Thanassis Cambanis
@tcambanis.bsky.social
Director of @CenturyIntl, senior fellow @TCFdotorg.
Books: Iraq war (forthcoming), Once Upon a Revolution, Shia Power, Hezbollah, Hybrid Actors, Citizenship & Discontents.
Books: Iraq war (forthcoming), Once Upon a Revolution, Shia Power, Hezbollah, Hybrid Actors, Citizenship & Discontents.
An opportunistic alliance of those who oppose forever war can power a U.S. foreign policy based on values and diplomacy rather than endless military intervention.
3/3
New analysis from @eamonka.bsky.social @tcambanis.bsky.social at @centuryintl.bsky.social
tcf.org/content/comm...
3/3
New analysis from @eamonka.bsky.social @tcambanis.bsky.social at @centuryintl.bsky.social
tcf.org/content/comm...
America Can Still Escape Disaster in Iran
It was just a month ago that Donald Trump bombed Iran against the advice of his own intelligence services and claimed that the country’s nuclear
tcf.org
August 5, 2025 at 4:26 PM
An opportunistic alliance of those who oppose forever war can power a U.S. foreign policy based on values and diplomacy rather than endless military intervention.
3/3
New analysis from @eamonka.bsky.social @tcambanis.bsky.social at @centuryintl.bsky.social
tcf.org/content/comm...
3/3
New analysis from @eamonka.bsky.social @tcambanis.bsky.social at @centuryintl.bsky.social
tcf.org/content/comm...
Trump’s attack on Iran revealed common ground between MAGA anti-interventionists and pro-diplomacy progressives—a possible first step toward a better U.S. foreign policy.
2/3
2/3
August 5, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Trump’s attack on Iran revealed common ground between MAGA anti-interventionists and pro-diplomacy progressives—a possible first step toward a better U.S. foreign policy.
2/3
2/3
“America First” foreign policy centers on dominance and big-dollar deals for the Trump Organization or the US.
CI fellows analyze the president’s MENA trip
@rohanadvani.bsky.social @aronlund.bsky.social
@abujamajem.com @tcambanis.bsky.social @dahliasc.bsky.social
tcf.org/content/comm...
CI fellows analyze the president’s MENA trip
@rohanadvani.bsky.social @aronlund.bsky.social
@abujamajem.com @tcambanis.bsky.social @dahliasc.bsky.social
tcf.org/content/comm...
Roundtable: Trump’s Middle East Transactions
Century International: President Donald J. Trump showcased his signature foreign policy style on his Middle East tour last week, revealing as much as
tcf.org
May 21, 2025 at 2:43 PM
“America First” foreign policy centers on dominance and big-dollar deals for the Trump Organization or the US.
CI fellows analyze the president’s MENA trip
@rohanadvani.bsky.social @aronlund.bsky.social
@abujamajem.com @tcambanis.bsky.social @dahliasc.bsky.social
tcf.org/content/comm...
CI fellows analyze the president’s MENA trip
@rohanadvani.bsky.social @aronlund.bsky.social
@abujamajem.com @tcambanis.bsky.social @dahliasc.bsky.social
tcf.org/content/comm...
Lots of other powerful ideas in this @dawnmenaorg.bsky.social roundtable.
dawnmena.org/the-threats-...
dawnmena.org/the-threats-...
The Threats to Syria’s Political Transition: A Democracy in Exile Roundtable
The euphoria that erupted across Syria after the sudden fall of the Assad regime in early December has since given way to harsh realities—of sectarian violence, the dual traumas of a 14-year civil war...
dawnmena.org
April 8, 2025 at 2:27 AM
Lots of other powerful ideas in this @dawnmenaorg.bsky.social roundtable.
dawnmena.org/the-threats-...
dawnmena.org/the-threats-...
New commentary on what Signalgate and the latest Yemen raids reveal about a security policy that’s for sale.
@tcambanis.bsky.social @peterjsalisbury.bsky.social @centuryintl.bsky.social
tcf.org/content/comm...
@tcambanis.bsky.social @peterjsalisbury.bsky.social @centuryintl.bsky.social
tcf.org/content/comm...
Texting Military Plans Is Bad. American Policy in Yemen Is Worse.
Since news broke that Trump administration officials shared details of military strikes on Yemen via a group chat that included The Atlantic’s Jeffrey
tcf.org
April 1, 2025 at 9:26 PM
New commentary on what Signalgate and the latest Yemen raids reveal about a security policy that’s for sale.
@tcambanis.bsky.social @peterjsalisbury.bsky.social @centuryintl.bsky.social
tcf.org/content/comm...
@tcambanis.bsky.social @peterjsalisbury.bsky.social @centuryintl.bsky.social
tcf.org/content/comm...
