Tim
@timpaul.bsky.social
Consultant; organizations, culture, anthropology, sociology; Australia
It's happening all around the world. The younger generation are priced out of owning a home because residential housing has been transformed into yet another investment commodity for rich punters
Its time to return housing back to homes for young families again
www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-i...
Its time to return housing back to homes for young families again
www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-i...
It’s still not OK boomer: younger Americans are flailing – and mad as hell | J Oliver Conroy
For young Americans, not being able to buy a house is more than a sob story. It’s the symbol of a broken social contract and a generational betrayal
www.theguardian.com
December 8, 2025 at 11:54 PM
It's happening all around the world. The younger generation are priced out of owning a home because residential housing has been transformed into yet another investment commodity for rich punters
Its time to return housing back to homes for young families again
www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-i...
Its time to return housing back to homes for young families again
www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-i...
If you're interested in the housing market AHURI have undertaken the first critical analysis of one (and there are many) indicators commonly used in policy design and management
A critical approach is mandatory to transition the market from opaque to transparent
www.ahuri.edu.au/research/fin...
A critical approach is mandatory to transition the market from opaque to transparent
www.ahuri.edu.au/research/fin...
Demystifying the rental vacancy rate measure: a critical review and policy implications | AHURI
What this research is aboutThis research is the first critical analysis of the Australian private rental vacancy rate (RVR) — an important, but often unquestioned, housing market signal. It investigat...
www.ahuri.edu.au
December 5, 2025 at 12:12 AM
If you're interested in the housing market AHURI have undertaken the first critical analysis of one (and there are many) indicators commonly used in policy design and management
A critical approach is mandatory to transition the market from opaque to transparent
www.ahuri.edu.au/research/fin...
A critical approach is mandatory to transition the market from opaque to transparent
www.ahuri.edu.au/research/fin...
In "Setting Alan Kohler straight on housing policy" Coats and Moloney were wrong and Kohler right
Grattan discounted the structural constrains of increasing supply and missed the almost immediate return of unoccupied housing through disincentivising RRE investment
grattan.edu.au/news/setting...
Grattan discounted the structural constrains of increasing supply and missed the almost immediate return of unoccupied housing through disincentivising RRE investment
grattan.edu.au/news/setting...
Setting Alan Kohler straight on housing policy - Grattan Institute
The political mood is changing, but the veteran journalist missed the moment.
grattan.edu.au
December 4, 2025 at 4:44 AM
In "Setting Alan Kohler straight on housing policy" Coats and Moloney were wrong and Kohler right
Grattan discounted the structural constrains of increasing supply and missed the almost immediate return of unoccupied housing through disincentivising RRE investment
grattan.edu.au/news/setting...
Grattan discounted the structural constrains of increasing supply and missed the almost immediate return of unoccupied housing through disincentivising RRE investment
grattan.edu.au/news/setting...
This is one of those "believe it or not" stories that, surprisingly, is not "fake news"
garethgore.substack.com/p/how-i-acci...
garethgore.substack.com/p/how-i-acci...
How I accidentally stumbled upon one of the Catholic Church's darkest secrets
The collapse of a Spanish bank in 2017 opened a window into a hidden world
garethgore.substack.com
December 3, 2025 at 3:42 AM
This is one of those "believe it or not" stories that, surprisingly, is not "fake news"
garethgore.substack.com/p/how-i-acci...
garethgore.substack.com/p/how-i-acci...
What does "supportive policy" mean in this quote?
Our latest Housing Pulse shows the market powered through spring with strong momentum, buoyed by tight on-market supply, resilient demand, and supportive policy.
Our latest Housing Pulse shows the market powered through spring with strong momentum, buoyed by tight on-market supply, resilient demand, and supportive policy.
December 2, 2025 at 4:30 AM
What does "supportive policy" mean in this quote?
Our latest Housing Pulse shows the market powered through spring with strong momentum, buoyed by tight on-market supply, resilient demand, and supportive policy.
Our latest Housing Pulse shows the market powered through spring with strong momentum, buoyed by tight on-market supply, resilient demand, and supportive policy.
This increase in house prices is not a result of increased birth rate or immigration
Its market exuberance
It is rational? Is it irrational? www.investopedia.com/terms/i/irra...
Its market exuberance
It is rational? Is it irrational? www.investopedia.com/terms/i/irra...
December 1, 2025 at 5:54 AM
This increase in house prices is not a result of increased birth rate or immigration
Its market exuberance
It is rational? Is it irrational? www.investopedia.com/terms/i/irra...
Its market exuberance
It is rational? Is it irrational? www.investopedia.com/terms/i/irra...
