Truth Warrior
@truthwarrior2.bsky.social
Fact-based, simple research on military, international relations, economic and power-politics topics. I try to identify patterns.
Pinned
1/2 In terms of Russia's use of ground equipment, moving forward, we can probably expect to see:
1. Tanks (if at all used): T-62 and T-72
2. IFVs: BMP-1/2, BMP-3
3. APCs: MT-LB
4. SPGs: 2S3 and 2S19
5. Towed arty: D-30, possibly D-20
1. Tanks (if at all used): T-62 and T-72
2. IFVs: BMP-1/2, BMP-3
3. APCs: MT-LB
4. SPGs: 2S3 and 2S19
5. Towed arty: D-30, possibly D-20
Russian demands will continue to be punitive on Ukraine as long as either (1) Russia retains an advantage in missiles and, more importantly, troops over Ukraine or (2) Russia isn't crippled economically/financially.
Neither of these circumstances is likely to change any time soon.
Neither of these circumstances is likely to change any time soon.
November 27, 2025 at 10:29 PM
Russian demands will continue to be punitive on Ukraine as long as either (1) Russia retains an advantage in missiles and, more importantly, troops over Ukraine or (2) Russia isn't crippled economically/financially.
Neither of these circumstances is likely to change any time soon.
Neither of these circumstances is likely to change any time soon.
904th - 1.5m pic of 27 Aug 2025 (left) and 20 Aug 2025 (right). There are around 50 of what I’m sure are tanks, but the section to the left there - might be tanks, or it might be something else.
Also, moral of the story is: don’t rely on low-res imagery.
Also, moral of the story is: don’t rely on low-res imagery.
August 30, 2025 at 3:18 AM
904th - 1.5m pic of 27 Aug 2025 (left) and 20 Aug 2025 (right). There are around 50 of what I’m sure are tanks, but the section to the left there - might be tanks, or it might be something else.
Also, moral of the story is: don’t rely on low-res imagery.
Also, moral of the story is: don’t rely on low-res imagery.
1/3 Alright, I'm now trying to keep an eye on UVZ - a BTRZ that's seemingly not been really looked at this war. 30cm pic of 12 Aug 2025.
August 29, 2025 at 10:40 AM
1/3 Alright, I'm now trying to keep an eye on UVZ - a BTRZ that's seemingly not been really looked at this war. 30cm pic of 12 Aug 2025.
1/2 Two points about India’s Russian oil imports.
First, this. You do the maths.
First, this. You do the maths.
August 27, 2025 at 11:56 PM
1/2 Two points about India’s Russian oil imports.
First, this. You do the maths.
First, this. You do the maths.
Sorry, people, 904th goes back to 'Likely decent' - Jompy has a higher-res pic of the 17th of August that we cannot share, but suffice it to say, it's good quality tanks, around 50 from what I saw.
August 18, 2025 at 7:24 AM
Sorry, people, 904th goes back to 'Likely decent' - Jompy has a higher-res pic of the 17th of August that we cannot share, but suffice it to say, it's good quality tanks, around 50 from what I saw.
Quick Russian tank storage base and BTRZ status report 3.0
Junk and/or empty:
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
6018th
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
904th
Mainly junk and/or possibly empty by now:
61st BTRZ
769th
Likely decent:
UVZ (visible hulls)
Junk and/or empty:
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
6018th
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
904th
Mainly junk and/or possibly empty by now:
61st BTRZ
769th
Likely decent:
UVZ (visible hulls)
August 17, 2025 at 6:34 AM
Quick Russian tank storage base and BTRZ status report 3.0
Junk and/or empty:
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
6018th
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
904th
Mainly junk and/or possibly empty by now:
61st BTRZ
769th
Likely decent:
UVZ (visible hulls)
Junk and/or empty:
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
6018th
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
904th
Mainly junk and/or possibly empty by now:
61st BTRZ
769th
Likely decent:
UVZ (visible hulls)
904th low-res imagery of 12 Aug 2025 (with cloud & shadow) vs 8 July 2025 + medium-res of 6 July 2025 for comparison. I am not seeing any tanks here anymore, and the base itself is looking quite a bit thinner than before.
