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SmartVoting.ca helps Canadians stop MAGA-style, far-right politics by voting strategically. Let’s work together on preventing Conservative wins and keeping Canada inclusive, democratic, and progressive.
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While we continue to parse the election data we can report our preliminary accuracy.
94% of the riding we predicted the winner correctly.
70% of the time we got the percentage the candidate was going to get in the riding correct.
More data to come at SmartVoting.ca
#cdnpoli
94% of the riding we predicted the winner correctly.
70% of the time we got the percentage the candidate was going to get in the riding correct.
More data to come at SmartVoting.ca
#cdnpoli
April 30, 2025 at 6:34 PM
While we continue to parse the election data we can report our preliminary accuracy.
94% of the riding we predicted the winner correctly.
70% of the time we got the percentage the candidate was going to get in the riding correct.
More data to come at SmartVoting.ca
#cdnpoli
94% of the riding we predicted the winner correctly.
70% of the time we got the percentage the candidate was going to get in the riding correct.
More data to come at SmartVoting.ca
#cdnpoli
SmartVoting.ca Final Federal Seat Projections. Decisive Liberal Majority. CPC Opposition. NDP loses party status.
FINAL FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 185 (215)
CPC: 124 (86)
BQ: 24 (26)
NDP: 9 (13)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 28, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
#cdnpoli #election #canada
FINAL FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 185 (215)
CPC: 124 (86)
BQ: 24 (26)
NDP: 9 (13)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 28, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
#cdnpoli #election #canada
April 28, 2025 at 12:49 PM
SmartVoting.ca Final Federal Seat Projections. Decisive Liberal Majority. CPC Opposition. NDP loses party status.
FINAL FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 185 (215)
CPC: 124 (86)
BQ: 24 (26)
NDP: 9 (13)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 28, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
#cdnpoli #election #canada
FINAL FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 185 (215)
CPC: 124 (86)
BQ: 24 (26)
NDP: 9 (13)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 28, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
#cdnpoli #election #canada
Running final numbers now
April 28, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Running final numbers now
In our penultimate update for the 2025 Federal Election. Liberal climb back up to above 190 seats.
Final update tomorrow morning.
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 192 (218)
CPC: 118 (87)
BQ: 23 (25)
NDP: 9 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 27, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
#cdnpoli #election #canada
Final update tomorrow morning.
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 192 (218)
CPC: 118 (87)
BQ: 23 (25)
NDP: 9 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 27, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
#cdnpoli #election #canada
April 27, 2025 at 7:08 PM
This election is like no other. In this short time we have had our site hit a screen 35 million times. This is an unbelievable number to us and we couldn’t have done it with our support.
#smartvoting #election2025 #canada
#smartvoting #election2025 #canada
April 26, 2025 at 8:29 PM
This election is like no other. In this short time we have had our site hit a screen 35 million times. This is an unbelievable number to us and we couldn’t have done it with our support.
#smartvoting #election2025 #canada
#smartvoting #election2025 #canada
We get a lot of feedback that “We don’t use/have riding polls.” While technically true, aggregates use pretty cool techniques to get these predictions.
It also works. Here is more info 👇🏻
It also works. Here is more info 👇🏻
April 26, 2025 at 8:20 PM
We get a lot of feedback that “We don’t use/have riding polls.” While technically true, aggregates use pretty cool techniques to get these predictions.
It also works. Here is more info 👇🏻
It also works. Here is more info 👇🏻
The juggling of seats continue between the majors but the LPC still holding onto a 185+ seat count going into the final weekend.
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 192 (215)
CPC: 119 (86)
BQ: 24 (27)
NDP: 7 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 25, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
#cdnpoli #election #canada
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 192 (215)
CPC: 119 (86)
BQ: 24 (27)
NDP: 7 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 25, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
#cdnpoli #election #canada
April 25, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Favourable polls from Léger (A+) and Nanos (A) for the Liberal regain the seats lost from the Mainstreet (A-) polls that went CPC.
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 195 (220)
CPC: 115 (84)
BQ: 22 (24)
NDP: 10 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 23, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
#cdnpoli #election #canada
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 195 (220)
CPC: 115 (84)
BQ: 22 (24)
NDP: 10 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 23, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
#cdnpoli #election #canada
April 23, 2025 at 3:23 PM
CPC takes two from the LPC in our latest update. But the Conservative vote continues to weaken nationwide meaning more is up for grabs.
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 189 (218)
CPC: 122 (86)
BQ: 23 (25)
NDP: 8 (11)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 22, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
#cdnpoli #election #canada
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 189 (218)
CPC: 122 (86)
BQ: 23 (25)
NDP: 8 (11)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 22, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
#cdnpoli #election #canada
April 22, 2025 at 7:50 PM
We continue to see tight races between the LPC, BQ and NDP resulting in a flip-flop of numbers. CPC number is still firm at 120.
