SteveNerd
@stevenerd.bsky.social
He/Him/His. Retired scientist, cat lover, reader, gamer. I do not have all the answers. I try to see the best in everyone. Sometimes I have to really squint.
Unlikely to answer DMs
Unlikely to answer DMs
Do you honestly believe that this is the end goal? Once the military is on the streets, what force would be capable of facing them down as they ignored the law? As they are currently doing wherever they have deployed. Once they are in place, all laws will be subj to the whims of the military and DJT
October 20, 2025 at 11:27 AM
Do you honestly believe that this is the end goal? Once the military is on the streets, what force would be capable of facing them down as they ignored the law? As they are currently doing wherever they have deployed. Once they are in place, all laws will be subj to the whims of the military and DJT
Yeah, TruthSocial suuuuccckkkss!
October 18, 2025 at 11:26 PM
Yeah, TruthSocial suuuuccckkkss!
Bluesky will NEVER be as insular, as much of an echo chamber, as the right-wing propaganda media machine powered by Fox News, OAN, and myriad bloggers and Vtubers that discount, denigrate and sneer at opposing views.
October 18, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Bluesky will NEVER be as insular, as much of an echo chamber, as the right-wing propaganda media machine powered by Fox News, OAN, and myriad bloggers and Vtubers that discount, denigrate and sneer at opposing views.
"The Book of Mormon" is THE funniest musical comedy stage production I have ever seen (twice, and a third in December).
October 13, 2025 at 8:58 PM
"The Book of Mormon" is THE funniest musical comedy stage production I have ever seen (twice, and a third in December).
I have lived in FL since 1961; it was not like this until George W Bush was elected. Since then it has been a shitshow.
October 9, 2025 at 12:48 AM
I have lived in FL since 1961; it was not like this until George W Bush was elected. Since then it has been a shitshow.
Just tried to report some "chemtrails" and the website is borked and won't take any input
October 9, 2025 at 12:45 AM
Just tried to report some "chemtrails" and the website is borked and won't take any input
Okay, Reply Guy, you can't let someone else have an opinion that's different from yours.
You are muted
You are muted
September 21, 2025 at 12:36 AM
Okay, Reply Guy, you can't let someone else have an opinion that's different from yours.
You are muted
You are muted
The 52/48 is from the larger dataset; subset analyses necessarily have much less data to support their conclusions, so I take that 73% and 90% from the more recent cohorts with skepticism.
Which I do, but you do not. So I doubt that we will agree.
Which I do, but you do not. So I doubt that we will agree.
September 21, 2025 at 12:23 AM
The 52/48 is from the larger dataset; subset analyses necessarily have much less data to support their conclusions, so I take that 73% and 90% from the more recent cohorts with skepticism.
Which I do, but you do not. So I doubt that we will agree.
Which I do, but you do not. So I doubt that we will agree.
If you are using the numbers in that paper to wipe the flopsweat from your brow and say to yourself, "Whew, I think we're going to be all right," I think you are going to be on for an unpleasant surprise.
September 21, 2025 at 12:09 AM
If you are using the numbers in that paper to wipe the flopsweat from your brow and say to yourself, "Whew, I think we're going to be all right," I think you are going to be on for an unpleasant surprise.
Because smaller, more tractable (or coercible), more homogeneous countries are IMO better fits for U-turns, from a sociological POV
September 20, 2025 at 11:57 PM
Because smaller, more tractable (or coercible), more homogeneous countries are IMO better fits for U-turns, from a sociological POV
You know, I read your posts on your timeline, and there is so much we seem to agree on, but my scientific career has taught me to be skeptical of anything that looks too good to be true. This paper looks a little too pat to take at face value.
I don't have time to devote to this anymore. Go forth
I don't have time to devote to this anymore. Go forth
September 20, 2025 at 11:53 PM
You know, I read your posts on your timeline, and there is so much we seem to agree on, but my scientific career has taught me to be skeptical of anything that looks too good to be true. This paper looks a little too pat to take at face value.
I don't have time to devote to this anymore. Go forth
I don't have time to devote to this anymore. Go forth
Oh but I did. I also saw that the countries involved were not what could be called heavyweights on the world stage, perhaps excepting Brazil.
If you are fixated on the more recent "90%" U-turn efficacy, I think your credulity is showing.
If you are fixated on the more recent "90%" U-turn efficacy, I think your credulity is showing.
September 20, 2025 at 11:48 PM
Oh but I did. I also saw that the countries involved were not what could be called heavyweights on the world stage, perhaps excepting Brazil.
If you are fixated on the more recent "90%" U-turn efficacy, I think your credulity is showing.
If you are fixated on the more recent "90%" U-turn efficacy, I think your credulity is showing.
