Vera Wilde
@verawil.de
Scientist (PhD), writer, transparency activist. Nerd-of-all-trades (research methodologist). Seeker of truth, especially wild.
Oh noed!
It hath snowed
on my freshly planted windowboxes.
It hath snowed
on my freshly planted windowboxes.
November 24, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Oh noed!
It hath snowed
on my freshly planted windowboxes.
It hath snowed
on my freshly planted windowboxes.
Five-year-old: "They're monster cookies...
"This one is in profile."
"This one is in profile."
November 20, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Five-year-old: "They're monster cookies...
"This one is in profile."
"This one is in profile."
Finally built a working version of the Rarity Roulette simulator! verawilde.github.io/rarity-roule...
It's an app to help visualize estimated hypothetical outcomes of mass screenings for low-prevalence problems.
More: wildetruth.substack.com/p/rarity-rou...
Would love feedback + feature requests.
It's an app to help visualize estimated hypothetical outcomes of mass screenings for low-prevalence problems.
More: wildetruth.substack.com/p/rarity-rou...
Would love feedback + feature requests.
November 18, 2025 at 10:54 AM
Finally built a working version of the Rarity Roulette simulator! verawilde.github.io/rarity-roule...
It's an app to help visualize estimated hypothetical outcomes of mass screenings for low-prevalence problems.
More: wildetruth.substack.com/p/rarity-rou...
Would love feedback + feature requests.
It's an app to help visualize estimated hypothetical outcomes of mass screenings for low-prevalence problems.
More: wildetruth.substack.com/p/rarity-rou...
Would love feedback + feature requests.
Pediatrician: Does your six month old say "baba"?
Me: My baby says "hi," "hey," "Mama," "I go," and ("Are you gonna go get your brother?") "I'm gonna"!
Me: My baby says "hi," "hey," "Mama," "I go," and ("Are you gonna go get your brother?") "I'm gonna"!
July 31, 2025 at 9:53 AM
Pediatrician: Does your six month old say "baba"?
Me: My baby says "hi," "hey," "Mama," "I go," and ("Are you gonna go get your brother?") "I'm gonna"!
Me: My baby says "hi," "hey," "Mama," "I go," and ("Are you gonna go get your brother?") "I'm gonna"!
Day 5 with my mother.
Please send help.
Chocolate, flame-throwers --
every bit helps.
Please send help.
Chocolate, flame-throwers --
every bit helps.
July 15, 2025 at 2:38 PM
Day 5 with my mother.
Please send help.
Chocolate, flame-throwers --
every bit helps.
Please send help.
Chocolate, flame-throwers --
every bit helps.
wildetruth.substack.com/p/you-say-to...
Frustrated with how iterated screening models often throw away info, I fell into a Bayesian search rabbit hole so you don't have to!
Spoiler: it means different things to different people, and multilevel modeling may make more sense.
Frustrated with how iterated screening models often throw away info, I fell into a Bayesian search rabbit hole so you don't have to!
Spoiler: it means different things to different people, and multilevel modeling may make more sense.
June 26, 2025 at 12:42 PM
wildetruth.substack.com/p/you-say-to...
Frustrated with how iterated screening models often throw away info, I fell into a Bayesian search rabbit hole so you don't have to!
Spoiler: it means different things to different people, and multilevel modeling may make more sense.
Frustrated with how iterated screening models often throw away info, I fell into a Bayesian search rabbit hole so you don't have to!
Spoiler: it means different things to different people, and multilevel modeling may make more sense.
A lost bear -- found. A New Yorker article -- flawed. An endpoints rainbow for vaccines -- sketched. And a question about how to extend that to security and other rule-abidingness domains. (Or: Wait, what was the question?)
wildetruth.substack.com/p/the-bear-t...
wildetruth.substack.com/p/the-bear-t...
June 23, 2025 at 12:12 PM
A lost bear -- found. A New Yorker article -- flawed. An endpoints rainbow for vaccines -- sketched. And a question about how to extend that to security and other rule-abidingness domains. (Or: Wait, what was the question?)
wildetruth.substack.com/p/the-bear-t...
wildetruth.substack.com/p/the-bear-t...
3/4 plants agree having a baby in January was survivable!
June 9, 2025 at 8:41 PM
3/4 plants agree having a baby in January was survivable!
Most frame abortion as life and death. Both sides prioritize different lives.
