Tim Köhler
@timkohler.bsky.social
Development microeconomist, mostly labour. Research Fellow @dpru-uct.bsky.social, UCT 🇿🇦 • Visiting Scholar @unu-wider.bsky.social 🇫🇮 • Consultant, World Bank • Research Associate, RESEP, Stellenbosch University • PhD, UCT
https://timothykohler.github.io
https://timothykohler.github.io
A really fantastic few days in Maputo 🇲🇿 for the IGM Annual Conference & Policy Symposium, hosted by @unu-wider.bsky.social. A wonderful city with many challenges but no shortage of super welcoming people. I hope to return soon!
November 16, 2025 at 6:35 PM
A really fantastic few days in Maputo 🇲🇿 for the IGM Annual Conference & Policy Symposium, hosted by @unu-wider.bsky.social. A wonderful city with many challenges but no shortage of super welcoming people. I hope to return soon!
Great to be in Sydney🇦🇺 for the first time for the 2025 @sioecon.bsky.social Conference hosted by UNSW. Turns out koalas are indeed real (and adorable!), and apparently sleep even more than academics after conference dinners.
August 25, 2025 at 3:53 AM
Great to be in Sydney🇦🇺 for the first time for the 2025 @sioecon.bsky.social Conference hosted by UNSW. Turns out koalas are indeed real (and adorable!), and apparently sleep even more than academics after conference dinners.
Very grateful to be in Senegal 🇸🇳 for the first time this week for @j-pal.bsky.social’s Summer School on advanced randomised evaluation design. Many thanks to J-PAL, CESAG, @afd-france.bsky.social, and others for hosting me!
July 9, 2025 at 8:33 AM
Very grateful to be in Senegal 🇸🇳 for the first time this week for @j-pal.bsky.social’s Summer School on advanced randomised evaluation design. Many thanks to J-PAL, CESAG, @afd-france.bsky.social, and others for hosting me!
Presented some work at the University of Turku🇫🇮 today. Grateful for the opportunity to share some ideas & learn from such a welcoming & kind group of researchers - an impressive bunch doing great work. Thanks to @jerniemin.bsky.social @asfandyk.bsky.social @selcencakir.bsky.social for organising!
May 13, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Presented some work at the University of Turku🇫🇮 today. Grateful for the opportunity to share some ideas & learn from such a welcoming & kind group of researchers - an impressive bunch doing great work. Thanks to @jerniemin.bsky.social @asfandyk.bsky.social @selcencakir.bsky.social for organising!
Very grateful to be in beautiful Maastricht🇳🇱 today to present some work at @unumerit.bsky.social. Thanks for having me!
If you’re interested in attending in-person or online: go.unu.edu/9zq7Q
If you’re interested in attending in-person or online: go.unu.edu/9zq7Q
April 24, 2025 at 6:38 AM
Very grateful to be in beautiful Maastricht🇳🇱 today to present some work at @unumerit.bsky.social. Thanks for having me!
If you’re interested in attending in-person or online: go.unu.edu/9zq7Q
If you’re interested in attending in-person or online: go.unu.edu/9zq7Q
Very excited and grateful to be in beautiful Helsinki 🇫🇮 for the next few months as a Visiting Scholar at @unu-wider.bsky.social. If you’re around and would be keen to connect, please get in touch!
April 9, 2025 at 10:50 AM
Very excited and grateful to be in beautiful Helsinki 🇫🇮 for the next few months as a Visiting Scholar at @unu-wider.bsky.social. If you’re around and would be keen to connect, please get in touch!
A large amount of between-race wage inequality, which has ⬇️ over time, remains due to differences in education levels. However, differential returns to education across race groups are playing an increasingly important role.
5/n
5/n
March 3, 2025 at 8:42 AM
A large amount of between-race wage inequality, which has ⬇️ over time, remains due to differences in education levels. However, differential returns to education across race groups are playing an increasingly important role.
5/n
5/n
⬆️ in both (i) educational attainment & (ii) returns to education have driven real wages ⬆️. While, on average, the former is dominant, the latter has ⬆️ in importance over time. At the bottom of the wage distribution, where wages have ⬆️ the most, the latter is dominant.
4/n
4/n
March 3, 2025 at 8:42 AM
⬆️ in both (i) educational attainment & (ii) returns to education have driven real wages ⬆️. While, on average, the former is dominant, the latter has ⬆️ in importance over time. At the bottom of the wage distribution, where wages have ⬆️ the most, the latter is dominant.
