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SPC Fire Weather Outlooks Alerts (UNOFFICIAL)
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Fri, 13 Feb 2026 19:47:25 +0000
🔥Rio Grande Valley🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Rio Grande Valley... A mid-level trough and associated jet will move into the Southern Plains Saturday. A corresponding deepening surface low across the OK/TX Red River Valley will aid in pushing a trailing cold front and attendant drier air mass into south-central TX by Saturday evening. Substantial wetting rainfall should remain to the north of the Rio Grande Saturday, although some uncertainty remains in RH reductions lower than 20-25% by the afternoon. Confined elevated highlights to lower elevations near the Rio Grande in south-central TX where RH is more likely to reach 20% amid northwest winds of 15-20 mph in the post-frontal environment. ..Williams.. 02/13/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the southern Plains through the day on Saturday. This will mix a dryline eastward across portions of central and south Texas by afternoon. To the west of this dryline along the Rio Grande Valley, winds are expected to gust to 25-30 mph along with RH rapidly decreasing to near 15-25% in the presence of dry fuels. Currently, it appears as though most of the precipitation through Saturday evening will remain to the north and east of this region, though some light precipitation may fall on Saturday morning. This represents some uncertainty as to the overall fire weather risk, however, given the dry antecedent conditions, will introduce an Elevated area across portions of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 13, 2026 at 8:00 PM
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Fri, 13 Feb 2026 16:14:26 +0000
🔥NO CRITICAL AREAS🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Southeast... A dry air mass associated with surface high pressure moving into the Mid Atlantic will support minimum relative humidity as low as 15 percent across portions of the southeast and northern FL today. Although dry fuels are present, a diffuse surface pressure gradient will promote light winds of 10 mph or less across much of the Southeast, limiting a broader fire weather threat. However, brief and localized elevated fire weather concerns are still possible across the coastal plains of GA/SC where sustained northeast winds of 10 mph, relative humidity below 20 percent and dry fuels align. ...Southern Plains... Increasing mid and upper-level moisture and associated cloud cover ahead of a pronounced short wave trough entering the Southwest is observed overspreading the Southern Plains. At the surface, lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains continues to usher in deeper boundary layer moisture from the Gulf into TX/OK. These factors should largely subdue fire weather concerns today, with wetting rains expected tonight into Day 2 across much of the Southern Plains as the short wave ejects into the region. ..Williams.. 02/13/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet max will traverse the southwestern CONUS through the day today, bringing mid-level moisture from the Pacific. Additionally, with the lee troughing across the southern high Plains, moist air is expected to surge northward cross the southern Plains. This is expected to promote widespread precipitation in these regions, minimizing fire weather concerns. Elsewhere, surface high pressure associated with northwesterly flow aloft should settle across the eastern CONUS, and the light winds associated with the high pressure should keep fire concerns minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 13, 2026 at 4:20 PM
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Fri, 13 Feb 2026 06:16:25 +0000
🔥NO CRITICAL AREAS🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the southern Plains through the day on Saturday. This will mix a dryline eastward across portions of central and south Texas by afternoon. To the west of this dryline along the Rio Grande Valley, winds are expected to gust to 25-30 mph along with RH rapidly decreasing to near 15-25% in the presence of dry fuels. Currently, it appears as though most of the precipitation through Saturday evening will remain to the north and east of this region, though some light precipitation may fall on Saturday morning. This represents some uncertainty as to the overall fire weather risk, however, given the dry antecedent conditions, will introduce an Elevated area across portions of the Rio Grande Valley. ..Supinie.. 02/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 13, 2026 at 8:40 AM
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Fri, 13 Feb 2026 06:15:25 +0000
🔥NO CRITICAL AREAS🔥
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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet max will traverse the southwestern CONUS through the day today, bringing mid-level moisture from the Pacific. Additionally, with the lee troughing across the southern high Plains, moist air is expected to surge northward cross the southern Plains. This is expected to promote widespread precipitation in these regions, minimizing fire weather concerns. Elsewhere, surface high pressure associated with northwesterly flow aloft should settle across the eastern CONUS, and the light winds associated with the high pressure should keep fire concerns minimal. ..Supinie.. 02/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 13, 2026 at 6:20 AM