Short-term property investing is driving housing unaffordability
As can be seen in the graph from AMP, property and affordability diverged around 2000 when capital gains tax was discounted by 50%
That's when the punters began to have a significantly distorting effect on the market
As can be seen in the graph from AMP, property and affordability diverged around 2000 when capital gains tax was discounted by 50%
That's when the punters began to have a significantly distorting effect on the market
December 1, 2025 at 4:12 AM
Short-term property investing is driving housing unaffordability
As can be seen in the graph from AMP, property and affordability diverged around 2000 when capital gains tax was discounted by 50%
That's when the punters began to have a significantly distorting effect on the market
As can be seen in the graph from AMP, property and affordability diverged around 2000 when capital gains tax was discounted by 50%
That's when the punters began to have a significantly distorting effect on the market
You knew something wasn't right and, guess what, you were right
This short video takes a look at the tricks used to charge higher prices without consumers being aware
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/28/o...
This short video takes a look at the tricks used to charge higher prices without consumers being aware
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/28/o...
Opinion | Goodbye, Price Tags. Hello, Dynamic Pricing.
www.nytimes.com
November 30, 2025 at 11:46 PM
You knew something wasn't right and, guess what, you were right
This short video takes a look at the tricks used to charge higher prices without consumers being aware
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/28/o...
This short video takes a look at the tricks used to charge higher prices without consumers being aware
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/28/o...
APRA is signalling that borrowing for investment in the housing market may be over extended
To me, this is like the casino manager saying that a gambler has no more credit
Is Australia's housing market akin to a casino? Is that what housing is for?
To me, this is like the casino manager saying that a gambler has no more credit
Is Australia's housing market akin to a casino? Is that what housing is for?
November 28, 2025 at 12:15 AM
APRA is signalling that borrowing for investment in the housing market may be over extended
To me, this is like the casino manager saying that a gambler has no more credit
Is Australia's housing market akin to a casino? Is that what housing is for?
To me, this is like the casino manager saying that a gambler has no more credit
Is Australia's housing market akin to a casino? Is that what housing is for?
Let's be very clear
The reason that morgage holders are struggling with payments is not a 0.25 or even o.5% uptick in interest ...
... it's the massive size of the principle they need to borrow in order to secure a home at today's prices
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
The reason that morgage holders are struggling with payments is not a 0.25 or even o.5% uptick in interest ...
... it's the massive size of the principle they need to borrow in order to secure a home at today's prices
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
November 26, 2025 at 3:22 AM
Let's be very clear
The reason that morgage holders are struggling with payments is not a 0.25 or even o.5% uptick in interest ...
... it's the massive size of the principle they need to borrow in order to secure a home at today's prices
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
The reason that morgage holders are struggling with payments is not a 0.25 or even o.5% uptick in interest ...
... it's the massive size of the principle they need to borrow in order to secure a home at today's prices
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
You'd have to be blind Freddie not to be able to see the boosting of RE prices as a 'house of cards'
The news cycle tho, is just catching on to th inevitable as cheap money becomes more expensive
RE is hard to offload quickly, more so in a panic
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11...
The news cycle tho, is just catching on to th inevitable as cheap money becomes more expensive
RE is hard to offload quickly, more so in a panic
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11...
Forget Wall Street, bitcoin and AI. Here's a real Aussie bubble
Amid global warnings of impending financial doom, APRA and the Reserve Bank are far more concerned about a home-grown bubble, one that's been taking in oxygen for almost three decades.
www.abc.net.au
November 24, 2025 at 11:25 PM
You'd have to be blind Freddie not to be able to see the boosting of RE prices as a 'house of cards'
The news cycle tho, is just catching on to th inevitable as cheap money becomes more expensive
RE is hard to offload quickly, more so in a panic
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11...
The news cycle tho, is just catching on to th inevitable as cheap money becomes more expensive
RE is hard to offload quickly, more so in a panic
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11...
An appropriate way to talk about supply and demand in residential property is
"too much money chasing too few homes"
This perspective exposes both the impact of investor (punter) demand and the benefits for developers to constrain supply
"too much money chasing too few homes"
This perspective exposes both the impact of investor (punter) demand and the benefits for developers to constrain supply
November 24, 2025 at 5:04 AM
An appropriate way to talk about supply and demand in residential property is
"too much money chasing too few homes"
This perspective exposes both the impact of investor (punter) demand and the benefits for developers to constrain supply
"too much money chasing too few homes"
This perspective exposes both the impact of investor (punter) demand and the benefits for developers to constrain supply
Short-term investment outcomes are what is driving unaffordability in RRE, pricing a significant population out of the home ownership market
While WA focused, a similar story can be told of all Australian jurisdictions
www.instagram.com/reel/DRRUZAM...