4/n
4/n
While previously being relatively constant across the wage distribution, the returns to education have ⬆️ at the bottom and ⬇️ at the top, placing downward pressure on wage inequality which has decreased but, nevertheless, remains extremely high.
3/n
3/n
March 3, 2025 at 8:42 AM
While previously being relatively constant across the wage distribution, the returns to education have ⬆️ at the bottom and ⬇️ at the top, placing downward pressure on wage inequality which has decreased but, nevertheless, remains extremely high.
3/n
3/n
Following international trends, the returns structure has shifted to favour tertiary education. The returns to tertiary education have at least doubled in size, while those of lower levels have shrunk. The consequence: an increasingly convex education-earnings relationship.
2/n
2/n
March 3, 2025 at 8:42 AM
Following international trends, the returns structure has shifted to favour tertiary education. The returns to tertiary education have at least doubled in size, while those of lower levels have shrunk. The consequence: an increasingly convex education-earnings relationship.
2/n
2/n
Despite a substantial ⬆️ in educational attainment (by 25% on average), the average return to education has also ⬆️ (by 8-12% on average), implying that the increased demand for higher-educated workers has outpaced the increased supply.
1/n
1/n
March 3, 2025 at 8:42 AM
Despite a substantial ⬆️ in educational attainment (by 25% on average), the average return to education has also ⬆️ (by 8-12% on average), implying that the increased demand for higher-educated workers has outpaced the increased supply.
1/n
1/n
Overall, our study shows that outages have significant ⬇️ effects on labour market outcomes, on both the extensive & intensive margins, especially for workers in small firms.
Given these effects, it’s encouraging that SA has avoided outages for 9 months now.
Thanks for reading!
Given these effects, it’s encouraging that SA has avoided outages for 9 months now.
Thanks for reading!
January 11, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Overall, our study shows that outages have significant ⬇️ effects on labour market outcomes, on both the extensive & intensive margins, especially for workers in small firms.
Given these effects, it’s encouraging that SA has avoided outages for 9 months now.
Thanks for reading!
Given these effects, it’s encouraging that SA has avoided outages for 9 months now.
Thanks for reading!
By doing so, using varied control groups, we show that Cape Town’s @CityofCT outage mitigation:
- ⬆️ employment by 3.7% which = saving ~60,000 jobs
- ⬆️ working hours by 2% which = ~1 hour per week (driven by small firms)
- No conclusive evidence re wages or earnings
9/n
- ⬆️ employment by 3.7% which = saving ~60,000 jobs
- ⬆️ working hours by 2% which = ~1 hour per week (driven by small firms)
- No conclusive evidence re wages or earnings
9/n
January 11, 2025 at 9:16 PM
By doing so, using varied control groups, we show that Cape Town’s @CityofCT outage mitigation:
- ⬆️ employment by 3.7% which = saving ~60,000 jobs
- ⬆️ working hours by 2% which = ~1 hour per week (driven by small firms)
- No conclusive evidence re wages or earnings
9/n
- ⬆️ employment by 3.7% which = saving ~60,000 jobs
- ⬆️ working hours by 2% which = ~1 hour per week (driven by small firms)
- No conclusive evidence re wages or earnings
9/n
In our descriptive analysis, we find:
- ⬇️ associations with employment & working hours (especially the former)
- These ⬆️ in size with more intense outages
- Workers in smaller firms are more vulnerable
- No meaningful association with hourly wages or monthly earnings
7/n
- ⬇️ associations with employment & working hours (especially the former)
- These ⬆️ in size with more intense outages
- Workers in smaller firms are more vulnerable
- No meaningful association with hourly wages or monthly earnings
7/n
January 11, 2025 at 9:16 PM
In our descriptive analysis, we find:
- ⬇️ associations with employment & working hours (especially the former)
- These ⬆️ in size with more intense outages
- Workers in smaller firms are more vulnerable
- No meaningful association with hourly wages or monthly earnings
7/n
- ⬇️ associations with employment & working hours (especially the former)
- These ⬆️ in size with more intense outages
- Workers in smaller firms are more vulnerable
- No meaningful association with hourly wages or monthly earnings
7/n
Many studies show that outages in LMICs ⬇️ economic growth & firm-level outcomes eg sales, productivity.
These are expected to translate into ⬇️ labour market effects, but strikingly, almost no study examines this (notable exception of @myjumens’s fantastic 2024 JDE paper).
4/n
These are expected to translate into ⬇️ labour market effects, but strikingly, almost no study examines this (notable exception of @myjumens’s fantastic 2024 JDE paper).
