Ted Hoffman's Actuarials
@tedhoffman.bsky.social
Guy who does the actuarials on stuff. Also does analytics, not "teh analytics." Follows weather for a hobby. Ascended in Nethack twice. Defeated the arcade game Gauntlet. Probably other stuff you don't care about either. Pretty funny for an actuary.
Did Trump's 2025 Monroe Doctrine have a Russian exception, or was there other wiggle room in it for Russia to establish a foothold in South American and expand its influence so it could push back against the U.S. whenever it felt like.
Asking for a friend, by the way.
Asking for a friend, by the way.
December 11, 2025 at 3:46 PM
Did Trump's 2025 Monroe Doctrine have a Russian exception, or was there other wiggle room in it for Russia to establish a foothold in South American and expand its influence so it could push back against the U.S. whenever it felt like.
Asking for a friend, by the way.
Asking for a friend, by the way.
Doing American tech giveaways to China the right way.
By Ezra Klein
By Ezra Klein
December 11, 2025 at 1:34 AM
Doing American tech giveaways to China the right way.
By Ezra Klein
By Ezra Klein
Not until you explain your entire evil plot and answer all my questions, like a villain who posts a selfie in front of Big Ben would do.
December 10, 2025 at 8:07 PM
Not until you explain your entire evil plot and answer all my questions, like a villain who posts a selfie in front of Big Ben would do.
100% this. Then throw on their ability to [ab]use the justice system to extract money out of patients, collecting amounts *far* above what the patient originally owed that condemn those patients to debt purgatory, among other things they do that drive prices higher at the expense of the public.
December 10, 2025 at 2:46 PM
100% this. Then throw on their ability to [ab]use the justice system to extract money out of patients, collecting amounts *far* above what the patient originally owed that condemn those patients to debt purgatory, among other things they do that drive prices higher at the expense of the public.
If you never ask "is this doing what I want, is this giving me something I can act on" you end up with statistics porn, which can lead you to being right [great talent] for the wrong reasons [analytics would be crap, except that talent's covering it up].
Way too many people are falling for this.
Way too many people are falling for this.
December 9, 2025 at 9:39 PM
If you never ask "is this doing what I want, is this giving me something I can act on" you end up with statistics porn, which can lead you to being right [great talent] for the wrong reasons [analytics would be crap, except that talent's covering it up].
Way too many people are falling for this.
Way too many people are falling for this.
Obviously no one who thinks they have an advantage is going to test that out, but it's *really* important to tease out "analytically superior because the talent is superior" from "analytically superior *and* gives an actionable message that allows for a competitive advantage."
December 9, 2025 at 9:37 PM
Obviously no one who thinks they have an advantage is going to test that out, but it's *really* important to tease out "analytically superior because the talent is superior" from "analytically superior *and* gives an actionable message that allows for a competitive advantage."
That said, teams with "really good" analytics also seem to be the ones with "really good talent" which begs the question: is the talent making the analytics look great?
Put differently: if you took those analytic tools and applied them to a mid-level team, would that team have better results?
Put differently: if you took those analytic tools and applied them to a mid-level team, would that team have better results?
December 9, 2025 at 9:35 PM
That said, teams with "really good" analytics also seem to be the ones with "really good talent" which begs the question: is the talent making the analytics look great?
Put differently: if you took those analytic tools and applied them to a mid-level team, would that team have better results?
Put differently: if you took those analytic tools and applied them to a mid-level team, would that team have better results?
So much of this boils down to two simple questions that virtually no one who's interested in analytics ever asks:
1. What are you trying to accomplish?
2. All this data and all these stats, ... what do I do with it?
That's why much of this is what I call "teh analytics" - because it does neither.
1. What are you trying to accomplish?
2. All this data and all these stats, ... what do I do with it?
That's why much of this is what I call "teh analytics" - because it does neither.
December 9, 2025 at 9:34 PM
So much of this boils down to two simple questions that virtually no one who's interested in analytics ever asks:
1. What are you trying to accomplish?
2. All this data and all these stats, ... what do I do with it?
That's why much of this is what I call "teh analytics" - because it does neither.
1. What are you trying to accomplish?
2. All this data and all these stats, ... what do I do with it?
That's why much of this is what I call "teh analytics" - because it does neither.
How does it happen? There are *a number* of content, coddled players on the roster who've been taught over the years that when it's finally time for someone to pay for the sins of the organization, Armstrong's sins, it's going to be the head coach that pays that price.
Every.
Single.
Time.
Every.
Single.
Time.
December 6, 2025 at 3:37 AM
How does it happen? There are *a number* of content, coddled players on the roster who've been taught over the years that when it's finally time for someone to pay for the sins of the organization, Armstrong's sins, it's going to be the head coach that pays that price.
Every.
Single.
Time.
Every.
Single.
Time.
It's still better than the abomination the Blues use for their goal song, which the front office and way too many fans think couldn't be any better.
December 5, 2025 at 11:32 AM
It's still better than the abomination the Blues use for their goal song, which the front office and way too many fans think couldn't be any better.
We need to be buyers here; strike now while no one is suspecting, before everyone else starts assessing needs and making moves to get into position to ...
... just kidding. Don't try to be cute with another 're-' synonym to avoid calling it a rebuild. This is a bad team.
Burn it down.
... just kidding. Don't try to be cute with another 're-' synonym to avoid calling it a rebuild. This is a bad team.
Burn it down.
December 5, 2025 at 3:03 AM
We need to be buyers here; strike now while no one is suspecting, before everyone else starts assessing needs and making moves to get into position to ...