While WA focused, a similar story can be told of all Australian jurisdictions
www.instagram.com/reel/DRRUZAM...
undefined on Instagram: "timclifford_This morning in Parliament I moved a motion calling on the government to take responsibility for impact AirBNBs are hav…"
timclifford_This morning in Parliament I moved a motion calling on the government to take responsibility for impact AirBNBs are having on the long-term rental market.For years, the unhosted short-stay market has been robbing thousands of Western Australians of a place to call home.As the crisis goes from bad to worse, the Cook Labor Government has not only failed to meaningfully address it – they’ve washed their hands of it entirely.And I’ve had an absolute gutful.In my motion, I urged the government to introduce a levy on short-stay rentals, and to consider other real solutions like a cap on the number of days an entire home can be leased as a short-stay each year.We need bold reform to free up AirBNBs for what they really are: homes. Because the truth is, the idea that everyone deserves a roof over their head shouldn’t be considered radical. The government’s prioritisation of wealthy investors over the rest of us should.
www.instagram.com
November 23, 2025 at 11:59 PM
Short-term investment outcomes are what is driving unaffordability in RRE, pricing a significant population out of the home ownership market
While WA focused, a similar story can be told of all Australian jurisdictions
www.instagram.com/reel/DRRUZAM...
While WA focused, a similar story can be told of all Australian jurisdictions
www.instagram.com/reel/DRRUZAM...
By contrast, in other areas AI can delivery outcomes that bypass some human shortcomings ... provided they are guided to do so
hbr.org/2025/11/can-...
hbr.org/2025/11/can-...
Can AI Boards Outperform Human Ones?
A recent poll of 500 global CEOs found that 94% believe AI could offer better counsel than at least one of their board members. And in October 2025, Kazakhstan’s national wealth fund appointed “SKAI,”...
hbr.org
November 23, 2025 at 11:51 PM
By contrast, in other areas AI can delivery outcomes that bypass some human shortcomings ... provided they are guided to do so
hbr.org/2025/11/can-...
hbr.org/2025/11/can-...
This is another very well researched article on the dark side of AI from the NYT.
It's a bit long but, if you're a parent, it's very well worth the effort
You can read it for free without a subscription. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/23/t...
It's a bit long but, if you're a parent, it's very well worth the effort
You can read it for free without a subscription. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/23/t...
What OpenAI Did When ChatGPT Users Lost Touch With Reality
www.nytimes.com
November 23, 2025 at 11:04 PM
This is another very well researched article on the dark side of AI from the NYT.
It's a bit long but, if you're a parent, it's very well worth the effort
You can read it for free without a subscription. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/23/t...
It's a bit long but, if you're a parent, it's very well worth the effort
You can read it for free without a subscription. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/23/t...
One story tells of the need for landlords in order to accommodate tenants
Another tells the need for tenants to profit landlords
Housing is a critical resource in enabling Australia's future, yet the young are priced out because housing is a tradable commodity
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
Another tells the need for tenants to profit landlords
Housing is a critical resource in enabling Australia's future, yet the young are priced out because housing is a tradable commodity
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
Property investors make up two in every five Australian home loans amid record borrowing
Investor home borrowing surges nearly 18% in the September quarter compared with previous three months, prompting calls to ‘urgently rein in overheated credit market’
www.theguardian.com
November 20, 2025 at 12:34 AM
One story tells of the need for landlords in order to accommodate tenants
Another tells the need for tenants to profit landlords
Housing is a critical resource in enabling Australia's future, yet the young are priced out because housing is a tradable commodity
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
Another tells the need for tenants to profit landlords
Housing is a critical resource in enabling Australia's future, yet the young are priced out because housing is a tradable commodity
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
There are two seductive narratives associated with housing unaffordability; supply and immigration
Neither are the root of the problem
These narratives persist as they underpin the real culprit; profiteering
While policy underwrites the risk, the deam of a home remains out of reach for the young
Neither are the root of the problem
These narratives persist as they underpin the real culprit; profiteering
While policy underwrites the risk, the deam of a home remains out of reach for the young
November 18, 2025 at 5:38 AM
There are two seductive narratives associated with housing unaffordability; supply and immigration
Neither are the root of the problem
These narratives persist as they underpin the real culprit; profiteering
While policy underwrites the risk, the deam of a home remains out of reach for the young
Neither are the root of the problem
These narratives persist as they underpin the real culprit; profiteering
While policy underwrites the risk, the deam of a home remains out of reach for the young
Why is housing unaffordable?
It's impossible to refute the evidence
For housing to be a successful investment prices must increase; that's hopw investors make a profit
Simple, really
It's impossible to refute the evidence
For housing to be a successful investment prices must increase; that's hopw investors make a profit
Simple, really
November 17, 2025 at 3:33 AM
Why is housing unaffordable?
