Todd Friesen
@toddfriesen.bsky.social
Disability Actuary; Health; Science; Climate Change; Economics; Boston Marathon Qualifier; Winnipegger
Pacing #ManitobaMarathon this year with the 3:50 crew! 1,250 full marathon racers registered this year up 20% from last year's sell out! Amazing! Who's joining me?
May 29, 2025 at 2:16 AM
Pacing #ManitobaMarathon this year with the 3:50 crew! 1,250 full marathon racers registered this year up 20% from last year's sell out! Amazing! Who's joining me?
Final Update:
2025 Federal Election Seat Projection.
What do you think will happen tonight?
2025 Federal Election Seat Projection.
What do you think will happen tonight?
April 28, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Final Update:
2025 Federal Election Seat Projection.
What do you think will happen tonight?
2025 Federal Election Seat Projection.
What do you think will happen tonight?
New Canada seat projection model.
200 simulations, LPC majority in all of these (188-215).
200 simulations, LPC majority in all of these (188-215).
April 18, 2025 at 8:45 PM
New Canada seat projection model.
200 simulations, LPC majority in all of these (188-215).
200 simulations, LPC majority in all of these (188-215).
2025 Canada Election projection.
Two day update (last posted on Threads) sees LPC down 2 seats (MB/BC), NDP up 1 (MB) and CPC up 1 (BC). No clear trend in polling over the last week.
Two day update (last posted on Threads) sees LPC down 2 seats (MB/BC), NDP up 1 (MB) and CPC up 1 (BC). No clear trend in polling over the last week.
April 10, 2025 at 4:05 PM
2025 Canada Election projection.
Two day update (last posted on Threads) sees LPC down 2 seats (MB/BC), NDP up 1 (MB) and CPC up 1 (BC). No clear trend in polling over the last week.
Two day update (last posted on Threads) sees LPC down 2 seats (MB/BC), NDP up 1 (MB) and CPC up 1 (BC). No clear trend in polling over the last week.
Not a bad day's work for Josh, bringing home the high school championship 🏆 and team banner in chess!
April 1, 2025 at 10:37 PM
Not a bad day's work for Josh, bringing home the high school championship 🏆 and team banner in chess!
Quick start for the Jets!
March 29, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Quick start for the Jets!
With NDP/BQ down in the polls, a majority government looks increasingly likely. Just a 3% window for a minority government. LPC needs about 37-38% for a majority, and can win a majority while losing the popular vote by a significant margin.
March 25, 2025 at 2:05 PM
With NDP/BQ down in the polls, a majority government looks increasingly likely. Just a 3% window for a minority government. LPC needs about 37-38% for a majority, and can win a majority while losing the popular vote by a significant margin.
CPC benefits more when NDP/BQ rises, and LPC benefits more when these parties drop. LPC thresholds are more robust.
Note, these scenarios define where NDP/BQ move compared to current polling. Everything else (e.g. Green/PPC/Other) is held constant.
Note, these scenarios define where NDP/BQ move compared to current polling. Everything else (e.g. Green/PPC/Other) is held constant.
March 24, 2025 at 2:13 PM
CPC benefits more when NDP/BQ rises, and LPC benefits more when these parties drop. LPC thresholds are more robust.
Note, these scenarios define where NDP/BQ move compared to current polling. Everything else (e.g. Green/PPC/Other) is held constant.
Note, these scenarios define where NDP/BQ move compared to current polling. Everything else (e.g. Green/PPC/Other) is held constant.
#CanadaElection simulations based on 338.
LPC needs ~37% for a majority. They get more seat efficiency if BQ slides. CPC needs ~43% for majority.
The difference between a majority and a tie is if 2% of voters switch from LPC to CPC. CPC majority if 4% of voters of LPC switch to LPC.
LPC needs ~37% for a majority. They get more seat efficiency if BQ slides. CPC needs ~43% for majority.
The difference between a majority and a tie is if 2% of voters switch from LPC to CPC. CPC majority if 4% of voters of LPC switch to LPC.
March 24, 2025 at 2:13 PM
#CanadaElection simulations based on 338.
LPC needs ~37% for a majority. They get more seat efficiency if BQ slides. CPC needs ~43% for majority.
The difference between a majority and a tie is if 2% of voters switch from LPC to CPC. CPC majority if 4% of voters of LPC switch to LPC.
