SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)
LightNews LightNews
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)
@spc-storms.nws-bot.us
830 followers 1 following 10K posts
Unofficial bot sharing alerts from SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Watches.

This account is not monitored. Contact @wandrme.paxex.aero if needed.
Posts Replies Media Videos
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Nov 27, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southeast Texas into northern Louisiana Saturday afternoon or evening. ...Synopsis... A surface low will translate northeast from the southern Plains toward the Great lakes as a broad mid-level trough overspreads the central U.S. on Saturday. Relatively rich low-level moisture return will occur across the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development should occur within a warm-air advection regime. Given strong vertical wind shear in place due to a departing low-level jet, isolated strong to severe storms are possible across the TX Coastal Plain toward the Sabine River Valley ahead of the approaching cold front. ...Southeast Texas into northern Louisiana... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley within the warm-air advection regime. Through the day, airmass modification will result in some boundary layer destabilization as cloudiness and precipitation gradually clears the warm sector over southeastern TX. Over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may materialize if surface temperatures can exceed 70 F given expected mid to upper 60s F dewpoints beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates. A surface cold front will sweep southeastward toward eastern TX. However, the mid-level trough should pivot northeastward through the day. As such, the surface low and accompanying low-level jet are poised to depart the southern Plains and track away from the axis of greater moisture and instability, which should limit severe potential to some degree. Still, low-level convergence along the cold front should support thunderstorm development by afternoon peak heating across the TX coastal plain to the Sabine River Valley. Strong enough flow along the western periphery of the departing low-level jet, beneath modest westerlies, will support elongated hodographs and over 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Given the aforementioned buoyancy, multicells and perhaps a couple of supercells are possible. Isolated severe gusts/hail are possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025 Day 3 Outlook Image
November 27, 2025 at 8:40 AM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Nov 27, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday) night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure across much of the Interior West, as well as the northern and eastern CONUS, will limit thunderstorm potential in these regions due to static stability. However, the rapid approach of a mid-level trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis over the southern Plains tomorrow (Friday). As the surface low materializes over western OK during the day, modest low-level moisture will advect northward with the aid of a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates are expected to overspread the aforementioned low-level warm-air advection, promoting destabilization Friday night/early Saturday morning atop a stable boundary layer. This elevated buoyancy, characterized by 500-1000 J/kg thin MUCAPE constrained above 700 mb, will support nocturnal thunderstorm development over portions of the southern Plains, when the primary upper support with the approaching mid-level trough arrives. Given strong vertical wind shear (e.g. elongated hodographs), a few of the stronger storms may produce hail. However, given limited elevated MUCAPE, the confidence in the coverage of more than sparse severe hail is too low for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025 Day 2 Outlook Image
November 27, 2025 at 7:00 AM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Nov 27, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... Models indicate that an initially significant, and now occluding, cyclone will gradually weaken across Quebec today through tonight, as a weaker secondary cyclone also occludes across and north-northeast of the Canadian Maritimes. In mid-levels, it appears that large-scale troughing will be reinforced and undergo amplification while progressing into and across the Atlantic Seaboard, in response to a pair of initially digging short wave perturbations across and east of the Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, a notable associated surface cold front is forecast to progress away from the Atlantic Seaboard, and through much of the remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Basin. Within split westerlies emanating from the northern and mid-latitude Pacific, a pair of short wave impulses are forecast to dig inland across the Cascades and Canadian Rockies, downstream of building larger-scale mid/upper ridging. However, it appears that generally stable conditions will be maintained across much of the West, in addition to most areas east of the Rockies. ...Florida Peninsula... Downstream of the amplifying large-scale mid-level trough axis, models continue to indicate that one area of developing large-scale forcing for ascent may overcome mid-level inhibition and support a couple of generally weak thunderstorms across the Lower Florida Keys into southeastern Florida coastal vicinities this morning into afternoon. In the presence of another developing area of large-scale ascent, weak destabilization may also support at least lower threshold probabilities for thunderstorms, ahead of the southward advancing cold front across interior central into east central coastal portions of the peninsula this afternoon. ...Lower Great Lakes... Cold air overspreading the relative warm waters of Lakes Erie and Ontario may contribute to thermodynamic profiles increasingly conducive to convection capable of producing occasional lightning, particularly as temperatures cool below -20 to -25 C in the 700-600 mb layer this afternoon into tonight, based on forecast soundings. ..Kerr.. 11/27/2025 Day 1 Outlook Image
