The Barn
@thebarnblog.bsky.social
My blog about developing tools for better investing | Helping to assess companies and navigate investment decisions | 16 years in corporate finance 🇸🇪 🇩🇰
#investing #valueinvesting #financialanalysis
Visit the blog: https://thebarnblog.substack.com/
#investing #valueinvesting #financialanalysis
Visit the blog: https://thebarnblog.substack.com/
Company Breakdown 🧩
The results are clear:
🔴 No company in the sample grows fast enough to offset its P/E.
🟡 #SAP - elevated P/E, negative earnings growth.
🟡 #SageGroup, #TeamViewer - modest growth, but valuations remain demanding.
PEG isn’t harsh here and growth hasn’t kept up!
(2/5)
The results are clear:
🔴 No company in the sample grows fast enough to offset its P/E.
🟡 #SAP - elevated P/E, negative earnings growth.
🟡 #SageGroup, #TeamViewer - modest growth, but valuations remain demanding.
PEG isn’t harsh here and growth hasn’t kept up!
(2/5)
November 20, 2025 at 8:52 AM
Company Breakdown 🧩
The results are clear:
🔴 No company in the sample grows fast enough to offset its P/E.
🟡 #SAP - elevated P/E, negative earnings growth.
🟡 #SageGroup, #TeamViewer - modest growth, but valuations remain demanding.
PEG isn’t harsh here and growth hasn’t kept up!
(2/5)
The results are clear:
🔴 No company in the sample grows fast enough to offset its P/E.
🟡 #SAP - elevated P/E, negative earnings growth.
🟡 #SageGroup, #TeamViewer - modest growth, but valuations remain demanding.
PEG isn’t harsh here and growth hasn’t kept up!
(2/5)
Margin of Safety, Don’t Overestimate! ⚠️
Wide margins of safety look attractive but PEG only measures price vs growth.
It doesn’t confirm balance sheet strength, brand durability, or pricing power.
Before drawing conclusions, the full metric stack needs to be checked!
(3/5)
Wide margins of safety look attractive but PEG only measures price vs growth.
It doesn’t confirm balance sheet strength, brand durability, or pricing power.
Before drawing conclusions, the full metric stack needs to be checked!
(3/5)
November 19, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Margin of Safety, Don’t Overestimate! ⚠️
Wide margins of safety look attractive but PEG only measures price vs growth.
It doesn’t confirm balance sheet strength, brand durability, or pricing power.
Before drawing conclusions, the full metric stack needs to be checked!
(3/5)
Wide margins of safety look attractive but PEG only measures price vs growth.
It doesn’t confirm balance sheet strength, brand durability, or pricing power.
Before drawing conclusions, the full metric stack needs to be checked!
(3/5)
Company Highlights 🕵️♂️
The results split into three clear groups:
🟢 #HM, #EssilorLuxottica → meaningful margin of safety (43% & 61%).
🟡 #LVMH, #Moncler → close to fairly valued, modest upside.
🔴 #Adidas, #Richemont, #Hermes → high P/Es push PEG into the expensive range.
(2/5)
The results split into three clear groups:
🟢 #HM, #EssilorLuxottica → meaningful margin of safety (43% & 61%).
🟡 #LVMH, #Moncler → close to fairly valued, modest upside.
🔴 #Adidas, #Richemont, #Hermes → high P/Es push PEG into the expensive range.
(2/5)
November 19, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Company Highlights 🕵️♂️
The results split into three clear groups:
🟢 #HM, #EssilorLuxottica → meaningful margin of safety (43% & 61%).
🟡 #LVMH, #Moncler → close to fairly valued, modest upside.
🔴 #Adidas, #Richemont, #Hermes → high P/Es push PEG into the expensive range.
(2/5)
The results split into three clear groups:
🟢 #HM, #EssilorLuxottica → meaningful margin of safety (43% & 61%).
🟡 #LVMH, #Moncler → close to fairly valued, modest upside.
🔴 #Adidas, #Richemont, #Hermes → high P/Es push PEG into the expensive range.
