Sudeep Reddy
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Sudeep Reddy
@sudeepreddy.bsky.social
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Washington Bureau Chief, MSNOW
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“The Taco (for Trump Always Chickens Out) trade notched up its latest win yesterday”

www.ft.com/content/0006...
The pattern is now unmistakable. Trump announces extreme tariff policies but in the face of a negative political, economic or market response, he backs off. The Taco (for Trump Always Chickens Out) trade notched up its latest win yesterday, after Trump announced that he would cut tariffs on China from 145 per cent to 30 per cent for 90 days, ending what had amounted to an embargo on many Chinese goods (a significant number of products, such as electronics, had already received exemptions). China, for its part, cut its tariffs from 125 per cent to 10 per cent. Markets roared their approval. Yes, a 30 per cent tariff is still high and 90 days is not forever. But the central forecast now has to be that, should 30 per cent tariffs pinch in the US, Trump will bring those down, too. What reason has the administration given for investors to expect anything else? Trump observers love to note that the president has been rambling on about protectionism for 40 years now. But talk is cheap. Judge the man by his actions. Trump’s habit of concession is unambiguously good news. But the trade war is not over, and it is worth articulating the risks that remain.
May 13, 2025 at 1:05 PM
sudeepreddy.bsky.social
Even after Trump caved on his China tariffs, American consumers still face an overall average effective tariff rate of 17.8%, the highest since 1934.

And even after consumption shifts, the average tariff rate will be 16.4%, the highest since 1937.

budgetlab.yale.edu/research/sta...
May 12, 2025 at 8:37 PM
sudeepreddy.bsky.social
Unless the president soon finds a face-saving retreat in his trade war, conditions are in place for a recession that Americans will feel viscerally.

My latest in @politico.com’s The Nightly www.politico.com/newsletters/...
In the coming weeks, fewer ships from Asia will enter West Coast ports — many with lighter loads than before. Truckers who transport imported goods to retailers across the country will suddenly find less work. And executives across the logistics industry will transition from screaming into a void (as they’re doing now) to an I-told-you-so posture once American consumers face supply shortages, price increases and layoffs by summer as a result of sweeping tariffs.
May 1, 2025 at 12:40 AM