Surly Scientist
@surlyscientist00.bsky.social
What is Labour doing? Reform should have just won at this fucking point.
November 26, 2025 at 1:44 AM
What is Labour doing? Reform should have just won at this fucking point.
See other post. Men are moving plenty, in a lot of cases more quickly than women.
November 25, 2025 at 9:32 PM
See other post. Men are moving plenty, in a lot of cases more quickly than women.
New Jersey exits seem more representative, and would make sense since they polled more Latinos in New Jersey:
Overall break was 68-31 for Sherrill.
Men broke 61-38 and women broke 73-26. That seems like a more appropriate gender gap.
Overall break was 68-31 for Sherrill.
Men broke 61-38 and women broke 73-26. That seems like a more appropriate gender gap.
November 25, 2025 at 9:32 PM
New Jersey exits seem more representative, and would make sense since they polled more Latinos in New Jersey:
Overall break was 68-31 for Sherrill.
Men broke 61-38 and women broke 73-26. That seems like a more appropriate gender gap.
Overall break was 68-31 for Sherrill.
Men broke 61-38 and women broke 73-26. That seems like a more appropriate gender gap.
Sure, but women shifted almost 40 points left relative to 2024. If you’re getting almost 60 point margins among latinas, breaking even among men only helps you so much.
Plus I’d wager to guess the exits probably overestimated Dem Latina support and underestimated men.
Plus I’d wager to guess the exits probably overestimated Dem Latina support and underestimated men.
November 25, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Sure, but women shifted almost 40 points left relative to 2024. If you’re getting almost 60 point margins among latinas, breaking even among men only helps you so much.
Plus I’d wager to guess the exits probably overestimated Dem Latina support and underestimated men.
Plus I’d wager to guess the exits probably overestimated Dem Latina support and underestimated men.
Undecideds tend to be less engaged politically. And we know two things about them from polling and past results:
1. Good chance they don’t turnout.
2. These voters blame Trump for the state of the country right now.
Meaning they probably break for Dems if they vote at all.
1. Good chance they don’t turnout.
2. These voters blame Trump for the state of the country right now.
Meaning they probably break for Dems if they vote at all.
November 25, 2025 at 8:29 PM
Undecideds tend to be less engaged politically. And we know two things about them from polling and past results:
1. Good chance they don’t turnout.
2. These voters blame Trump for the state of the country right now.
Meaning they probably break for Dems if they vote at all.
1. Good chance they don’t turnout.
2. These voters blame Trump for the state of the country right now.
Meaning they probably break for Dems if they vote at all.
Given how 2024 non-voters are feeling, something tells me that 11% of undecideds probably break heavily Dem. . .
November 25, 2025 at 5:18 PM
Given how 2024 non-voters are feeling, something tells me that 11% of undecideds probably break heavily Dem. . .
Losing 67-33 among Latinos is not “ridiculously high” for Republicans, that’s actually pretty consistent with historical trends for them pre-2016.
November 25, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Losing 67-33 among Latinos is not “ridiculously high” for Republicans, that’s actually pretty consistent with historical trends for them pre-2016.
Don’t know about VS specifically, but Trump won Latino men by about 10 points last year. Spanberger won them by 6. That’s a 16 point swing.
Latinos overall broke 67-33 for Spanberger in VA.
Latinos overall broke 67-33 for Spanberger in VA.
November 25, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Don’t know about VS specifically, but Trump won Latino men by about 10 points last year. Spanberger won them by 6. That’s a 16 point swing.
Latinos overall broke 67-33 for Spanberger in VA.
Latinos overall broke 67-33 for Spanberger in VA.
I may actually die on election night if we get D+20 Miami-Dade county.
November 25, 2025 at 5:25 AM
I may actually die on election night if we get D+20 Miami-Dade county.
That CBS poll from yesterday having Trump down 20 had him down 69-31 among Hispanics.
I’d think even worse for him is that among his disapprovers: 57 of the 69 disapprove strongly. Among his approvers, only 17 of the 31 strongly approve.
Seems like the hate is deep and the love is shallow.
I’d think even worse for him is that among his disapprovers: 57 of the 69 disapprove strongly. Among his approvers, only 17 of the 31 strongly approve.
Seems like the hate is deep and the love is shallow.
November 25, 2025 at 5:17 AM
That CBS poll from yesterday having Trump down 20 had him down 69-31 among Hispanics.
I’d think even worse for him is that among his disapprovers: 57 of the 69 disapprove strongly. Among his approvers, only 17 of the 31 strongly approve.
