Thomas J Wood
@thomasjwood.bsky.social
Political scientist, Ohio State
Americans have become increasingly confident that their votes are counted as intended—aside from a sharp drop among Republicans in 2020.
Data from the Survey of the Performance of American Elections.
Data from the Survey of the Performance of American Elections.
November 24, 2025 at 4:16 AM
Americans have become increasingly confident that their votes are counted as intended—aside from a sharp drop among Republicans in 2020.
Data from the Survey of the Performance of American Elections.
Data from the Survey of the Performance of American Elections.
When 'When Prophecy Fails' Fails:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
(h/t @ethanvporter.bsky.social )
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
(h/t @ethanvporter.bsky.social )
Debunking “When Prophecy Fails”
In 1954, Dorothy Martin predicted an apocalyptic flood and promised her followers rescue by flying saucers. When neither arrived, she recanted, her group dissolved, and efforts to proselytize ceased....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
November 6, 2025 at 2:28 PM
When 'When Prophecy Fails' Fails:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
(h/t @ethanvporter.bsky.social )
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...
(h/t @ethanvporter.bsky.social )
In 2025, polarization on schools & the Supreme Court leaves only Banks + Big Business with moderate/high confidence across parties.
Populism still cuts across partisan lines. Data: @gallup.com Social Series.
Populism still cuts across partisan lines. Data: @gallup.com Social Series.
October 29, 2025 at 2:22 PM
In 2025, polarization on schools & the Supreme Court leaves only Banks + Big Business with moderate/high confidence across parties.
Populism still cuts across partisan lines. Data: @gallup.com Social Series.
Populism still cuts across partisan lines. Data: @gallup.com Social Series.
The recent reversal in Republicans' moral approval of Gay and Lesbian relations is even more striking in context -- it does *not* coincide with more restrictive moral licensing in other areas.
Data from Gallup's Social Series.
Data from Gallup's Social Series.
October 26, 2025 at 9:22 PM
The recent reversal in Republicans' moral approval of Gay and Lesbian relations is even more striking in context -- it does *not* coincide with more restrictive moral licensing in other areas.
Data from Gallup's Social Series.
Data from Gallup's Social Series.
The inversion between income and Whites' presidential vote is also found among the validated voters in the just released Cooperative Election Study.
October 15, 2025 at 3:45 PM
The inversion between income and Whites' presidential vote is also found among the validated voters in the just released Cooperative Election Study.
Something undergrads after often surprised to find out--there's curiously little money in American politics.
October 8, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Something undergrads after often surprised to find out--there's curiously little money in American politics.
The last time I posted the income relationship to presidential vote among White respondents to the @electionstudies.bsky.social ANES, people asked for additional estimates among all voters.
Updated estimates here:
Updated estimates here:
October 2, 2025 at 4:26 PM
The last time I posted the income relationship to presidential vote among White respondents to the @electionstudies.bsky.social ANES, people asked for additional estimates among all voters.
Updated estimates here:
Updated estimates here:
Rapid secularization of Democratic politics continues -- in the 2024 ANES, only 54% of Democrats reported religion an important part of their life.
September 30, 2025 at 1:56 AM
Rapid secularization of Democratic politics continues -- in the 2024 ANES, only 54% of Democrats reported religion an important part of their life.
Trump's presidency has coincided with a rapid decline in GOP partisan advantage -- a 5 percentage point decline since the end of Biden's presidency.
Data from Gallup social series.
Data from Gallup social series.
September 28, 2025 at 2:48 AM
Trump's presidency has coincided with a rapid decline in GOP partisan advantage -- a 5 percentage point decline since the end of Biden's presidency.
Data from Gallup social series.
Data from Gallup social series.
Might be of interest to those teaching American politics -- motivated reasoning in retrospective economic/personal/geostrategic evaluation has been a stable part of presidential elections for 40 years.
Data from the @electionstudies.bsky.social CDF and 2024 timeseries.
Data from the @electionstudies.bsky.social CDF and 2024 timeseries.
September 25, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Might be of interest to those teaching American politics -- motivated reasoning in retrospective economic/personal/geostrategic evaluation has been a stable part of presidential elections for 40 years.
Data from the @electionstudies.bsky.social CDF and 2024 timeseries.
Data from the @electionstudies.bsky.social CDF and 2024 timeseries.
By the end of 2024, Stimson's Policy Mood was near 20 year highs in liberal policy support.
(Ht @mattgrossmann.bsky.social for tweeting the new data!)
(Ht @mattgrossmann.bsky.social for tweeting the new data!)
August 23, 2025 at 12:07 AM
By the end of 2024, Stimson's Policy Mood was near 20 year highs in liberal policy support.
(Ht @mattgrossmann.bsky.social for tweeting the new data!)
(Ht @mattgrossmann.bsky.social for tweeting the new data!)