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 191 (213)
CPC: 120 (91)
BQ: 23 (25)
NDP: 8 (11)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 21, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
#cdnpoli #election #canada
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 191 (213)
CPC: 120 (91)
BQ: 23 (25)
NDP: 8 (11)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 21, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
#cdnpoli #election #canada
April 21, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Are the Liberals dropping in the polls? Yes, slightly
Is that benefiting the CPC? No.
Polls always squeeze but the LPC is firmly ahead.
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 192 (214)
CPC: 120 (90)
BQ: 22 (23)
NDP: 8 (13)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 19, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
#cdnpoli #election #canada
Is that benefiting the CPC? No.
Polls always squeeze but the LPC is firmly ahead.
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 192 (214)
CPC: 120 (90)
BQ: 22 (23)
NDP: 8 (13)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 19, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
#cdnpoli #election #canada
April 19, 2025 at 3:12 PM
A visible vote split is starting to unfold across the country. The Bloc and the NDP have picked away at some Liberal leads in the country.
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 197 (220)
CPC: 118 (87)
BQ: 18 (19)
NDP: 9 (14)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 16, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
#cdnpoli #election #canada
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 197 (220)
CPC: 118 (87)
BQ: 18 (19)
NDP: 9 (14)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 16, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
#cdnpoli #election #canada
April 16, 2025 at 2:29 PM
As older polls that favour the CPC and NDP start to age out. It's becoming clear that the Liberals are extremely favoured. That being said, anything can happen.
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 206 (227)
CPC: 113 (85)
BQ: 16 (17)
NDP: 6 (11)
GPC: 2 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 13, 25 | MOE: +/- 10
#cdnpoli
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 206 (227)
CPC: 113 (85)
BQ: 16 (17)
NDP: 6 (11)
GPC: 2 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 13, 25 | MOE: +/- 10
#cdnpoli
April 13, 2025 at 9:08 PM
As older polls that favour the CPC and NDP start to age out. It's becoming clear that the Liberals are extremely favoured. That being said, anything can happen.
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 206 (227)
CPC: 113 (85)
BQ: 16 (17)
NDP: 6 (11)
GPC: 2 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 13, 25 | MOE: +/- 10
#cdnpoli
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 206 (227)
CPC: 113 (85)
BQ: 16 (17)
NDP: 6 (11)
GPC: 2 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 13, 25 | MOE: +/- 10
#cdnpoli
After a few days of stagnated numbers we finally get an update that moves the needle. What's notable is the Greens are surging on Vancouver Island
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 204 (225)
CPC: 115 (86)
BQ: 16 (18)
NDP: 7 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 5, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 204 (225)
CPC: 115 (86)
BQ: 16 (18)
NDP: 7 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 5, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
April 10, 2025 at 3:59 PM
After a few days of stagnated numbers we finally get an update that moves the needle. What's notable is the Greens are surging on Vancouver Island
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 204 (225)
CPC: 115 (86)
BQ: 16 (18)
NDP: 7 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 5, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 204 (225)
CPC: 115 (86)
BQ: 16 (18)
NDP: 7 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 5, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
FEDERAL POLL
LPC: 46%
CPC: 36%
NDP: 7%
BLOC: 7%
GPC: 2%
PPC: 1%
Angus Reid (B+) | April 6, 2025 | S = 2184 | MOE = 2.1%
#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
LPC: 46%
CPC: 36%
NDP: 7%
BLOC: 7%
GPC: 2%
PPC: 1%
Angus Reid (B+) | April 6, 2025 | S = 2184 | MOE = 2.1%