August 17, 2025 at 2:43 AM
904th low-res imagery of 12 Aug 2025 (with cloud & shadow) vs 8 July 2025 + medium-res of 6 July 2025 for comparison. I am not seeing any tanks here anymore, and the base itself is looking quite a bit thinner than before.
Quick Russian tank storage base and BTRZ status report 2.0
Junk and/or empty:
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
6018th
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
Mainly junk:
61st BTRZ
769th
Likely decent:
904th
UVZ (visible hulls)
Junk and/or empty:
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
6018th
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
Mainly junk:
61st BTRZ
769th
Likely decent:
904th
UVZ (visible hulls)
August 16, 2025 at 10:44 AM
Quick Russian tank storage base and BTRZ status report 2.0
Junk and/or empty:
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
6018th
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
Mainly junk:
61st BTRZ
769th
Likely decent:
904th
UVZ (visible hulls)
Junk and/or empty:
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
6018th
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
Mainly junk:
61st BTRZ
769th
Likely decent:
904th
UVZ (visible hulls)
Rubtsovskiy BTRZ 1.5m image of 28 Jul 2025. Looks like the BMPs are still there, little change vs GE of 23 May 2025.
August 16, 2025 at 10:19 AM
Rubtsovskiy BTRZ 1.5m image of 28 Jul 2025. Looks like the BMPs are still there, little change vs GE of 23 May 2025.
What did Russian tank storage bases say when offered to join the Special Military Operation?
No tanks.
😂
No tanks.
😂
August 16, 2025 at 10:16 AM
What did Russian tank storage bases say when offered to join the Special Military Operation?
No tanks.
😂
No tanks.
😂
769th 1.5m image of 16 July 2025. As of this date, there is seemingly one row of decent-ish looking T-62s left in the SW section. As I've previously speculated, by now (a month later) it's likely even they are gone. This one is a junker.
August 16, 2025 at 10:11 AM
769th 1.5m image of 16 July 2025. As of this date, there is seemingly one row of decent-ish looking T-62s left in the SW section. As I've previously speculated, by now (a month later) it's likely even they are gone. This one is a junker.
6018th 1.5m image of 4 Aug 2025. No tanks, likely junk BMPs, some trucks (as far as I can see). I'd say that this base is kaput.
August 16, 2025 at 9:40 AM
6018th 1.5m image of 4 Aug 2025. No tanks, likely junk BMPs, some trucks (as far as I can see). I'd say that this base is kaput.
On second thought, let's move 769th over to 'Mainly junk' for consistency.
August 15, 2025 at 5:18 AM
On second thought, let's move 769th over to 'Mainly junk' for consistency.
Quick Russian tank storage base and BTRZ status report (my personal assessment):
Junk and/or empty:
769th
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
Mainly junk:
61st BTRZ
Likely decent:
904th
UVZ (visible hulls)
Unknown:
6018th (likely empty)
Junk and/or empty:
769th
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
Mainly junk:
61st BTRZ
Likely decent:
904th
UVZ (visible hulls)
Unknown:
6018th (likely empty)
August 15, 2025 at 12:56 AM
Quick Russian tank storage base and BTRZ status report (my personal assessment):
Junk and/or empty:
769th
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
Mainly junk:
61st BTRZ
Likely decent:
904th
UVZ (visible hulls)
Unknown:
6018th (likely empty)
Junk and/or empty:
769th
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
111th
2544th
22nd
Omsktransmash (visible hulls)
103rd BTRZ
Mainly junk:
61st BTRZ
Likely decent:
904th
UVZ (visible hulls)
Unknown:
6018th (likely empty)
Omsktransmash 1.5m image of 10 July 2025. Not much change in the yards since May 2025. I consider the visible hulls at this BTRZ junk.
August 15, 2025 at 12:45 AM
Omsktransmash 1.5m image of 10 July 2025. Not much change in the yards since May 2025. I consider the visible hulls at this BTRZ junk.