LPC needs ~37% for a majority. They get more seat efficiency if BQ slides. CPC needs ~43% for majority.
The difference between a majority and a tie is if 2% of voters switch from LPC to CPC. CPC majority if 4% of voters of LPC switch to LPC.
Given current polling and a 3.3% shift from LPC to CPC, still an LPC majority even if CPC is up 2.7% in popular vote.
(Note my model methodology uses a ratio method for each riding from 2021 results. It's a pretty basic model, but I think the methodology is pretty sound).
(Note my model methodology uses a ratio method for each riding from 2021 results. It's a pretty basic model, but I think the methodology is pretty sound).
March 20, 2025 at 5:34 PM
Given current polling and a 3.3% shift from LPC to CPC, still an LPC majority even if CPC is up 2.7% in popular vote.
(Note my model methodology uses a ratio method for each riding from 2021 results. It's a pretty basic model, but I think the methodology is pretty sound).
(Note my model methodology uses a ratio method for each riding from 2021 results. It's a pretty basic model, but I think the methodology is pretty sound).
Enjoying a Steve Bell concert with Mike Janzen. Nice mix of gospel and jazz. Steve is such an outstanding narrator and supporter of marginalized people groups. I can't stomach the alignment of Christian artists and the political far right. Bell and Janzen are very authentic and speak to my soul.
November 16, 2024 at 2:59 AM
Enjoying a Steve Bell concert with Mike Janzen. Nice mix of gospel and jazz. Steve is such an outstanding narrator and supporter of marginalized people groups. I can't stomach the alignment of Christian artists and the political far right. Bell and Janzen are very authentic and speak to my soul.
Adding my own graphic below for Canada. Younger age excess mortality is larger through the pandemic (2020-23), even though Covid-caused mortality skewed older.
(Note, 2012-2019 is detrended, and excess is showing how much worse that negative trend is getting; Data Source: Statistics Canada).
(Note, 2012-2019 is detrended, and excess is showing how much worse that negative trend is getting; Data Source: Statistics Canada).
November 14, 2024 at 6:32 PM
Adding my own graphic below for Canada. Younger age excess mortality is larger through the pandemic (2020-23), even though Covid-caused mortality skewed older.
(Note, 2012-2019 is detrended, and excess is showing how much worse that negative trend is getting; Data Source: Statistics Canada).
(Note, 2012-2019 is detrended, and excess is showing how much worse that negative trend is getting; Data Source: Statistics Canada).
Wife says I needed to move the treadmill out of the living room. Basement ceiling not tall enough so we compromised by sawing a hole in the ceiling! On a short hiatus to heal a minor toe injury but getting close to 3000km this year. Need to get ready for Chicago 2025 and Boston 2026 marathons!
November 9, 2024 at 5:17 AM
Wife says I needed to move the treadmill out of the living room. Basement ceiling not tall enough so we compromised by sawing a hole in the ceiling! On a short hiatus to heal a minor toe injury but getting close to 3000km this year. Need to get ready for Chicago 2025 and Boston 2026 marathons!
Added 4 new half/full marathon medals in 2023 (left side). All PB's!
WPS: 1:43:03
Rotary: 1:37:39
WFPS: 1:33:26
Twin Cities (virtual due to live event heat cancelation): 3:46:04
Previous bests:
Full: 4:01:31 2019 MB Marathon
Half: 1:44:45 2022 WFPS
WPS: 1:43:03
Rotary: 1:37:39
WFPS: 1:33:26
Twin Cities (virtual due to live event heat cancelation): 3:46:04
Previous bests:
Full: 4:01:31 2019 MB Marathon
Half: 1:44:45 2022 WFPS
December 31, 2023 at 12:45 AM
Added 4 new half/full marathon medals in 2023 (left side). All PB's!
WPS: 1:43:03
Rotary: 1:37:39
WFPS: 1:33:26
Twin Cities (virtual due to live event heat cancelation): 3:46:04
Previous bests:
Full: 4:01:31 2019 MB Marathon
Half: 1:44:45 2022 WFPS
WPS: 1:43:03
Rotary: 1:37:39
WFPS: 1:33:26
Twin Cities (virtual due to live event heat cancelation): 3:46:04
Previous bests:
Full: 4:01:31 2019 MB Marathon
Half: 1:44:45 2022 WFPS