Trickss
@trickss.bsky.social
Regulatory economics & minibeast-wrangling. The dog and allotment get what's left
Reflections on the Water White Paper (1/x): Overall sensible approach rejecting a lot of the madder IWC ideas (e.g CMA sets WACC for all regulators). A short document (52 pages) with much detail left unclarified. Clearly very worried about failing to attract required investment.
January 21, 2026 at 11:13 PM
Reflections on the Water White Paper (1/x): Overall sensible approach rejecting a lot of the madder IWC ideas (e.g CMA sets WACC for all regulators). A short document (52 pages) with much detail left unclarified. Clearly very worried about failing to attract required investment.
Wrote to my MP about why the govt continues to use X despite their tolerance of racist abuse and the subversive comments of Musk. Response (A. Dodds) kind of hitting right notes, but very reluctant to cite X as the problem. With the deepfakes, CSA and absolutely overt racism, it felt a bit weak...
January 10, 2026 at 6:59 AM
Wrote to my MP about why the govt continues to use X despite their tolerance of racist abuse and the subversive comments of Musk. Response (A. Dodds) kind of hitting right notes, but very reluctant to cite X as the problem. With the deepfakes, CSA and absolutely overt racism, it felt a bit weak...
Riio-3 final determinations dropped yesterday. 5.7% cost of equity vs CMA's (draft) 5.9%. Very derisked gas controls, very wide risk leccy transmission. Have Ofgem called the peak for the investor WACC rally caused by the post '22 interest rate surge?
December 5, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Riio-3 final determinations dropped yesterday. 5.7% cost of equity vs CMA's (draft) 5.9%. Very derisked gas controls, very wide risk leccy transmission. Have Ofgem called the peak for the investor WACC rally caused by the post '22 interest rate surge?
Increasingly worried the Govt's 10 year infra plan has been captured by private company talking points: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6853c5... (THREAD:)
November 17, 2025 at 10:08 PM
Increasingly worried the Govt's 10 year infra plan has been captured by private company talking points: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6853c5... (THREAD:)
Please, Sir- could we have left wing politicians who are a bit less shit than this? www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
UK homelessness minister resigns after tenant eviction claims
Rushanara Ali was accused of hypocrisy after claims she removed tenants before rent rise of almost £700 a month
www.theguardian.com
August 7, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Please, Sir- could we have left wing politicians who are a bit less shit than this? www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Cunliffe has surfaced a lot of arguments that we should just nationalise the whole sector. I argue Labour's £100bn cost estimate is nonsense, but it is still a risky (and in my view, bad) idea. (1/n)
July 23, 2025 at 7:33 AM
Cunliffe has surfaced a lot of arguments that we should just nationalise the whole sector. I argue Labour's £100bn cost estimate is nonsense, but it is still a risky (and in my view, bad) idea. (1/n)
While respecting the magnitude of the task and considerable time pressure placed on Cunliffe, it is clear that large parts of it (especially on returns) are regurgitated investor/Helm talking points. "We were told X - our solution is Y"... scant evidence of attempts to verify or contextualise X.
July 22, 2025 at 5:13 AM
While respecting the magnitude of the task and considerable time pressure placed on Cunliffe, it is clear that large parts of it (especially on returns) are regurgitated investor/Helm talking points. "We were told X - our solution is Y"... scant evidence of attempts to verify or contextualise X.
Cunliffe final report initial thoughts:) (1/)
- New super regulator subsuming Ofwat, DWI, and water bits of EA seems sensible. I agree that Ofwat/EA relationship has been adversarial and a common hymnsheet would be helpful.
- New super regulator subsuming Ofwat, DWI, and water bits of EA seems sensible. I agree that Ofwat/EA relationship has been adversarial and a common hymnsheet would be helpful.
July 21, 2025 at 9:47 PM
Cunliffe final report initial thoughts:) (1/)
- New super regulator subsuming Ofwat, DWI, and water bits of EA seems sensible. I agree that Ofwat/EA relationship has been adversarial and a common hymnsheet would be helpful.
