Stephen Evans
@stephenevans.bsky.social
Chief Executive, Learning and Work Institute.
Ex HMT, SMF and London government.
Learning, skills, labour markets & public policy.
Views my own.
Ex HMT, SMF and London government.
Learning, skills, labour markets & public policy.
Views my own.
2. It made me sad to hear Govt ministers describe basic English & maths in apprenticeships (standard in other countries) as 'unnecessary red tape'. Real world result is fewer people improving these skills, holding back them, their employers & our economy. Grading for govt: must do better.
November 28, 2025 at 10:54 AM
2. It made me sad to hear Govt ministers describe basic English & maths in apprenticeships (standard in other countries) as 'unnecessary red tape'. Real world result is fewer people improving these skills, holding back them, their employers & our economy. Grading for govt: must do better.
NEW. Another 5% drop in adults doing English & maths. Numbers ⬇️60% since 2011. Matters as 9m adults have low literacy or numeracy, limiting work & life chances. Current trends = 20+ years to fix. DfE attribute latest fall to removing English & maths reqs from apprenticeships, a backward step IMV
November 28, 2025 at 10:54 AM
NEW. Another 5% drop in adults doing English & maths. Numbers ⬇️60% since 2011. Matters as 9m adults have low literacy or numeracy, limiting work & life chances. Current trends = 20+ years to fix. DfE attribute latest fall to removing English & maths reqs from apprenticeships, a backward step IMV
6. Bigger picture is whether a further rise in NMW & taxes on employers + weak growth mean Govt's employment & young people plans will come a cropper? OBR forecasts employment rate will be flat, so no progress toward the 80% ambition. Policy can do more. But bigger picture & coherence are key issues
November 27, 2025 at 4:34 PM
6. Bigger picture is whether a further rise in NMW & taxes on employers + weak growth mean Govt's employment & young people plans will come a cropper? OBR forecasts employment rate will be flat, so no progress toward the 80% ambition. Policy can do more. But bigger picture & coherence are key issues
1. Budget reflections: extra £725m for growth & skills levy is cumulative so c£150m per year. And the levy is due to raise £200m more per year than expected due to higher wage growth. So this is really Govt saying it'll spend the extra it raises. It'll still be taking £800m from the levy.
November 27, 2025 at 4:34 PM
1. Budget reflections: extra £725m for growth & skills levy is cumulative so c£150m per year. And the levy is due to raise £200m more per year than expected due to higher wage growth. So this is really Govt saying it'll spend the extra it raises. It'll still be taking £800m from the levy.
Another set of worrying NEET stats, 946k 16-24s not in education, employment or training. Hoping the Chancellor will speed up action on Youth Guarantee for England in her Budget. But also need a growing economy & businesses taking YP on. Policy impact on hiring a bit more ahem mixed at the moment...
November 20, 2025 at 9:52 AM
Another set of worrying NEET stats, 946k 16-24s not in education, employment or training. Hoping the Chancellor will speed up action on Youth Guarantee for England in her Budget. But also need a growing economy & businesses taking YP on. Policy impact on hiring a bit more ahem mixed at the moment...
1. Quick update on new transfer to UC stats. Around 800k ESA claimants got notice of closure of legacy benefits by end Sep 25. Of these, 665k (98% of resolved cases) have claimed UC. This is main driver of rise in UC no work requirement group, mostly NOT a real rise. www.gov.uk/government/s...
November 12, 2025 at 5:43 PM
1. Quick update on new transfer to UC stats. Around 800k ESA claimants got notice of closure of legacy benefits by end Sep 25. Of these, 665k (98% of resolved cases) have claimed UC. This is main driver of rise in UC no work requirement group, mostly NOT a real rise. www.gov.uk/government/s...
Stage is set for our Get the Nation Learning awards.
November 4, 2025 at 12:02 PM
Stage is set for our Get the Nation Learning awards.
Another way to visualise this shows the proportion of annual cohorts (simple average) still in the searching for work group a period of time later. You can see faster exit rates for post-pandemic cohorts. Noting people can move to other out of work groups, not just into work (will come to that).