(2/5)
Margin of Safety: Room to Grow? 📈
Some companies show a wide margin of safety, meaning their implied fair value is well below today’s price.
Remember ⚠️
👉 Margin of safety is a signal.
👉 PEG captures price vs growth, but it doesn’t test balance sheets, cash flow, or project risk.
(3/5)
Some companies show a wide margin of safety, meaning their implied fair value is well below today’s price.
Remember ⚠️
👉 Margin of safety is a signal.
👉 PEG captures price vs growth, but it doesn’t test balance sheets, cash flow, or project risk.
(3/5)
November 18, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Margin of Safety: Room to Grow? 📈
Some companies show a wide margin of safety, meaning their implied fair value is well below today’s price.
Remember ⚠️
👉 Margin of safety is a signal.
👉 PEG captures price vs growth, but it doesn’t test balance sheets, cash flow, or project risk.
(3/5)
Some companies show a wide margin of safety, meaning their implied fair value is well below today’s price.
Remember ⚠️
👉 Margin of safety is a signal.
👉 PEG captures price vs growth, but it doesn’t test balance sheets, cash flow, or project risk.
(3/5)
Company Insights 🛠️
Here’s the snapshot:
🟢 #Eiffage, #Vinci, #BalfourBeatty, #Strabag → positive earnings growth and reasonable P/E ratios.
⚠️ #NCC (pure-play) → solid industry, but above implied fair value.
⚠️ #Acciona → renewables exposure + valuation pressure = overvalued on #PEG.
(2/5)
Here’s the snapshot:
🟢 #Eiffage, #Vinci, #BalfourBeatty, #Strabag → positive earnings growth and reasonable P/E ratios.
⚠️ #NCC (pure-play) → solid industry, but above implied fair value.
⚠️ #Acciona → renewables exposure + valuation pressure = overvalued on #PEG.
(2/5)
November 18, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Margin of Safety, Friend or Trap? ⚖️
Here’s the test:
• PEG < 0 → ❌ not measurable
• PEG > 0 → calculate fair value = price ÷ PEG
• Margin of safety = 1 – PEG
In pharma, that means:
➡️ Three companies excluded entirely.
➡️ The rest priced above implied value.
Result? Very little safety!
(3/5)
Here’s the test:
• PEG < 0 → ❌ not measurable
• PEG > 0 → calculate fair value = price ÷ PEG
• Margin of safety = 1 – PEG
In pharma, that means:
➡️ Three companies excluded entirely.
➡️ The rest priced above implied value.
Result? Very little safety!
(3/5)
November 17, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Margin of Safety, Friend or Trap? ⚖️
Here’s the test:
• PEG < 0 → ❌ not measurable
• PEG > 0 → calculate fair value = price ÷ PEG
• Margin of safety = 1 – PEG
In pharma, that means:
➡️ Three companies excluded entirely.
➡️ The rest priced above implied value.
Result? Very little safety!
(3/5)
Here’s the test:
• PEG < 0 → ❌ not measurable
• PEG > 0 → calculate fair value = price ÷ PEG
• Margin of safety = 1 – PEG
In pharma, that means:
➡️ Three companies excluded entirely.
➡️ The rest priced above implied value.
Result? Very little safety!
(3/5)
Company Snapshots 🔍
2024 PEG snapshot:
📈 #NovoNordisk – growth outpacing valuation → undervalued standout.
⚖️ #Novartis, #Merck, #AstraZeneca – growth, but P/Es are sky-high.
🚫 #Sanofi, #GSK, #Ipsen – negative earnings growth = no PEG.
PEG=P/E÷growth → simple in theory, tricky in practice!
(2/5)
2024 PEG snapshot:
📈 #NovoNordisk – growth outpacing valuation → undervalued standout.
⚖️ #Novartis, #Merck, #AstraZeneca – growth, but P/Es are sky-high.
🚫 #Sanofi, #GSK, #Ipsen – negative earnings growth = no PEG.
PEG=P/E÷growth → simple in theory, tricky in practice!
