Scott Supak
LightNews LightNews
banner
supak.com
Scott Supak
@supak.com
370 followers 1.6K following 1.1K posts
“We are living in an interminable succession of absurdities imposed by the myopic logic of short-term thinking.”
—Jacques-Yves Cousteau

Retired stage technician turned professional predictor of politics and climate on this pyretic planet. Supak.com
Posts Replies Media Videos
supak.com
Butch and Sundance jump off cliff. RIP Robert Redford.
September 16, 2025 at 1:01 PM
supak.com
August 10, 2025 at 3:15 PM
supak.com
Me reading this:
June 20, 2025 at 12:56 PM
supak.com
June 20, 2025 at 12:48 PM
supak.com
Sometimes a parade is more than a parade.
Mussolini inspects troops
June 9, 2025 at 2:33 PM
supak.com
Going to break my never-quote-the-motherfucker rule here to say, wtf? He thinks white people invented rock and roll???
Donald Fucking Trump spewing racist garbage that white people invented rock and roll. Chuck Berry looking surprised and angry.
June 2, 2025 at 11:33 AM
supak.com
You can see how much black carbon from these fires winds up in the arctic (and eventually lands on the sea ice, which causes it to melt faster):

aerosol-alerts.atmosphere.copernicus.eu?lat=68.06146...
Map of black carbon in the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean
May 30, 2025 at 8:09 PM
supak.com
Dave Matthews at Bethel Woods last night.
May 25, 2025 at 2:32 PM
supak.com
Lol
May 23, 2025 at 11:58 AM
supak.com
All an 11-year-old "baby" girl needs is her Daddy, duh.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ivanka-donald-trump-pic/
May 4, 2025 at 4:18 PM
supak.com
Way ahead of you (and Kalshi is legal)! I got in at 40c.

kalshi.com/markets/kxre...
Graph from Kalshi showing odds of a 2025 recession up from less than 20% in Dec to 73% now.
April 30, 2025 at 12:53 PM
supak.com
Imagine how much it costs to pay people answering the phone when Rasmussen calls.
A graph of Rasmussen polling shows Trump approval tanking.
April 8, 2025 at 2:32 PM
supak.com
The measles vaccine has saved millions worldwide.
CDC graph showing 21.1 million deaths prevented globally from 2000-2017 by the measles vaccine. https://www.cdc.gov/measles/downloads/measlesdataandstatsslideset.pdf
April 6, 2025 at 2:26 PM
supak.com
Decades of betting on bad things happening has numbed me to the guilt. For hurricanes and tornadoes, I donate to charities to help those affected, but I'm not sure who to donate to in this case... maybe a vaccine advocacy group?
April 5, 2025 at 1:40 PM
supak.com
1st day net negative in the Bullshitter's favorite pollster.
Chart showing Trump approval and strong approval dropping, disapproval and strong disapproval rising, in the Rasmussen daily Presidential approval tracker.
April 4, 2025 at 6:10 PM
supak.com
lol, Gal acting like what Americans think matters to Donald Fucking Trump or the GOP
Gallup poll showing % of Americans who say the US isn't supporting Ukraine enough has risen from 30% in Dec 24 to 46% now. https://news.gallup.com/poll/658193/support-greater-role-ukraine-climbs-high.aspx
March 25, 2025 at 3:27 PM
supak.com
The Kalshi prediction market for 2025 measles cases is here:

kalshi.com/markets/kxme...
Chart showing how many cases of measles the Kalshi prediction market predicted over time, starting at near 0 and climbing to almost 3k before sliding back down to the current 2k.
March 20, 2025 at 8:57 PM
supak.com
The Kalshi measles market is now predicting over 2000 cases for this year. Here's a good article from @sciam.bsky.social on how even small drops in vaccination rates can mean big numbers of cases.

www.scientificamerican.com/article/see-...
Chart showing the vaccination rates of Kindergarteners in TX vs the US falling below the 95% threshold needed for herd immunity. Chart showing all of TX's school districts below the state's overall MMR vaccine coverage (school district 3 is below 50%)
March 20, 2025 at 8:57 PM
supak.com
Either it's time for Kalshi to open the hurricane markets, or the President got a new set of colored markers.
Map of disturbance in Atlantic being watched by the National Hurricane Center, text from them: > Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1220 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. A non-tropical area of low pressure located about 700 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is producing gale-force winds and a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Additional development of this low is not expected as it moves northward to northwestward into an environment of strong upper-level winds and dry air tonight and Tuesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml
March 17, 2025 at 5:02 PM
supak.com
Simpsons scene, man pointing at statue of Jimmy Carter yells: "He's history's greatest monster!"
March 17, 2025 at 2:27 PM
supak.com
March 11, 2025 at 4:54 PM
supak.com
The trick, of course, is to get some facts thru the cloud of ignorance they willfully surround themselves with.
Chart from the Kaiser Foundation: After hearing that the US spends about 1% on foreign aid, fewer adults across political parties say it is too much. https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/press-release/poll-two-thirds-believe-dissolving-usaid-will-lead-to-more-illness-and-death-globally-while-nearly-half-say-it-would-significantly-reduce-the-budget-deficit-and-fund-domestic-programs/
March 10, 2025 at 3:50 PM
supak.com
CDC update: 222 measles cases so far this year. The Kalshi prediction market forecasts 1006 for the year.

kalshi.com/markets/kxme...
Image showing RoI for my position in the measles prediction market at Kalshi. Cost: 4415.50 Value now: 5467.82
March 7, 2025 at 5:21 PM
supak.com
https://apnews.com/article/collective-bargaining-agreement-tsa-homeland-security-e3eb1d5e0ae8e1b4a6fdb87cd7f6bd39
March 7, 2025 at 5:06 PM
supak.com
"tacked right" LOL
https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Political_polarization_in_the_U.S._House.svg
March 6, 2025 at 6:42 PM