possibly. I don't know the future, but I do think that some of these companies will go down spectacularly. OpenAI probably. I don't see google or microsoft going down. The numbers are quite unique historically.

By Michael Cembalest, the Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset & Wealth Management. source:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YMK...

yes. but it was smooth and I wasn't sure originally.

my favorite is your butt-to-brain axis. Sadly, it's an under-appreciated concept by the establishment.

#AI
#criticality
#transition
#illusion
#bias

__
I think this is perfect metaphor for the irrational exuberance of people yelling from mountain tops - buy more NVIDIA shares, it's a revolution!!!

but of course on exponential curves every point is a critical point. It's going to look like that no matter where you are, so you might overestimate being at the transition of something fundamental, like the appearance of conscious machines"

"When you are on an exponential curve, it's very hard to project where things are going to go. The future looks impossibly steep in front of you and irrelevantly flat behind you, so it's tempting to think you are at a critical point,

www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSYO...

as it's just someone's opinion on the public internet and not peer-reviewed primary evidence (which is also not a 100%).

This is a significant problem. Imagine what it looked like when GPT responded with I am 27% sure that the answer to your question is ABC.

This creates an illusion. This answer is contextualized, sources are cited, it's delivered in an articulate way - and no one is telling you that the main source of the data is not reputable,

- a 95% confidence in ABC. Sometimes it's 15%, sometimes 50% - level of chance. None of that is present in LLM answers.

You. Just. Get. An. Answer.