#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
April 7, 2025 at 11:22 PM
FEDERAL POLL
LPC: 46%
CPC: 36%
NDP: 7%
BLOC: 7%
GPC: 2%
PPC: 1%
Angus Reid (B+) | April 6, 2025 | S = 2184 | MOE = 2.1%
#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
LPC: 46%
CPC: 36%
NDP: 7%
BLOC: 7%
GPC: 2%
PPC: 1%
Angus Reid (B+) | April 6, 2025 | S = 2184 | MOE = 2.1%
#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
FEDERAL POLL
LPC: 45%
CPC: 39%
NDP: 7%
BLOC: 4%
GPC: 2%
PPC: 2%
Liaison (B) | April 6, 2025 | S = 1500 | MOE = 2.5%
#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
LPC: 45%
CPC: 39%
NDP: 7%
BLOC: 4%
GPC: 2%
PPC: 2%
Liaison (B) | April 6, 2025 | S = 1500 | MOE = 2.5%
#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
April 7, 2025 at 8:20 PM
FEDERAL POLL
LPC: 45%
CPC: 39%
NDP: 7%
BLOC: 4%
GPC: 2%
PPC: 2%
Liaison (B) | April 6, 2025 | S = 1500 | MOE = 2.5%
#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
LPC: 45%
CPC: 39%
NDP: 7%
BLOC: 4%
GPC: 2%
PPC: 2%
Liaison (B) | April 6, 2025 | S = 1500 | MOE = 2.5%
#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
FEDERAL POLL
LPC: 43%
CPC: 38%
NDP: 8%
BLOC: 7%
GPC: 3%
PPC: 2%
Nanos (A) | April 6, 2025 | S = 1265 | MOE = 2.8%
#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
LPC: 43%
CPC: 38%
NDP: 8%
BLOC: 7%
GPC: 3%
PPC: 2%
Nanos (A) | April 6, 2025 | S = 1265 | MOE = 2.8%
#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
April 7, 2025 at 8:17 PM
FEDERAL POLL
LPC: 43%
CPC: 38%
NDP: 8%
BLOC: 7%
GPC: 3%
PPC: 2%
Nanos (A) | April 6, 2025 | S = 1265 | MOE = 2.8%
#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
LPC: 43%
CPC: 38%
NDP: 8%
BLOC: 7%
GPC: 3%
PPC: 2%
Nanos (A) | April 6, 2025 | S = 1265 | MOE = 2.8%
#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
FEDERAL POLL
LPC: 44%
CPC: 40%
NDP: 8%
BLOC: 3%
GPC: 3%
PPC: 3%
Mainstreet (A-) | April 6, 2025 | S = 1240 | MOE = 2.5%
#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
LPC: 44%
CPC: 40%
NDP: 8%
BLOC: 3%
GPC: 3%
PPC: 3%
Mainstreet (A-) | April 6, 2025 | S = 1240 | MOE = 2.5%
#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
April 7, 2025 at 8:14 PM
FEDERAL POLL
LPC: 44%
CPC: 40%
NDP: 8%
BLOC: 3%
GPC: 3%
PPC: 3%
Mainstreet (A-) | April 6, 2025 | S = 1240 | MOE = 2.5%
#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
LPC: 44%
CPC: 40%
NDP: 8%
BLOC: 3%
GPC: 3%
PPC: 3%
Mainstreet (A-) | April 6, 2025 | S = 1240 | MOE = 2.5%
#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
FEDERAL POLL
LPC: 44%
CPC: 34%
NDP: 11%
BLOC: 5%
GPC: 4%
PPC: 2%
MQO (NR) | April 4 - 6, 2025 | S = 1627 | MOE = 2.5%
#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
LPC: 44%
CPC: 34%
NDP: 11%
BLOC: 5%
GPC: 4%
PPC: 2%
MQO (NR) | April 4 - 6, 2025 | S = 1627 | MOE = 2.5%
#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
April 7, 2025 at 8:10 PM
FEDERAL POLL
LPC: 44%
CPC: 34%
NDP: 11%
BLOC: 5%
GPC: 4%
PPC: 2%
MQO (NR) | April 4 - 6, 2025 | S = 1627 | MOE = 2.5%
#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
LPC: 44%
CPC: 34%
NDP: 11%
BLOC: 5%
GPC: 4%
PPC: 2%
MQO (NR) | April 4 - 6, 2025 | S = 1627 | MOE = 2.5%
#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 200 (218)
CPC: 120 (95)
BQ: 15 (17)
NDP: 7 (12)
GPC: 1 (1)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 5, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
(Seats with a strategic vote)
#canada #election #polls #election2025 #liberal #conservative #ndp #bloc #green
LPC: 200 (218)
CPC: 120 (95)
BQ: 15 (17)
NDP: 7 (12)
GPC: 1 (1)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 5, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
(Seats with a strategic vote)
#canada #election #polls #election2025 #liberal #conservative #ndp #bloc #green
April 7, 2025 at 5:41 PM
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION
LPC: 200 (218)
CPC: 120 (95)
BQ: 15 (17)
NDP: 7 (12)
GPC: 1 (1)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 5, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
(Seats with a strategic vote)
#canada #election #polls #election2025 #liberal #conservative #ndp #bloc #green
LPC: 200 (218)
CPC: 120 (95)
BQ: 15 (17)
NDP: 7 (12)
GPC: 1 (1)
PPC: 0 (0)
April 5, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
(Seats with a strategic vote)
#canada #election #polls #election2025 #liberal #conservative #ndp #bloc #green