We show that the revolutionary overhaul in inheritance laws in 1793 was a key driver of France's early fertility decline.

In dismantling the Ancien Régime, the revolutionaries inadvertently triggered the world's first fertility transition, at least half a century ahead of any other country.

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We further support this finding by qualitative historical evidence and plot-level cadaster data.

E.g., député Cazales in 1791, opposing the inheritance reform: "[t]his equal share that one would be obliged to give to their younger siblings might even prevent them from being born"

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These reforms reduced parents' economic incentives for having children to avoid land fragmentation among many heirs and production falling below the subsistence threshold.

Indeed, we find that the effect is driven by locations where soil conditions made small farms more prevalent.

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Across both designs, inheritance reforms reduced women's completed fertility by about 0.5 children and closed the fertility gap between areas with different historical inheritance rules.

Overall, these reforms account for about a third of France’s fertility transition.

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We measure fertility at the individual level before and after the Revolution using the Henry survey and large-scale online genealogies from www.geni.com.

Our empirical strategy combines a DiD with a spatial RD around inheritance regime borders.

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Bonus: we wrote two companion papers documenting sources, GIS construction methodology, and proposing ideas for future research.

Data are publicly available for other researchers to use.

- Bailliages 👉 doi.org/10.1016/j.jh...
- Customary regions 👉 doi.org/10.1016/j.ee...

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But Le Play’s hypothesis was never systematically tested due to data limitations.

Our solution: construct an atlas of inheritance rules before the Revolution by combining two historical GIS of judicial districts (bailliages) and customary regions in Ancien Régime France.

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Why a puzzle?

1. Timing: it started half a century before industrialization.

2. Speed: the sharp decline around 1789 cannot be explained by slowly evolving cultural norms.

Solution?

👉 A long-standing hypothesis by Le Play (1875): revolutionary inheritance reforms enacted in 1793.

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One of the big puzzles in history is why the first demographic transition began in France, as early as 1789.

With Paula Gobbi and Marc Goñi, we show that a key driver was the French Revolution and its inheritance reforms.

Now forthcoming at JPE 👉 www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

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Call for abstracts for interdisciplinary conference on "Popular Support for Autocratic Regimes in Historical Perspective," May 26-27 in Toulouse @tse-fr.eu

Deadline: Nov 15. Travel/accommodation will be covered.

Please apply!

Co-organized with Jan Stuckatz, Selina Hofstetter, and Mikkel Dack.