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The_Weather_Vane
@theweathervane.bsky.social
Weather watcher, sharing updates for PA - USA
SPC Dec 21, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Minimal thunderstorm potential remains evident across much of the CONUS on Monday, as upper-level ridging is maintained over the central U.S. One exception may be across parts of coastal WA/OR as a mid-level shortwave trough progresses eastward from the eastern Pacific into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest through Monday afternoon/evening. Even though daytime heating and low-level moisture are forecast to remain limited, cool temperatures aloft and weak MUCAPE associated with the shortwave trough may support occasional lightning flashes with low-topped convection moving inland along the immediate WA/OR Coast. A plume of mid-level moisture and associated precipitation will impact parts of northern/central CA through the period, although warmer mid-level temperatures compared to locations farther north and negligible forecast instability suggest little potential for lightning. Elsewhere, very weak forcing aloft should limit thunderstorm potential across coastal TX to the central Gulf Coast, even as low-level moisture gradually increases across these areas. ..Gleason.. 12/21/2025 Read more
dlvr.it
December 21, 2025 at 6:01 PM
SPC Dec 21, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A dominant mid- to upper-level ridge will remain steadfast across central portion of the Lower 48 states. An upper trough will encroach on the West Coast, and a lead mid-level trough will move quickly northeast from the eastern Pacific into the northern CA coastal area late Tuesday night. Scant to weak buoyancy will gradually develop Tuesday night in the vicinity of the CA coast and coastal range from near Point Conception to near the OR border. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually spread inland concurrent with increasing large-scale forcing and instability. Some forecast soundings depict a deep, lower-tropospheric moist layer co-located with intense low-level shear, which could imply storm organization being possible with the strongest low-topped storms. Uncertainty is high at this time for such a scenario given appreciable model variability. Farther east, a weak upper trough near the lower Rio Grande Valley will undercut a mid- to upper-level ridge over the central US. Weak convection is possible in association with this upper feature, but confidence in attaining 10-percent thunderstorm probabilities is low at this time. ..Smith.. 12/21/2025 Read more
dlvr.it
December 21, 2025 at 8:20 AM