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Thu, 12 Feb 2026 22:06:17 +0000
🔥Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande Valley: Day 3/Saturday🔥
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Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Very active upper and mid-level flow will persist across CONUS through the extended forecast period. An upper trough and associated surface low will move from the southern High Plains early Day 3/Saturday eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through Day 4/Sunday. Another upper-level trough enters the West on Day 5/Monday, progressing east over the Central and Southern High Plains. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected this weekend and early next week, given persistent strong mid-level flow and increasing western US troughing. ...Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande Valley: Day 3/Saturday... Dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop Day 3/Saturday afternoon/evening as the mid/upper-level trough impinges on the area and an associated surface low strengthens over the Southern Plains. Precipitation on Day 3/Saturday will likely be localized and fairly minimal in the early afternoon hours before a dryline shifts southeastward. As such, the aforementioned area could see RH values between 15-25 percent and west-northwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph for a few hours in the late afternoon. A 40% probability of Critical fire weather conditions are maintained where the dry and breezy conditions will likely overlap dry fuels. ...Central and Southern High Plains, Texas Rio Grande Valley: Day 4/Sunday... Fire weather conditions are expected to increase across portions of the Central High Plains as a mid-level trough approaches from the west and a surface lee cyclone strengthens. A region of strong mid-level flow combined with surface low pressure east of the Rockies will support strong surface winds, especially if deep mixing occurs. A 40% probability of Critical fire weather conditions has been introduced for parts of CO, WY and NE where dry westerly downslope winds will overlap dry fuels. There is some uncertainty in the overall extent and amount of precipitation on Day 2/Friday and Day 3/Saturday, precluding the introduction of probabilities for the Southern High Plains. However, low RH and strong southwesterly winds are expected and may lead to future highlights as confidence increases in rainfall placement and amounts. Additionally, lingering dry and strong northwesterly surface winds in the Texas Rio Grande Valley may generate locally enhanced fire weather conditions on Day 4/Sunday. ...Southern High Plains: Day 5/Monday... Dry and breezy conditions will continue on Day 5/Monday as a blended setup of downslope winds and dry return flow develop behind lee troughing. Increasing surface southwesterly flow and low relative humidity could support increasing fire weather potential, though as mentioned in D4/Sunday, the extent and amount of precipitation over the weekend precludes the introduction of probabilities. ...Central and Southern High Plains: Day 6/Tuesday... A secondary mid-level trough will move from western CONUS across the Rockies into the Central and Southern High Plains region. Robust mid-level flow atop a deepening surface low will bring very strong winds across the Central and Southern High Plains. Downslope winds and critically low RH values could overlap dry fuels that may not receive rainfall earlier in the forecast period, lending to the introduction of a 40% probability for Critical fire weather conditions in the Southern Plains. Given the uncertainty in wetting rainfall potential and the extent of daytime cloud cover, changes to probabilities are possible in future outlooks. ...D7/Wednesday - D8/Thursday... Varying model trends and significant timing differences lend to lower predictability in the latter part of the forecast period. However, the pattern hints at a continuation of potential critical fire weather conditions later in the week. Nonetheless, this is conditional upon fuel moisture given the possibility of rainfall earlier in the forecast period. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 12, 2026 at 10:20 PM
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Thu, 12 Feb 2026 19:38:25 +0000
🔥NO CRITICAL AREAS🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes, fire weather concerns are minimal. Please see the previous forecast discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will traverse the Southeast as a mid-level trough overspreads the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday). Surface high pressure and associated cooler temperatures will linger over the Appalachians and points east. Meanwhile, surface low development over the southern Plains will promote a continued moistening low-level airmass, along with appreciable rainfall accumulations from showers and thunderstorms. As such, quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across the CONUS on Friday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 12, 2026 at 8:00 PM
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Thu, 12 Feb 2026 15:30:26 +0000