November 27, 2025 at 5:20 AM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Nov 27, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Southern Florida/Keys... Convection in a small cluster initially centered over interior southern Florida, generally to the northwest of Greater Miami, has undergone recent weakening. While occasional lightning persists in stronger cores, guidance suggests that potential for this continuing inland and near coastal areas will become increasingly negligible through 02-03Z. Otherwise, although more uncertain due to model spread, potential for scattered convection capable of producing lightning might increase late tonight near the lower Keys, if an increase in large-scale ascent is able to overcome inhibition associated with relatively warm layers aloft. ..Kerr.. 11/27/2025 Day 1 Outlook Image
November 27, 2025 at 1:00 AM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Nov 26, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... A deep cyclone (992 mb) will occlude today over the upper Great Lakes while a cold front moves eastward/southeastward across the Appalachians and off the Atlantic coast/into north FL by tonight. The threat for thunderstorms appears negligible along/ahead of the cold front from the Carolinas into the Tidewater given only weak forcing for ascent and poor thermodynamic profiles based on regional 12z soundings. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the front across north FL/southeast GA greater low-level moisture and buoyancy compared to areas farther northeast. A separate area of sea breeze convection/isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across southeast FL, despite relatively warm temperatures around 600 mb. A band of showers/shallow convection along the cold front will spread eastward today across WV and western PA/NY with gusty winds, but lightning and convective wind damage appear unlikely. Overnight, a lake effect convective band is expected across eastern Lake Erie, where buoyancy depth could become marginally sufficient for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes, though the threat will remain on the margins for an outlook area. Otherwise, a few thunderstorms will linger across deep south TX through about midday until the cold front moves southward into Mexico. Day 1 Outlook Image
November 26, 2025 at 8:00 PM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Nov 26, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains Friday night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the central US is forecast to shift eastward and weaken under the influence of a deepening shortwave trough over the Rockies and High Plains Friday. As the trough to the west deepens, stronger westerly flow will overspread the Plains states deepening a lee cyclone across portions of eastern CO and western KS. A strong cold front, attendant to the surface low, will sweep southeastward, supporting isolated thunderstorms over the southern Plains and Ozarks into early Saturday. ...Central TX into southeastern OK... As the surface low over the southern High Plains deepens, southerly winds will increase supporting low-level moisture advection on the western flank of the surface high into portions of TX and southern OK late Friday. With surface temperatures remaining relatively cool in the wake of the prior frontal passage, most forecast soundings show weak buoyancy developing above a surface stable layer at the apex of a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As the upper trough moves overhead and the surface cold front approaches from the northwest, broad ascent will support isolated thunderstorms from central and western North TX into central/eastern OK and the western Ozarks late Friday night into early Saturday morning. While buoyancy is expected to remain fairly limited (~500 J/kg MUCAPE), strong flow aloft could support occasional stronger elevated storms with the potential for small hail. This is most likely farther south across TX where buoyancy would be stronger, though confidence in a sustained severe risk is low. ..Lyons.. 11/26/2025 Day 3 Outlook Image
November 26, 2025 at 7:40 PM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Nov 26, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on Thursday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A broad upper low over the eastern third of US is forecast to deepen considerable Thursday as a large ridge also intensifies over the central and western parts of the country. A weak secondary shortwave trough will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest behind the building ridge. At the surface, a cold front will move offshore over south FL with strong high pressure building behind it. This will force offshore flow over much of the US. The one exception will be the southern FL Peninsula tomorrow afternoon and evening where isolated thunderstorms are possible before the front clears the coast. Elsewhere, sporadic lightning is possible in the lee of the Great Lakes, but coverage should be minimal. No severe weather is expected. ..Lyons.. 11/26/2025 Day 2 Outlook Image
November 26, 2025 at 5:40 PM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Nov 26, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis... A deep cyclone (992 mb) will occlude today over the upper Great Lakes while a cold front moves eastward/southeastward across the Appalachians and off the Atlantic coast/into north FL by tonight. The threat for thunderstorms appears negligible along/ahead of the cold front from the Carolinas into the Tidewater given only weak forcing for ascent and poor thermodynamic profiles based on regional 12z soundings. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the front across north FL/southeast GA greater low-level moisture and buoyancy compared to areas farther northeast. A separate area of sea breeze convection/isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across southeast FL, despite relatively warm temperatures around 600 mb. A band of showers/shallow convection along the cold front will spread eastward today across WV and western PA/NY with gusty winds, but lightning and convective wind damage appear unlikely. Overnight, a lake effect convective band is expected across eastern Lake Erie, where buoyancy depth could become marginally sufficient for charge separation and isolated lightning flashes, though the threat will remain on the margins for an outlook area. Otherwise, a few thunderstorms will linger across deep south TX through about midday until the cold front moves southward into Mexico. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 11/26/2025 Day 1 Outlook Image
November 26, 2025 at 4:40 PM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Nov 26, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough continues to deepen across much of the eastern U.S. today, while a cold front pushes southward across south TX and the southeast coastal states. This process will stabilize the air mass across the nation, precluding organized severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring over southeast GA/northern FL, and should persist for a few more hours as they spread southward into the FL Peninsula. Weak forcing and limited vertical shear suggests severe storms are unlikely. Other scattered thunderstorms have been occurring this morning over Deep South TX in vicinity of the front. This activity will also build southward and out of the CONUS during the day with little risk of severe activity. ..Hart/Dean.. 11/26/2025 Day 1 Outlook Image
November 26, 2025 at 4:20 PM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Nov 26, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
⛈️DISCUSSION🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper air pattern is expected through the remainder of this week into the middle of next week, with multiple mid-level troughs poised to develop and amplify while progressing across the CONUS. This pattern will support cooler temperatures across the northern half of the U.S. through the extended period, resulting stable low-level conditions and limited potential for thunderstorm development. However, the passage of multiple mid-level troughs will result in surface low development, accompanied by moisture return and at least some thunderstorm potential across the southern Plains into the Southeast on a few occasions. First, a surface low will rapidly translate from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday, becoming displaced from the moisture axis with time. Before departing the southern Plains, an appreciable fetch of low-level moisture will become established over the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. It is plausible that at least a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could develop. However, the rapid departure of the surface low will reduce deep-layer ascent, with storm coverage ultimately in question (hence no severe probabilities being introduced at this time). Medium range guidance consensus has the next in a series of mid-level troughs amplifying over the southern Plains, which may support surface low development somewhere over the Lower MS Valley early next week. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out along the Gulf Coast. However, the development, track, or evolution of the surface low is currently unclear in the guidance, warranting the withholding of severe probabilities for now. Day 4-8 Outlook Image
November 26, 2025 at 9:00 AM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Nov 26, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains Friday night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the central U.S. as another upper trough ejects into the Atlantic on Day 3 (Friday). As this occurs, surface high pressure and an associated cool, statically stable airmass will overspread the U.S. east of the MS River, limiting thunderstorm potential. However, the approach of the central U.S. trough will encourage surface low development over the southern Plains on Friday, promoting moisture return from the Gulf. With the return of this moisture comes buoyancy (albeit marginal) across portions of the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible Friday night into early Saturday morning across much of central TX into far southwestern