@theeconomiclens.bsky.social
Lower. OBR is 1.5, 1.4 and 1.3
December 3, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Lower. OBR is 1.5, 1.4 and 1.3
I do get the furious part a bit - why say there was higher productivity growth then when it was widely discussed it was too high. But this also raises the point that the government rely on this too much and should (Hunt and Reeves) have applied more thought in the previous budgets
December 2, 2025 at 10:14 AM
I do get the furious part a bit - why say there was higher productivity growth then when it was widely discussed it was too high. But this also raises the point that the government rely on this too much and should (Hunt and Reeves) have applied more thought in the previous budgets
Not sure what the “misled” bit is. Take out the 2 child cap and she still needed to get money from somewhere. Seems like a nothing story
December 1, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Not sure what the “misled” bit is. Take out the 2 child cap and she still needed to get money from somewhere. Seems like a nothing story
Absolutely agree. This should be raised every time a minister is out discussing the manifesto commitments
December 1, 2025 at 10:38 AM
Absolutely agree. This should be raised every time a minister is out discussing the manifesto commitments
So they need to rewrite, for example, planning law to remove things doing the same thing or are no longer necessary and make it cheaper and easier to build things.
The epitome of this is that in 2030, after 30 years of discussion, we *might* have approval to put a strip of tarmac by Heathrow
The epitome of this is that in 2030, after 30 years of discussion, we *might* have approval to put a strip of tarmac by Heathrow
December 1, 2025 at 9:28 AM
So they need to rewrite, for example, planning law to remove things doing the same thing or are no longer necessary and make it cheaper and easier to build things.
The epitome of this is that in 2030, after 30 years of discussion, we *might* have approval to put a strip of tarmac by Heathrow
The epitome of this is that in 2030, after 30 years of discussion, we *might* have approval to put a strip of tarmac by Heathrow
Finally - I really hope they make some bold pro-growth changes. Worryingly PM said something like “normally the left want regulation”. That’s not really true, the left want sensible safeguards so people aren’t out in danger from poisonous food or shoddy building or…. It’s protections
December 1, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Finally - I really hope they make some bold pro-growth changes. Worryingly PM said something like “normally the left want regulation”. That’s not really true, the left want sensible safeguards so people aren’t out in danger from poisonous food or shoddy building or…. It’s protections
Second is hopes for the next budget, trying to be as unnaive as possible. I hope there’s a bigger surplus that forecast - they should then bank half and spend half. The spend should be 1) raising all thresholds including the 100k 2) remove stamp duty on shares 3) increase defence spending
December 1, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Second is hopes for the next budget, trying to be as unnaive as possible. I hope there’s a bigger surplus that forecast - they should then bank half and spend half. The spend should be 1) raising all thresholds including the 100k 2) remove stamp duty on shares 3) increase defence spending
A great Monday morning read 🙂
This promoted a few thoughts. The middle in the UK is ridiculously low driven by the lack of productivity growth over the last decade. People are leaving not just because of tax but also pay levels
This promoted a few thoughts. The middle in the UK is ridiculously low driven by the lack of productivity growth over the last decade. People are leaving not just because of tax but also pay levels
December 1, 2025 at 9:28 AM
A great Monday morning read 🙂
This promoted a few thoughts. The middle in the UK is ridiculously low driven by the lack of productivity growth over the last decade. People are leaving not just because of tax but also pay levels
This promoted a few thoughts. The middle in the UK is ridiculously low driven by the lack of productivity growth over the last decade. People are leaving not just because of tax but also pay levels
And it’s not just “working in healthcare”. For example someone working as a doctor in the NHS is very different to someone working as a doctore advising private healthcare just before a vote in parliament affecting that private healthcare provider
November 30, 2025 at 11:19 AM
And it’s not just “working in healthcare”. For example someone working as a doctor in the NHS is very different to someone working as a doctore advising private healthcare just before a vote in parliament affecting that private healthcare provider
Exactly. The second jobs thing is much more nuanced than they make it sound
November 30, 2025 at 11:17 AM
Exactly. The second jobs thing is much more nuanced than they make it sound
It doesn’t have to be the budget that boosts growth (although there obvious misses in that). I want to know what the government plan to do that will boost growth. They seemed to have a lot of things planned head into office that just dissipated. What changes will they make?
November 30, 2025 at 12:31 AM
It doesn’t have to be the budget that boosts growth (although there obvious misses in that). I want to know what the government plan to do that will boost growth. They seemed to have a lot of things planned head into office that just dissipated. What changes will they make?