(2/5)
November 17, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Company Snapshots 🔍
2024 PEG snapshot:
📈 #NovoNordisk – growth outpacing valuation → undervalued standout.
⚖️ #Novartis, #Merck, #AstraZeneca – growth, but P/Es are sky-high.
🚫 #Sanofi, #GSK, #Ipsen – negative earnings growth = no PEG.
PEG=P/E÷growth → simple in theory, tricky in practice!
(2/5)
2024 PEG snapshot:
📈 #NovoNordisk – growth outpacing valuation → undervalued standout.
⚖️ #Novartis, #Merck, #AstraZeneca – growth, but P/Es are sky-high.
🚫 #Sanofi, #GSK, #Ipsen – negative earnings growth = no PEG.
PEG=P/E÷growth → simple in theory, tricky in practice!
(2/5)
📊 Tech disruption:
👉 Falling margins rarely happen in isolation. They’re the footprint of disruption.
👉 New entrants are chipping away at legacy models, especially in #ERP, where SAP faces challengers building leaner, modular solutions.
So, adapt fast or fade quietly!
(4/5)
👉 Falling margins rarely happen in isolation. They’re the footprint of disruption.
👉 New entrants are chipping away at legacy models, especially in #ERP, where SAP faces challengers building leaner, modular solutions.
So, adapt fast or fade quietly!
(4/5)
November 13, 2025 at 1:35 PM
📊 Tech disruption:
👉 Falling margins rarely happen in isolation. They’re the footprint of disruption.
👉 New entrants are chipping away at legacy models, especially in #ERP, where SAP faces challengers building leaner, modular solutions.
So, adapt fast or fade quietly!
(4/5)
👉 Falling margins rarely happen in isolation. They’re the footprint of disruption.
👉 New entrants are chipping away at legacy models, especially in #ERP, where SAP faces challengers building leaner, modular solutions.
So, adapt fast or fade quietly!
(4/5)
2020–2024 outcomes:
🟢 #Softcat — margins doubled despite falling revenue; pure cost discipline.
🟢 #Vitec — steady revenue growth and expanding margins.
🔴 #SAP — eroding margins, yet share price still rides #Nasdaq ’s wave.
🟡 #SageGroup — profits under siege; moats shrinking fast.
(2/5)
🟢 #Softcat — margins doubled despite falling revenue; pure cost discipline.
🟢 #Vitec — steady revenue growth and expanding margins.
🔴 #SAP — eroding margins, yet share price still rides #Nasdaq ’s wave.
🟡 #SageGroup — profits under siege; moats shrinking fast.
(2/5)
November 13, 2025 at 1:35 PM
2020–2024 outcomes:
🟢 #Softcat — margins doubled despite falling revenue; pure cost discipline.
🟢 #Vitec — steady revenue growth and expanding margins.
🔴 #SAP — eroding margins, yet share price still rides #Nasdaq ’s wave.
🟡 #SageGroup — profits under siege; moats shrinking fast.
(2/5)
🟢 #Softcat — margins doubled despite falling revenue; pure cost discipline.
🟢 #Vitec — steady revenue growth and expanding margins.
🔴 #SAP — eroding margins, yet share price still rides #Nasdaq ’s wave.
🟡 #SageGroup — profits under siege; moats shrinking fast.
(2/5)
❕ Deeper dive:
Margins are only one thread in the fabric. In fashion, every company passed the EBIT-margin test, none disqualified.
But add #ROIC and #revenuegrowth, and you’ll start to see who’s truly tailoring long-term value.
PS! All puns intended! 🤡
(4/5)
Margins are only one thread in the fabric. In fashion, every company passed the EBIT-margin test, none disqualified.
But add #ROIC and #revenuegrowth, and you’ll start to see who’s truly tailoring long-term value.
PS! All puns intended! 🤡
(4/5)
November 12, 2025 at 9:40 AM
❕ Deeper dive:
Margins are only one thread in the fabric. In fashion, every company passed the EBIT-margin test, none disqualified.