🔥NO CRITICAL AREAS🔥
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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0928 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Morning Update... A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon in the lee of the Lewis Range in northwestern Montana. Relative humidity will fall between 15-25 percent with westerly downslope surface winds sustained at 10-20 mph. These conditions will overlap a fairly dry fuelscape, allowing for localized fire weather potential. Otherwise, minimal fire weather conditions are expected across the rest of CONUS. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/12/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will prevail over the Plains as a mid-level trough approaches from the west, and another upper trough progresses further over the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure will dominate over the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, with moist return flow expected over the southern Plains given potential weak surface low development. Overall, quiescent fire weather conditions are expected CONUS wide. However, a dry low-level airmass will overspread portions of the Southeast and the central High Plains, supporting drying fuels and perhaps localized wildfire growth potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Thu, 12 Feb 2026 06:56:25 +0000
🔥NO CRITICAL AREAS🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will traverse the Southeast as a mid-level trough overspreads the Southern Plains tomorrow (Friday). Surface high pressure and associated cooler temperatures will linger over the Appalachians and points east. Meanwhile, surface low development over the southern Plains will promote a continued moistening low-level airmass, along with appreciable rainfall accumulations from showers and thunderstorms. As such, quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across the CONUS on Friday. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 12, 2026 at 7:00 AM
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Thu, 12 Feb 2026 06:55:26 +0000
🔥NO CRITICAL AREAS🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will prevail over the Plains as a mid-level trough approaches from the west, and another upper trough progresses further over the Atlantic today. Surface high pressure will dominate over the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast, with moist return flow expected over the southern Plains given potential weak surface low development. Overall, quiescent fire weather conditions are expected CONUS wide. However, a dry low-level airmass will overspread portions of the Southeast and the central High Plains, supporting drying fuels and perhaps localized wildfire growth potential. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 12, 2026 at 7:00 AM
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Wed, 11 Feb 2026 21:56:15 +0000
🔥Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande Valley: Day 4/Saturday🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Very active upper and mid-level flow will persist across CONUS through the extended forecast period. An upper trough and associated surface low will move from the southern High Plains early Day 4/Saturday eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through Day 5/Sunday. Another upper-level trough enters the West on Day 6/Monday, progressing east over the Central and Southern High Plains. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather is expected this weekend and possibly early next week, given the strong mid-level flow and increasing western US troughing. ...Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande Valley: Day 4/Saturday... Dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop Day 4/Saturday afternoon/evening as the mid/upper-level trough impinges on the area and an associated surface low strengthens over the Southern Plains. Uncertainties remain regarding precipitation placement on Day 1/Wednesday and also Day 4/Saturday. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest a relative minimum in precipitation across portions of South Texas into the Rio Grande Valley. The aforementioned area could see RH values between 15-25 percent and west-northwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph. A 40% probability of Critical fire weather conditions will be maintained where the dry and breezy conditions will likely overlap dry fuels. ...Southern and Central High Plains: Day 5/Sunday - Day 6/Monday... Fire weather conditions may increase across portions of the Southern and Central High Plains on Day 5/Sunday and Day 6/Monday as a mid-level trough approaches from the west and a surface lee cyclone strengthens. Increasing southerly flow and low relative humidity could support increasing fire weather potential given dry fuels. There is some uncertainty given the potential for precipitation this weekend, precluding the introduction of probabilities currently. Later in the week (Day 7/Tuesday - Day 8/Wednesday) the secondary mid-level trough will move from the west across the Rockies into the Central and Southern High Plains region. Varying model trends and significant timing differences lend to lower predictability regarding the evolution of this system. However, the potential exists for a strong lee-cyclone and downslope flow supporting Critical fire weather conditions later in the week. Nonetheless, this is conditional upon fuel moisture given the possibility of rainfall earlier in the forecast period. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 11, 2026 at 10:00 PM
