The Year of Glad
@theyearofglad.bsky.social
Sometimes, when people suggest that you delete a post, it’s because they otherwise like you and would prefer that you stop showing your ass in public, in contrast to elaborating on your original point, which would produce the opposite of that result.
December 21, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Sometimes, when people suggest that you delete a post, it’s because they otherwise like you and would prefer that you stop showing your ass in public, in contrast to elaborating on your original point, which would produce the opposite of that result.
I think that your data nerds might just be describing fandom in the language of data, because that’s the lens through which they view everything. And there are probably other data nerds who are drawn to the interlinked nature of football analysis, like people who prefer go to chess.
December 21, 2025 at 5:32 AM
I think that your data nerds might just be describing fandom in the language of data, because that’s the lens through which they view everything. And there are probably other data nerds who are drawn to the interlinked nature of football analysis, like people who prefer go to chess.
In contrast to something like football, where there are 22 things happening simultaneously on every given play and even an expert needs multiple viewings to fully take it all in. That’s as much an aesthetic quality of the game as an analytical one.
December 21, 2025 at 5:30 AM
In contrast to something like football, where there are 22 things happening simultaneously on every given play and even an expert needs multiple viewings to fully take it all in. That’s as much an aesthetic quality of the game as an analytical one.
That approach isn’t fundamentally incompatible with enjoying the game, though. I know non-data fans who like baseball in part because it’s easy for even a novice to to tell who did well or poorly on any given play.
December 21, 2025 at 5:27 AM
That approach isn’t fundamentally incompatible with enjoying the game, though. I know non-data fans who like baseball in part because it’s easy for even a novice to to tell who did well or poorly on any given play.
Learning was the only original goal, and once the knowledge existed and was publicly available, it was inevitable that sooner or later, capital would find a way to try and convert that into profit. Ownership (and their figurehead, the commissioner) are the only real villains here.
December 21, 2025 at 5:24 AM
Learning was the only original goal, and once the knowledge existed and was publicly available, it was inevitable that sooner or later, capital would find a way to try and convert that into profit. Ownership (and their figurehead, the commissioner) are the only real villains here.
Sure, but pretty much all the stuff that you seem to find objectionable grew out of the efforts of a bunch of message board hobbyists who saw something, thought, “Huh, that’s weird,” and decided to start running some numbers.
December 21, 2025 at 5:21 AM
Sure, but pretty much all the stuff that you seem to find objectionable grew out of the efforts of a bunch of message board hobbyists who saw something, thought, “Huh, that’s weird,” and decided to start running some numbers.
As well as crossover projects with aspects of both, like the Retrosheet guys who search out and manually digitize data from 19th-century and early 20th-century games that currently only exists in physical box scores and scoresheets.
December 21, 2025 at 5:18 AM
As well as crossover projects with aspects of both, like the Retrosheet guys who search out and manually digitize data from 19th-century and early 20th-century games that currently only exists in physical box scores and scoresheets.
In spite of the term sabermetrics, 90% of what SABR does has nothing to do with statistical analysis. They’re way more focused on history. Though the majority of the baseball data nerds I know are also deeply interested in the historical side of the game, so there’s crossover in that respect.
December 21, 2025 at 5:15 AM
In spite of the term sabermetrics, 90% of what SABR does has nothing to do with statistical analysis. They’re way more focused on history. Though the majority of the baseball data nerds I know are also deeply interested in the historical side of the game, so there’s crossover in that respect.
It seems like you’re trying to “no true Scotsman” this. None of the four guys I’m talking about are at all fans of RBI or ERA. One is the literal inventor of defense-independent pitching analysis. They moved beyond those crude measures specifically because they wanted to understand the game better.
December 21, 2025 at 5:10 AM
It seems like you’re trying to “no true Scotsman” this. None of the four guys I’m talking about are at all fans of RBI or ERA. One is the literal inventor of defense-independent pitching analysis. They moved beyond those crude measures specifically because they wanted to understand the game better.
No, the trends leading to all of this started long before personal computers were common. Smaller fields and the elimination of artificial turf. An increased focus on strength training and muscle. Bats with a higher moment of inertia. Etc.
December 21, 2025 at 5:06 AM
No, the trends leading to all of this started long before personal computers were common. Smaller fields and the elimination of artificial turf. An increased focus on strength training and muscle. Bats with a higher moment of inertia. Etc.
For one of them, selling forecasts and data to teams is just a tiny professional sideline. Almost all of his money comes from geology work for the energy industry. He did the baseball stuff for free for years, for fun, on his own time, and only “turned pro” when teams approached him with checks.
December 21, 2025 at 4:58 AM
For one of them, selling forecasts and data to teams is just a tiny professional sideline. Almost all of his money comes from geology work for the energy industry. He did the baseball stuff for free for years, for fun, on his own time, and only “turned pro” when teams approached him with checks.
Do you actually know any of these “deep math nerds”? I do. I’ve been on the fringes of that community since rec.sport.baseball on Usenet in the ‘90s, I’m friends with at least four people who have gotten hired as data guys by various teams, and they’re all 99th percentile insane fans.
December 21, 2025 at 4:55 AM
Do you actually know any of these “deep math nerds”? I do. I’ve been on the fringes of that community since rec.sport.baseball on Usenet in the ‘90s, I’m friends with at least four people who have gotten hired as data guys by various teams, and they’re all 99th percentile insane fans.