But add #ROIC and #revenuegrowth, and you’ll start to see who’s truly tailoring long-term value.
PS! All puns intended! 🤡
(4/5)
Margins are only one thread in the fabric. In fashion, every company passed the EBIT-margin test, none disqualified.
But add #ROIC and #revenuegrowth, and you’ll start to see who’s truly tailoring long-term value.
PS! All puns intended! 🤡
(4/5)
📊 2020–2024 recap:
🟢 All fashion houses improved EBIT-margins since the COVID low.
📉 2020 was brutal; most saw margins collapse 30–45%.
💎 #Richemont ? Only a -3.7% drop; quiet resilience when others bled.
(2/5)
🟢 All fashion houses improved EBIT-margins since the COVID low.
📉 2020 was brutal; most saw margins collapse 30–45%.
💎 #Richemont ? Only a -3.7% drop; quiet resilience when others bled.
(2/5)
November 12, 2025 at 9:40 AM
📊 2020–2024 recap:
🟢 All fashion houses improved EBIT-margins since the COVID low.
📉 2020 was brutal; most saw margins collapse 30–45%.
💎 #Richemont ? Only a -3.7% drop; quiet resilience when others bled.
(2/5)
🟢 All fashion houses improved EBIT-margins since the COVID low.
📉 2020 was brutal; most saw margins collapse 30–45%.
💎 #Richemont ? Only a -3.7% drop; quiet resilience when others bled.
(2/5)
Peer comparison 👇
High growth ≠ high quality.
In 2020, Acciona led the pack. By 2024, its margin slip cost it that position, while Vinci quietly climbed to best-in-class.
❕Sustained value isn’t about winning one project … it’s about winning five years in a row❕
(4/5)
High growth ≠ high quality.
In 2020, Acciona led the pack. By 2024, its margin slip cost it that position, while Vinci quietly climbed to best-in-class.
❕Sustained value isn’t about winning one project … it’s about winning five years in a row❕
(4/5)
November 11, 2025 at 10:13 AM
Peer comparison 👇
High growth ≠ high quality.
In 2020, Acciona led the pack. By 2024, its margin slip cost it that position, while Vinci quietly climbed to best-in-class.
❕Sustained value isn’t about winning one project … it’s about winning five years in a row❕
(4/5)
High growth ≠ high quality.
In 2020, Acciona led the pack. By 2024, its margin slip cost it that position, while Vinci quietly climbed to best-in-class.
❕Sustained value isn’t about winning one project … it’s about winning five years in a row❕
(4/5)
2020–2024 insights 👇
It’s a mixed bag:
🟢 #Vinci: clear leader with revenue and margins up; a rare combo in this sector.
🟡 #BalfourBeatty: improved efficiency, but razor-thin margins leave no safety net.
🔴 #Acciona: margins slipping, renewables volatility hitting hard.
(2/5)
It’s a mixed bag:
🟢 #Vinci: clear leader with revenue and margins up; a rare combo in this sector.
🟡 #BalfourBeatty: improved efficiency, but razor-thin margins leave no safety net.
🔴 #Acciona: margins slipping, renewables volatility hitting hard.
(2/5)
November 11, 2025 at 10:13 AM
2020–2024 insights 👇
It’s a mixed bag:
🟢 #Vinci: clear leader with revenue and margins up; a rare combo in this sector.
🟡 #BalfourBeatty: improved efficiency, but razor-thin margins leave no safety net.
🔴 #Acciona: margins slipping, renewables volatility hitting hard.
(2/5)
It’s a mixed bag:
🟢 #Vinci: clear leader with revenue and margins up; a rare combo in this sector.
🟡 #BalfourBeatty: improved efficiency, but razor-thin margins leave no safety net.
🔴 #Acciona: margins slipping, renewables volatility hitting hard.
(2/5)
Cross-metric view:
When you layer #revenuegrowth with margin trends, clarity emerges:
🏃 Novo Nordisk and AstraZeneca lead the pack.
📈 Sanofi and Ipsen show growth, but at the cost of profitability.