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Wed, 11 Feb 2026 18:32:25 +0000
🔥NO CRITICAL AREAS🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... As mentioned in the previous discussion, recent guidance has trended towards higher RH values of 20-25 percent across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle Thursday afternoon. As such, fire weather highlights were withheld. However, westerly surface winds of 15-20 mph atop dry fuels could support locally elevated fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns are minimal. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the Plains States while a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, and another upper trough traverses the Desert Southwest tomorrow (Thursday). Similar to Day 1, surface high pressure and associated cooler conditions should prevail from the Mississippi River to the East Coast, while moist southerly flow from the Gulf continues over the Plains. As such, another day of relatively quiescent fire weather conditions is in store for the CONUS. Some consideration was given to the addition of Elevated highlights along the northeast New Mexico/northern Texas Panhandle border given relatively dry downslope flow expected tomorrow afternoon. However, RH has trended higher in some of the more recent guidance, precluding fire weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 11, 2026 at 6:40 PM
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Wed, 11 Feb 2026 15:26:25 +0000
🔥NO CRITICAL AREAS🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0924 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Morning Update... A couple hours of dry and breezy weather conditions are expected with a passing cold front this afternoon across central North Carolina. RH may drop as low as 25 percent with NW sustained winds 5-10 mph and gusts up to 20 mph. However, with recent rainfall and marginal fuels, fire weather highlights will not be included. Elsewhere, minimal fire weather conditions are expected today. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/11/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist over the central U.S. as upper troughs traverse the East and West Coasts today, resulting in moist return flow across the Plains as surface high pressure and cool conditions prevail east of the Mississippi River. The lack of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the CONUS should limit significant wildfire-spread potential through the Day 1 period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 11, 2026 at 4:00 PM
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Wed, 11 Feb 2026 05:55:25 +0000
🔥NO CRITICAL AREAS🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist across the Plains States while a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, and another upper trough traverses the Desert Southwest tomorrow (Thursday). Similar to Day 1, surface high pressure and associated cooler conditions should prevail from the Mississippi River to the East Coast, while moist southerly flow from the Gulf continues over the Plains. As such, another day of relatively quiescent fire weather conditions is in store for the CONUS. Some consideration was given to the addition of Elevated highlights along the northeast New Mexico/northern Texas Panhandle border given relatively dry downslope flow expected tomorrow afternoon. However, RH has trended higher in some of the more recent guidance, precluding fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 02/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 11, 2026 at 6:00 AM
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Wed, 11 Feb 2026 05:51:25 +0000
🔥NO CRITICAL AREAS🔥
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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist over the central U.S. as upper troughs traverse the East and West Coasts today, resulting in moist return flow across the Plains as surface high pressure and cool conditions prevail east of the Mississippi River. The lack of overlapping dry and windy conditions across the CONUS should limit significant wildfire-spread potential through the Day 1 period. ..Squitieri.. 02/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 11, 2026 at 6:00 AM
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Tue, 10 Feb 2026 21:36:14 +0000
