Tim Hotze
banner
timhotze.com
Tim Hotze
@timhotze.com
Managing Editor @meninred97.com
Chicago Fire (& other) soccer
Member @soccerreporters.bsky.social

MLS Roster Rule nerd. GAM aficionado.
Oh he knows it: Apparently Trin earning 2% of the going rate for an expansion NWSL team over her new deal is the "Suez Crisis" which laid bare to the UK that they weren't a superpower post WWII.

Because that's how that went down in Egypt.
January 29, 2026 at 8:37 PM
Still trying to square "Eurorich" football with "crowds of 800" in the same column.

"Organic growth" ignores the fact that pro women's soccer didn't happen by spontaneous generation; a lot of people with a lot more money got together and made it happen... if they want to spend more on players? Good
January 29, 2026 at 8:34 PM
The universe is vast but nothing in it is more fragile than the untempered male ego.

Nothing.
January 27, 2026 at 12:34 AM
The fact that basically everyone is going to say "no, of course not, that's absurd" just screams that that's not what's going on here and the difference between this & gambling is who the regulator is
January 26, 2026 at 9:47 PM
Team's own games is 1 thing but isn't the idea of pred markets that there's value by letting someone w/insight- better model, w/e – get contracts so interested parties can have improved accuracy?

So wouldn't you *want* the ppl who know the game best – y'know, players, coaches, etc. - in the mkt?
January 26, 2026 at 9:43 PM
This is the dumbest thing: Begs Q of if teams/ppl involved Sports gambling for those in the sport is clearly wrong and illegal. But "predictions?"

Is this some extension of insider trading? A trainer can't "predict" b/c they've got material nonpublic information? It all seems absurd.
January 26, 2026 at 9:33 PM
Almost like the project was financed for something other than belief about how it'd do at the box office....
January 26, 2026 at 6:55 PM
Seriously, though: On top of Arman's MLS knowledge, dude has 2 econ degrees. I took like 2 macro classes.

Add that to his deep knowledge MLS and the cap.... if you're a true sicko, his (free!) substack is a must footyanalyticmusings.substack.com
Footy Analytic Musings | Arman | Substack
Musings about how we can do a better job of explaining and using analytics to describe the world's game. Click to read Footy Analytic Musings, by Arman, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscri...
footyanalyticmusings.substack.com
January 25, 2026 at 4:19 PM
And Bamba gets the Fire off to a 1-0 lead off of service from Gutman
January 24, 2026 at 3:23 PM
This ties into something I thought: don't base front office hires based on Football Manager.

But if you don't ask to see someone's FM save before hiring them into a role....
Are you really doing your due diligence?
January 23, 2026 at 11:11 PM
Honestly don't see that harm in trying
January 23, 2026 at 10:57 PM
January 23, 2026 at 10:47 PM
Congrats! Can't wait to see a lot more of your bylines at The Guardian!
January 23, 2026 at 5:12 PM
Big. J. Journalism.
January 23, 2026 at 4:54 PM