4/n
January 11, 2025 at 9:16 PM
Many studies show that outages in LMICs ⬇️ economic growth & firm-level outcomes eg sales, productivity.
These are expected to translate into ⬇️ labour market effects, but strikingly, almost no study examines this (notable exception of @myjumens’s fantastic 2024 JDE paper).
4/n
These are expected to translate into ⬇️ labour market effects, but strikingly, almost no study examines this (notable exception of @myjumens’s fantastic 2024 JDE paper).
4/n
We’re very grateful to UNU-WIDER for funding an earlier version of this work, available here: www.wider.unu.edu/sites/defaul...
2/n
2/n
January 11, 2025 at 9:16 PM
We’re very grateful to UNU-WIDER for funding an earlier version of this work, available here: www.wider.unu.edu/sites/defaul...
2/n
2/n
🚨New paper!🚨
Now published in Energy Economics, we (w/ @HaroonBhorat) provide the 1st estimates of the labour market effects of frequent & severe power outages (known as “load shedding”) in South Africa 🇿🇦
Full (OA) paper available here: doi.org/10.1016/j.en...
🧵 below! 1/n
Now published in Energy Economics, we (w/ @HaroonBhorat) provide the 1st estimates of the labour market effects of frequent & severe power outages (known as “load shedding”) in South Africa 🇿🇦
Full (OA) paper available here: doi.org/10.1016/j.en...
🧵 below! 1/n
January 11, 2025 at 9:16 PM
🚨New paper!🚨
Now published in Energy Economics, we (w/ @HaroonBhorat) provide the 1st estimates of the labour market effects of frequent & severe power outages (known as “load shedding”) in South Africa 🇿🇦
Full (OA) paper available here: doi.org/10.1016/j.en...
🧵 below! 1/n
Now published in Energy Economics, we (w/ @HaroonBhorat) provide the 1st estimates of the labour market effects of frequent & severe power outages (known as “load shedding”) in South Africa 🇿🇦
Full (OA) paper available here: doi.org/10.1016/j.en...
🧵 below! 1/n
A great way to end the year 🎉
My paper, co-authored w/ Haroon Bhorat, on the labour market effects of SA’s🇿🇦 SRD grant is now published in World Development.
We began this work back in 2020. So happy it found a good home!
Full (OA) paper here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
#EconSky
My paper, co-authored w/ Haroon Bhorat, on the labour market effects of SA’s🇿🇦 SRD grant is now published in World Development.
We began this work back in 2020. So happy it found a good home!
Full (OA) paper here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
#EconSky
December 29, 2024 at 8:01 AM
A great way to end the year 🎉
My paper, co-authored w/ Haroon Bhorat, on the labour market effects of SA’s🇿🇦 SRD grant is now published in World Development.
We began this work back in 2020. So happy it found a good home!
Full (OA) paper here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
#EconSky
My paper, co-authored w/ Haroon Bhorat, on the labour market effects of SA’s🇿🇦 SRD grant is now published in World Development.
We began this work back in 2020. So happy it found a good home!
Full (OA) paper here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
#EconSky
Big thanks to @ugentilini.bsky.social for very kindly including our work on the labour market effects of South Africa’s🇿🇦 SRD grant, now forthcoming in World Development.
Abstract below and full paper here for those interested: commerce.uct.ac.za/sites/defaul...
Abstract below and full paper here for those interested: commerce.uct.ac.za/sites/defaul...
December 20, 2024 at 9:50 PM
Big thanks to @ugentilini.bsky.social for very kindly including our work on the labour market effects of South Africa’s🇿🇦 SRD grant, now forthcoming in World Development.
Abstract below and full paper here for those interested: commerce.uct.ac.za/sites/defaul...
Abstract below and full paper here for those interested: commerce.uct.ac.za/sites/defaul...
Officially completed my PhD journey! 🎓 Super excited, relieved & grateful for the opportunity. Too many people to thank, but special thanks to my supervisor Haroon Bhorat, the examiners, my DPRU colleagues, my wife, & my closest family and friends.
#PhDone #PhinisheD 🎉
#PhDone #PhinisheD 🎉
July 9, 2024 at 6:11 AM
Officially completed my PhD journey! 🎓 Super excited, relieved & grateful for the opportunity. Too many people to thank, but special thanks to my supervisor Haroon Bhorat, the examiners, my DPRU colleagues, my wife, & my closest family and friends.
#PhDone #PhinisheD 🎉
#PhDone #PhinisheD 🎉