Again, I place the blame for baseball becoming un-fun on the league allowing rules and practices to drift into a state where un-fun play would be optimal. Computers are a force multiplier, but if Branch Rickey could be a data guy in the ‘40s, someone was going to figure it out sooner or later.
December 21, 2025 at 4:52 AM
Again, I place the blame for baseball becoming un-fun on the league allowing rules and practices to drift into a state where un-fun play would be optimal. Computers are a force multiplier, but if Branch Rickey could be a data guy in the ‘40s, someone was going to figure it out sooner or later.
Pulling the ball works better when you allow parks with short porches down the lines, and the break-even point for things like stealing and sac bunts tracks with the overall run environment.
December 21, 2025 at 4:50 AM
Pulling the ball works better when you allow parks with short porches down the lines, and the break-even point for things like stealing and sac bunts tracks with the overall run environment.
TTO is the superior approach in a game played _in a modern park/league context and under modern play conditions_, but it wasn’t an inevitability that those would be the circumstances under which baseball would be played.
December 21, 2025 at 4:48 AM
TTO is the superior approach in a game played _in a modern park/league context and under modern play conditions_, but it wasn’t an inevitability that those would be the circumstances under which baseball would be played.
Pro move is to immediately stick the ball up under your shirt. That way, holding onto it isn’t a function of grip strength, and as a bonus the defenders might feel bad about breaking you in half if you subconsciously remind them of a pregnant woman.
December 21, 2025 at 4:34 AM
Pro move is to immediately stick the ball up under your shirt. That way, holding onto it isn’t a function of grip strength, and as a bonus the defenders might feel bad about breaking you in half if you subconsciously remind them of a pregnant woman.
Loaded up the ol’ Marge Simpson.
December 21, 2025 at 4:28 AM
Loaded up the ol’ Marge Simpson.
I think there’s potentially some merit to that idea. I’m also curious about baseballs with smaller seams, since smoother balls would break less, reducing the value of high-spin curves and sliders and making it harder to chase Ks as aggressively.
December 21, 2025 at 2:03 AM
I think there’s potentially some merit to that idea. I’m also curious about baseballs with smaller seams, since smoother balls would break less, reducing the value of high-spin curves and sliders and making it harder to chase Ks as aggressively.
And the steroid moral panic only happened because Selig signal-boosted it in the hopes of getting a wedge issue to use against the MLBPA in CBA negotiations, long-term consequences to the game’s reputation be damned.
December 21, 2025 at 1:59 AM
And the steroid moral panic only happened because Selig signal-boosted it in the hopes of getting a wedge issue to use against the MLBPA in CBA negotiations, long-term consequences to the game’s reputation be damned.
If they really wanted something like that, the easiest way to do it would be to create new rules regarding bat dimensions: specifically, on the diameter of the neck. The fat barrels and thin necks of modern bats are one of the main drivers of the pull-power revolution.
December 21, 2025 at 1:55 AM
If they really wanted something like that, the easiest way to do it would be to create new rules regarding bat dimensions: specifically, on the diameter of the neck. The fat barrels and thin necks of modern bats are one of the main drivers of the pull-power revolution.
Many of MLB’s recent changes, like the universal DH and the restrictions on defensive shifts, actively move the game away from the ‘70s-style contact-and-defense approach they claim to want, which is frustrating.
December 21, 2025 at 1:51 AM
Many of MLB’s recent changes, like the universal DH and the restrictions on defensive shifts, actively move the game away from the ‘70s-style contact-and-defense approach they claim to want, which is frustrating.
(Silver’s work also suffered from an unwillingness to openly discuss his methodology with other members of the analytical community, who provided useful feedback for those who were more open about their approach, as with Voros McCracken and DIPS.)
December 21, 2025 at 1:47 AM
(Silver’s work also suffered from an unwillingness to openly discuss his methodology with other members of the analytical community, who provided useful feedback for those who were more open about their approach, as with Voros McCracken and DIPS.)
(Also, even back in the old days, Nate Silver was better at selling his analysis as a valuable product than he actually was at, y’know, data analysis. PECOA’s approach was interesting and novel, but didn’t consistently outperform free alternatives like Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS.)
December 21, 2025 at 1:44 AM
(Also, even back in the old days, Nate Silver was better at selling his analysis as a valuable product than he actually was at, y’know, data analysis. PECOA’s approach was interesting and novel, but didn’t consistently outperform free alternatives like Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS.)
Sabermetrics is a tool like any other. You can use a hammer to build a deck, or you can use a hammer to break your thumb, and either way the outcome is a reflection of the merits of the carpenter, not the hammer.
December 21, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Sabermetrics is a tool like any other. You can use a hammer to build a deck, or you can use a hammer to break your thumb, and either way the outcome is a reflection of the merits of the carpenter, not the hammer.
If you want a more entertaining product with more contact hitting and defense, fewer walks, and less selling out for strikeouts and home runs, the data guys can help you find a path toward that. Selig and Manfred were just incompetent stewards of the game who lacked vision.
December 21, 2025 at 1:36 AM
If you want a more entertaining product with more contact hitting and defense, fewer walks, and less selling out for strikeouts and home runs, the data guys can help you find a path toward that. Selig and Manfred were just incompetent stewards of the game who lacked vision.