The rise of Al-Gabha and of Humat Watan (previously a more junior partner in that electoral alliance) did not come primarily at the expense of Mustaqbal Watan.
While Al-Gabha has a lot of backing from political leadership, it remains a work in progress. It is, therefore, not surprising that it is taking a back seat to Mustaqbal Watan--*for now*.
November 11, 2025 at 5:04 AM
While Al-Gabha has a lot of backing from political leadership, it remains a work in progress. It is, therefore, not surprising that it is taking a back seat to Mustaqbal Watan--*for now*.
Al-Gabha is, thus far, nothing more than an umbrella for public figures allied with a different security body, one with less experience in fielding candidates and managing the theatrics and aesthetics of authoritarian elections.
November 11, 2025 at 5:04 AM
Al-Gabha is, thus far, nothing more than an umbrella for public figures allied with a different security body, one with less experience in fielding candidates and managing the theatrics and aesthetics of authoritarian elections.
This could be partly attributed to the fact that Mustaqbal Watan is still the primary hub for the political networks of the Mubarak regime--a political class with a long experience in contesting authoritarian elections in coordination with the domestic security apparatus.
November 11, 2025 at 5:04 AM
This could be partly attributed to the fact that Mustaqbal Watan is still the primary hub for the political networks of the Mubarak regime--a political class with a long experience in contesting authoritarian elections in coordination with the domestic security apparatus.
We find, however, that Mustaqbal Watan remains the largest party in this coalition (as reflected by the continued dominance of their share of seats in the state-sponsored party list).
November 11, 2025 at 5:04 AM
We find, however, that Mustaqbal Watan remains the largest party in this coalition (as reflected by the continued dominance of their share of seats in the state-sponsored party list).
A lot has been said about the swift emergence of Al-Gabha Al-Wataniyya, sponsored by Sisi allied business mogul Ibrahim Al-Organy. Speculations had been circulating about the possibility that it would replace Mustaqbal Watan as the regime's primary political arm.
November 11, 2025 at 5:04 AM
A lot has been said about the swift emergence of Al-Gabha Al-Wataniyya, sponsored by Sisi allied business mogul Ibrahim Al-Organy. Speculations had been circulating about the possibility that it would replace Mustaqbal Watan as the regime's primary political arm.
The Trump administration’s green lighting Microsoft’s Nvidia chips deal with the UAE just as the (UAE-backed and armed) RSF militia is committing war crimes against the people of Darfur leaves me at a loss for words.
November 5, 2025 at 4:22 PM
The Trump administration’s green lighting Microsoft’s Nvidia chips deal with the UAE just as the (UAE-backed and armed) RSF militia is committing war crimes against the people of Darfur leaves me at a loss for words.
New York is a model for imagining a path toward a more humane and inclusive alternative.
A seal has been broken and people will not unsee this.
A seal has been broken and people will not unsee this.
November 5, 2025 at 4:03 PM
New York is a model for imagining a path toward a more humane and inclusive alternative.
A seal has been broken and people will not unsee this.
A seal has been broken and people will not unsee this.
To me, this is not the story of a Muslim politician winning office, but the story of an entire city defying the sectarianism and fear-mongering of the national political elites (of the right and the left) and asserting its will through a peaceful and positive message.
November 5, 2025 at 4:03 PM
To me, this is not the story of a Muslim politician winning office, but the story of an entire city defying the sectarianism and fear-mongering of the national political elites (of the right and the left) and asserting its will through a peaceful and positive message.