Seems like the hate is deep and the love is shallow.
I’d think even worse for him is that among his disapprovers: 57 of the 69 disapprove strongly. Among his approvers, only 17 of the 31 strongly approve.
Seems like the hate is deep and the love is shallow.
Worst Dem senators. Playing right into MAGA’s hands.
November 25, 2025 at 12:52 AM
Worst Dem senators. Playing right into MAGA’s hands.
Historic margins among Latinos to -43 points down among them in 10 months. Leave it to MAGA to fuck that up.
November 24, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Historic margins among Latinos to -43 points down among them in 10 months. Leave it to MAGA to fuck that up.
-20pt approval for this admin and we’re presenting the drones in it like they’re noble peace prize winners or some shit.
90% of the media is clueless, Atlantic included.
90% of the media is clueless, Atlantic included.
November 24, 2025 at 6:41 PM
-20pt approval for this admin and we’re presenting the drones in it like they’re noble peace prize winners or some shit.
90% of the media is clueless, Atlantic included.
90% of the media is clueless, Atlantic included.
You’re a fucking Republican. Your entire politics are based on childish beliefs and imaginary friends and foes.
And you think Bluesky is the general public 🤣🤣🤣
And you think Bluesky is the general public 🤣🤣🤣
November 24, 2025 at 4:48 PM
You’re a fucking Republican. Your entire politics are based on childish beliefs and imaginary friends and foes.
And you think Bluesky is the general public 🤣🤣🤣
And you think Bluesky is the general public 🤣🤣🤣
Is that why you keep replying lmao
November 24, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Is that why you keep replying lmao
Took you 8 minutes to slap that sentence together lmao.
November 24, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Took you 8 minutes to slap that sentence together lmao.
Don’t be such a smelly piece of shit if you don’t want to attract flies lmao
November 24, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Don’t be such a smelly piece of shit if you don’t want to attract flies lmao
Damn so fucked up you quoted me twice to say the same thing.
And to deliver the classic trans like of attack. You really haven’t learned anything from the last year have you lmao. Probably still think Trump won cause people were tired of transgender people 🤣
And to deliver the classic trans like of attack. You really haven’t learned anything from the last year have you lmao. Probably still think Trump won cause people were tired of transgender people 🤣
November 24, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Damn so fucked up you quoted me twice to say the same thing.
And to deliver the classic trans like of attack. You really haven’t learned anything from the last year have you lmao. Probably still think Trump won cause people were tired of transgender people 🤣
And to deliver the classic trans like of attack. You really haven’t learned anything from the last year have you lmao. Probably still think Trump won cause people were tired of transgender people 🤣
Can’t even spell people’s names right lmao.
And I know a Trump supporter ain’t talking about word salad 🤣😭🤣😭
And I know a Trump supporter ain’t talking about word salad 🤣😭🤣😭
November 24, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Can’t even spell people’s names right lmao.
And I know a Trump supporter ain’t talking about word salad 🤣😭🤣😭
And I know a Trump supporter ain’t talking about word salad 🤣😭🤣😭
Think you mean the second time I’ve won lmao. You can’t keep up.
November 24, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Think you mean the second time I’ve won lmao. You can’t keep up.
“Blue states” like Virginia which has a Republican Governor lmao.
Republican failed policies have ruined America faster than the most America hating terrorists could ever dream. Keep living in delusion. Your cope will be delicious.
Republican failed policies have ruined America faster than the most America hating terrorists could ever dream. Keep living in delusion. Your cope will be delicious.
November 24, 2025 at 4:29 PM
“Blue states” like Virginia which has a Republican Governor lmao.
Republican failed policies have ruined America faster than the most America hating terrorists could ever dream. Keep living in delusion. Your cope will be delicious.
Republican failed policies have ruined America faster than the most America hating terrorists could ever dream. Keep living in delusion. Your cope will be delicious.
Too dumb to even understand the reply. You irrelevantly posted Trump getting views or some shit. Clearly the views were bots lmao.
November 24, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Too dumb to even understand the reply. You irrelevantly posted Trump getting views or some shit. Clearly the views were bots lmao.
And your source is a random review aggregator for how people feel about CBS lmao. You sure know how to check a source 🤣🤣🤣
November 24, 2025 at 4:23 PM
And your source is a random review aggregator for how people feel about CBS lmao. You sure know how to check a source 🤣🤣🤣
From what, bots? 🤣🤣🤣
November 24, 2025 at 4:22 PM
From what, bots? 🤣🤣🤣
Lmao, Republicans hate America
November 24, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Lmao, Republicans hate America