As expected, the change in government sharply reduced Democrats’ trust in the CDC and FDA. But surprisingly, by 2025 Democrats now express higher trust in federal health authorities than Republicans do.
August 21, 2025 at 3:16 PM
As expected, the change in government sharply reduced Democrats’ trust in the CDC and FDA. But surprisingly, by 2025 Democrats now express higher trust in federal health authorities than Republicans do.
With initial data, it appears that Trump's 2nd term approval is weakly related to consumer confidence.
August 15, 2025 at 9:20 PM
With initial data, it appears that Trump's 2nd term approval is weakly related to consumer confidence.
The rightward shift in young men's partisanship is recent -- since 2024.
data from the @pewresearch.org 's NPORS study.
data from the @pewresearch.org 's NPORS study.
July 25, 2025 at 3:30 AM
The rightward shift in young men's partisanship is recent -- since 2024.
data from the @pewresearch.org 's NPORS study.
data from the @pewresearch.org 's NPORS study.
Even Republicans have not recovered their pre-pandemic levels of economic confidence.
Data from the University of Michigan ISR's (bsky-less?) consumer sentiment survey
Data from the University of Michigan ISR's (bsky-less?) consumer sentiment survey
July 7, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Even Republicans have not recovered their pre-pandemic levels of economic confidence.
Data from the University of Michigan ISR's (bsky-less?) consumer sentiment survey
Data from the University of Michigan ISR's (bsky-less?) consumer sentiment survey
Presidential vote has only been correlated with life expectancy since 2008, and even then the effect is strongest among whites.
June 20, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Presidential vote has only been correlated with life expectancy since 2008, and even then the effect is strongest among whites.
While liberals have moved almost a full scale point more supportive of free trade since the election (on a 7pt scale) conservatives are unmoved.
A super interesting case for the role of elites in shaping mass attitudes.
Data from the incredible @prl.bsky.social 's 'America's Political Pulse.'
A super interesting case for the role of elites in shaping mass attitudes.
Data from the incredible @prl.bsky.social 's 'America's Political Pulse.'
June 18, 2025 at 5:17 PM
While liberals have moved almost a full scale point more supportive of free trade since the election (on a 7pt scale) conservatives are unmoved.
A super interesting case for the role of elites in shaping mass attitudes.
Data from the incredible @prl.bsky.social 's 'America's Political Pulse.'
A super interesting case for the role of elites in shaping mass attitudes.
Data from the incredible @prl.bsky.social 's 'America's Political Pulse.'
Outside of a tiny number of super polarized issues (in this case, immigration and climate change), the American public basically agrees on the topics deserving of national attention.
Data from AP-NORC.
Data from AP-NORC.
June 13, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Outside of a tiny number of super polarized issues (in this case, immigration and climate change), the American public basically agrees on the topics deserving of national attention.
Data from AP-NORC.
Data from AP-NORC.
It's only on questions of race where younger generations are less tolerant -- for the other speakers on the GSS, Gen Z/Millenials basically indistinguishable from other Americans.
June 3, 2025 at 5:39 AM
It's only on questions of race where younger generations are less tolerant -- for the other speakers on the GSS, Gen Z/Millenials basically indistinguishable from other Americans.
National political spending preferences by partisanship, 1972-2024.
Fascinating that numerous policy areas have seen negligble polarization over this period. Data from @norc.org's GSS
Fascinating that numerous policy areas have seen negligble polarization over this period. Data from @norc.org's GSS
May 30, 2025 at 5:01 PM
National political spending preferences by partisanship, 1972-2024.
Fascinating that numerous policy areas have seen negligble polarization over this period. Data from @norc.org's GSS
Fascinating that numerous policy areas have seen negligble polarization over this period. Data from @norc.org's GSS
Confidence in national institutions, by partisanship, 1974-2024.
The collapse in Democrats' Supreme Court confidence in 2022-2024 is the largest single year change seen in 50 years. Data from the GSS @norc.org
The collapse in Democrats' Supreme Court confidence in 2022-2024 is the largest single year change seen in 50 years. Data from the GSS @norc.org
May 29, 2025 at 6:21 AM
Confidence in national institutions, by partisanship, 1974-2024.
The collapse in Democrats' Supreme Court confidence in 2022-2024 is the largest single year change seen in 50 years. Data from the GSS @norc.org
The collapse in Democrats' Supreme Court confidence in 2022-2024 is the largest single year change seen in 50 years. Data from the GSS @norc.org
The newly released GSS shows Whites continue to liberalize in their perceived cause of racial economic inequality.
May 27, 2025 at 4:41 PM
The newly released GSS shows Whites continue to liberalize in their perceived cause of racial economic inequality.
Stark class income * partisan effect also apparent in 119th Congress's congressional districts:
May 27, 2025 at 4:38 AM
Stark class income * partisan effect also apparent in 119th Congress's congressional districts:
