Why does @jrf-uk.bsky.social show a fall while OBR shows a rise in living standards? See jrf.org.uk/cost-of-livi... for an explainer, and this is my latest version comparing like with like, with both series showing a disappointing profile before taking account of rising housing costs.

Chancellor said lifting 2-child limit means "Biggest reduction in child poverty over a Parliament since records began." Estimated 400k reduction would be, but modelling is always uncertain. What is certain is that removing the 2 Child Limit is pivotal to the fall.

A child poverty strategy with the 2-child limit in place would *not* be a credible child poverty strategy. *All* of the growth in child poverty since the 2011/12 low point is for children in scope of this policy.

Slightly higher earnings growth in latest month of data means real earnings are up 0.4% on the year to Sept 25, equating to £2.20 a week, a huge contrast to the previous 12-month period where growth was more than 5 times higher at 2.4%, £11.60 after inflation.

The annual gap still likely to be more than £1,000 for singles and £2,500 for couples. Look at how little next year’s increase moves rates towards a level that enables people to afford the essentials.

We are still at near zero real earnings growth since Sept 2024, 11th month in row. We had a very small rise in earnings in August 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.2% on Sept 2024.

Great question. Answer is a bit of both, but higher inflation is the biggest driver, with similar (if lower) nominal wage growth this year compared to last year.

Near zero real earnings growth since Sept, 10th month in row. We had a very small fall in earnings in July 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.1% on Sept 2024.

A very small fall in earnings in June 2025 on previous month - now just 0.2% up on Sept 2024, around an eighth of the growth in the same period last year.

We now have the new MPR. It implies annual private sector wage growth of ~zero by Sept 25 compared to CPIH and ~zero by Dec 25 compared to CPI (and falling relative to CPIH). Not a good earnings backdrop to the Budget.

Ahead of tomorrow’s Monetary Policy Report, look at how real earnings have stagnated since September. They’re up just 0.3% between September 2024 and the latest May 2025 data, just a fifth of the growth over the same period in 2023-24. (1/5)

As I told the committee, the proportion of pensioners not reaching MIS, which sets out what the public agree is needed for a minimum, dignified, socially acceptable standard of living, has actually gone up even faster than the main poverty measure. (2/4)

My reaction on behalf of @jrf-uk.bsky.social, on today's labour market statistics and the Government's plans to cut disability benefits. The threat of widespread hardship among disabled people, unable to replace the incomes they lose out on through work, is even starker.

@jrf-uk.bsky.social has analysed caseload data and can see much of the forecast growth in PIP spending is directed at people with significant difficulties across a range of areas. Over half of the growth in spending is from people in receipt of the higher rate in both PIP elements.

See jrf.org.uk/social-secur... for @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis from me looking at the c400 welfare changes (mostly cuts) scored the OBR since 2010. A £6bn cut containing a £5bn PIP cut is unprecedented - and I use that word advisedly.

The Times today: £5bn/1m = £5,000/disabled person, i.e. greater than 3 of 4 PIP rates. Unless 1 of 2 numbers in headline is wrong, this has to take money away from severely disabled people on PIP higher rate, as lower rate recipients don't get £5,000/yr. Obscene to consider this!

The figure Iain refers to is one of the most misleading statistics I have seen in 25 years as a professional statistician. It focuses on the rise in UC (dark blue) and ignores existing ESA cases (light blue), when both groups are on sickness benefit.

Not quite back to 1937, but you can see the gradual decline over 60 years here from @jrf-uk.bsky.social's Guarantee our Essentials Full Report at www.jrf.org.uk/social-secur...