🔥Southern High Plains: Day 3/Thursday🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive mid/upper-level pattern is forecast to remain over the CONUS through early next week. The combination of an enhanced area of zonal mid-level flow over the Rockies on Day 3/Thursday coupled with a shortwave trough moving into the southern High Plains will encourage development of a weak lee surface low. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to gradually progress eastward, reaching the Southern Plains Day 5/Saturday and the Southeast Day 6/Sunday. Another substantial mid/upper-level trough is forecast to come onshore across the Western U.S. late this weekend into early next week. ...Southern High Plains: Day 3/Thursday... Gusty and dry westerly downslope surface winds are expected to develop Day 3/Thursday afternoon across portions of New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. At least a few hours of Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions appear likely amidst critically receptive fuels before a cold front (and associated northerly wind shift) move through the area during the overnight. ...Rio Grande Valley and South Texas: Day 5/Saturday - Day 6/Sunday... Dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop Day 5/Saturday afternoon/evening as the aforementioned mid/upper-level trough impinges on the area and an associated surface low strengthens over the Southern Plains. While some uncertainties remain regarding precipitation placement on Day 2/Wednesday and also Day 5/Saturday and its impact on fuel status, ensemble guidance continues to suggest a relative minimum in precipitation across portions of South Texas into the Rio Grande Valley. A 40% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where locally Critical conditions currently appear most likely. Fire weather concerns may linger into Day 6/Sunday, though confidence is currently too low to introduce Critical probabilities. ...Southwest and the Southern/Central High Plains: Day 6/Sunday - Day 8/Tuesday... Fire weather conditions may increase across portions of the Southwest Day 6/Sunday and the High Plains Day 7/Monday into early next week as the aforementioned secondary trough (and enhanced mid-level flow) overspread the area and a surface lee cyclone strengthens. While fire weather highlights may eventually be needed, increasing model spread reduces confidence which precludes introducing Critical fire weather probabilities at this time. ..Elliott/Garcia.. 02/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 10, 2026 at 10:00 PM
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Tue, 10 Feb 2026 19:01:25 +0000
🔥NO CRITICAL AREAS🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's (Wednesday) fire weather forecast remains on-track. Please see the previous discussion below for additional information. ..Elliott/Garcia.. 02/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies off of the East Coast, and another upper trough impinges on the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Surface high pressure will remain in place east of the Mississippi River, with surface troughing and some moist return flow likely over the Plains. The overall large-scale pattern suggests that quiescent fire weather conditions will be the norm across the CONUS on Wednesday, with no fire weather highlights needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 10, 2026 at 7:20 PM
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Tue, 10 Feb 2026 16:23:25 +0000
🔥NO CRITICAL AREAS🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Warm and extremely dry (minimum RH values near 25%) conditions may promote a few hours of locally Elevated fire weather conditions through this evening across the northern half of the Florida Peninsula. Although fuels remain receptive to fire spread (owing to ongoing drought conditions), sustained surface winds speeds at or below 10 mph should limit more widespread concerns and precludes introducing an Elevated fire weather area. Please see the previous discussion for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott/Garcia.. 02/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will prevail over the Rockies as a broad mid-level trough traverses the Northeast, and a second upper trough overspreads the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and an associated cooler airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, and is expected to limit wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 10, 2026 at 4:40 PM
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Tue, 10 Feb 2026 07:47:11 +0000
🔥NO CRITICAL AREAS🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will persist over the Plains as a mid-level trough amplifies off of the East Coast, and another upper trough impinges on the Southwest tomorrow (Wednesday). Surface high pressure will remain in place east of the Mississippi River, with surface troughing and some moist return flow likely over the Plains. The overall large-scale pattern suggests that quiescent fire weather conditions will be the norm across the CONUS on Wednesday, with no fire weather highlights needed. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 10, 2026 at 9:20 AM
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Tue, 10 Feb 2026 07:46:25 +0000
🔥NO CRITICAL AREAS🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will prevail over the Rockies as a broad mid-level trough traverses the Northeast, and a second upper trough overspreads the West Coast today. Surface high pressure and an associated cooler airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies, and is expected to limit wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 10, 2026 at 8:00 AM
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Mon, 09 Feb 2026 21:46:14 +0000
