@testotestotesto.bsky.social
Preeminent center-right commentator of Bluesky.
Dem voters are giddy at these polling results but President Gavin Newsom is going to have zero plan to resolve this and will be dealing with cratering popularity in the fall of 2029.
Their best hope is Congress passes bipartisan supply-side reforms in 2026-28
Their best hope is Congress passes bipartisan supply-side reforms in 2026-28
December 23, 2025 at 5:42 AM
Dem voters are giddy at these polling results but President Gavin Newsom is going to have zero plan to resolve this and will be dealing with cratering popularity in the fall of 2029.
Their best hope is Congress passes bipartisan supply-side reforms in 2026-28
Their best hope is Congress passes bipartisan supply-side reforms in 2026-28
Very high wage growth but obliteration of social capital would be a significant welfare loss but register minimal impact on GDP/unemployment/inflation. Given the timing of covid it could explain the vibecession.
December 23, 2025 at 5:01 AM
Very high wage growth but obliteration of social capital would be a significant welfare loss but register minimal impact on GDP/unemployment/inflation. Given the timing of covid it could explain the vibecession.
IRL social networks are experiencing the same kind of disruption by social media that the pre-ACA individual market experienced from shitty low premium plans.
Humans are hyperbolic discounters. Hard to convince them the cost of socializing is worth it when the payoff is deferred.
Humans are hyperbolic discounters. Hard to convince them the cost of socializing is worth it when the payoff is deferred.
December 23, 2025 at 4:59 AM
IRL social networks are experiencing the same kind of disruption by social media that the pre-ACA individual market experienced from shitty low premium plans.
Humans are hyperbolic discounters. Hard to convince them the cost of socializing is worth it when the payoff is deferred.
Humans are hyperbolic discounters. Hard to convince them the cost of socializing is worth it when the payoff is deferred.
Social networks provide a host of services (friends helping you move, relationship advice, parents providing childcare, etc) that are costly to replicate in the market. But they demand reciprocal obligations & so tempting to "self-insure".
Social media is causing an adverse selection death spiral
Social media is causing an adverse selection death spiral
December 23, 2025 at 4:52 AM
Social networks provide a host of services (friends helping you move, relationship advice, parents providing childcare, etc) that are costly to replicate in the market. But they demand reciprocal obligations & so tempting to "self-insure".
Social media is causing an adverse selection death spiral
Social media is causing an adverse selection death spiral
People frame the phones issue in terms of psychological harm, but IMO social capital is best seen as a bundle of insurance-like services with no market analogues. Internet-induced antisociality is making us literally economically poorer in a way that economic aggregates don't capture.
December 23, 2025 at 4:48 AM
People frame the phones issue in terms of psychological harm, but IMO social capital is best seen as a bundle of insurance-like services with no market analogues. Internet-induced antisociality is making us literally economically poorer in a way that economic aggregates don't capture.
Or that coverage is already >90% in the US. Expanding Medicaid in the non-expansion states and ratcheting up the individual mandate penalty until most young healthy people purchase ACA plans would be sufficient to get us to ~100% coverage even within our chimeric system.
December 22, 2025 at 11:49 PM
Or that coverage is already >90% in the US. Expanding Medicaid in the non-expansion states and ratcheting up the individual mandate penalty until most young healthy people purchase ACA plans would be sufficient to get us to ~100% coverage even within our chimeric system.
Since shareholders are residual claimants, maximizing shareholder value is usually equivalent to optimizing how efficiently to convert input to output.
Much easier to keep managers in line with a simple criterion than if they're being judged on optimizing a multiprincipal/multitask problem.
Much easier to keep managers in line with a simple criterion than if they're being judged on optimizing a multiprincipal/multitask problem.
December 22, 2025 at 10:26 PM
Since shareholders are residual claimants, maximizing shareholder value is usually equivalent to optimizing how efficiently to convert input to output.
Much easier to keep managers in line with a simple criterion than if they're being judged on optimizing a multiprincipal/multitask problem.
Much easier to keep managers in line with a simple criterion than if they're being judged on optimizing a multiprincipal/multitask problem.