October 30, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Another way to visualise this shows the proportion of annual cohorts (simple average) still in the searching for work group a period of time later. You can see faster exit rates for post-pandemic cohorts. Noting people can move to other out of work groups, not just into work (will come to that).
Spotters badge to Paul, a treasure trove of data. I'll dig through more but for now mention these charts. Only c.1 in 10 Searching for Work claimants are still there after 12m. But build up over time (I think) means 40% of current claimants have been SfW for 12m+. Means different policy challenge.
October 30, 2025 at 4:11 PM
Spotters badge to Paul, a treasure trove of data. I'll dig through more but for now mention these charts. Only c.1 in 10 Searching for Work claimants are still there after 12m. But build up over time (I think) means 40% of current claimants have been SfW for 12m+. Means different policy challenge.
New @learnworkuk.bsky.social report out today. Thanks @feweek.bsky.social for great article on it. Full thread from me tomorrow, delayed by today’s L&W away day (there was truffle making).
October 8, 2025 at 6:37 PM
New @learnworkuk.bsky.social report out today. Thanks @feweek.bsky.social for great article on it. Full thread from me tomorrow, delayed by today’s L&W away day (there was truffle making).
New target for 2/3 young people to do HE or an apprenticeship is probably broadly sensible (abolishing 50% HE target that doesn’t exist is about headlines). But is it ambitious? 25% of YP already do apprenticeships. 50% do HE. Some overlap & likely app drop since this data. But just describing now?
September 30, 2025 at 2:38 PM
New target for 2/3 young people to do HE or an apprenticeship is probably broadly sensible (abolishing 50% HE target that doesn’t exist is about headlines). But is it ambitious? 25% of YP already do apprenticeships. 50% do HE. Some overlap & likely app drop since this data. But just describing now?
4. Growth since pandemic has been concentrate in health-related benefits (though still much lower claim rates than for older age groups). Shows need to offer help to YP in these groups & think about health support & role of employers supporting healthy workplaces.
September 10, 2025 at 12:11 PM
4. Growth since pandemic has been concentrate in health-related benefits (though still much lower claim rates than for older age groups). Shows need to offer help to YP in these groups & think about health support & role of employers supporting healthy workplaces.
3. Picture varies across country. 15% of YP in Hartlepool, Blackpool & Burnley are on out-of-work UC (searching for work or health element). More than five times the rate in Cambridge, Guildford & Oxford. Shows need for targeted action to expand work & education opportunities.
September 10, 2025 at 12:11 PM
3. Picture varies across country. 15% of YP in Hartlepool, Blackpool & Burnley are on out-of-work UC (searching for work or health element). More than five times the rate in Cambridge, Guildford & Oxford. Shows need for targeted action to expand work & education opportunities.
1/3 YP without English & maths by 16 have it by 19. Up from 10% ten years ago. Can we do better? Yes. Should we go back? No.
August 21, 2025 at 10:41 PM
1/3 YP without English & maths by 16 have it by 19. Up from 10% ten years ago. Can we do better? Yes. Should we go back? No.
3. Continuing catch up from a bumper stats day, the UC sanction rate (sanctions as a % of those in groups that can be sanctioned) continues to fall. It's been gently falling since early 2024.
August 13, 2025 at 9:14 AM
3. Continuing catch up from a bumper stats day, the UC sanction rate (sanctions as a % of those in groups that can be sanctioned) continues to fall. It's been gently falling since early 2024.
New transfer to UC data yesterday. To June 25 567k notices sent to ESA claimants. Of those, 416k are resolved (people have time to decide what to do) & 409k (98%) claimed UC. Basically so far almost all ESA claimants are claiming UC when told ESA claim will be closing.
August 13, 2025 at 9:08 AM
New transfer to UC data yesterday. To June 25 567k notices sent to ESA claimants. Of those, 416k are resolved (people have time to decide what to do) & 409k (98%) claimed UC. Basically so far almost all ESA claimants are claiming UC when told ESA claim will be closing.