🔥Southern High Plains D4/Thursday🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Progressive mid-level flow will continue over the US through next week. Strong westerly winds will continue to increase over the Rockies and Plains through this week and into the weekend. This will encourage westerly downslope flow and lee troughing late this week. By this weekend a more substantial trough should emerge and deepen over the southern US. Some potential for more active fire-weather conditions appears possible over southern TX through this weekend. The active toughing pattern should continue into next week. ...Southern High Plains D4/Thursday... With zonal flow increasing over parts of the southern Rockies mid to late week, a shortwave trough is expected to move into the southern High Plains. Strong westerly flow will support the development of a weak lee low D4/Thursday. South of the low, enhanced westerly downslope flow is expected from eastern NM into west TX. Bolstered by stronger westerly winds and deep mixing, afternoon gusts of 15-25 mph appear possible. The strong winds will likely overlap with a warm and dry air mass with relative humidity below 20%. With little recent rainfall in the area, the overlap of dry fuels and elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible before a cold front moves south into D5/Friday. A 40% area has been added for D4/Thursday. ...Rio Grande Valley and South Texas D5/Friday-D7/Sunday... The more prominent upper trough over Baja CA and northern MEX will translate eastward D5/Friday into the weekend. Strong ascent will overspread the far Southern Plains into parts of South TX and the Rio Grande. A lee low will move off the MEX High Plateau supporting inland moisture advection over parts of south TX. Widespread precipitation (projected QPF in the 0.5-2 inch range) is expected to develop north of the surface low along a stalled front across portions of central TX into OK and the mid to lower MS Valley. This should largely limit fire-weather potential farther north. D6/Saturday, dry and breezy surface conditions may develop behind the departing low from the TX Big Bend to the Rio Grande Valley. Trailing the low, a Pacific Front will move east with much drier air mass behind it. Strong west/northwesterly flow on the backside of the low may mix down increasing surface winds to 20 mph. This could support the potential for fire-weather conditions D6/Saturday. However, model spread on the potential for precipitation, the frontal passage, and impacts to area fuels remains too uncertain to introduce probabilities at this time. By D7/Sunday, the upper trough and Surface low will move eastward. A temporarily cooler air mass will fill in, before southerly winds start to build again into next week. Strong troughing over the West should continue, spreading strong flow aloft over parts of the Southwest and Plains. This appears likely to support a general increase in fire-weather concerns with time through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Lyons/Elizalde-Garcia.. 02/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 9, 2026 at 10:00 PM
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Mon, 09 Feb 2026 18:53:25 +0000
🔥NO CRITICAL AREAS🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will amplify over the Rockies as a mid-level trough progresses over the Great Lakes toward the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). This upper-air pattern will aid in driving a surface cold front southward across the central into the southern CONUS through the period, reinforced by surface high pressure. As a result, a relatively cooler and moist low-level airmass will overspread the Plains, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 9, 2026 at 7:00 PM
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Mon, 09 Feb 2026 16:32:25 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA,FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...Southern High Plains... Several hours of widespread elevated and critical fire weather conditions are expected across the Southern High Plains this afternoon. Current guidance is still on track for strong west-southwesterly winds of 20-25 mph gusting to 40 mph in some areas and RH decreasing to 10-15 percent atop a dry fuelscape. An expansion of the Elevated area was added along the southern foothills of Colorado to include a corridor of strong winds and low RH overlapping potentially receptive fuels. ...Central High Plains... Increased mid-level cloud cover and passage of a cold front across eastern Wyoming and northern Nebraska this afternoon may inhibit deeper mixing and limit the temporal extent of more critical fire weather conditions. However, a few hours of dry and breezy conditions atop dry fuels should still support fire weather concerns today. The Elevated and Critical areas are unchanged, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elizalde-Garcia/Lyons.. 