The Idlib rebel now in charge of Sayida Zaynab encapsulated confidence of the new order: “I am not afraid," he told me. "We will build a state, and people will get their rights.”
Read my full dispatch @centuryintl.bsky.social
tcf.org/content/comm...
7/7
Read my full dispatch @centuryintl.bsky.social
tcf.org/content/comm...
7/7
Damascus Dispatch: Fear and Hope in a Divided Syria
The new masters of Sayida Zaynab, a famous Shia shrine in the countryside outside Damascus, strode with confidence across the nearly empty marble
tcf.org
March 18, 2025 at 6:01 PM
The Idlib rebel now in charge of Sayida Zaynab encapsulated confidence of the new order: “I am not afraid," he told me. "We will build a state, and people will get their rights.”
Read my full dispatch @centuryintl.bsky.social
tcf.org/content/comm...
7/7
Read my full dispatch @centuryintl.bsky.social
tcf.org/content/comm...
7/7
Relief at Assad’s fall is palpable and widespread.
Assad's regime caused exponentially greater harm than atrocities by ISIS or rebel groups.
Those who suffered under Assad might have considerable patience for mistakes and bad judgment by Syria’s new rulers.
6/7
Assad's regime caused exponentially greater harm than atrocities by ISIS or rebel groups.
Those who suffered under Assad might have considerable patience for mistakes and bad judgment by Syria’s new rulers.
6/7
March 18, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Relief at Assad’s fall is palpable and widespread.
Assad's regime caused exponentially greater harm than atrocities by ISIS or rebel groups.
Those who suffered under Assad might have considerable patience for mistakes and bad judgment by Syria’s new rulers.
6/7
Assad's regime caused exponentially greater harm than atrocities by ISIS or rebel groups.
Those who suffered under Assad might have considerable patience for mistakes and bad judgment by Syria’s new rulers.
6/7
Popular sentiment will be a key driver of events:
* New governing order — inclusive? majoritarian? authoritarian?
* Insurgency — contained or sustained?
* Gangster system — building block of state, or continuation of multi-player internationalized civil war?
5/7
* New governing order — inclusive? majoritarian? authoritarian?
* Insurgency — contained or sustained?
* Gangster system — building block of state, or continuation of multi-player internationalized civil war?
5/7
March 18, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Popular sentiment will be a key driver of events:
* New governing order — inclusive? majoritarian? authoritarian?
* Insurgency — contained or sustained?
* Gangster system — building block of state, or continuation of multi-player internationalized civil war?
5/7
* New governing order — inclusive? majoritarian? authoritarian?
* Insurgency — contained or sustained?
* Gangster system — building block of state, or continuation of multi-player internationalized civil war?
5/7
Many Shia, Christians and Alawis worried they’d face collective punishment for Assad's atrocities.
Some clung to the old sectarian and communal propaganda, calling Syria’s new rulers “takfiri terrorists” and claiming the rebels were worse war criminals than Assad.
4/7
Some clung to the old sectarian and communal propaganda, calling Syria’s new rulers “takfiri terrorists” and claiming the rebels were worse war criminals than Assad.
4/7
March 18, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Many Shia, Christians and Alawis worried they’d face collective punishment for Assad's atrocities.
Some clung to the old sectarian and communal propaganda, calling Syria’s new rulers “takfiri terrorists” and claiming the rebels were worse war criminals than Assad.
4/7
Some clung to the old sectarian and communal propaganda, calling Syria’s new rulers “takfiri terrorists” and claiming the rebels were worse war criminals than Assad.
4/7
Reasons to worry abound.
* Can economy recover? Will West lift sanctions?
* Will new regime tilt authoritarian/sectarian or democratic/inclusive?
* Will external players (Israel, Iran, Turkey, GCC) intervene and destabilize — or support a consolidated state (unlikely)?
3/7
* Can economy recover? Will West lift sanctions?
* Will new regime tilt authoritarian/sectarian or democratic/inclusive?
* Will external players (Israel, Iran, Turkey, GCC) intervene and destabilize — or support a consolidated state (unlikely)?
3/7
March 18, 2025 at 6:01 PM
Reasons to worry abound.
* Can economy recover? Will West lift sanctions?
* Will new regime tilt authoritarian/sectarian or democratic/inclusive?
* Will external players (Israel, Iran, Turkey, GCC) intervene and destabilize — or support a consolidated state (unlikely)?
3/7
* Can economy recover? Will West lift sanctions?
* Will new regime tilt authoritarian/sectarian or democratic/inclusive?
* Will external players (Israel, Iran, Turkey, GCC) intervene and destabilize — or support a consolidated state (unlikely)?
3/7