I have been warning everyone around me, since before the 2024 election, that DJT wanted a police state, and that we were all in danger. Nobody was worried - "the courts/Congress/etc won't let that happen." I've had to cut MAGA family members out of my life. My hopes have always been realistic
September 20, 2025 at 11:20 PM
I have been warning everyone around me, since before the 2024 election, that DJT wanted a police state, and that we were all in danger. Nobody was worried - "the courts/Congress/etc won't let that happen." I've had to cut MAGA family members out of my life. My hopes have always been realistic
Yes. Did you read ANY of what else I wrote?
September 20, 2025 at 10:50 PM
Yes. Did you read ANY of what else I wrote?
Not the words I said.
Seems like you are unable to comprehend any idea that isn't uncomplicated, or has negative connotations.
Seems like you are unable to comprehend any idea that isn't uncomplicated, or has negative connotations.
September 20, 2025 at 10:35 PM
Not the words I said.
Seems like you are unable to comprehend any idea that isn't uncomplicated, or has negative connotations.
Seems like you are unable to comprehend any idea that isn't uncomplicated, or has negative connotations.
I didn't say zero chance; the point I was making is that unless some U-turns start happening, and more often than successful autocratic events, our chances of getting out of this become more and more slim. Positive thoughts and optimism won't be enough.
September 20, 2025 at 10:29 PM
I didn't say zero chance; the point I was making is that unless some U-turns start happening, and more often than successful autocratic events, our chances of getting out of this become more and more slim. Positive thoughts and optimism won't be enough.
If I were any other country in the world, I would be very concerned. Imagine a White-supremacist, reactionary "Christian" Nazi Amerika with the largest nuclear weapons inventory, led by MAGA zealots, like President Randy Fine. I do, and it keeps me awake at night.
September 20, 2025 at 9:04 PM
If I were any other country in the world, I would be very concerned. Imagine a White-supremacist, reactionary "Christian" Nazi Amerika with the largest nuclear weapons inventory, led by MAGA zealots, like President Randy Fine. I do, and it keeps me awake at night.
My point is that the USA was the most stable democratic republic in history, the 800 lb gorilla which had enormous influence, and now that is gone, with no viable country to help us turn back to the path of freedom. Fascism leads to slavery for all but the favored.
September 20, 2025 at 9:04 PM
My point is that the USA was the most stable democratic republic in history, the 800 lb gorilla which had enormous influence, and now that is gone, with no viable country to help us turn back to the path of freedom. Fascism leads to slavery for all but the favored.
their wildest hopes and dreams come true without having to drop a single bomb or deploy a single serviceman.
I am not going to stop fighting this prenatal fascist state, but I am not going to delude myself as to how far we have fallen.
I am not going to stop fighting this prenatal fascist state, but I am not going to delude myself as to how far we have fallen.
September 20, 2025 at 8:46 PM
their wildest hopes and dreams come true without having to drop a single bomb or deploy a single serviceman.
I am not going to stop fighting this prenatal fascist state, but I am not going to delude myself as to how far we have fallen.
I am not going to stop fighting this prenatal fascist state, but I am not going to delude myself as to how far we have fallen.
Great Britain is in the throes of their own paroxysm. The weak democracies of Europe have their own problems. Asia is falling more and more under the sway of China, or their endemic right-wing pops. Canada is fighting for its survival as its closest neighbor goes mad. Russia, China, NK are watching
September 20, 2025 at 8:46 PM
Great Britain is in the throes of their own paroxysm. The weak democracies of Europe have their own problems. Asia is falling more and more under the sway of China, or their endemic right-wing pops. Canada is fighting for its survival as its closest neighbor goes mad. Russia, China, NK are watching
Feel free to keep your head in the sand. That 90% reversal rate is contingent on the US of the past being in the group of countries supporting and encouraging return to democratic norms. Now we are the ones trying on autocracy, and who is there to call us back from the abyss?
September 20, 2025 at 8:46 PM
Feel free to keep your head in the sand. That 90% reversal rate is contingent on the US of the past being in the group of countries supporting and encouraging return to democratic norms. Now we are the ones trying on autocracy, and who is there to call us back from the abyss?
I would not define a 4% differential as "a lot." I think that is marginal at best. Stated as the converse, "48% of authoritarian events are not U-turns, and continue the slide into autocracy." Sounds less promising, no? And the NEXT event is also 48% likely to continue this trajectory...
September 20, 2025 at 8:31 PM
I would not define a 4% differential as "a lot." I think that is marginal at best. Stated as the converse, "48% of authoritarian events are not U-turns, and continue the slide into autocracy." Sounds less promising, no? And the NEXT event is also 48% likely to continue this trajectory...