Valuations
@valuations.bsky.social
Even if I miss I can’t miss.
https://valuations.substack.com/
https://valuations.substack.com/
I think the survey demonstrates a change in stigma of young women declaring publicly that they don’t want to get married… more than anything else.
November 30, 2025 at 11:19 AM
I think the survey demonstrates a change in stigma of young women declaring publicly that they don’t want to get married… more than anything else.
Who’s holding the bag? Hint: it ain’t Meta.
November 24, 2025 at 12:17 PM
Who’s holding the bag? Hint: it ain’t Meta.
OpenAI may be overvalued but it’s healthy. But was referring to their overlord, Microsoft et al.
November 22, 2025 at 7:02 PM
OpenAI may be overvalued but it’s healthy. But was referring to their overlord, Microsoft et al.
Agreed. Probably layers of leverage in crypto that need to unwind but banks are fine, regulation too tight post GFC to become systemic… as Trump rolls back all the regulations that could change but won’t be overnight.
November 22, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Agreed. Probably layers of leverage in crypto that need to unwind but banks are fine, regulation too tight post GFC to become systemic… as Trump rolls back all the regulations that could change but won’t be overnight.
Hyperscalers just started to lever their balance sheets. Lots of stuff will go to zero when all is said and done but the epicenter of this bubble is healthy companies with real cash flows building a real technology. Hard for me to see a looming crisis or the bubble popping this early on.
November 22, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Hyperscalers just started to lever their balance sheets. Lots of stuff will go to zero when all is said and done but the epicenter of this bubble is healthy companies with real cash flows building a real technology. Hard for me to see a looming crisis or the bubble popping this early on.
Shitco liquidity tsunami maybe coming faster than I expected.
November 9, 2025 at 1:25 PM
Shitco liquidity tsunami maybe coming faster than I expected.
Lego Star Wars is on right now as I type this lol. I do appreciate that Netflix has Mrs Rachel, but it’s 90% Disney in my house, I’ve lost all control.
October 26, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Lego Star Wars is on right now as I type this lol. I do appreciate that Netflix has Mrs Rachel, but it’s 90% Disney in my house, I’ve lost all control.
Parks did like $9B in revenue up 10% and $2.5B in EBIT in Q3 but they have trouble monetizing their IP?
October 26, 2025 at 11:57 AM
Parks did like $9B in revenue up 10% and $2.5B in EBIT in Q3 but they have trouble monetizing their IP?
Gold parabolic
Shitco blow off top
KRE and Alts dumping
VIX ripping despite TACO and strong bank earnings
They should be scared (but also think it’s likely a flawed survey).
Shitco blow off top
KRE and Alts dumping
VIX ripping despite TACO and strong bank earnings
They should be scared (but also think it’s likely a flawed survey).
October 17, 2025 at 9:34 AM
Gold parabolic
Shitco blow off top
KRE and Alts dumping
VIX ripping despite TACO and strong bank earnings
They should be scared (but also think it’s likely a flawed survey).
Shitco blow off top
KRE and Alts dumping
VIX ripping despite TACO and strong bank earnings
They should be scared (but also think it’s likely a flawed survey).
Twitter: get force fed content from literal nazis
Bluesky: get called a Nazi for innocuous statements.
Bluesky: get called a Nazi for innocuous statements.
June 22, 2025 at 11:57 AM
Twitter: get force fed content from literal nazis
Bluesky: get called a Nazi for innocuous statements.
Bluesky: get called a Nazi for innocuous statements.
I figured he just wanted a distraction to take eyeballs away from the Bloomberg FSD piece.
June 5, 2025 at 11:28 AM
I figured he just wanted a distraction to take eyeballs away from the Bloomberg FSD piece.
For me at least it’s just network effect. Even as the experience has gotten much worse I can’t seem to recreate the value anywhere else.
May 24, 2025 at 9:07 AM
For me at least it’s just network effect. Even as the experience has gotten much worse I can’t seem to recreate the value anywhere else.
Restaurants have been resilient??
March 30, 2025 at 10:55 PM
Restaurants have been resilient??
FWIW I think cocoa prices have peaked. Climate induced shortage was squeezed by speculators. Still some structural issues and underinvestment by farmers will take years to normalize, but like all commodities the cure for higher prices is higher prices. Input costs will become a tailwind.
February 9, 2025 at 11:03 AM
FWIW I think cocoa prices have peaked. Climate induced shortage was squeezed by speculators. Still some structural issues and underinvestment by farmers will take years to normalize, but like all commodities the cure for higher prices is higher prices. Input costs will become a tailwind.
Why does the real economy need lower interest rates?
December 25, 2024 at 1:09 AM
Why does the real economy need lower interest rates?
Or in the case of HSY, again high quality brand and product and we know commodity squeeze will unwind and probably lead to a glut then suddenly input costs are a tailwind, so wait until it turns and maybe you’re too late?
December 23, 2024 at 11:27 PM
Or in the case of HSY, again high quality brand and product and we know commodity squeeze will unwind and probably lead to a glut then suddenly input costs are a tailwind, so wait until it turns and maybe you’re too late?
Feel like it depends on the situation, no? Brand value hasn’t been tarnished, plug in 4-5% growth and 13-14% operating margin and it’s not a bad price knowing buyers will show up and rerate at the first sing of improvement based on historic multiples that were too high to begin with.
December 23, 2024 at 11:25 PM
Feel like it depends on the situation, no? Brand value hasn’t been tarnished, plug in 4-5% growth and 13-14% operating margin and it’s not a bad price knowing buyers will show up and rerate at the first sing of improvement based on historic multiples that were too high to begin with.
But Musk is no dummy, and may adjust course to cater to Trump’s ego. Also substantial risk that some shitco OEM will license FSD for the halo effect. TSLA would pump another 30-50% in a week on that news.
December 23, 2024 at 11:48 AM
But Musk is no dummy, and may adjust course to cater to Trump’s ego. Also substantial risk that some shitco OEM will license FSD for the halo effect. TSLA would pump another 30-50% in a week on that news.