OK as cooler temperatures aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates overspreads the moist axis ahead of the surface low. ...Central TX into far southwestern OK... The latest guidance consensus depicts a 1008 mb surface low developing somewhere over western OK by Friday evening as a mid-level trough deepens over the central Rockies. Given a frontal intrusion over the Gulf in days prior, moisture return will be scant for Day 3/Friday. Nonetheless, the development of a strong (i.e. 40-50 kt) southerly low-level jet will aid in the northward advancement of enough moisture to support scattered thunderstorm development Friday night into early Saturday morning. Forecast soundings depict a stable nocturnal boundary layer over central TX to far southwestern OK, but with 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this stable, moist layer, yielding 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, generally above 850 mb. Given the strong low-level jet, and an approaching westerly 500 mb wind maximum rotating around the amplifying trough, strong deep-layer shear is expected. Forecast soundings show elongated hodographs, with approximately 50 kts of effective bulk shear noted. Elevated multicells are expected, likely accompanied by at least small hail. However, if trends in increasing buoyancy are noted in future guidance, severe hail probabilities may be needed in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025 Day 3 Outlook Image
November 26, 2025 at 7:40 AM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Nov 26, 2025 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on Thursday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will deepen across the eastern CONUS, ushering in surface high pressure and associated cool and stable air across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorms over most locales tomorrow (Thursday). The one exception will be the southern FL Peninsula tomorrow afternoon and evening. Here, a surface cold front will sweep across the region, lifting a moist and buoyant low-level airmass before moving offshore. Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon hours, before the cold front clears moisture from the region. ..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025 Day 2 Outlook Image
November 26, 2025 at 5:40 AM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Nov 26, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low will move across the upper Great Lakes and into southwest Quebec, with a large area of cyclonic flow aloft across the central and eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will exist over the West, but will weaken as an upper low approaches the Pacific Northwest toward Thursday morning. At the surface, a deep low will also move from the Great Lakes region into western Quebec, with a large area of high pressure over the Plains and extending into the southeastern states and into the Gulf. While a cold front will be located over the central Carolinas and into the FL Panhandle early this morning, this boundary will push rapidly offshore by midday. Early day rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible along the front, but should generally weaken due to drying aloft. Elsewhere, lingering thunderstorms will be possible over far southern Texas as the cold front undercuts moisture over Deep South TX. This activity is also expected to weaken and/or be mostly offshore during the rest of the day, as drying continues over land. ..Jewell/Moore.. 11/26/2025 Day 1 Outlook Image
November 26, 2025 at 5:40 AM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Nov 26, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms remain possible from southern Alabama into western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle through late evening, and over Deep South Texas. ...AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... A marginally unstable air mass remains ahead of a cold front this evening, extending from northwest GA across central AL. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near/ahead of the front, with minimal indications of severe potential currently. However, PWAT values up to 1.50" persist, with minimal convective inhibition especially over southern areas. Southwest 850 mb winds near 30 kt is also supporting areas of 100-150 m2/s2 effective SRH, which could aid rotation in the stronger storms. As such, will maintain the Marginal Risk, with a low-end risk of a brief tornado or locally damaging gusts over the next several hours. ...Deep South TX... Weak easterly low-level flow persists this evening south of a developing cold front, with 70s F dewpoints onshore. The 00Z CRP sounding show minimal capping, though winds are weak below 700 mb. Farther south, the 00Z BRO soundings still indicates substantial capping. Latest radar already indicates convective showers may be developing inland. Conditionally, the environment supports hail over 1.00" diameter, with MLCAPE over 1500 J/kg and deep-layer effective shear around 50 kt. The primary uncertainty is due to weak lift. However, the cold front will eventually push south into the moist and unstable air mass later tonight, and this may result in sufficient lift for a few strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms with localized hail threat. As such, 5% hail probabilities have been added. ..Jewell.. 11/26/2025 Day 1 Outlook Image