Disability employment rate gap very little changed in a long time. Chart from our full labour market briefing, out now. learningandwork.org.uk/wp-content/u...
August 12, 2025 at 2:36 PM
Disability employment rate gap very little changed in a long time. Chart from our full labour market briefing, out now. learningandwork.org.uk/wp-content/u...
Bit of talk on Twitter about number of Universal Credit claimants now hitting 8m. This'll happen if you merge other benefits into UC. But there's a real rise in incapacity benefit claims (UC & ESA) on our estimates, from 2.5m pre-pandemic to 3.8m now. Chart is our estimate of out of work claims.
August 12, 2025 at 10:52 AM
Bit of talk on Twitter about number of Universal Credit claimants now hitting 8m. This'll happen if you merge other benefits into UC. But there's a real rise in incapacity benefit claims (UC & ESA) on our estimates, from 2.5m pre-pandemic to 3.8m now. Chart is our estimate of out of work claims.
5. Overall, this is broadly sensible and all extra £ welcome. It's a sign of a more directive approach to skills £. But I'd like to see more focus on how public £ can 'crowd in' private £. And we mustn't overclaim - £100m isn't going to turbocharge or rocket boost anything!
August 12, 2025 at 9:57 AM
5. Overall, this is broadly sensible and all extra £ welcome. It's a sign of a more directive approach to skills £. But I'd like to see more focus on how public £ can 'crowd in' private £. And we mustn't overclaim - £100m isn't going to turbocharge or rocket boost anything!
4. Construction employers have pledged some extra £ too. Quite right: it's their companies & they need people to build the extra houses. But this, plus skills utilisation, is an underplayed area of policy. Employers are investing 36% less per worker in training than 2005!
August 12, 2025 at 9:57 AM
4. Construction employers have pledged some extra £ too. Quite right: it's their companies & they need people to build the extra houses. But this, plus skills utilisation, is an underplayed area of policy. Employers are investing 36% less per worker in training than 2005!
3. But it's relatively small £. And at same time Adult Skills Fund & UKSPF are being cut. Overall, adult skills funding in England is £1bn below 2010 levels. This may narrow to £900m in the next couple of years.
August 12, 2025 at 9:57 AM
3. But it's relatively small £. And at same time Adult Skills Fund & UKSPF are being cut. Overall, adult skills funding in England is £1bn below 2010 levels. This may narrow to £900m in the next couple of years.
2. Sectors like retail & hospitality hardest hit: biggest jobs falls & among highest pay growth (NMW up, demand flat, ENICS up).
August 12, 2025 at 6:43 AM
2. Sectors like retail & hospitality hardest hit: biggest jobs falls & among highest pay growth (NMW up, demand flat, ENICS up).
1. Labour market continues to cool. Payroll employment trending down & vacancies falling for 37th month in a row. Not going off a cliff, but definite downward trend. Average pay growth easing. But at 5% (ex bonuses) still above level consistent with inflation target, given weak productivity growth.
August 12, 2025 at 6:43 AM
1. Labour market continues to cool. Payroll employment trending down & vacancies falling for 37th month in a row. Not going off a cliff, but definite downward trend. Average pay growth easing. But at 5% (ex bonuses) still above level consistent with inflation target, given weak productivity growth.
Wow - so pleased for & proud of the Lionesses! What an achievement. And it was always going to be Chloe Kelly.
July 27, 2025 at 6:53 PM
Wow - so pleased for & proud of the Lionesses! What an achievement. And it was always going to be Chloe Kelly.
5. BUT training tends to be thin (lots of induction training - important but not everything) and unequal (more likely to go to those with higher skills already). Workers who get training get on average <6 days per year, down since 2017. Big drops in off the job training (generally more formal).
July 25, 2025 at 9:28 AM
5. BUT training tends to be thin (lots of induction training - important but not everything) and unequal (more likely to go to those with higher skills already). Workers who get training get on average <6 days per year, down since 2017. Big drops in off the job training (generally more formal).