It's impossible to refute the evidence
For housing to be a successful investment prices must increase; that's hopw investors make a profit
Simple, really
It's impossible to refute the evidence
For housing to be a successful investment prices must increase; that's hopw investors make a profit
Simple, really
And, just in case you were wondering where all the money comes from to fund the massive investment being made in AI, this free NYT article is worth a close read
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/08/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/08/b...
Debt Has Entered the A.I. Boom
www.nytimes.com
November 9, 2025 at 11:59 PM
And, just in case you were wondering where all the money comes from to fund the massive investment being made in AI, this free NYT article is worth a close read
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/08/b...
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/08/b...
AI represents the most impactful technology change in history
We must make this transition with our eyes wide open
Kim Williams makes a good points about some of the financing, ownership, and design goals behind AI
These should be taken seriously
www.theguardian.com/media/2025/n...
We must make this transition with our eyes wide open
Kim Williams makes a good points about some of the financing, ownership, and design goals behind AI
These should be taken seriously
www.theguardian.com/media/2025/n...
www.theguardian.com
November 9, 2025 at 11:52 PM
AI represents the most impactful technology change in history
We must make this transition with our eyes wide open
Kim Williams makes a good points about some of the financing, ownership, and design goals behind AI
These should be taken seriously
www.theguardian.com/media/2025/n...
We must make this transition with our eyes wide open
Kim Williams makes a good points about some of the financing, ownership, and design goals behind AI
These should be taken seriously
www.theguardian.com/media/2025/n...
The social construction of the "renter" "Investors are .... providing housing for renters" constructs the moral legitimacy of landlords, reinforcing the social construction that naturalises housing as an investment vehicle
How many renters would convert to owners if housing was affordable?
How many renters would convert to owners if housing was affordable?
November 6, 2025 at 11:02 PM
The social construction of the "renter" "Investors are .... providing housing for renters" constructs the moral legitimacy of landlords, reinforcing the social construction that naturalises housing as an investment vehicle
How many renters would convert to owners if housing was affordable?
How many renters would convert to owners if housing was affordable?
The government is in a bind:
Tradespeople represent a quantifiably significant supporter group
Voters aligned with social equity represent a quantifiably significant supporter group
Property investors represent a quantifiably significant supporter group
Which of these sway housing policy?
Why?
Tradespeople represent a quantifiably significant supporter group
Voters aligned with social equity represent a quantifiably significant supporter group
Property investors represent a quantifiably significant supporter group
Which of these sway housing policy?
Why?
November 5, 2025 at 11:53 PM
The government is in a bind:
Tradespeople represent a quantifiably significant supporter group
Voters aligned with social equity represent a quantifiably significant supporter group
Property investors represent a quantifiably significant supporter group
Which of these sway housing policy?
Why?
Tradespeople represent a quantifiably significant supporter group
Voters aligned with social equity represent a quantifiably significant supporter group
Property investors represent a quantifiably significant supporter group
Which of these sway housing policy?
Why?
This is valuable!
If you use AI I reckon it's important to understand how AI can, and often does, work
Also to understand how 'training' AI is a very different process to the process through which humans learn
Read AI output as you would an advertisement
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/b...
If you use AI I reckon it's important to understand how AI can, and often does, work
Also to understand how 'training' AI is a very different process to the process through which humans learn
Read AI output as you would an advertisement
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/b...
Right-Wing Chatbots Turbocharge America’s Political and Cultural Wars
www.nytimes.com
November 4, 2025 at 11:16 PM
This is valuable!
If you use AI I reckon it's important to understand how AI can, and often does, work
Also to understand how 'training' AI is a very different process to the process through which humans learn
Read AI output as you would an advertisement
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/b...
If you use AI I reckon it's important to understand how AI can, and often does, work
Also to understand how 'training' AI is a very different process to the process through which humans learn
Read AI output as you would an advertisement
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/04/b...
Good on you, David Pocock!
Transparency is an essential quality of a good government, Murray Watt and Katy Gallagher
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
Transparency is an essential quality of a good government, Murray Watt and Katy Gallagher
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
Senate showdown looms after Watt labels Pocock revolt against government secrecy a ‘dummy spit’
Labor could retaliate against Coalition for supporting Pocock’s motion after government loses control of Senate
www.theguardian.com
October 30, 2025 at 3:35 AM
Good on you, David Pocock!
Transparency is an essential quality of a good government, Murray Watt and Katy Gallagher
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...
Transparency is an essential quality of a good government, Murray Watt and Katy Gallagher
www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...