November 26, 2025 at 5:40 AM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Nov 25, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on Thursday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the northeastern US and southern Canada will further amplify Thursday as ridging builds to the west ahead of a weaker shortwave trough over the Pacific. Broad and strong cyclonic flow aloft will overspread the eastern half of the US extending northwestward over the northern Rockies. At the surface, a strong low will occlude over eastern Canada while a cold front moves offshore over the east coast. In the wake of the front, high pressure will intensify as it moves southward into the central US. With surface high pressure and offshore flow expected in the wake of the departing cold front, thunderstorm potential over the US will be limited to far southern FL. Here, isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front Thursday afternoon. However, weak lapse rates and buoyancy should limit the severe threat. Occasional lightning is also possible over portions the eastern Great Lakes owing to warm water temps and cold air advection behind the upper low Thursday and Thursday evening. But, with cold thermodynamic profiles only modest supportive of mixed-phase precipitation, any lightning flashes should be sporadic and tied to deeper and more persistent lake-effect bands. ..Lyons.. 11/25/2025 Day 3 Outlook Image
November 25, 2025 at 10:40 PM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Nov 25, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from east central/southeast Mississippi across central Alabama into northwest Georgia through late evening. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...20z Update.. Only minor adjustments were made to extend the Slight Risk further southeast across southern Alabama with this update in alignment with recent trends. Occasional rotating cells are noted on radar across central/southern Alabama over the last couple of hours. Daytime heating will continue across this region with occasional stronger cell development expected through the afternoon. VAD profiles from BMX, MXX continue to show favorable low-level curvature of hodographs, indicative of SRH rich environments supporting rotating cells. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage, and isolated large hail remain possible. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025/ ...MS/AL/GA through late evening... A weakening midlevel trough will continue to eject east-northeastward from the TN Valley to the Appalachians, in advance of an amplifying trough from the northern Plains to the upper MS Valley. An associated/weak surface cold front will move southeastward across LA/MS/AL, though the majority of the convective threat today will be focused along a residual outflow boundary from east central MS into central AL. Low-level recovery into northeast AL/northwest GA will depend on some clearing of clouds/rain, which is uncertain. Along and south of this boundary, that is being loosely reinforced by ongoing convection, warming surface temperatures into the 70s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will linger into the afternoon and support additional thunderstorm development, and there will be sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for a couple of supercells. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be greatest along the residual outflow (per the BMX VWP) through the afternoon, and then low-level flow will weaken by this evening. A couple of tornadoes and isolated wind damage/large hail will be possible this afternoon into this evening. Day 1 Outlook Image
November 25, 2025 at 10:40 PM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Tornado Watch 641 Status Reports
⛈️WFO...BMX🌪️
Additional Details Here.
STATUS REPORT ON WW 641 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MOB TO 50 SSE MEI TO 10 SSE TCL TO 25 WNW BHM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2232 ..WENDT..11/25/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 641 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-013-017-021-025-027-035-037-041-047-051-065-073-081- 085-087-091-099-101-105-111-117-121-123-129-131-252240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BUTLER CHAMBERS CHILTON CLARKE CLAY CONECUH COOSA CRENSHAW DALLAS ELMORE HALE JEFFERSON LEE LOWNDES MACON MARENGO MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY RANDOLPH SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. WW 0641 Status Image
November 25, 2025 at 9:40 PM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Tornado Watch 641
⛈️
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY🌪️
Additional Details Here.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 641 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and southern Alabama Extreme southeast Mississippi * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 600 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A few supercells will be possible through this afternoon/evening from extreme southeast Mississippi northeastward into central Alabama. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage with thunderstorms gusts to 60 mph, and isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter are the main threats. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles east northeast of Tuscaloosa AL to 50 miles west southwest of Evergreen AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Thompson WW 0641 Image
November 25, 2025 at 9:40 PM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Tornado Watch 641 Status Reports
⛈️WFO...BMX🌪️
Additional Details Here.
