Boris Sobolev
@sobor.bsky.social
Causal questions, counterfactual answers
According to Fisher, it’s about ‘testing observed differences between average outcomes of groups treated differently’
January 24, 2025 at 10:10 PM
According to Fisher, it’s about ‘testing observed differences between average outcomes of groups treated differently’
Well, math makes no sense to those who don’t know it, right? For the rest of us, a random function would suffice… no counterfactuals, no strawman, no crows, no windmills… 👇🏻
January 23, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Well, math makes no sense to those who don’t know it, right? For the rest of us, a random function would suffice… no counterfactuals, no strawman, no crows, no windmills… 👇🏻
ah, you transitioned from math notation to pics 😊… ok, let’s do a pictorial argument
January 23, 2025 at 1:17 PM
ah, you transitioned from math notation to pics 😊… ok, let’s do a pictorial argument
sometimes, a flower is just a flower
December 24, 2024 at 4:33 PM
sometimes, a flower is just a flower
Un laberinto de tentaciones
December 23, 2024 at 3:34 AM
Un laberinto de tentaciones
If you've never tasted the dishes prepared by la chefa Anayeli Suazo of Tentaciones, you don't know what a gourmet meal is and what it looks like.
December 21, 2024 at 3:49 AM
If you've never tasted the dishes prepared by la chefa Anayeli Suazo of Tentaciones, you don't know what a gourmet meal is and what it looks like.
Nothing can beat sleeping until noon on vacation
December 20, 2024 at 11:34 PM
Nothing can beat sleeping until noon on vacation
Wondering about #causal mediation analysis in comparative effectiveness research? Check out our framework for the mediating effect of treatment time of 2 treatment methods for complex coronary artery disease.
doi.org/10.9778/cmaj...
doi.org/10.9778/cmaj...
November 23, 2024 at 7:00 PM
Wondering about #causal mediation analysis in comparative effectiveness research? Check out our framework for the mediating effect of treatment time of 2 treatment methods for complex coronary artery disease.
doi.org/10.9778/cmaj...
doi.org/10.9778/cmaj...
You mean, this Fisher? 👇🏻
A denier of causal relationship btw tobacco smoking and lung cancer? yet ‘seeing’ causality btw race and the quality of ‘human stock’? Btw ‘high intellectual calibre’ of parents and their offsprings? Inverse link btw ‘fertility’ and ‘achievement’ of most valuable classes?
A denier of causal relationship btw tobacco smoking and lung cancer? yet ‘seeing’ causality btw race and the quality of ‘human stock’? Btw ‘high intellectual calibre’ of parents and their offsprings? Inverse link btw ‘fertility’ and ‘achievement’ of most valuable classes?
November 20, 2024 at 4:17 PM
You mean, this Fisher? 👇🏻
A denier of causal relationship btw tobacco smoking and lung cancer? yet ‘seeing’ causality btw race and the quality of ‘human stock’? Btw ‘high intellectual calibre’ of parents and their offsprings? Inverse link btw ‘fertility’ and ‘achievement’ of most valuable classes?
A denier of causal relationship btw tobacco smoking and lung cancer? yet ‘seeing’ causality btw race and the quality of ‘human stock’? Btw ‘high intellectual calibre’ of parents and their offsprings? Inverse link btw ‘fertility’ and ‘achievement’ of most valuable classes?
That’s not what Fisher has envisioned: he argued that randomization allows to test for difference in means between the groups. 👇🏻
That’s all there’s to it. Taking it as a causal effect comes from reasoning.
That’s all there’s to it. Taking it as a causal effect comes from reasoning.
November 19, 2024 at 9:10 PM
That’s not what Fisher has envisioned: he argued that randomization allows to test for difference in means between the groups. 👇🏻
That’s all there’s to it. Taking it as a causal effect comes from reasoning.
That’s all there’s to it. Taking it as a causal effect comes from reasoning.
There’s this misconception that causal evidence comes from data.
It comes from reasoning.
Unless, of course, the High Priests of EBM Pyramid deny us mere mortals the ability to think.
It comes from reasoning.
Unless, of course, the High Priests of EBM Pyramid deny us mere mortals the ability to think.
November 19, 2024 at 8:02 PM
There’s this misconception that causal evidence comes from data.
It comes from reasoning.
Unless, of course, the High Priests of EBM Pyramid deny us mere mortals the ability to think.
It comes from reasoning.
Unless, of course, the High Priests of EBM Pyramid deny us mere mortals the ability to think.
I’ve always been puzzled by my aversion to interpreting RCT outputs as evidence. Finally, I figured it out.
An RCT’s output, vaunted as assumption-free, are in fact not falsifiable. There is nothing to falsify.
That what makes EBM Priests so pompous: they present infallible evidence.😂
An RCT’s output, vaunted as assumption-free, are in fact not falsifiable. There is nothing to falsify.
That what makes EBM Priests so pompous: they present infallible evidence.😂
November 19, 2024 at 7:40 PM
I’ve always been puzzled by my aversion to interpreting RCT outputs as evidence. Finally, I figured it out.
An RCT’s output, vaunted as assumption-free, are in fact not falsifiable. There is nothing to falsify.
That what makes EBM Priests so pompous: they present infallible evidence.😂
An RCT’s output, vaunted as assumption-free, are in fact not falsifiable. There is nothing to falsify.
That what makes EBM Priests so pompous: they present infallible evidence.😂
The evangelists of EBM gospel fail to realize that the ATE in randomized trials not only involves counterfactuals, but actually answers a counterfactual question.👇🏻
November 19, 2024 at 4:51 PM
The evangelists of EBM gospel fail to realize that the ATE in randomized trials not only involves counterfactuals, but actually answers a counterfactual question.👇🏻
There’s this misconception that probability of diverging outcomes of alternative treatments is just a theoretical consideration
Here’s the probability of benefit (survival if treated early, mortality if not) estimated empirically.
Each bar shows the range of its possible values.
Here’s the probability of benefit (survival if treated early, mortality if not) estimated empirically.
Each bar shows the range of its possible values.
November 18, 2024 at 8:44 PM
There’s this misconception that probability of diverging outcomes of alternative treatments is just a theoretical consideration
Here’s the probability of benefit (survival if treated early, mortality if not) estimated empirically.
Each bar shows the range of its possible values.
Here’s the probability of benefit (survival if treated early, mortality if not) estimated empirically.
Each bar shows the range of its possible values.
The types of questions we ask determine the types of answers we get. 👇🏻
November 18, 2024 at 8:27 PM
The types of questions we ask determine the types of answers we get. 👇🏻
Please don't miss @eliasbareinboim chapter on @yudapearl causal hierarchy.
I highly recommend it for the authors’ effort to give consistent notation, thoughtful examples, crisp statements. Such a powerful reading material that we can use in educational efforts.
I highly recommend it for the authors’ effort to give consistent notation, thoughtful examples, crisp statements. Such a powerful reading material that we can use in educational efforts.
November 18, 2024 at 8:08 PM
Please don't miss @eliasbareinboim chapter on @yudapearl causal hierarchy.
I highly recommend it for the authors’ effort to give consistent notation, thoughtful examples, crisp statements. Such a powerful reading material that we can use in educational efforts.
I highly recommend it for the authors’ effort to give consistent notation, thoughtful examples, crisp statements. Such a powerful reading material that we can use in educational efforts.
November 18, 2024 at 5:56 PM
My browsing of UBC bookstore got me this! @alxndrmlk.bsky.social
November 8, 2024 at 8:44 PM
My browsing of UBC bookstore got me this! @alxndrmlk.bsky.social