02/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026/ ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will overspread the central and eastern CONUS today, with a pronounced mid-level impulse poised to crest the ridge over the central Plains. An elongated surface low will form over the central Plains, with dry northwesterly flow overspreading parts of the central Plains within a post-cold frontal regime, and dry downslope flow occurring ahead of a surface trough over the southern High Plains. Over both areas, the dry and windy surface conditions will foster wildfire-spread potential. ...Central High Plains... Guidance differs somewhat regarding how dry the surface airmass will become by afternoon peak heating behind the cold front over the central High Plains. Nonetheless, RH may dip as low as 15-20 percent amid 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds, atop drying fuels. Even if RH does not reach Critical thresholds, the stronger post-cold frontal winds atop dry fuels should compensate to support wildfire spread. ...Southern High Plains... By afternoon peak heating, dry downslope flow, in combination with a very deep and dry boundary layer, will support RH dipping into the 10-15 percent range as sustained west-southwesterly surface winds exceed 20 mph for several hours. The current guidance consensus still depicts the best corridor for Critical conditions over northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and immediate surrounding areas. Given guidance consistency in such conditions and continued drying fuels, Critical highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 9, 2026 at 5:00 PM
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Mon, 09 Feb 2026 07:50:25 +0000
🔥NO CRITICAL AREAS🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will amplify over the Rockies as a mid-level trough progresses over the Great Lakes toward the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday). This upper-air pattern will aid in driving a surface cold front southward across the central into the southern CONUS through the period, reinforced by surface high pressure. As a result, a relatively cooler and moist low-level airmass will overspread the Plains, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 9, 2026 at 8:00 AM
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Mon, 09 Feb 2026 07:16:26 +0000
🔥CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...Synopsis... Broad upper ridging will overspread the central and eastern CONUS today, with a pronounced mid-level impulse poised to crest the ridge over the central Plains. An elongated surface low will form over the central Plains, with dry northwesterly flow overspreading parts of the central Plains within a post-cold frontal regime, and dry downslope flow occurring ahead of a surface trough over the southern High Plains. Over both areas, the dry and windy surface conditions will foster wildfire-spread potential. ...Central High Plains... Guidance differs somewhat regarding how dry the surface airmass will become by afternoon peak heating behind the cold front over the central High Plains. Nonetheless, RH may dip as low as 15-20 percent amid 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds, atop drying fuels. Even if RH does not reach Critical thresholds, the stronger post-cold frontal winds atop dry fuels should compensate to support wildfire spread. ...Southern High Plains... By afternoon peak heating, dry downslope flow, in combination with a very deep and dry boundary layer, will support RH dipping into the 10-15 percent range as sustained west-southwesterly surface winds exceed 20 mph for several hours. The current guidance consensus still depicts the best corridor for Critical conditions over northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and immediate surrounding areas. Given guidance consistency in such conditions and continued drying fuels, Critical highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 9, 2026 at 7:40 AM
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook posted at Sun, 08 Feb 2026 22:00:15 +0000
🔥Southwest and Plains🔥
Additional Details Here.
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Active mid-level flow will continue to intensify this week as troughing gradually deepens over the West. Episodic troughing will overspread the Southwest and Plains through midweek. Gusty downslope winds are possible in the lee of the Rockies and southern Plains. This will continue into next weekend when more substantial troughing appears likely to emerge over the central US. While fire-weather conditions will remaining localize initially, the increase in westerly flow overlapped with unusually warm/dry conditions should increase fire-weather concerns later in the forecast cycle. ...Southwest and Plains... A southern stream shortwave trough will move from the southern Rockies and over the Southwest and far southern Plains D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday. This trough will support a weak lee low bolstering some gusty westerly winds over parts of eastern NM and west TX ahead of a weak cold front. Some localized fire-weather concerns are possible given dry fuels and above normal temperature, though the area extent is uncertain. More substantial troughing is expected to develop later into the week and into next weekend as strong flow aloft continues to move southward. Lee troughing will increase westerly surface winds across parts of the High Plains D5/Thursday potentially supporting some potential for more active fire-weather conditions. However, ensemble spread increases substantially. Additionally, the increase in troughing will coincide with the potential for precipitation. Given this uncertainty, no probabilities will be drawn for now despite the expectation of a general increase in fire-weather potential next week. ..Lyons.. 02/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Image
February 8, 2026 at 10:20 PM