STATUS REPORT ON WW 641 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..11/25/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 641 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-013-021-023-025-027-035-037-041-047-051-063-065-073- 085-091-099-101-105-117-119-121-123-125-129-131-252040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BUTLER CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY CONECUH COOSA CRENSHAW DALLAS ELMORE GREENE HALE JEFFERSON LOWNDES MARENGO MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX MSC041-111-153-252040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREENE PERRY WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE WW 0641 Status Image
November 25, 2025 at 7:40 PM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Tornado Watch 641
⛈️
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY🌪️
Additional Details Here.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 641 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and southern Alabama Extreme southeast Mississippi * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 600 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A few supercells will be possible through this afternoon/evening from extreme southeast Mississippi northeastward into central Alabama. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage with thunderstorms gusts to 60 mph, and isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter are the main threats. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles east northeast of Tuscaloosa AL to 50 miles west southwest of Evergreen AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Thompson WW 0641 Image
November 25, 2025 at 7:40 PM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Tornado Watch 641 Status Reports
⛈️🌪️
Additional Details Here.
STATUS FOR WATCH 0641 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET WW 0641 Status Image
November 25, 2025 at 6:20 PM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Tornado Watch 641
⛈️
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY🌪️
Additional Details Here.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 641 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and southern Alabama Extreme southeast Mississippi * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 600 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A few supercells will be possible through this afternoon/evening from extreme southeast Mississippi northeastward into central Alabama. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage with thunderstorms gusts to 60 mph, and isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter are the main threats. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles east northeast of Tuscaloosa AL to 50 miles west southwest of Evergreen AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Thompson WW 0641 Image
November 25, 2025 at 6:20 PM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Nov 25, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from east central/southeast Mississippi across central Alabama into northwest Georgia through late evening. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage and isolated large hail will all be possible. ...MS/AL/GA through late evening... A weakening midlevel trough will continue to eject east-northeastward from the TN Valley to the Appalachians, in advance of an amplifying trough from the northern Plains to the upper MS Valley. An associated/weak surface cold front will move southeastward across LA/MS/AL, though the majority of the convective threat today will be focused along a residual outflow boundary from east central MS into central AL. Low-level recovery into northeast AL/northwest GA will depend on some clearing of clouds/rain, which is uncertain. Along and south of this boundary, that is being loosely reinforced by ongoing convection, warming surface temperatures into the 70s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints will contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will linger into the afternoon and support additional thunderstorm development, and there will be sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for a couple of supercells. Low-level shear/hodograph curvature will be greatest along the residual outflow (per the BMX VWP) through the afternoon, and then low-level flow will weaken by this evening. A couple of tornadoes and isolated wind damage/large hail will be possible this afternoon into this evening. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 11/25/2025 Day 1 Outlook Image
November 25, 2025 at 4:40 PM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Nov 25, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
⛈️THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA🌪️
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0621 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast/Deep South this morning into the early evening hours. A couple tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and central Alabama. ...MS/AL/GA... A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is moving across west TN/northern MS. Strong forcing for ascent ahead of this trough has resulted in a fast-moving line of showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern AL this morning - now moving into northwest GA. These storms are tracking into a progressively less unstable air mass, with surface dewpoints only in the mid 50s. This should limit downdraft penetration to the surface and diminish the risk of gusty/damaging winds in the next couple of hours. In the wake of this activity, southerly low-level winds will allow gradual return of the moist and moderately unstable air mass into east-central MS and central/northern AL. Large-scale forcing will be weak the rest of the day, but pockets of daytime heating may be sufficient for the re-development of scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon. Those storms that form will be in an environment of 20-30 knots of southerly low-level winds and sufficient deep-layer shear to promote transient supercell structures. Therefore have maintained the ongoing SLGT risk, despite weak forcing mechanisms. Gusty winds and a risk of a few tornadoes are the main concern. ..Hart/Dean.. 11/25/2025 Day 1 Outlook Image
November 25, 2025 at 1:40 PM
spc-storms.nws-bot.us
SPC Tornado Watch 640 Status Reports
⛈️WFO...JAN🌪️
Additional Details Here.
STATUS REPORT ON WW 640 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE ESF TO 75 NE HEZ TO 55 NW MEI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2228 ..DEAN..11/25/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 640 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC023-061-065-069-075-077-101-123-127-129-251140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS KEMPER LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE NEWTON SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. WW 0640 Status Image
November 25, 2025 at 11:00 AM