... just kidding. Don't try to be cute with another 're-' synonym to avoid calling it a rebuild. This is a bad team.
Burn it down.
... just kidding. Don't try to be cute with another 're-' synonym to avoid calling it a rebuild. This is a bad team.
Burn it down.
I have no words for this team that will fit in 300 characters.
December 5, 2025 at 1:47 AM
I have no words for this team that will fit in 300 characters.
Cue 967 point system ideas that I'll ignore, but the fact is if you really want to fix this, quit treating regular season wins as equal regardless of when they happen.
The OTL [it's really a OTW] isn't the problem. It's incentivizing teams to win post-regulation instead of getting it done in 60.
The OTL [it's really a OTW] isn't the problem. It's incentivizing teams to win post-regulation instead of getting it done in 60.
December 4, 2025 at 7:40 PM
Cue 967 point system ideas that I'll ignore, but the fact is if you really want to fix this, quit treating regular season wins as equal regardless of when they happen.
The OTL [it's really a OTW] isn't the problem. It's incentivizing teams to win post-regulation instead of getting it done in 60.
The OTL [it's really a OTW] isn't the problem. It's incentivizing teams to win post-regulation instead of getting it done in 60.
Next we'll hear about bringing back the Ford Pinto back, with the gas tank outside the frame so when it gets hit from behind there's a chance the gas tank explodes and kills everyone inside.
If that's not real American freedom and a return to the good old days, I don't know what is.
If that's not real American freedom and a return to the good old days, I don't know what is.
December 4, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Next we'll hear about bringing back the Ford Pinto back, with the gas tank outside the frame so when it gets hit from behind there's a chance the gas tank explodes and kills everyone inside.
If that's not real American freedom and a return to the good old days, I don't know what is.
If that's not real American freedom and a return to the good old days, I don't know what is.
Things that are simultaneously true:
* Sean is 100% right
* Sean is still a piece of shit
* Sean is 100% right
* Sean is still a piece of shit
December 3, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Things that are simultaneously true:
* Sean is 100% right
* Sean is still a piece of shit
* Sean is 100% right
* Sean is still a piece of shit
Probably, but at the moment I'm looking at this from the "everyone knows something is horribly wrong, no one does anything about it so he continues in power" angle.
If/when DJT does it, the mental gymnastics his followers do to argue it's no big deal will be fascinating to watch.
If/when DJT does it, the mental gymnastics his followers do to argue it's no big deal will be fascinating to watch.
December 1, 2025 at 5:06 AM
Probably, but at the moment I'm looking at this from the "everyone knows something is horribly wrong, no one does anything about it so he continues in power" angle.
If/when DJT does it, the mental gymnastics his followers do to argue it's no big deal will be fascinating to watch.
If/when DJT does it, the mental gymnastics his followers do to argue it's no big deal will be fascinating to watch.
I'm hoping we have a King George III "babbling nonsense nonstop for hours on end" moment soon.
December 1, 2025 at 2:39 AM
I'm hoping we have a King George III "babbling nonsense nonstop for hours on end" moment soon.
I'm holding out for the model with AI that generates food so I never have to go to the store again.
In the meantime, my remaining food is outside in the snow and I'm making a list of local restaurants to scavenge from when they close for the night.
In the meantime, my remaining food is outside in the snow and I'm making a list of local restaurants to scavenge from when they close for the night.
November 30, 2025 at 9:51 PM
I'm holding out for the model with AI that generates food so I never have to go to the store again.
In the meantime, my remaining food is outside in the snow and I'm making a list of local restaurants to scavenge from when they close for the night.
In the meantime, my remaining food is outside in the snow and I'm making a list of local restaurants to scavenge from when they close for the night.
The problem with OT [and the shootout ... and a lot of things in business] is that no one bothers to ask a basic question:
Ideally, how/when do we want a hockey game to finish?
Until that gets asked and answered, every "new" idea to "fix" the "problem" is merely a solution in search of a problem.
Ideally, how/when do we want a hockey game to finish?
Until that gets asked and answered, every "new" idea to "fix" the "problem" is merely a solution in search of a problem.
November 28, 2025 at 3:05 PM
The problem with OT [and the shootout ... and a lot of things in business] is that no one bothers to ask a basic question:
Ideally, how/when do we want a hockey game to finish?
Until that gets asked and answered, every "new" idea to "fix" the "problem" is merely a solution in search of a problem.
Ideally, how/when do we want a hockey game to finish?
Until that gets asked and answered, every "new" idea to "fix" the "problem" is merely a solution in search of a problem.
In theory: yes, their job is to do what you describe.
In practice: fuck no, it's whoever can shove their nose up an executive's ass the farthest that moves up the corporate ladder. All the rhetoric about treating direct reports well and showing respect? Complete bullshit; that's not how it works.
In practice: fuck no, it's whoever can shove their nose up an executive's ass the farthest that moves up the corporate ladder. All the rhetoric about treating direct reports well and showing respect? Complete bullshit; that's not how it works.
November 28, 2025 at 2:35 AM
In theory: yes, their job is to do what you describe.
In practice: fuck no, it's whoever can shove their nose up an executive's ass the farthest that moves up the corporate ladder. All the rhetoric about treating direct reports well and showing respect? Complete bullshit; that's not how it works.
In practice: fuck no, it's whoever can shove their nose up an executive's ass the farthest that moves up the corporate ladder. All the rhetoric about treating direct reports well and showing respect? Complete bullshit; that's not how it works.