Next steps ➡️ testing if #ROIC and #PEG can explain (or redeem) those gaps.
(4/5)
When you layer #revenuegrowth with margin trends, clarity emerges:
🏃 Novo Nordisk and AstraZeneca lead the pack.
📈 Sanofi and Ipsen show growth, but at the cost of profitability.
Next steps ➡️ testing if #ROIC and #PEG can explain (or redeem) those gaps.
(4/5)
November 10, 2025 at 8:38 AM
Cross-metric view:
When you layer #revenuegrowth with margin trends, clarity emerges:
🏃 Novo Nordisk and AstraZeneca lead the pack.
📈 Sanofi and Ipsen show growth, but at the cost of profitability.
Next steps ➡️ testing if #ROIC and #PEG can explain (or redeem) those gaps.
(4/5)
When you layer #revenuegrowth with margin trends, clarity emerges:
🏃 Novo Nordisk and AstraZeneca lead the pack.
📈 Sanofi and Ipsen show growth, but at the cost of profitability.
Next steps ➡️ testing if #ROIC and #PEG can explain (or redeem) those gaps.
(4/5)
2020–2024 results:
The picture splits sharply:
🟢 #Novartis: strong margin gains, signaling real efficiency wins.
🟡 #NovoNordisk: rare balance of high growth and stable margins.
🔴 #Sanofi, #GSK, #Ipsen: margin erosion despite growth.
⚪ #AstraZeneca & #Merck: steady on both fronts.
(2/5)
The picture splits sharply:
🟢 #Novartis: strong margin gains, signaling real efficiency wins.
🟡 #NovoNordisk: rare balance of high growth and stable margins.
🔴 #Sanofi, #GSK, #Ipsen: margin erosion despite growth.
⚪ #AstraZeneca & #Merck: steady on both fronts.
(2/5)
November 10, 2025 at 8:38 AM
2020–2024 results:
The picture splits sharply:
🟢 #Novartis: strong margin gains, signaling real efficiency wins.
🟡 #NovoNordisk: rare balance of high growth and stable margins.
🔴 #Sanofi, #GSK, #Ipsen: margin erosion despite growth.
⚪ #AstraZeneca & #Merck: steady on both fronts.
(2/5)
The picture splits sharply:
🟢 #Novartis: strong margin gains, signaling real efficiency wins.
🟡 #NovoNordisk: rare balance of high growth and stable margins.
🔴 #Sanofi, #GSK, #Ipsen: margin erosion despite growth.
⚪ #AstraZeneca & #Merck: steady on both fronts.
(2/5)
And the screener plot thickens ... 🔎
This week on #thebarnblog we add #EBITmargin to our screener series: open.substack.com/pub/thebarnb...
Remember: we're all about consistency in performance rather than short bursts of growth!
#valueinvesting #financialanalysis #markets
This week on #thebarnblog we add #EBITmargin to our screener series: open.substack.com/pub/thebarnb...
Remember: we're all about consistency in performance rather than short bursts of growth!
#valueinvesting #financialanalysis #markets
November 7, 2025 at 1:15 PM
And the screener plot thickens ... 🔎
This week on #thebarnblog we add #EBITmargin to our screener series: open.substack.com/pub/thebarnb...
Remember: we're all about consistency in performance rather than short bursts of growth!
#valueinvesting #financialanalysis #markets
This week on #thebarnblog we add #EBITmargin to our screener series: open.substack.com/pub/thebarnb...
Remember: we're all about consistency in performance rather than short bursts of growth!
#valueinvesting #financialanalysis #markets
2015-2019 performance 📊:
#Temenos thrived in the earlier period, but growth slowed or reversed for many in 2020-2024. Vitec, however, has sustained strong performance throughout.
(4/5)
#Temenos thrived in the earlier period, but growth slowed or reversed for many in 2020-2024. Vitec, however, has sustained strong performance throughout.
(4/5)
November 6, 2025 at 8:59 AM
2015-2019 performance 📊:
#Temenos thrived in the earlier period, but growth slowed or reversed for many in 2020-2024. Vitec, however, has sustained strong performance throughout.