- New super regulator subsuming Ofwat, DWI, and water bits of EA seems sensible. I agree that Ofwat/EA relationship has been adversarial and a common hymnsheet would be helpful.
This is the key chart from the Cunliffe Review provisional findings. Mahoosive slug of spending driven by govt environmental priorities for 2025-30. Maybe overdue, but the lack of glide path is going to challenge financing and deliverability.
June 10, 2025 at 9:56 AM
This is the key chart from the Cunliffe Review provisional findings. Mahoosive slug of spending driven by govt environmental priorities for 2025-30. Maybe overdue, but the lack of glide path is going to challenge financing and deliverability.
Agree the safe haircut is what the market is pricing (30%). But an unknown is what happens to pricing of sector new debt, which is likely to need to be substantial over next 5 years (c.£30bn). Weaker players (e.g SRN, SEW) may also struggle to access readonably priced finance. tinyurl.com/65njsypx
Thames Water’s creditors are being too greedy | Nils Pratley
If group of lenders has any prospect of getting its proposal to fly, some of its big numbers will have to look very different
www.theguardian.com
June 10, 2025 at 6:06 AM
Agree the safe haircut is what the market is pricing (30%). But an unknown is what happens to pricing of sector new debt, which is likely to need to be substantial over next 5 years (c.£30bn). Weaker players (e.g SRN, SEW) may also struggle to access readonably priced finance. tinyurl.com/65njsypx
Really sound point.
The (macroeconomic) point of tax rises isn't to raise money; it's to release real resources for public services etc. Tax rises only do this if they curb consumption, not if they merely reduce savings. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Leaked memo reveals Angela Rayner called for tax rises
The deputy prime minister's department sent the note before the Spring Statement.
www.bbc.co.uk
May 21, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Really sound point.
In the UK we need low skilled and high skilled migration (but ugh at both terms because). Sectors like social care rely on migration and UK workers are not able/willing to backfill. Though good, our unis cannot train every specialist demanded by industry...
May 11, 2025 at 9:19 PM
In the UK we need low skilled and high skilled migration (but ugh at both terms because). Sectors like social care rely on migration and UK workers are not able/willing to backfill. Though good, our unis cannot train every specialist demanded by industry...
In the UK we need low skilled and high skilled migration (but ugh at both terms because). Sectors like social care rely on migration and UK workers are not able/willing to backfill. Though good, our unis cannot train every specialist demanded by industry...
May 11, 2025 at 9:06 PM
In the UK we need low skilled and high skilled migration (but ugh at both terms because). Sectors like social care rely on migration and UK workers are not able/willing to backfill. Though good, our unis cannot train every specialist demanded by industry...
The CMA appeals process in water is so broken. Just limitless opportunities for appellants to load on more cherry picked issues that emerge over time and that make the case for more money (never less).
May 8, 2025 at 8:30 PM
The CMA appeals process in water is so broken. Just limitless opportunities for appellants to load on more cherry picked issues that emerge over time and that make the case for more money (never less).
For a country that has two parties who basically love markets, the UK sure does get mugged by markets a lot. Thinking about energy prices set by gas despite ££ spent on renewables, grotesquely expensive public capex costs, failed privatisations (e.g. probation). France somehow does much better...
April 24, 2025 at 6:29 AM
For a country that has two parties who basically love markets, the UK sure does get mugged by markets a lot. Thinking about energy prices set by gas despite ££ spent on renewables, grotesquely expensive public capex costs, failed privatisations (e.g. probation). France somehow does much better...
Interesting and as far as I can tell, completely under the media radar judicial review intervention: caselaw.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ewhc/admin/2... SSEN-T as an intervenor in WWU vs CMA - very long running JR of the 2021 CMA RIIO-2 redetermination.
Wales & West Utilities Limited v Competition and Markets Authority -
Find Case Law
- The National Archives
caselaw.nationalarchives.gov.uk
April 20, 2025 at 7:33 AM
Interesting and as far as I can tell, completely under the media radar judicial review intervention: caselaw.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ewhc/admin/2... SSEN-T as an intervenor in WWU vs CMA - very long running JR of the 2021 CMA RIIO-2 redetermination.
Inhuman scum.