But what if the epistemic structure of the problem is that of a mass screening for a low-prevalence problem? That would mean we can estimate type I and type II errors.
wildetruth.substack.com/p/abortion-a...
But what if the epistemic structure of the problem is that of a mass screening for a low-prevalence problem? That would mean we can estimate type I and type II errors.
wildetruth.substack.com/p/abortion-a...
May 27, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Most frame abortion as life and death. Both sides prioritize different lives.
But what if the epistemic structure of the problem is that of a mass screening for a low-prevalence problem? That would mean we can estimate type I and type II errors.
wildetruth.substack.com/p/abortion-a...
But what if the epistemic structure of the problem is that of a mass screening for a low-prevalence problem? That would mean we can estimate type I and type II errors.
wildetruth.substack.com/p/abortion-a...
"These Are A Few of My Favorite Things"
That DAGs don't do: feedbacks, bias, private information, perverse incentives, moderation, and telling you where to cut the graph.
wildetruth.substack.com/p/these-are-...
That DAGs don't do: feedbacks, bias, private information, perverse incentives, moderation, and telling you where to cut the graph.
wildetruth.substack.com/p/these-are-...
May 14, 2025 at 10:18 AM
"These Are A Few of My Favorite Things"
That DAGs don't do: feedbacks, bias, private information, perverse incentives, moderation, and telling you where to cut the graph.
wildetruth.substack.com/p/these-are-...
That DAGs don't do: feedbacks, bias, private information, perverse incentives, moderation, and telling you where to cut the graph.
wildetruth.substack.com/p/these-are-...
Well done, youngin. (When *I* was your age, OSF infrastructure to upload all your stuff was not yet online...)
May 9, 2025 at 11:32 AM
Well done, youngin. (When *I* was your age, OSF infrastructure to upload all your stuff was not yet online...)
Look deeply into Bernhard Schölkopf's Table 1 taxonomy of models and tell me if I have to brush up on my 20+ year old college calculus in order to keep DAGging moar better.
arxiv.org/pdf/1911.10500
arxiv.org/pdf/1911.10500
May 9, 2025 at 11:17 AM
Look deeply into Bernhard Schölkopf's Table 1 taxonomy of models and tell me if I have to brush up on my 20+ year old college calculus in order to keep DAGging moar better.
arxiv.org/pdf/1911.10500
arxiv.org/pdf/1911.10500
Vaccines are like drugs? Hit me. Part 1 of my review of Peter Gøtzsche's *Vaccines: Truth, Lies, and Controversy* -- what I learned and loved, and why I'm now raring to get more sticks.
wildetruth.substack.com/p/book-revie...
wildetruth.substack.com/p/book-revie...
April 28, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Vaccines are like drugs? Hit me. Part 1 of my review of Peter Gøtzsche's *Vaccines: Truth, Lies, and Controversy* -- what I learned and loved, and why I'm now raring to get more sticks.
wildetruth.substack.com/p/book-revie...
wildetruth.substack.com/p/book-revie...
Gotta say my favorite part of Brian Deer's *The Doctor Who Fooled the World: Andrew Wakefield's war on vaccines* was reading at the end that Wakefield was shacked up with supermodel Elle MacPherson, Googling it, and discovering that they broke up.
wildetruth.substack.com/p/book-revie...
wildetruth.substack.com/p/book-revie...
April 26, 2025 at 8:30 PM
Gotta say my favorite part of Brian Deer's *The Doctor Who Fooled the World: Andrew Wakefield's war on vaccines* was reading at the end that Wakefield was shacked up with supermodel Elle MacPherson, Googling it, and discovering that they broke up.
wildetruth.substack.com/p/book-revie...
wildetruth.substack.com/p/book-revie...
YES PLEASE (from the peanut gallery where I can't even get the text to display on the meme tonight).
April 24, 2025 at 8:01 PM
YES PLEASE (from the peanut gallery where I can't even get the text to display on the meme tonight).
Fine, upstanding mother to grocery store staff the day before Easter: Excuse me, where can I find eggs & egg dye?
Staff: Eggs are here, but obviously egg dye is at another store.
Chorus: www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEJ9...
Staff: Eggs are here, but obviously egg dye is at another store.
Chorus: www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEJ9...
April 20, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Fine, upstanding mother to grocery store staff the day before Easter: Excuse me, where can I find eggs & egg dye?
Staff: Eggs are here, but obviously egg dye is at another store.
Chorus: www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEJ9...