Also the reason for-profit corporations dominate economic production is because they resolve internal principal-agent problems far more effectively than any other corporate form
Public interest mandates/stakeholder capitalism rarely works because they explode the space for managerial discretion
Public interest mandates/stakeholder capitalism rarely works because they explode the space for managerial discretion
December 22, 2025 at 10:18 PM
Also the reason for-profit corporations dominate economic production is because they resolve internal principal-agent problems far more effectively than any other corporate form
Public interest mandates/stakeholder capitalism rarely works because they explode the space for managerial discretion
Public interest mandates/stakeholder capitalism rarely works because they explode the space for managerial discretion
This is all due to the malign influence of Rousseau. If humanity is angelic in a state of nature, any selfish or improvident behavior must be caused by Society.
This is also why far-left groups can't build functional institutions: they have no working model for human motivation and incentives.
This is also why far-left groups can't build functional institutions: they have no working model for human motivation and incentives.
December 22, 2025 at 10:09 PM
This is all due to the malign influence of Rousseau. If humanity is angelic in a state of nature, any selfish or improvident behavior must be caused by Society.
This is also why far-left groups can't build functional institutions: they have no working model for human motivation and incentives.
This is also why far-left groups can't build functional institutions: they have no working model for human motivation and incentives.
I'd argue this stems from Rousseau. The left believes humans are perfectly benevolent in a state of nature so any example of selfish or improvident behavior must be socially constructed.
December 22, 2025 at 10:00 PM
I'd argue this stems from Rousseau. The left believes humans are perfectly benevolent in a state of nature so any example of selfish or improvident behavior must be socially constructed.
The US has many functional institutions, yes, and nihilism about our institutions/lack of understanding how they work is why the left is unable to build a credible alternative.
December 22, 2025 at 9:48 PM
The US has many functional institutions, yes, and nihilism about our institutions/lack of understanding how they work is why the left is unable to build a credible alternative.
The fact that education is a merit good and can only really be justified in a behavioral econ framework is why Dems used to do so well on this issue. But leveling down-style egalitarianism has eroded their advantage in recent years.
December 22, 2025 at 8:17 PM
The fact that education is a merit good and can only really be justified in a behavioral econ framework is why Dems used to do so well on this issue. But leveling down-style egalitarianism has eroded their advantage in recent years.
The sad reality is a shockingly high percentage of parents, even high SES ones, don't care about education per se. They care more about their kid getting into a prestigious school and doing better than the competition than the kid actually learning anything.
December 22, 2025 at 8:16 PM
The sad reality is a shockingly high percentage of parents, even high SES ones, don't care about education per se. They care more about their kid getting into a prestigious school and doing better than the competition than the kid actually learning anything.
It's underdiscussed that the IRA was the moment the climate change movement died because legacy enviro groups realized that doing something about climate change would ultimately require dismantling the Suing Infrastructure Projects Industrial Complex
December 22, 2025 at 8:11 PM
It's underdiscussed that the IRA was the moment the climate change movement died because legacy enviro groups realized that doing something about climate change would ultimately require dismantling the Suing Infrastructure Projects Industrial Complex
Blue state Dems try to sell coastal metros on explicitly elitist grounds - uber high productivity jobs, urbanism, prestigious colleges, cultural amenities.
Meanwhile the sunbelt's pitch of cheap cost of living is hoovering up every blue collar worker in the country lol
Meanwhile the sunbelt's pitch of cheap cost of living is hoovering up every blue collar worker in the country lol
December 22, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Blue state Dems try to sell coastal metros on explicitly elitist grounds - uber high productivity jobs, urbanism, prestigious colleges, cultural amenities.
Meanwhile the sunbelt's pitch of cheap cost of living is hoovering up every blue collar worker in the country lol
Meanwhile the sunbelt's pitch of cheap cost of living is hoovering up every blue collar worker in the country lol
An underrated issue is that the liberal aversion to kitsch and consumer slopulism, while great for art & culture, is terrible for mass politics.
Utopia for normies is cheap exurban housing, an F-150, and a seven lane highway to a giant Walmart supercenter.
Utopia for normies is cheap exurban housing, an F-150, and a seven lane highway to a giant Walmart supercenter.
December 22, 2025 at 8:04 PM
An underrated issue is that the liberal aversion to kitsch and consumer slopulism, while great for art & culture, is terrible for mass politics.
Utopia for normies is cheap exurban housing, an F-150, and a seven lane highway to a giant Walmart supercenter.
Utopia for normies is cheap exurban housing, an F-150, and a seven lane highway to a giant Walmart supercenter.