If someone has a lot of stocks with unrealised gains fine, they can sell them (especially because the richest don’t sell they just borrow against them to save tax). But a house you live in? You can’t just sell a bedroom
November 29, 2025 at 3:06 PM
If someone has a lot of stocks with unrealised gains fine, they can sell them (especially because the richest don’t sell they just borrow against them to save tax). But a house you live in? You can’t just sell a bedroom
I have mixed views. The house being worth 2m now is absolutely no benefit to her. No one really benefits from the house artificially raising in value unless selling or doing equity release. That being said, the extra can be deferred. 100 years worth of the tax would be about 12% of the value I think
November 29, 2025 at 2:47 PM
I have mixed views. The house being worth 2m now is absolutely no benefit to her. No one really benefits from the house artificially raising in value unless selling or doing equity release. That being said, the extra can be deferred. 100 years worth of the tax would be about 12% of the value I think
This really does look like “how to make train services as terrible as possible”
November 29, 2025 at 1:33 PM
This really does look like “how to make train services as terrible as possible”
Also - if stocks were better valued then that would likely encourage more inward investment creating a virtuous circle. It would help companies get the funding they need rather than having to go to the US for it
November 29, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Also - if stocks were better valued then that would likely encourage more inward investment creating a virtuous circle. It would help companies get the funding they need rather than having to go to the US for it
Lots of countries, the US in particular, have a stronger investing culture. We’re unlikely to get 7% interest rates soon so anyone saving will do better long term in the stock market than cash. Anyone with more than £10k should be looking at stocks but we’ve spent too much time saying they’re risky
November 29, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Lots of countries, the US in particular, have a stronger investing culture. We’re unlikely to get 7% interest rates soon so anyone saving will do better long term in the stock market than cash. Anyone with more than £10k should be looking at stocks but we’ve spent too much time saying they’re risky
And the government needs to untie the hands of people working at banks talking to customers. They should be able to give small pieces of advice but they can’t even mention investing without a lot of training which is why it’s always specialists - hence people just starting can’t get any advice
November 29, 2025 at 8:38 AM
And the government needs to untie the hands of people working at banks talking to customers. They should be able to give small pieces of advice but they can’t even mention investing without a lot of training which is why it’s always specialists - hence people just starting can’t get any advice
The problem is because the U.K. has spent so much energy focusing on “stocks can go down as well as up” and focusing on the risks. People should learn about investing in school (along with a lot of money matters)
November 29, 2025 at 8:36 AM
The problem is because the U.K. has spent so much energy focusing on “stocks can go down as well as up” and focusing on the risks. People should learn about investing in school (along with a lot of money matters)
So this means after 30 years we *might* be at the stage work can start…on laying a strip of tarmac
If Labour can’t making planning and approval quicker nothing will be able to start building this decade. That means no improvement in productivity and no growth, regardless of what was in the budget
If Labour can’t making planning and approval quicker nothing will be able to start building this decade. That means no improvement in productivity and no growth, regardless of what was in the budget
November 26, 2025 at 5:48 PM
So this means after 30 years we *might* be at the stage work can start…on laying a strip of tarmac
If Labour can’t making planning and approval quicker nothing will be able to start building this decade. That means no improvement in productivity and no growth, regardless of what was in the budget
If Labour can’t making planning and approval quicker nothing will be able to start building this decade. That means no improvement in productivity and no growth, regardless of what was in the budget
One more thing I saw yesterday- the government agreed to Heathrow’s runway plan. Now they need to raise prices to be able to afford to submit a planning application (which they’ve done before) which might get approved around 2030. It was first seriously looked at around 2000
November 26, 2025 at 5:48 PM
One more thing I saw yesterday- the government agreed to Heathrow’s runway plan. Now they need to raise prices to be able to afford to submit a planning application (which they’ve done before) which might get approved around 2030. It was first seriously looked at around 2000
There wasn’t really anything to support the economy or push growth. It was good that she didn’t also add on the pension changes immediately but all the revenue raising was pushed to the end of the parliament. It very much feels like they’re still crossing their fingers for something good to happen
November 26, 2025 at 5:48 PM
There wasn’t really anything to support the economy or push growth. It was good that she didn’t also add on the pension changes immediately but all the revenue raising was pushed to the end of the parliament. It very much feels like they’re still crossing their fingers for something good to happen
What of other items? It needed to be a down on inflation, so did it? While the energy cuts will be eye catching the up to 8% minimum wage increases will add costs onto business pushing inflation higher again and harming the economy
November 26, 2025 at 5:48 PM
What of other items? It needed to be a down on inflation, so did it? While the energy cuts will be eye catching the up to 8% minimum wage increases will add costs onto business pushing inflation higher again and harming the economy
That’s the problem - the OBR are projections. The seem to be treated like “if only the OBR were kinder everything would be good”.
November 26, 2025 at 7:36 AM
That’s the problem - the OBR are projections. The seem to be treated like “if only the OBR were kinder everything would be good”.