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SmartVoting.ca
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SmartVoting.ca helps Canadians stop MAGA-style, far-right politics by voting strategically. Let’s work together on preventing Conservative wins and keeping Canada inclusive, democratic, and progressive.

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FEDERAL PROJECTIONS - June 15, 2025

LPC: 174
CPC: 140
BQ: 22
NDP: 6
GPC: 1

#politics #polling #canada #poll #cdnpoli #smartvoting
June 15, 2025 at 2:59 PM
While we continue to parse the election data we can report our preliminary accuracy.

94% of the riding we predicted the winner correctly.

70% of the time we got the percentage the candidate was going to get in the riding correct.

More data to come at SmartVoting.ca

#cdnpoli
April 30, 2025 at 6:34 PM
SmartVoting.ca Final Federal Seat Projections. Decisive Liberal Majority. CPC Opposition. NDP loses party status.

FINAL FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 185 (215)
CPC: 124 (86)
BQ: 24 (26)
NDP: 9 (13)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 28, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada
April 28, 2025 at 12:49 PM
Running final numbers now
April 28, 2025 at 12:35 PM
In our penultimate update for the 2025 Federal Election. Liberal climb back up to above 190 seats.

Final update tomorrow morning.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 192 (218)
CPC: 118 (87)
BQ: 23 (25)
NDP: 9 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 27, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada
April 27, 2025 at 7:08 PM
Seat counts tighten among progressive parties as we enter the final weekend.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 188 (217)
CPC: 119 (85)
BQ: 25 (26)
NDP: 10 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 26, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada
April 26, 2025 at 8:58 PM
This election is like no other. In this short time we have had our site hit a screen 35 million times. This is an unbelievable number to us and we couldn’t have done it with our support.

#smartvoting #election2025 #canada
April 26, 2025 at 8:29 PM
We get a lot of feedback that “We don’t use/have riding polls.” While technically true, aggregates use pretty cool techniques to get these predictions.

It also works. Here is more info 👇🏻
April 26, 2025 at 8:20 PM
The juggling of seats continue between the majors but the LPC still holding onto a 185+ seat count going into the final weekend.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 192 (215)
CPC: 119 (86)
BQ: 24 (27)
NDP: 7 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 25, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada
April 25, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Favourable polls from Léger (A+) and Nanos (A) for the Liberal regain the seats lost from the Mainstreet (A-) polls that went CPC.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 195 (220)
CPC: 115 (84)
BQ: 22 (24)
NDP: 10 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 23, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada
April 23, 2025 at 3:23 PM
CPC takes two from the LPC in our latest update. But the Conservative vote continues to weaken nationwide meaning more is up for grabs.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 189 (218)
CPC: 122 (86)
BQ: 23 (25)
NDP: 8 (11)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 22, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada
April 22, 2025 at 7:50 PM
We continue to see tight races between the LPC, BQ and NDP resulting in a flip-flop of numbers. CPC number is still firm at 120.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 191 (213)
CPC: 120 (91)
BQ: 23 (25)
NDP: 8 (11)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 21, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada
April 21, 2025 at 4:03 PM
The two polls from Mainstreet that favour the CPC didn't really hurt the aggregate. Liberals up 2 since yesterday.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 194 (216)
CPC: 120 (90)
BQ: 22 (23)
NDP: 6 (11)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 20, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada
April 20, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Are the Liberals dropping in the polls? Yes, slightly
Is that benefiting the CPC? No.

Polls always squeeze but the LPC is firmly ahead.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 192 (214)
CPC: 120 (90)
BQ: 22 (23)
NDP: 8 (13)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 19, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada
April 19, 2025 at 3:12 PM
A visible vote split is starting to unfold across the country. The Bloc and the NDP have picked away at some Liberal leads in the country.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 197 (220)
CPC: 118 (87)
BQ: 18 (19)
NDP: 9 (14)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 16, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #election #canada
April 16, 2025 at 2:29 PM
As older polls that favour the CPC and NDP start to age out. It's becoming clear that the Liberals are extremely favoured. That being said, anything can happen.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 206 (227)
CPC: 113 (85)
BQ: 16 (17)
NDP: 6 (11)
GPC: 2 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 13, 25 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli
April 13, 2025 at 9:08 PM
⚠️ RIDING POLLS ALERT ⚠️

We got some polls from Saskatchewan down to the riding level from a A rated pollster. The story here is telling for the state of this election. The fact that the Liberals are threatening Saskatoon is just insane.

#canada #polling #data #election
April 13, 2025 at 3:17 PM
Liberals continue to hold firm at ~200 seats and the NDP and Greens make gains in their strongholds.

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 203 (223)
CPC: 113 (86)
BQ: 16 (18)
NDP: 9 (13)
GPC: 2 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 11, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

#cdnpoli #canada #politics #election
April 11, 2025 at 4:26 PM
After a few days of stagnated numbers we finally get an update that moves the needle. What's notable is the Greens are surging on Vancouver Island

FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 204 (225)
CPC: 115 (86)
BQ: 16 (18)
NDP: 7 (12)
GPC: 1 (3)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 5, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10
April 10, 2025 at 3:59 PM
FEDERAL POLL

LPC: 46%
CPC: 36%
NDP: 7%
BLOC: 7%
GPC: 2%
PPC: 1%

Angus Reid (B+) | April 6, 2025 | S = 2184 | MOE = 2.1%

#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
April 7, 2025 at 11:22 PM
FEDERAL POLL

LPC: 45%
CPC: 39%
NDP: 7%
BLOC: 4%
GPC: 2%
PPC: 2%

Liaison (B) | April 6, 2025 | S = 1500 | MOE = 2.5%

#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
April 7, 2025 at 8:20 PM
FEDERAL POLL

LPC: 43%
CPC: 38%
NDP: 8%
BLOC: 7%
GPC: 3%
PPC: 2%

Nanos (A) | April 6, 2025 | S = 1265 | MOE = 2.8%

#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
April 7, 2025 at 8:17 PM
FEDERAL POLL

LPC: 44%
CPC: 40%
NDP: 8%
BLOC: 3%
GPC: 3%
PPC: 3%

Mainstreet (A-) | April 6, 2025 | S = 1240 | MOE = 2.5%

#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
April 7, 2025 at 8:14 PM
FEDERAL POLL

LPC: 44%
CPC: 34%
NDP: 11%
BLOC: 5%
GPC: 4%
PPC: 2%

MQO (NR) | April 4 - 6, 2025 | S = 1627 | MOE = 2.5%

#canada #polls #polldata #election2025 #politics
April 7, 2025 at 8:10 PM
FEDERAL SEAT PROJECTION

LPC: 200 (218)
CPC: 120 (95)
BQ: 15 (17)
NDP: 7 (12)
GPC: 1 (1)
PPC: 0 (0)

April 5, 2025 | MOE: +/- 10

(Seats with a strategic vote)

#canada #election #polls #election2025 #liberal #conservative #ndp #bloc #green
April 7, 2025 at 5:41 PM