In normal times this would trigger global outrage.
These are not normal times.
These are not normal times.
Israel killed 15 Palestinian paramedics and rescue workers one by one, says UN
Workers on a mission to help colleagues were buried in mass grave in southern Gaza, says humanitarian office
www.theguardian.com
April 1, 2025 at 7:17 AM
Inhuman scum.
So obvious the main thing going through Trump's mind and angering him at that 3 way summit with Zelensky and Vance was: "This sonofabitch is stopping me from getting my Novel Peace Prize!"
March 1, 2025 at 6:19 AM
So obvious the main thing going through Trump's mind and angering him at that 3 way summit with Zelensky and Vance was: "This sonofabitch is stopping me from getting my Novel Peace Prize!"
Cunliffe (Water) Review call for evidence published. 293 pages (oof!).
www.gov.uk/government/c... SoS Steve Reed has made it clear he is totally leaning on the review to provide the answer on how to fix water...
www.gov.uk/government/c... SoS Steve Reed has made it clear he is totally leaning on the review to provide the answer on how to fix water...
Independent Commission for Water – call for evidence
The Independent Water Commission call for evidence is seeking views in relation to the water sector in England and Wales.
www.gov.uk
February 28, 2025 at 11:13 AM
Cunliffe (Water) Review call for evidence published. 293 pages (oof!).
www.gov.uk/government/c... SoS Steve Reed has made it clear he is totally leaning on the review to provide the answer on how to fix water...
www.gov.uk/government/c... SoS Steve Reed has made it clear he is totally leaning on the review to provide the answer on how to fix water...
Why do people refer to Putin as President? Surely it would be more accurate and helpful to describe him as 'Czar Putin'...
February 21, 2025 at 11:55 AM
Why do people refer to Putin as President? Surely it would be more accurate and helpful to describe him as 'Czar Putin'...
I wonder how many of the 6 water CMA appellants would have knuckled under if we hadn't had that c.60bp increase in the 20y gilts rate between now and last September (or if Ofwat had indexed the CoE)
February 19, 2025 at 10:04 AM
I wonder how many of the 6 water CMA appellants would have knuckled under if we hadn't had that c.60bp increase in the 20y gilts rate between now and last September (or if Ofwat had indexed the CoE)
A record 6 water firms have appealed their pr24 determination:
(Anglian, Northumbrian, Thames, South East, Southern, Wessex).
(Anglian, Northumbrian, Thames, South East, Southern, Wessex).
February 19, 2025 at 12:08 AM
A record 6 water firms have appealed their pr24 determination:
(Anglian, Northumbrian, Thames, South East, Southern, Wessex).
(Anglian, Northumbrian, Thames, South East, Southern, Wessex).
Thames Water has today become the first company to appeal its PR24 settlement, citing 3 asks:
1) A regulatory settlenent that reflects the circumstances of TMS' service area.
2) Targets that are challenging but achievable
3) An appropriate balance of risk and return
1) A regulatory settlenent that reflects the circumstances of TMS' service area.
2) Targets that are challenging but achievable
3) An appropriate balance of risk and return
February 14, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Thames Water has today become the first company to appeal its PR24 settlement, citing 3 asks:
1) A regulatory settlenent that reflects the circumstances of TMS' service area.
2) Targets that are challenging but achievable
3) An appropriate balance of risk and return
1) A regulatory settlenent that reflects the circumstances of TMS' service area.
2) Targets that are challenging but achievable
3) An appropriate balance of risk and return
The US is destroying its alliances and reputation in real time. It's very sad and bemusing to see. What is going to be left after 4 more years of this?
February 8, 2025 at 7:35 AM
The US is destroying its alliances and reputation in real time. It's very sad and bemusing to see. What is going to be left after 4 more years of this?
Thames Water apparently spending £15m per month on financial advice... Seems to me like a special administration would end this death by a thousand cuts sooner. Customers should not be paying for a legal battle between bondholders.
February 4, 2025 at 7:21 AM
Thames Water apparently spending £15m per month on financial advice... Seems to me like a special administration would end this death by a thousand cuts sooner. Customers should not be paying for a legal battle between bondholders.