103rd BTRZ 50cm image of 31 July 2025. Not much left here and no replenishment. Jompy has ID'd T-62s, BRDM-2s and BTR-70s here.
August 15, 2025 at 12:44 AM
103rd BTRZ 50cm image of 31 July 2025. Not much left here and no replenishment. Jompy has ID'd T-62s, BRDM-2s and BTR-70s here.
7049th 50cm image of 24 Jul 2025. Approx 15 2S3s and 21 2S19s. I note that this is an artillery range and probably a school/training facility.
August 15, 2025 at 12:41 AM
7049th 50cm image of 24 Jul 2025. Approx 15 2S3s and 21 2S19s. I note that this is an artillery range and probably a school/training facility.
1/2 I don’t normally like to comment on matters like negotiations (simply because nothing can really be verified and measured), but - assuming reports of Russia’s current proposal are true - I find it puzzling nobody is recognising that Russia’s ceasefire demands have come down a few notches.
August 11, 2025 at 12:39 AM
1/2 I don’t normally like to comment on matters like negotiations (simply because nothing can really be verified and measured), but - assuming reports of Russia’s current proposal are true - I find it puzzling nobody is recognising that Russia’s ceasefire demands have come down a few notches.
Regarding UVZ, at this point, it's hard to tell with certainty what is happening with these tanks. We will need to wait and see what movement happens in the future.
I do believe their quality is quite poor, though, so I don't think they're ready to be sent off.
I do believe their quality is quite poor, though, so I don't think they're ready to be sent off.
August 10, 2025 at 11:10 PM
Regarding UVZ, at this point, it's hard to tell with certainty what is happening with these tanks. We will need to wait and see what movement happens in the future.
I do believe their quality is quite poor, though, so I don't think they're ready to be sent off.
I do believe their quality is quite poor, though, so I don't think they're ready to be sent off.
UVZ 50cm imagery of 1 Oct 2024.
August 10, 2025 at 10:59 PM
UVZ 50cm imagery of 1 Oct 2024.
UVZ 50cm imagery of 20 Apr 2024.
August 10, 2025 at 10:59 PM
UVZ 50cm imagery of 20 Apr 2024.
UVZ 50cm imagery of 29 May 2025.
August 10, 2025 at 10:58 PM
UVZ 50cm imagery of 29 May 2025.
I'm awaiting UVZ imagery of April 2024 and October 2024. Why? I'm wanting to see the movement of those ~140 tanks kept there as of July 2025. Methinks they've been there a while...
This could turn out the same way as Omsktransmash with all the unusable T-80 hulls strewn about.
Stand by.
This could turn out the same way as Omsktransmash with all the unusable T-80 hulls strewn about.
Stand by.
August 10, 2025 at 9:08 AM
I'm awaiting UVZ imagery of April 2024 and October 2024. Why? I'm wanting to see the movement of those ~140 tanks kept there as of July 2025. Methinks they've been there a while...
This could turn out the same way as Omsktransmash with all the unusable T-80 hulls strewn about.
Stand by.
This could turn out the same way as Omsktransmash with all the unusable T-80 hulls strewn about.
Stand by.
There are also these ~30 here - mostly T-90M and T-72, but they're in even worse shape.
August 9, 2025 at 11:27 PM
There are also these ~30 here - mostly T-90M and T-72, but they're in even worse shape.
1/2 Jompy made a post about UVZ containing a bunch of tanks. I've counted a total of 114. Initially, I didn't ID the T-90Ms correctly - there are about 53 of them here, the rest is T-62s and T-72s. The condition many are in isn't great, so I'd guess these are here for repairs.
August 9, 2025 at 11:22 PM
1/2 Jompy made a post about UVZ containing a bunch of tanks. I've counted a total of 114. Initially, I didn't ID the T-90Ms correctly - there are about 53 of them here, the rest is T-62s and T-72s. The condition many are in isn't great, so I'd guess these are here for repairs.