Staff: Eggs are here, but obviously egg dye is at another store.
Chorus: www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEJ9...
Charlene Chocolate, single mom of two, finishes her 10th 70g bar of 100% dark in a month. The cheapest vendor charges €4.90 euros shipping. How many months' worth should she buy at a time to minimize fees but maximize freshness? At what price point would it be cheaper to get a boyfriend?
April 18, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Charlene Chocolate, single mom of two, finishes her 10th 70g bar of 100% dark in a month. The cheapest vendor charges €4.90 euros shipping. How many months' worth should she buy at a time to minimize fees but maximize freshness? At what price point would it be cheaper to get a boyfriend?
Thanks again. I'll try this next time. I bet it works a lot better than asking it to make this look pretty. ;)
April 17, 2025 at 12:27 PM
Thanks again. I'll try this next time. I bet it works a lot better than asking it to make this look pretty. ;)
What if both screening programs and the science that evaluates them suffer from the same distortions? What if multiverse analysis is just Bayesian sensitivity analysis? What if simpler is better?
wildetruth.substack.com/p/multiverse...
wildetruth.substack.com/p/multiverse...
April 17, 2025 at 12:26 PM
What if both screening programs and the science that evaluates them suffer from the same distortions? What if multiverse analysis is just Bayesian sensitivity analysis? What if simpler is better?
wildetruth.substack.com/p/multiverse...
wildetruth.substack.com/p/multiverse...
How do you draw totalitarianism in a causal graph? You don't, because sequential-feedback continua produce indeterminacy. That limits scientific evidentiary evaluation of security policies. Maybe it IS about balancing liberty and security in context...
wildetruth.substack.com/p/cringe-sec...
wildetruth.substack.com/p/cringe-sec...
April 7, 2025 at 12:51 PM
How do you draw totalitarianism in a causal graph? You don't, because sequential-feedback continua produce indeterminacy. That limits scientific evidentiary evaluation of security policies. Maybe it IS about balancing liberty and security in context...
wildetruth.substack.com/p/cringe-sec...
wildetruth.substack.com/p/cringe-sec...
The four-year-old requested French toast for a special Saturday breakfast "because we are American." His favorite part is the extra cooked egg batter. Calculate the combined retaliatory tariffs on half a piece of French toast and the extra egg batter from a three-piece batch. Answer in dollars.
April 5, 2025 at 9:15 AM
The four-year-old requested French toast for a special Saturday breakfast "because we are American." His favorite part is the extra cooked egg batter. Calculate the combined retaliatory tariffs on half a piece of French toast and the extra egg batter from a three-piece batch. Answer in dollars.
Continued causal diagramming on mass screenings for low-prevalence problems: now with 100% more resource reallocation mechanism!
Updated DAG + DCG.
Because drawing helps us think.
And cost-benefits need all causal paths accounted for.
wildetruth.substack.com/p/resource-r...
Updated DAG + DCG.
Because drawing helps us think.
And cost-benefits need all causal paths accounted for.
wildetruth.substack.com/p/resource-r...
March 29, 2025 at 6:10 AM
Continued causal diagramming on mass screenings for low-prevalence problems: now with 100% more resource reallocation mechanism!
Updated DAG + DCG.
Because drawing helps us think.
And cost-benefits need all causal paths accounted for.
wildetruth.substack.com/p/resource-r...
Updated DAG + DCG.
Because drawing helps us think.
And cost-benefits need all causal paths accounted for.
wildetruth.substack.com/p/resource-r...
Yesterday, I made a whole argument about causal mechanisms in medicine... without drawing the causal diagrams.
Correction: Diagramming requires actual diagramming.
Here's the post, complete with silly monkeys, circling sharks, a meme, & a messy graph!
wildetruth.substack.com/p/correction...
Correction: Diagramming requires actual diagramming.
Here's the post, complete with silly monkeys, circling sharks, a meme, & a messy graph!
wildetruth.substack.com/p/correction...
March 28, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Yesterday, I made a whole argument about causal mechanisms in medicine... without drawing the causal diagrams.
Correction: Diagramming requires actual diagramming.
Here's the post, complete with silly monkeys, circling sharks, a meme, & a messy graph!
wildetruth.substack.com/p/correction...
Correction: Diagramming requires actual diagramming.
Here's the post, complete with silly monkeys, circling sharks, a meme, & a messy graph!
wildetruth.substack.com/p/correction...