This approach worked wonders at deterring the rise of far right nationalism in the US lmao
December 22, 2025 at 8:01 PM
This approach worked wonders at deterring the rise of far right nationalism in the US lmao
The best way to improve one's debate skills and understanding of the world is to go 'behind enemy lines' into spaces where you are outnumbered & have no discursive power. Ofc if those with discursive power are totally unrestrained it gets unpleasant real quick, hence the value of neutral moderation.
December 22, 2025 at 6:24 PM
The best way to improve one's debate skills and understanding of the world is to go 'behind enemy lines' into spaces where you are outnumbered & have no discursive power. Ofc if those with discursive power are totally unrestrained it gets unpleasant real quick, hence the value of neutral moderation.
There's an inverse relationship between discourse power and argumentative quality. The big lefty accounts on here are effective at riling up mobs so there's no need to get better at honest debate.
Problem is once they step out of this space they're unprepared for even basic center-right args.
Problem is once they step out of this space they're unprepared for even basic center-right args.
December 22, 2025 at 6:21 PM
There's an inverse relationship between discourse power and argumentative quality. The big lefty accounts on here are effective at riling up mobs so there's no need to get better at honest debate.
Problem is once they step out of this space they're unprepared for even basic center-right args.
Problem is once they step out of this space they're unprepared for even basic center-right args.
This discussion is evidence that every ideological faction in America is ultimately some flavor of libertarian. Instead of building functional institutions with clear rules, the left would rather build a discursive ancap hell that allows the deeply maladjusted an equal say.
December 22, 2025 at 6:16 PM
This discussion is evidence that every ideological faction in America is ultimately some flavor of libertarian. Instead of building functional institutions with clear rules, the left would rather build a discursive ancap hell that allows the deeply maladjusted an equal say.
It has become passé but learning how to debate contentious issues without succumbing to emotion is an incredibly valuable skill.
Most of these guys would fail an ideological Turing test. If you can't model conservative arguments correctly, you're not going to be able to refute them.
Most of these guys would fail an ideological Turing test. If you can't model conservative arguments correctly, you're not going to be able to refute them.
December 22, 2025 at 6:03 PM
It has become passé but learning how to debate contentious issues without succumbing to emotion is an incredibly valuable skill.
Most of these guys would fail an ideological Turing test. If you can't model conservative arguments correctly, you're not going to be able to refute them.
Most of these guys would fail an ideological Turing test. If you can't model conservative arguments correctly, you're not going to be able to refute them.
There's a game theoretic frame here where in the absence of neutral rules-based moderation, users will try to 'moderate' bad behavior via maximalist flame wars, leading to a Hobbesian war of all against all. You need a Leviathan to deter defection.
December 22, 2025 at 5:57 PM
There's a game theoretic frame here where in the absence of neutral rules-based moderation, users will try to 'moderate' bad behavior via maximalist flame wars, leading to a Hobbesian war of all against all. You need a Leviathan to deter defection.
The internet is a fundamentally unserious place because algorithimic feeds ensure the stupidest, most caricatured version of any ideology or concept floats to the top.
There is no philosophical worldview that won't ultimately become a parody of itself in our overfitted world.
There is no philosophical worldview that won't ultimately become a parody of itself in our overfitted world.
December 22, 2025 at 5:39 PM
The internet is a fundamentally unserious place because algorithimic feeds ensure the stupidest, most caricatured version of any ideology or concept floats to the top.
There is no philosophical worldview that won't ultimately become a parody of itself in our overfitted world.
There is no philosophical worldview that won't ultimately become a parody of itself in our overfitted world.
It's not the OP's fault that a bunch of clout junkies with poor emotional self-control and questionable reading comprehension skills misinterpreted a plain english statement. Perhaps if they were less quick to adopt extreme emotional reactions they wouldn't have made that mistake?
December 22, 2025 at 2:14 AM
It's not the OP's fault that a bunch of clout junkies with poor emotional self-control and questionable reading comprehension skills misinterpreted a plain english statement. Perhaps if they were less quick to adopt extreme emotional reactions they wouldn't have made that mistake?
A lot of the benefits of social capital are real but hard to quantify. Relationship advice, friends helping you move, job referrals, parents helping with childcare. A world where incomes are higher but those services are no longer available would certainly feel more precarious.
December 21, 2025 at 9:37 PM
A lot of the benefits of social capital are real but hard to quantify. Relationship advice, friends helping you move, job referrals, parents helping with childcare. A world where incomes are higher but those services are no longer available would certainly feel more precarious.