(4/5)
#Temenos thrived in the earlier period, but growth slowed or reversed for many in 2020-2024. Vitec, however, has sustained strong performance throughout.
(4/5)
2015-2019 performance:
Before diversification, Acciona’s revenue growth was a modest 2.4%.
Meanwhile, #Strabag delivered stable, low growth in both periods, showing that consistency can also yield solid share price gains over time.
(4/5)
Before diversification, Acciona’s revenue growth was a modest 2.4%.
Meanwhile, #Strabag delivered stable, low growth in both periods, showing that consistency can also yield solid share price gains over time.
(4/5)
November 4, 2025 at 9:12 AM
2015-2019 performance:
Before diversification, Acciona’s revenue growth was a modest 2.4%.
Meanwhile, #Strabag delivered stable, low growth in both periods, showing that consistency can also yield solid share price gains over time.
(4/5)
Before diversification, Acciona’s revenue growth was a modest 2.4%.
Meanwhile, #Strabag delivered stable, low growth in both periods, showing that consistency can also yield solid share price gains over time.
(4/5)
2015-2019 performance:
Looking back, GSK led the pack, and AstraZeneca actually had negative growth.
This reversal highlights how past performance isn’t always predictive, but spotting trend shifts early can be very powerful.
(4/5)
Looking back, GSK led the pack, and AstraZeneca actually had negative growth.
This reversal highlights how past performance isn’t always predictive, but spotting trend shifts early can be very powerful.
(4/5)
November 3, 2025 at 8:13 AM
2015-2019 performance:
Looking back, GSK led the pack, and AstraZeneca actually had negative growth.
This reversal highlights how past performance isn’t always predictive, but spotting trend shifts early can be very powerful.
(4/5)
Looking back, GSK led the pack, and AstraZeneca actually had negative growth.
This reversal highlights how past performance isn’t always predictive, but spotting trend shifts early can be very powerful.
(4/5)
2020-2024 performance:
In this period, #NovoNordisk and #AstraZeneca clearly outpaced their peers.
#GSK and #Novartis, meanwhile, struggled to expand their toplines.
The graph shows a sharp divide, with only a couple of true standouts.
(2/5)
In this period, #NovoNordisk and #AstraZeneca clearly outpaced their peers.
#GSK and #Novartis, meanwhile, struggled to expand their toplines.
The graph shows a sharp divide, with only a couple of true standouts.
(2/5)
November 3, 2025 at 8:13 AM
2020-2024 performance:
In this period, #NovoNordisk and #AstraZeneca clearly outpaced their peers.
#GSK and #Novartis, meanwhile, struggled to expand their toplines.
The graph shows a sharp divide, with only a couple of true standouts.
(2/5)
In this period, #NovoNordisk and #AstraZeneca clearly outpaced their peers.
#GSK and #Novartis, meanwhile, struggled to expand their toplines.
The graph shows a sharp divide, with only a couple of true standouts.
(2/5)
#Pharma builds moats. #Construction rides cycles. #Fashion refines quality. #Tech fuels growth.
📢 The screener series is here: 4 industries, numerous companies, 4 metrics, beautiful graphs!
Meet the industries: open.substack.com/pub/thebarnb...
#investing #valueinvesting #FindItFinancials
📢 The screener series is here: 4 industries, numerous companies, 4 metrics, beautiful graphs!
Meet the industries: open.substack.com/pub/thebarnb...
#investing #valueinvesting #FindItFinancials
October 24, 2025 at 12:57 PM
#Pharma builds moats. #Construction rides cycles. #Fashion refines quality. #Tech fuels growth.
📢 The screener series is here: 4 industries, numerous companies, 4 metrics, beautiful graphs!
Meet the industries: open.substack.com/pub/thebarnb...
#investing #valueinvesting #FindItFinancials
📢 The screener series is here: 4 industries, numerous companies, 4 metrics, beautiful graphs!
Meet the industries: open.substack.com/pub/thebarnb...
#investing #valueinvesting #FindItFinancials